A rose revolution in Armenia?

[xBaron Dants]

Well, I would guess most of you are aware of what occured in Georgia lately. Shevaradnadze was forced to resign and the people who staged this "rose revolution" should be in power pretty soon. (Their leader being Saakashvili, I think that's how you spell it, an armenian).

My question is, would you like to see such a revolution in Armenia?

I am personally opposed to this, as I don't see anyone else being a better alternative. The other choices at the presidential elections were the Demirchyan/Sargsyan clan, who are frankly just members of the same "khav" that profited from the corruption, and the socialist guy, Geghamyan, who was talking about some bloodshed that will occur if he was not elected, as the majority would rise and ask for him to be the prez or something, even if he was always a distant third in ANY poll.

So, anyone out there that can lead such a thing? Anyone who would be worth standing up for? Raffi Hovannisyan maybe?

[TigranJamharian]

i might support raffi is because he is from the US and has a completely different mindset and i am sure that he wouldnt be corrupt or anything and i actually think that he would make a very good president. but hovanisian actually threw his support behind demirchian when he was denied the right to run.

geghamyan is an idiot PERIOD

A rose revolution in Armenia seems impossible to me. The reason they were able to topple Shevarnadze so easily in Georgia was because he did not control all the state structures, the military for example, like kocharian does in Armenia. If the people did the same thing in Armenia i dont know if Kocharian would order violence but the military would in no way yield as Serzh sarkissian is very close to kocharian and so are all the other ministers because they all owe him a lot.

But as to the question whether i would LIKE to see a rose revolution i would have to say yes, as long as the guy coming in is someone as dedicated to the nation and ambitious as Saakashvilli. Frankly i am afraid of kocharian as he is doing a lot of things i dissaprove of #1 being restricting press freedom, for example shutting down A1+. His crackdown on the station simply for expressing different views was very blatant and needless.

[xBaron Dants]

Well, glad we agree about Geghamyan. I did not much about him prior to the election, but he seemed soooooo out of it. Even Sargsyan (who I hate) said that his threats of bloodshed were pure invention and they would never resort to violence. That was one of the only times that I had SOME respect for Aram Sargsyan.

Good point about Shevaradnadze's lack of control on institutions and especially the regions. He actually sent people to Azeri populated regions to tell them not to support the revolution, as there were many armenians involved in it. If that's not a desperate shot, I don't know what is.

My aunt who lives in Armenia, and who is at our house right now (on visit), and is, to put it lightly, VERY smart just told me about the parliament assassination. She said that during the 3-4 days following the attack, when Armenia was in complete turmoil, a huge sequence of events occured, which remain unexamined. For one, the army (led by then minister of defence Harutunyan I think) made some sort of manifesto. She doesn't remember what it was about, but it was, according to her, a clear sign that the military was attempting to control the country. She said that Armenia was at the brink of falling into a military dictatorship, and that we were lucky enough that Kocharian was able to handle the situation. This would also explain why a year or so later, Kocharian brought in a friend as minister of defence. Perhaps he had truly lost the support of the army. We still don't know.

[xBaron Dants]

And oh yes, I forgot the A1+ situation. That is a bloody stupid action. If this station is not allowed to operate, while so many others in support of the government are, it puts a huuuuge asterisk on Kocharian, and his way of doing business.

So, what do you think of Demirchyan and Aram Sargsyan? I'm personally sick of all the members of the Sargsyan family.

[TigranJamharian]

well i got to say that i actually liked demirchian during the race because he just seemed like such a fresh guy and i thought he really cared to reform the system and change things but then he showed his incompetency as a politician when he was unable to challenge the fraudulent polls and garner popular support i guess i backed off a bit and i guess you are right about the clan systems. As to Sargsyan i really dont have an opinion on the guy, he simply seemed to me as demirchians little man. i dont know i guess kocharian is a better alternative and right now he is the most experienced head of state in the caucasus so i hope he can use this to our advantage.

