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Regional geopolitics

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  • Re: Regional geopolitics

    Syria conflict: Why Azaz is so important for Turkey and the Kurds
    By Selin Girit
    BBC News, Istanbul
    18 February 2016

    Turkey is facing mounting criticism for shelling Kurdish forces across the border in northern Syria.
    The Turkish government has said its troops were responding - in line with their terms of engagement - to fire from members of the Popular Protection Units (YPG) as the militia advanced on the Syrian rebel-held town of Azaz, just 7km (4 miles) from the frontier.
    But the international community is not convinced.
    The US, France and EU have called on Turkey to hold fire, while the UN Security Council has urged it to "comply with international law".

    Earlier this week, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said the shelling had succeeded in halting the YPG advance on Azaz and promised the "harshest reaction" if it tried to march on the town again.
    "We will not allow Azaz to fall," he declared, adding that "the whole world should know this".
    Supply route
    So why is this small town so significant for Turkey?

    "Azaz and its surrounding area are very important for Turkey's national security and the future of the Syrian war," says Can Acun, a researcher from the Turkish pro-government think tank SETA.
    "This area is on the land corridor stretching from the Turkish border to the city of Aleppo," he adds. "So both for humanitarian aid to go through and for the rebel forces to hold on to the area, Azaz is of strategic importance."
    But this supply route to Aleppo was severed on 3 February as a result of a government offensive, backed by Russian air strikes, that broke a rebel siege of two towns south of Azaz.
    Since then, the government advance northwards towards the border has continued, while the YPG has exploited the situation and begun pushing eastwards from their enclave around Afrin, taking the Menagh airbase and the town of Tal Rifaat from the rebels.

    "The Azaz-Aleppo supply route does not function any longer," says journalist Cengiz Candar, who thinks the strategic importance of Azaz for the Turkish government is the result of other concerns.
    "Turkey wants to portray this area to the US and the international coalition as somewhere they also can act against the Islamic State group. Furthermore, [if they capture it] the Kurds can join their enclaves along the border, which Turkey sees as a security threat," Mr Candar says.
    Turkey views the YPG, the military wing of the Syrian Democratic Union Party (PYD), as allied to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has carried out a decades-long armed campaign in Turkish territory.
    The PKK is listed as a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the EU and US. But Washington perceives the YPG and the PYD as the only effective force against IS on the ground in Syria.
    Syrian Kurdish YPG militia fighters south of Kobane (27 December 2015)Image copyrightReuters
    Image caption
    The YPG is a crucial ally of the US-led coalition against Islamic State militants in Syria
    Kurdish groups now control most of the Syrian border with Turkey, with only a 100km (62-mile) stretch remaining from Azaz to the IS-held town of Jarablus.
    "Azaz is a symbol for Turkey," says Fabrice Balanche from the Washington Institute For Near East Policy.
    "If the Kurds take Azaz, then they could join the land gap between their two enclaves, Kobane and Afrin. Prime Minister Davutoglu fears that if the Kurds capture Azaz, they could start a big offensive from Kobane to the west and from Afrin to the east," he explains.
    But Cengiz Candar believes the YPG could join the enclaves without taking control of Azaz.
    Border control
    The demographic structure of Azaz is of importance to Turkey as well, since along with Arabs and Kurds, ethnic Turkmens live in the area too.
    "Azaz is also of key significance because of the support provided for rebel groups from within Turkey," says Fabrice Balanche.


    "If the Kurds capture Azaz, the rebel groups will not have an entry point into Syria. That's Russia's strategy. Very simple - let the Kurds take control of the border area and cut Turkey from Aleppo."
    On Tuesday, the pro-government Turkish newspaper Sabah reported that about 500 rebels from Idlib province had travelled via Turkey to Azaz in the past few days.
    So would Turkey risk getting involved unilaterally in the Syrian war, for the sake of protecting Azaz?
    Turkish Defence Minister Ismet Yilmaz recently made it clear that there were no plans to send ground troops into Syria.
    A Turkish official speaking to the BBC also reiterated that Turkey did not intend to act unilaterally unless there were major changes on the ground, but that it was trying to convince the US-led coalition against IS to send troops in.


