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Energy in Azerbaijan

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  • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

    LOL

    Most of Azerbaijan’s losses from oil price drop to be compensated – top official

    About 200 billion dollars have been invested in Azerbaijan. Nearly a half of this is Azerbaijan’s own investment and the other half has been invested in Azerbaijan by foreign investors, said Ali Hasanov, Azerbaijani president’s aide for public and political affairs.

    LOL LOL

    http://en.apa.az/xeber_most_of_azerb...ri_238763.html

    Comment


    • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      Azeri cbank sells $16.7 mln on FX market on Monday to support manat

      http://www.reuters.com/article/azerb...-idUSR4N15605H

      Azeri cbank sells $31 mln on FX market on Weds to support manat

      http://www.reuters.com/article/azerb...-idUSR4N15C01Y

      ---

      ~$50mln sold in the first 3 days of the month

      Comment


      • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

        How many major banks are there in Baboonestan? I figure 2 but it must be more.
        B0zkurt Hunter

        Comment


        • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

          Originally posted by Eddo211 View Post
          How many major banks are there in Baboonestan? I figure 2 but it must be more.
          Follow this link to their CB, it lists all the banks operating in Baboonistan. http://en.cbar.az/lpages/links/banks-of-azerbaijan/

          Follow this link to a report on their biggest banks as of last year http://report.az/en/finance/azerbaij...anks-revealed/

          Note that a lot of banks have lost their license to operate in the past month and that a few more will be merging together. Also note that the Manat has fallen drastically and that the assets in these banks most likely have declined significantly.

          Comment


          • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

            Originally posted by HyeSocialist View Post
            Follow this link to their CB, it lists all the banks operating in Baboonistan. http://en.cbar.az/lpages/links/banks-of-azerbaijan/

            Follow this link to a report on their biggest banks as of last year http://report.az/en/finance/azerbaij...anks-revealed/

            Note that a lot of banks have lost their license to operate in the past month and that a few more will be merging together. Also note that the Manat has fallen drastically and that the assets in these banks most likely have declined significantly.
            Thanks!
            General Antranik (1865-1927): “I am not a nationalist. I recognize only one nation, the nation of the oppressed.”

            Comment


            • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

              Azeri cenbank sold $18.37 mln on forex market on Friday

              http://www.reuters.com/article/azerb...-idUSR4N15H00M

              Total up to ~ $66mln sold in 5 days.

              Comment


              • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

                Total of 36 banks operate in the country, with two being state owned.

                11 banks are being liquidated.

                http://en.trend.az/azerbaijan/business/2490870.html

                Comment


                • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

                  Strategists Prediction ... Oil headed into the $20s

                  http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/05/citi-...th-spiral.html

                  Comment


                  • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

                    The Road Map of an Anti-Crisis Strategy in Azerbaijan
                    Written by Dr. Vugar Bayramov


                    The Road Map of an Anti-Crisis Strategy in Azerbaijan


                    The current economic policy, including the monetary policy needs to be compatible with post-oil
                    or crisis period. Presently there are two major priorities in economic policy of government and the
                    Central Bank: to constrain inflation and prevent or delay potential variations in the exchange rate
                    of national currency. These priorities are important, however they are not and should not be, the
                    key targets in times of economic hardship and crisis. Limiting money base via administrative
                    measures may serve the short-term purpose of adjustment, but in medium and long-term may have
                    negative outcomes. Actually, after the first devaluation of national currency, the government
                    should have reversed its contractionary economic policy by stimulating economic activity. Being
                    experienced in planning of anti-crisis measures in several countries, I can state that, the current
                    economic and monetary policies, concentrated on tightening of monetary base and therefore
                    leading to decreasing activity in the real sector, needs to be reconsidered entirely. Such policy is
                    not capable of bringing progress in real sector, in contrast, can lead to closure of even more
                    workplaces.
                    In order to exit the crisis, the economy requires an injection of “hot money”. The
                    contractionary monetary policy does not allow this money to enter the real sector. As a result, this
                    may help to maintain the exchange rate of manat via administrative way, but neither meets the
                    demand for dollar, nor facilitates the creation of new workplaces. The contractionary policy of the
                    Central Bank has a deleterious impact on employment, and that is why, it is essential to replace
                    the prevailing policy with anti-crisis and stimulating measures.