[xBaron Dants]

I remember picturing Demirchyan sitting at a negociation table with (then alive) Heydar Aliyev. I felt much more comfortable knowing that it was Kocharyan at his place. Now that one Aliyev is gone and a dumber one is in, I feel even better about Kocharian being our president.

I must say that I am very upbeat about the new georgian government. They are promising better relations with Armenia, and as much as I've learned to never trust the Georgians, I really want to believe it.

In a way, I guess I am a little jealous, and I'd also like to have these young, honest, patriotic armenians coming to power, but there are none that are really making any signs.

But then again, maybe it is safer to go with the government we have until a resolution of the Artsakh conflict.

In any event, I think that there will be some signs of "cleanliness" coming from our government, as they will now start fearing a rose revolution themselves.

Now about Aram Sargsyan. Don't forget that he is the owner (or president) of a cement factory, and didn't pay any taxes until his late brother forced him to. He also reported an annual income of 100 000$. I don't see this man representing the "new generation". He was actually Prime Minister for some time, but then started attacking Kocharian, and lost his job.

[dstyle]

i doubt there would be a rose revolution in armenia, as baron was saying todays leaders have to much power in the military and theyd fight. the whole civil war thing should never ever happen with us. ok

[xBaron Dants]

Originally posted by dstyle i doubt there would be a rose revolution in armenia, as baron was saying todays leaders have to much power in the military and theyd fight. the whole civil war thing should never ever happen with us. ok

Ooh, never would I even ask a question about civil war. That would ruin us forever. Which is why the thought of doing a "peaceful revolution" is so dangerous, because you don't know if the "other side" will accept to hand power over so peacefully.

[TigranJamharian]

This is unrelated but it seems to me that Armenia is in a very very dangerous delicate situation right now.

#1 Azerbaijan's state treasury is swelling with billions in foreign investments in oil and they will become even richer once the btc pipeline begins operating and it seems that they can easily overtake Armenia militarily if this goes on and economically they are also leaving us far behind they would be even further ahead of us if they didnt have to support 800000 refugees in their borders until this day.

#2 Turkey is thinking of building a railroad from kars to georgia and if they do this then there is very little impetus for them to open the border with Armenia because the main reason besides from foreign pressure, for them doing this was to get the economies of their eastern regions running. If the railroad is built then Armenia is in deep xxxx.

#3 There seems no more talk of the Abkhazia section of the Georgian railroad opening because the new government is gonna take some time settling the issues up there. So basically this together with #2 is holding back Armenia's economy very much. I believe that if the georgian railroad was opened to russia and turkey opened their border than Armenia's exports would double in 2 years or so and the economy would have a huge surge.

#4 Armenia is under increasing foreign pressure to close down Metsamor and the plant is becoming more and more dangerouse. if Metsamor were to be closed Armenia might go back to circa 94 years with constant blackouts and all and this could cripple the economy and screw up the country even more.

#5 We have shunned American military too long and now there is talk of US bases in Azerbaijan the implications of this are obvious and also Russia has for a long time not had too much influence and i think we need to be looking for alternatives.

#6 Our telecommunications sector is far behind those of Georgia and Azerbaijan. Armentel has sat on its comfortable monopoly for way too long. I recently found a website that shows the wireless coverage of nations around the world and looking at the maps it showed that despite its small size, only about 40%-50% of Armenia is covered while neighboring Azerbaijan and Georgia each have near 80% coverage. All this while Armentel claims to have invested hundreds of millions while all it has done is hinder the development and overcharge people. The government xxxxed up big time giving these idiots a monopoly.