    "I think if Turkey and the Gulf countries are seriously determined, they can convince the US to change its position," says Can Acun.
    "Such a step could provide a safe zone for [displaced Syrians] too, and could well get the support of the EU which has been facing an overwhelming refugee crisis," he says.
    However, Fabrice Balanche thinks Washington is not interested in getting dragged further into the Syrian conflict, and that the proxy war would continue instead.
    "The US wants to keep the Kurds by its side. But Washington knows if Ankara continues with the shelling, then the Kurds will shift towards Russia," he says. "So the US needs to negotiate between Turkey and the Kurds. But it's difficult because the US is weak at the moment - it's the election year."
    "The Turks will probably wait until next year for a new US administration that would get more involved in Syria and more aggressive with Russia. Probably, they are dreaming of a new Ronald Reagan who says: 'America is back'," Mr Balanche says.

    Comment


    • Re: Regional geopolitics

      7 more askers bit the dust today.

      BOMB IN SOUTHEAST TURKEY KILLS 7 SECURITY FORCE MEMBERS

      13:27, 18 Feb 2016
      Siranush Ghazanchyan

      A bomb detonated by remote control killed seven Turkish security
      force members travelling in a military vehicle in southeast Turkey
      on Thursday, security sources said, a day after a car bomb attack in
      the capital Ankara killed 28 people, Today's Zaman reports.

      The blast hit the armored vehicle on the highway linking Diyarbakır,
      the largest city in the mainly Kurdish southeast, to the district
      of Lice. Sources had previously said the explosion hit a convoy
      of vehicles.

      https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2...-2Dmembers_&d=
      General Antranik (1865-1927): “I am not a nationalist. I recognize only one nation, the nation of the oppressed.”

      Comment


      • Re: Regional geopolitics

        Originally posted by Eddo211 View Post
        Wanted that clarified.......Israel wants Syria fall to terrorists to cut the support line from Iran to Syria to Hezbollah to Hamas. The Zionist want to built bases in Syria and its using Kurds to its means. The Arabs would love to see Iran fall.
        Russia knows if Syria falls its national security will be at risk......besides other things.
        --- cut support line from Iran to Syria ---
        Agree completely but I think it's only part of why Israel wants to do this.
        The line is from Iran to Iraq to Syria to Lebanon. If these countries from Iran to Lebanon can unite as a cooperative economic bloc, that becomes the powerhouse of the region. If one connects Hayastan to this and the implied connection to Russia, west and all conniving lackeys are illiminated from hegemonist goals.
        The west et al has traditionally never been able to penetrate these countries. Hence the introduction of chaos.
        If the west/sood/Arab/yahood have been dealing duplicity with extreme malice and fraud, as we all know they have and are, does anyone think they are going to change and become honest brokers? LOL.
        The west et al doesn't want cooperation, they want control. --- the end ---.
        Turc says not going to invade ... I don't believe that. Reports say 500 ARMED just crossed from turc to Syria. Turc / saud HAVE to get more fighters/weapons in Syria close to turc boarder or their terrorist proxies are going to continue getting stomped. No alternative.
        The disagreements between west and turc are for show. USA, all west, sood/yahood/turc are complicit in introducing chaos to this region and have known each others moves.
        This is a full proxie war. The lines are drawn.
        HARK

        Comment


        • Re: Regional geopolitics

          Another Good Jew and Bad Jew mind games policy.

          "Meretz Leader Accuses Yisrael Beiteinu of Being Foreign Agents of Azerbaijan
          Zehava Galon says Yisrael Beiteinu supports interests of Azeri national fuel company and actively works to prevent Israel from officially recognizing Armenian genocide."

          http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.704010

          Comment


          • Re: Regional geopolitics

            U.S. has asked Russia not to attack special forces in Syria: military
            By News Desk
            19/02/2016

            The United States has told Russia broad areas in which U.S. special forces are operating in Syria and asked them not to strike there, U.S. military officials said on Thursday. The move marks a step up in U.S.-Russian military coordination in Syria, which the United States had previously said was limited to a mechanism to avoid accidents in the air as both countries undertake bombing campaigns there. Lieutenant General Charles Brown, the head of U.S. Air Forces Central Command, disclosed the request at a Thursday news briefing at the Pentagon. “We told them (the Russians) these are … general areas where we have coalition forces that we don’t want them to strike there, because all it’s going to do is escalate things,” Brown said. “It’s really just to maintain the safety for our forces that are both in the air and in this case on the ground.” The United States announced in October it would deploy dozens of special operators in northern Syria to advise opposition forces in their fight against the militant group Islamic State. A senior U.S. defense official said at the time that the United States had not notified Russia of the special forces’ location in Syria, but was open to doing so in order to keep the troops safe. Russia launched air strikes in Syria last year saying it was targeting Islamic State militants. But rebels on the ground and Western officials say the strikes have mainly targeted moderate rebel groups not associated with Islamic State, including U.S.-trained fighters. Major powers agreed last week to a limited cessation of hostilities in Syria in a deal that takes effect at the end of this week. Russia says the “cessation” does not apply to its air strikes, which have shifted the balance of power toward Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The United States has not shared with the Russians specific locations or times of the U.S. special operators’ movements, Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook said on Thursday. The request was made via the two countries’ defense ministries, and U.S. Secretary Ash Carter was aware of the request, Cook said. “We provided (the Russians) a geographical area that we asked them to stay out of because of the risk to U.S. forces,” Cook said. “Up to this point they have honored this request.” He declined to comment specifically on the timing of the request.

            https://www.almasdarnews.com/article...yria-military/ | Al-Masdar News

            Comment


            • Re: Regional geopolitics

              Region entering stage of instability – Ara Papyan
              18.02.16
              http://www.tert.am/en/news/2016/02/18/papyan/1932512


              The region is entering a stage of instability. Those winning will come off strong and great, those defeated will go down in history, Ara Papyan, Head of the Modus Vivendi center, told Tert.am.

              “In the 1990sm the territory of the Soviet Union was reshaped, whereas the Middle East is being shaped.
              And we have been entering a stage of instability and wars for the last 20 years,” he said.

              Mr Papyan noted that war could be expected in any place, which, however, does not necessarily mean battlefields and fronts. Rather, he expects network warfare.

              “Armenia will find itself in the hotbed and should be prepared for serious challenges,” Mr Papyan said.

              Speaking of Iran’s more active role and opportunities opened up for Armenia, he said:

              “I think if the problem of Armenian consumers of Russian gas remain unsolved, we cannot import gas from Iran, that is, it is under Russia’s control."

              Mr Papyan considers a railway construction project in Zangezur technically and financially impossible.

              On the other hand, Armenian-Iranian trade could be boosted, though Iran has always been able to sell its products in Armenia.

              “Our only benefit is operation of the Georgia-Armenia-Nakhijevan-Iran railway, and Iran using it in its trade relations with Europe, which will enable Armenia to be a transit country,” Mr Papyan said.

              However, he does not see any steps on the part of Armenia’s authorities and considers them unlikely.

              “Iran will seek to counterbalance Turkey’s role in Azerbaijan, it will be more active due to huger funds, whereas Azerbaijan’s funds will decrease. I think the Iranian-speaking peoples, Talysh people and the Tat people, living in Azerbaijan, will be more active because Iran will make huge investments,” Mr Papyan said.

              He points out religious elements in Iran’s ideology, which, according to him, pose a threat.

              “Iran is in control of its religious leaders’ policy by means of its geopolitical interests,” he said.

              The West has always been critical of Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan is not an economic factor of special importance for the West.

              “Oil and gas are insignificant for the West. They are of high importance for Azerbaijan itself. Our benefit is that Azerbaijan is losing its money.”

              Speaking of Azerbaijan’s caviar policy, Mr Papyan said:

              “Why did no they succeed in the 1990s, while they do now? It means we made mistakes. If you join the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), you join a union opposing the West, while the West was, in turn, is in opposition to you,” Mr Papyan said.

              According to him, the anti-Armenian resolution would not have been approved by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) if Armenia had not joined the EEU.

              Armenia should pursue a sovereign policy and be a political and economic actor, Mr Papyan said.

              Comment


              • Re: Regional geopolitics

                Originally posted by Vrej1915 View Post
                Region entering stage of instability – Ara Papyan
                18.02.16
                http://www.tert.am/en/news/2016/02/18/papyan/1932512


                The region is entering a stage of instability. Those winning will come off strong and great, those defeated will go down in history, Ara Papyan, Head of the Modus Vivendi center, told Tert.am.

                “In the 1990sm the territory of the Soviet Union was reshaped, whereas the Middle East is being shaped.
                And we have been entering a stage of instability and wars for the last 20 years,” he said.

