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Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

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  • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

    Originally posted by Haykakan View Post
    I generally agree with Hakob as most of his posts make sense but I cant say I agree with this post. According to that post Russia should be running Anatolia as the Greeks, Armenians, Assyrians..were all willing to fight. In places like Chechnia there aren't too many nonchechens wiling to fight, Russia should not be ruling. In reality we have the opposite. If you bring up the Bolshevik revolution as a excuse then yeh maybe that makes sense but then again the Russia/Turkey struggle is far longer then that and would have been long decided by that time if it was based on the local populations will to resist. Our own willingness to fight for our own cause has been questionable at best and this can merit Hakob's argument somewhat but we were not the only minority in the region to pick up arms over the years against the Turk. I see our weakness every day in the diaspora communities as they are willing to do things in our communities to lets say promote genocide recognition along with their own self recognition but hardly anything gets done that even has the potential of producing tangible results in relation to nation building. I blame this on the fact that we Armenians have not had a nation of our own for a long time but perhaps we were that bad when we did have our own kingdoms to? Just look at how much energy and resources are being spent on vilifying the modern state of Armenia and how many Armenians are so willing to jump on this bandwagon(most of whom have never even visited Armenia). Building a country doesn't just happen. You need to plan and work hard to execute that plan. We Armenians do not have a Nation mentality, hell most of us do not really believe in a strong central government period. Even when strong foreign central governments have whipped the floors with our blood over the centuries we refuse to build our own strong government and then blame the Russians, blame the Turks, Blame Santa.. for our troubles.


    Haikakan jan, history backs my ideas about Russo/Turkish wars and indigenous populations support for Russians.
    First of all, when Peter the great first tried to advance to Baku, he got defeated. Then years later he took it but had to abandon shortly because of Muslim militants kept blocking supply roads and were in constant combat.
    He then tried to advance to Crimea and was defeated by Crimean tatars. Only when local Greek,Armenian and growing Slav population united in support of Russian empire, Russia was able to defeat Ottomans and take Crimea, but with only heavy support of Kazaks (non Russians too).
    Russian navy had several battles in Black Sea against ottomans and lost to superior ottoman navy. Only when Russian navy was reformed with heavy recruiting of Greek, Bulgar, Romanian, Armenian and Serbian seamen as midrank officers was Russian navy able to defeat ottoman navy.
    Russian army did not dare to cross Prut river untill Moldavians gave guarantees of 20000 volunteers joining.
    Same way, into Bulgaria and balkans. Russian army would not move a centimeter before mass uprisings would not start against Ottoman Empire. Serbs, Greeks.
    Russia used them entirely, sometimes still running out of manpower and materiel, often agreeing to armistices with ottomans and leaving those populations helplessly alone against ottoman ire and jataghan.
    Look into all Balkan wars.
    In Caucasus, It took many decades of heavy defeats.
    Caucasian war lasted an entire century. From 1785, when Russia decided to subjugate Muslim khanates till 1878, when final resistance was put out in Chechnya. Even in WWII Stalin had to exile entire Tatar, Chechnian and part of Abkhazian, Dagestani, Avar and other Muslim populations to Altai in order to secure the Caucasus and Crimea.
    Russia would not even dream of entering into Anatolia without Armenian Support and could not have gotten to Van after defeat in Crimean war and severed or weak land connection in northern Caucasus in 19th century.
    The only factor that kept Russian Armies from repeated defeats and humiliations and actually helped in keeping an image of empire and strength in southern Caucasus and northeastern Anatolia was Armenians.
    Constant replenishment of manpower lost with more resilient and determined fighters. Feeding Russian Army when there was a fiew hundred kilometers gap between front regiments and closest Russian supply posts.
    I am not even speaking of our role in Russo/Persian war.
    English envoys traveling to eastern Anatolia in 1820-40s kept sending warnings to Buckingham palace of lack of control by ottomans of entire Van area that was populated by Revolting Armenians and dangers of Russian expansion to those areas soon or later which would follow by Russian ports in Mediterranean.
    There is a line of thread going through history, connecting those facts and then Berlin conference, where Europe succeeded in fooling us into believing in obtaining our rights by europe's help and later the genocide where Europe helped Turks openly or covertly in wyping out eastern Anatolia of Armenians.
    Our existence in any area had become synonymous with opportunity and guarantee of Russia's advancement.

    We have kept our eyes shut to our own history.
    Look what is happening now. History is repeating. All 102nd base cannot exist without Armenian members and Armenian involvement in border. Do you think it is only happening now because there is Armenia as a country?
    In 18th, 19th century too, how many decrees by our church and leaders has sent waves of volunteers and materiel in keeping Russian armies existence there?
    There is the history and Russia perfectly is aware of it in establishing joint commands and units today, in anticipation of coming conflicts with turkey and NATO.
    History is repeating itself. If war breaks out, Russian soldier is not going to stand up like Armenian soldier. This is not Donbas for Russians. But is Sardarapat for us. Moscow knows this and that is why is investing military on this line of Defence.
    In case of war, a couple of hundred thousand Armenians are going to fight like mad in here.
    Russia itself can never generate a couple hundred thousand soldiers fighting like that in every 300 km segment of it's vast border or front lines. It can do so only in small (relatively) heartland area.
    Last edited by Hakob; 12-17-2016, 05:08 PM.

    Comment


    • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

      Yes history is indeed repeating itself. We are once again being lured by the west only this time much of our population is already there. Our forums and media are full of characters like our Vrej1915 trying hard to bring us a final Armenian genocide. What do you think will happen if these forces push Russia out of caucuses? The same thing that is happening in Syria and Iraq, we will watch the Turks waltz in and take what is left. Who stopped the Turk from overrunning Syria? The Syrian army was losing even with the full support of Iran. Russia was the deciding factor. I very much fear for the future of our small country as the forces opposing us are so great. I also fear our own inability to learn from the past and repeat our mistakes yet again. Flirting with NATO, almost joining the EU are sure signs that we have not learned our lessons. Something that does not add up with your argument is the fact that Russian policy has not backed the growth of Armenia. If their success is based on the native population then why would Russia be supporting the depopulation (along with the west)? There are things in your story that just do not add up. I think there are grand plans already set in motion for the region and non of them seem to include Armenia. Neither the west nor the east nor Russia, and surely not the diaspora, are interested in building a nation called Armenia or its future. Russia is resurgent in large part because of Chinese cooperation yet even the Chinese do not seem to care about Armenia and are probably not going to make us part of their major trade route to the west. Russia, China, Iran could have all put pressure on the Azeris but they will be putting pressure on us instead. Non of this jives with your story Hakob jan. None of this smells good for Armenia. I am watching hopes and opportunities dwindling away for our country and no one wants to do a dam thing about it. When all the trade routes are built and done with all of them essentially bypassing us, Armenia will be left in a situation where she will be even less competitive then she is now. This will mean our end and this is where things are now going. We must do something to change this trajectory. As more time passes I become less confident in Armenian leadership across the board. Why are we not seeing this? Why are we not doing anything? I guess we are content to just become fat and stupid.
      Hayastan or Bust.

      Comment


      • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

        Haykakan, your pessimism is overblown.
        Actually things are not that bad. The world is going to balance in a multipolar format.
        Also, flirting with west in my opinion is not a bad thing. It just has to be a part of our multidirectional policies which will work against blockade and isolation.
        We have to achieve a level, where we can make the west believe that If needed, we can play as important role for the west as for the Russians in the region.
        It is true that west is trying to push Russia out. But it never wants to replace the vacuum with Turkish or Iranian power. west would like to controll the area itself.
        And also, we should keep our relationship with Russians as close as we can as long Russia performs its role for us. No more gimmicks.
        This policy is possible.
        You should know that trade routes you're talking about are never going to benefit small nations like us, Georgians or Azeris. Not even turkey (nobody will let Turks tip the balance).
        Our needs are much smaller and our requirements for success much easier to obtain.
        Main issue is security, and so far so good. We need to play it as it goes.
        Most important issue is our internal corruption and social conditions.
        By fixing this we can guarantee continuos existence of Armenia.
        Last edited by Hakob; 12-17-2016, 10:35 PM.

        Comment


        • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

          Originally posted by Haykakan View Post
          Yes history is indeed repeating itself. We are once again being lured by the west only this time much of our population is already there. Our forums and media are full of characters like our Vrej1915 trying hard to bring us a final Armenian genocide. What do you think will happen if these forces push Russia out of caucuses? The same thing that is happening in Syria and Iraq, we will watch the Turks waltz in and take what is left. Who stopped the Turk from overrunning Syria? The Syrian army was losing even with the full support of Iran. Russia was the deciding factor. I very much fear for the future of our small country as the forces opposing us are so great. I also fear our own inability to learn from the past and repeat our mistakes yet again. Flirting with NATO, almost joining the EU are sure signs that we have not learned our lessons. Something that does not add up with your argument is the fact that Russian policy has not backed the growth of Armenia. If their success is based on the native population then why would Russia be supporting the depopulation (along with the west)? There are things in your story that just do not add up. I think there are grand plans already set in motion for the region and non of them seem to include Armenia. Neither the west nor the east nor Russia, and surely not the diaspora, are interested in building a nation called Armenia or its future. Russia is resurgent in large part because of Chinese cooperation yet even the Chinese do not seem to care about Armenia and are probably not going to make us part of their major trade route to the west. Russia, China, Iran could have all put pressure on the Azeris but they will be putting pressure on us instead. Non of this jives with your story Hakob jan. None of this smells good for Armenia. I am watching hopes and opportunities dwindling away for our country and no one wants to do a dam thing about it. When all the trade routes are built and done with all of them essentially bypassing us, Armenia will be left in a situation where she will be even less competitive then she is now. This will mean our end and this is where things are now going. We must do something to change this trajectory. As more time passes I become less confident in Armenian leadership across the board. Why are we not seeing this? Why are we not doing anything? I guess we are content to just become fat and stupid.
          Cut it out with the funeral will you?