Now i hope that all of these issues are somehow addressed by the government in the new year and i wish Armenia and all of the people a happy new year and i hope all the luck to everyone in this forum and Armenians around the world, lets all have a great year 2004

[dstyle]

Originally posted by Baron Dants Ooh, never would I even ask a question about civil war. That would ruin us forever. Which is why the thought of doing a "peaceful revolution" is so dangerous, because you don't know if the "other side" will accept to hand power over so peacefully.

ya exactly. i dont think armenians would take well to peaceful revolutions

[xBaron Dants]

#1 - We can't do much versus foreign investment in azeri oil except finding an industry where we can excel. As for refugees, I think Armenia has the highest (or second highest) refugee rate in the world, so it has had an impact on us too.
I do not fear a war by Azerbaidjan. The Aliyev clan has too much to lose, and would rather just sit there and rake in the billions. Only good thing about major foreign investments now is that the money won't go to making the country any stronger. It'll just be the same corrupt officials getting richer.
Also, starting a war might get Azerbaidjan (or Armenia, or both) expulsed from the council of Europe, and nobody wishes that to happen.

#2 - We can only hope that our relations with Georgia will strengthen. As I've said, we shouldn't trust the Geogians, but given the choice between Georgia and Turkey... AND WHY ARE WE NOT EXPANDING OUR TIES WITH IRAN? Reputation or not, this country has been one of our strongest allies these last years. A route through Iran can open Armenia to many many new destinations.

#3 - Once again, it's up to the new georgian government. With Saakashvili being armenian and all, who knows? They have already promised a huuuuge decrease in taxes on products coming to and leaving Armenia through Georgia.

#4 - We can only pray that instead of xxxxxing, the Europeans would do something to either ensure Medzamor's safety, or help us find another source of power. I did read an article about some Japanese company that will be investing in some energy source in Armenia. I can't recall what it was about. But until a new source is found, Medzamor must keep running. I hadn't heard about the security thing you said. I have always read that security was always top notch, and it's obviously not a sector where the government can cut money from.

#5 - Downright scary. America should just stay out. Russia's eventual reaction and the effects it can have on Armenia are too much of a mystery too even dare to think about. We can just hope for the best......

#6 - Damn those Armentel greeks. And our government has FINALLY decided to take some action. Many suits going on now, each side suing the other one. We can only hope that Armenia will get the better end of it. Even if it doesn't, we are at least sure that the Armentel folk are leaving for good. Their internet prices are just crazy. For a country which has good potential in IT, better telecommunications is an absolute MUST.

Well, I wrote this in my shirt, suit tie and boxers (pants are being ironed), so I will drink a toast for Armenia tonight, and for all Armenians everywhere. May better days await us in 2004!

[TigranJamharian]

about saakashvilli being Armenian, i have to say that i doubt that. and even if he was dont expect him to play to the Armenians because he is trying to convince the Georgians he isnt Armenian and in the process it is very unlikely that he will take a too favorable position with the Armenians because then that would raise suspicions in Georgia even more about his ethnicity. Zurab Zhvania has admitted that he is half Armenian and people also are saying that Burjandze is Armenian but who the hell knows. that would be hilarious if the top 3 people running Georgia turned out to be Armenian.

[dstyle]

Ya i heard the top two people running for the Georgian presidency are half armenian or something, and they both are proud that they are. Imagine 3 of the 4 caucus presidents are armenian that would be great lol.

[xBaron Dants]

Thing I heard about Saakashvili was that his name is actually rived from Sahak, which would make sense. But then again, as you said, with so many rumours going around, who knows what to believe?

These new georgian guys remind me somewhat of the young charismatic armenians we had back in the late 80s, early 90s.. Ter Petrosyan, Sarkisian, Sirateghyan, yevayln. These guys really did have something going for them...sigh..

[xBaron Dants]

Also, it will be interesting to see how Saakashvili et al will act vis-à-vis Moscow. They are clearly very pro-American, but will they try to at least conciliate a little with Russia?

I fear they might turn out to be mere puppets of the US foreign policy.

[Shahumyan]

Originally posted by dstyle Ya i heard the top two people running for the Georgian presidency are half armenian or something, and they both are proud that they are. Imagine 3 of the 4 caucus presidents are armenian that would be great lol.

the opposition are claiming he is, but he saying he definately is not, not much pride there...:confused: