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Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

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  • Azerbaijan lost 50% of its GDP in 2 years

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      • As their GDP plummets and oil fails to make any meaningful recovery, they will not only fail to buy new weaponry, but they will sag under the load of maintaining all their shiny new toys. Their cutting edge equipment requires specialists to maintain and repair, and there are sole source part suppliers that can charge a premium as they lack economies of scale. The more these idiots fire their rockets at hillsides, the faster they get to depletion. Equipment without ammo, operators, or backup supplies is as good as useless.

        Originally posted by Sukhoi22 View Post
        Azerbaijan lost 50% of its GDP in 2 years

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          • Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army






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              • ngadetsik mer deghagan askere posta arel bayts jnjel? inchvor lav pataskhana grel, asuma vor mer tntesutyune kaki bana u vor rusastanyna gakhvats. hedo asuma vor erank miljarderov fond unen haduk tens jamanaki hamar. Hedakrkira ughaki inchya jnjel.

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                • Originally posted by arakeretzig View Post
                  ngadetsik mer deghagan askere posta arel bayts jnjel? inchvor lav pataskhana grel, asuma vor mer tntesutyune kaki bana u vor rusastanyna gakhvats. hedo asuma vor erank miljarderov fond unen haduk tens jamanaki hamar. Hedakrkira ughaki inchya jnjel.
                  et nuyn ban@ asacin yerpvor iranc pogh@ karjezrkver, bayc bolorsal tesank vonc et fond@ voj mi bani ogtakar cheghav.

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                  • Originally posted by Aslanov
                    These kind of posts are ridiculous because you are talking about it vis-a-vis Armenia, who doesn't even have a economy to speak of and survives off Russia. And it's just that, a temporary "survival".

                    There is the Shahdeniz 2 and other new natural gas export projects which hasn't even started yet. And yes, the "fond" has tens of billions in reserves. As for oil prices and their "meaningfulness", they are currently about 50 USD a barrel. Azerbaijan's state budget are based on the price of 40 USD a barrel, which actually means surplus.

                    As for what you have posted, assuming it's true, did you bother to check other oil producing countries? Russia from 2 trillion to 1 trillion for instance, and Algeria, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Qatar. I guess the same logic should be used for these countries?
                    Azerbaijan's economy and military is propped up by oil money. Azerbaijan would be in a worse off economic situation than Armenia and Georgia had it not had the massive windfall from oil. Fortunately for Armenia that Aliyev has squandered most of that money. How much Sofaz has in its fund is debatable, a lot of the information that comes from Azeri sources is difficult to monitor and most of us observing go by assuming the predictions of 4-5 years ago are following their trajectory. And that trajectory was an optimistic one.

                    Even when Shah Deniz 2 comes online, I doubt that they will ever recover the $45bln they sunk into it. The Turks in Central Asia don't want to play ball with Azerbaijan.

                    I will concede that Armenia's economy is strongly linked to Russia and that it is not competitive at all. But that has a lot to do with being pressured into Moscow's orbit because the Azeris have been arming themselves with oil money. If Armenia didn't have to deal with Azerbaijan, it wouldn't have to be forced into selling off all of its assets to Moscow. We would have had a DCFTA with the Euros and have had already attracted massive US investment.

                    And that's ultimately where I feel Armenia will outlast and begin overtaking Azerbaijan. Armenia is forced to build an actual economy in the worse of economic situations. Azerbaijan hasn't even begun doing that, and all the work that they think they've done is coming apart now that the oil money is coming apart.

                    In 10 years, once Azerbaijan is engulfed in Civil War, Armenia will be churning out market driven companies.

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                    • Originally posted by Aslanov
                      There is the Shahdeniz 2 and other new natural gas export projects which hasn't even started yet. And yes, the "fond" has tens of billions in reserves. As for oil prices and their "meaningfulness", they are currently about 50 USD a barrel. Azerbaijan's state budget are based on the price of 40 USD a barrel, which actually means surplus.
                      There is a thread "azerbaijan oil" on this forum where you can check how Russia and turkey put a permanent plug on the azeri gas export from the pipeline that is still under construction. Most likely you will never see any profits in this lifetime. Oil prices have been floating around $50 for two years now. Your government have been dumping around $4 to 8 billion a year trying to bailout the "economy". No one knows the true assets values in Sofaz. Something we will never know coming from a dictatorial regime that is draining the country's assets (Panama Papers). Chances are there is no liquid assets in the fund. We have seen how your central bank went bankrupt and defaulted on the bond holders. Your country has a year or two with oil prices at around $50 before all hell breaks loose. Thanks for posting! We would like the opposite views.

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