                Mr Papyan noted that war could be expected in any place, which, however, does not necessarily mean battlefields and fronts. Rather, he expects network warfare.

                “Armenia will find itself in the hotbed and should be prepared for serious challenges,” Mr Papyan said.

                Speaking of Iran’s more active role and opportunities opened up for Armenia, he said:

                “I think if the problem of Armenian consumers of Russian gas remain unsolved, we cannot import gas from Iran, that is, it is under Russia’s control."

                Mr Papyan considers a railway construction project in Zangezur technically and financially impossible.

                On the other hand, Armenian-Iranian trade could be boosted, though Iran has always been able to sell its products in Armenia.

                “Our only benefit is operation of the Georgia-Armenia-Nakhijevan-Iran railway, and Iran using it in its trade relations with Europe, which will enable Armenia to be a transit country,” Mr Papyan said.

                However, he does not see any steps on the part of Armenia’s authorities and considers them unlikely.

                “Iran will seek to counterbalance Turkey’s role in Azerbaijan, it will be more active due to huger funds, whereas Azerbaijan’s funds will decrease. I think the Iranian-speaking peoples, Talysh people and the Tat people, living in Azerbaijan, will be more active because Iran will make huge investments,” Mr Papyan said.

                He points out religious elements in Iran’s ideology, which, according to him, pose a threat.

                “Iran is in control of its religious leaders’ policy by means of its geopolitical interests,” he said.

                The West has always been critical of Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan is not an economic factor of special importance for the West.

                “Oil and gas are insignificant for the West. They are of high importance for Azerbaijan itself. Our benefit is that Azerbaijan is losing its money.”

                Speaking of Azerbaijan’s caviar policy, Mr Papyan said:

                “Why did no they succeed in the 1990s, while they do now? It means we made mistakes. If you join the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), you join a union opposing the West, while the West was, in turn, is in opposition to you,” Mr Papyan said.

                According to him, the anti-Armenian resolution would not have been approved by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) if Armenia had not joined the EEU.

                Armenia should pursue a sovereign policy and be a political and economic actor, Mr Papyan said.

                LOLLLLL! papyan is a scumbag.

                Read what he says.........'''If Armenia didn't join EEU we would not have the anti-Armenian resolution in PACE'' HAHAHA..........can someone remind this retarded monkey........before joining the EEU.....................

                Did the west 'recongize' our genocide?
                Did the west bother telling 'turkey' why is it blockading us?
                Did the west bother stopping azeri aggression?
                Did the west do anything when Gurgen Margaryan got killed while attending nato clown show?
                Did the west bother doing anything for us?

                Here we have a clown talking about what would happen if we didn't join the EEU..........before joining the EEU .......... IF WEST cared about us they would have done something about it.

                Someone should take Papyan,Sefilyan,Richard CIA giragosian,Hayrikyan etc.....in 1 room and tie them up and just shot them and be done with it.
                A good turk is a dead turk

                Comment


                • Re: Regional geopolitics

                  Comment


                  • Re: Regional geopolitics

                    Originally posted by Gevz View Post
                    LOLLLLL! papyan is a scumbag.

                    Read what he says.........'''If Armenia didn't join EEU we would not have the anti-Armenian resolution in PACE'' HAHAHA..........can someone remind this retarded monkey........before joining the EEU.....................

                    Did the west 'recongize' our genocide?
                    Did the west bother telling 'turkey' why is it blockading us?
                    Did the west bother stopping azeri aggression?
                    Did the west do anything when Gurgen Margaryan got killed while attending nato clown show?
                    Did the west bother doing anything for us?

                    Here we have a clown talking about what would happen if we didn't join the EEU..........before joining the EEU .......... IF WEST cared about us they would have done something about it.

                    Someone should take Papyan,Sefilyan,Richard CIA giragosian,Hayrikyan etc.....in 1 room and tie them up and just shot them and be done with it.
                    Totally agree! You should add vrej1915 to that list to.
                    Hayastan or Bust.

                    Comment


                    • Re: Regional geopolitics

                      Originally posted by Haykakan View Post
                      Totally agree! You should add vrej1915 to that list to.
                      I was going to add him to the list but refused to as the mods prob ban me for that.

                      But yeah nuyn zibilna.
                      A good turk is a dead turk

                      Comment

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