          Comment


          • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

            Why is it so hard for the russosceptics to admit that russia had something to do with the fact that armenia exists today. Not to belittle the work armenians did to preserve the country of course, but its still a simple fact that they cant grasp. Its like they have some tinfoil hat that blocks any information that doesnt go along with their line of logic.

            Comment


            • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

              Originally posted by arakeretzig View Post
              Why is it so hard for the russosceptics to admit that russia had something to do with the fact that armenia exists today. Not to belittle the work armenians did to preserve the country of course, but its still a simple fact that they cant grasp. Its like they have some tinfoil hat that blocks any information that doesnt go along with their line of logic.
              Armenia does exist today because of Russia. Russia did not do that for Armenians, it did it for Russia.

              Comment


              • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

                Originally posted by HyeSocialist View Post
                Armenia does exist today because of Russia. Russia did not do that for Armenians, it did it for Russia.
                Armenia exists because there are Armenians there.

                Russia did not invent Armenia.

                If Russia is so generous why does it not give independance to all the nationalities in Russia.

                The reality is historic events made it impossible for Russia to hold on to countries such as Armenia, Georgia etc.

                We wont talk about the Turkey - Bolsheviks coperation to wipe out Armenian people and state.

                .
                Politics is not about the pursuit of morality nor what's right or wrong
                Its about self interest at personal and national level often at odds with the above.
                Great politicians pursue the National interest and small politicians personal interests

                Comment


                • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

                  Originally posted by Achemish View Post
                  Obviously they aren't a match compared to Russia, we aren't really analyzing the conflict between the two, we're just using it to see Russia's effectiveness. Regardless of efficiency Russia wins, but you can still use the conflict to see how effective Russia's forces currently are.
                  i think its wrong to compare Russians before reforms (2010) and now, back then in 2008 they used T-62 against Georgians))) btw those vratsis are most weak country in caucasus we could break theyr 30k army in hours nors not days.. but, we need open borders, thats why we will be without our Javakhq long time

                  Comment


                  • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

                    Originally posted by londontsi View Post
                    Armenia exists because there are Armenians there.

                    Russia did not invent Armenia.

                    If Russia is so generous why does it not give independance to all the nationalities in Russia.

                    The reality is historic events made it impossible for Russia to hold on to countries such as Armenia, Georgia etc.

                    We wont talk about the Turkey - Bolsheviks coperation to wipe out Armenian people and state.

                    .
                    he has some point, many "west intelected" armos hate russia and whants Armenia without russkies, by forgetting couple of big facts, we armenians are godfathers to russians since we gave them a beautifull religion, and in 1918 they gave us a an independence state... by wiping out russians from Armenia means we will lose Artsakh!

                    Comment


                    • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

                      Originally posted by HyeFighter2 View Post
                      he has some point, many "west intelected" armos hate russia and whants Armenia without russkies, by forgetting couple of big facts, we armenians are godfathers to russians since we gave them a beautifull religion, and in 1918 they gave us a an independence state... by wiping out russians from Armenia means we will lose Artsakh!
                      It is very sad when our youth do not know our history.

                      I would not blame them but blame the older generation who are ignorant of our history to pass on to our youth.

                      It is important to understand the meaning of an independant state.

                      Armenia from November 1920 until September 21, 1991 was as independent as California is now or Florida in relation to the country of USA.

                      If you are refering to the first republic declared 28th of May 1918 it was not the Russians who gave us independance.
                      Haven't you heard of Sardarapat, Bash Aparan, Garakilisa etc.

                      Maybe I should blame the youth as well, since its all available at your fingertips through Google unlike 25- 30 years ago.

                      .
                      Politics is not about the pursuit of morality nor what's right or wrong
                      Its about self interest at personal and national level often at odds with the above.
                      Great politicians pursue the National interest and small politicians personal interests

                      Comment

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