                    The problem is, currently the monetary policy is based on completing the dollarization process and
                    to commence anti-dollarization. Limiting the supply of manat via administrative way serves this
                    purpose as well. Nonetheless, the dollarization process should not be founded on shortage of dollar
                    and forming “black market”. Unless the demand for dollar is met entirely, the process will prolong
                    and be like ‘pain in the gut’, and the Central Bank will not be able to accomplish its targets. People
                    queueing to get 300 USD is not consistent with a stable exchange rate policy. So, shifting the
                    approach is crucial, and a repudiation of old rules should be the decisive element of the current
                    economic policy. The restriction of dollar sale has created a serious stagnation in the activities of
                    entrepreneurs engaged in import. Since businessmen cannot meet their demand for foreign
                    currency, they have experienced difficulties in foreign trade activities.

                    All anti-crises theories are founded on expansionary policies, rather than contractionary. Presently,
                    the opposite is the case in our country, the Central Bank restricts monetary base. Consequently,
                    reduced money in circulation discourages investment and decreases purchasing power ability.
                    Monetary base should be shaped not by decreasing the supply of manat artificially though
                    administrative measures, but according to the law on money circulation. Unfortunately, the present
                    policy of the Central Bank has failed the proportionality between money supply and gross domestic
                    product
                    . Of course, new emission is not the answer. That is to say, the Central Bank may be
                    cautious about injecting new manats into circulation, because they tend to be converted to dollars,
                    and thereby, increasing its intervention costs. But the fact is that, attracting foreign currency into
                    the country can accelerate the dollarization process, and manats in circulation will no longer “seek
                    dollar” but create new economic value-added.

                    The Central Bank should let the exchange rate of manat to be freely determined in market, though
                    gradually. It is impossible to keep the exchange rate of the national currency stable through
                    administrative measures in the long-term. The Central Bank, being cautious of sharp devaluation
                    of manat, does not pursue exchange rate policy. It may be asked from the Central Bank why our
                    foreign reserves worth 12 billion USD was expended, given the sharp devaluation of the national
                    currency was inevitable. If the Central Bank were unable to maintain the exchange rate during
                    2015, then the Bank should have switched to the floating exchange rate regime not on 21
                    December, but on 21 February. During crisis, economic policy changes promptly, and it needs to
                    change in our country as well. Foreign reserves equivalent to aforementioned amount had already
                    been spent, will not return back. We must ensure that, this 12 billion dollar are to be produced by
                    real sector, in other words, by entrepreneurs. For this purpose, expansionary measures in real
                    sector, capable of creating new value, need to be implemented. These measures require the
                    injection of new currency into circulation, and provision of the long-term loans at a very low
                    interest rates for entrepreneurs in sectors of comparative advantage. An entrepreneur should be
                    provided with an opportunity to get a loan transparently at a maximum of 3% for 7 years in order
                    to produce export-oriented goods.

                    The assets of the State Oil Fund are continuously viewed as “insurance cushion”. When the
                    “cushion” is needed? During an economic hardship and crisis period, that is to say, now. It is
                    interesting why we do not use this cushion? The Norway Pension (Oil) Fund sells its real estate in
                    foreign countries, but the State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan invests in the economy of
                    Italy though real estate purchases when our country so desperately needs foreign exchange.
                    However, under present circumstances, foreign currency should be directed into the economy,
                    rather than channelling it abroad. None of crisis theories cannot answer this question: Why should
                    foreign currency be taken away from the country and invested to the economy of other country,
                    provided that there is a demand for it in the economy?

                    The anti-crisis models unambiguously suggest that, the assets of the State Oil Fund, at the initial
                    stage 4 billion USD, should be brought to the country, and therefore provided for entrepreneurs
                    transparently and without a barrier by banks. In order to ensure transparency in the provision of
                    funds, a commission consisting of civil society representatives, experts, as well as, foreign
                    managers, can be formed. This will facilitate on the one hand an increased flow of foreign
                    exchange and will lower the pressure on manat, on the other hand, will increase foreign exchange
                    reserves of banks, though which an entrepreneurship can be supported. Thus, bringing funds to the
                    country will have a positive influence both on banking sector and on the development of
                    entrepreneurship.

                    The reserves of the State Oil Fund are amounted to 33 billion USD, and 80% is invested in fixedincome
                    stocks. Other categories include real estate purchases, investments in gold, and securities
                    respectively 5%, 5% and 10%. The funds of the State Oil Fund will be brought in foreign currency,
                    and banks will promote entrepreneurship through provision of these funds. As stated, the Central
                    Bank refrains from injecting manats into the circulation and decreases monetary base in order to
                    lower money supply and prevent manat to be depreciated even further against dollar. Nevertheless,
                    if the assets of the State Oil Fund valued at 4 billion USD is brought to the country, and enters to
                    the circulation, it will not increase the pressure on manat.

                    Thus, foreign currency will enter into the circulation, and entrepreneurs will be able to contribute
                    to the non-oil sector by receiving low-interest loans. It is essential to bring the aforementioned
                    funds of the State Oil Fund at the moment. There is a need to support entrepreneurship. If the
                    current difficulties persist, the number of closed workplaces and business entities will reduce.
                    Therefore, in order to meet current foreign exchange demand and to finance entrepreneurship, the
                    country ought to either to turn to foreign borrowing, or to bring some part of the assets of the State
                    Oil Fund and making them available for businessmen through banks. There is a need to make a
                    decision about this at present time. Economic problems can be aggravated if there is a delay in
                    bringing the assets of the Fund.

                    Thus, current contractionary policy needs to be reversed completely. On the one hand, it can be
                    done using the assets of the state Oil Fund. On the other hand, large-scale reforms (structural and
                    institutional changes, elimination of monopolies and fight against corruption, supporting
                    entrepreneurship) need to be implemented in order to increase the volume of non-oil exports.
                    Unless the aforementioned current and strategic targets are realised, we cannot be insured against
                    the next sharp devaluation.

                    Vugar Bayramov is a well-known economist in Azerbaijan. He was a visiting faculty member
                    at the Washington University (USA) in 2002/2003. Bayramov has a Ph.D. in economics. His
                    papers/books have been translated into 25 languages. In 2010, Bayramov was named one of
                    the 500 most influential Muslims in the world by The Royal Islamic Strategic Studies Centre
                    (RISSC) in Jordan. Vugar Bayramov is the chairman of Centre for Economic and Social
                    Development (CESD, www.cesd.az). According to the University of Pennsylvania Global
                    Think Tanks Rankings, his centre has been selected as a top think tank in Southern Caucasus
                    and Central Asia last 5 years.

                    http://cesd.az/new/wp-content/upload...r_Bayramov.pdf
                    <<եթե զենք էլ չլինի' ես քարերով կկրվեմ>>

                    Comment


                    • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

                      Originally posted by Mher View Post
                      The Road Map of an Anti-Crisis Strategy in Azerbaijan
                      Written by Dr. Vugar Bayramov


                      The Road Map of an Anti-Crisis Strategy in Azerbaijan


                      The current economic policy, including the monetary policy needs to be compatible with post-oil
                      or crisis period. Presently there are two major priorities in economic policy of government and the
                      Central Bank: to constrain inflation and prevent or delay potential variations in the exchange rate
                      of national currency. These priorities are important, however they are not and should not be, the
                      key targets in times of economic hardship and crisis. Limiting money base via administrative
                      measures may serve the short-term purpose of adjustment, but in medium and long-term may have
                      negative outcomes. Actually, after the first devaluation of national currency, the government
                      should have reversed its contractionary economic policy by stimulating economic activity. Being
                      experienced in planning of anti-crisis measures in several countries, I can state that, the current
                      economic and monetary policies, concentrated on tightening of monetary base and therefore
                      leading to decreasing activity in the real sector, needs to be reconsidered entirely. Such policy is
                      not capable of bringing progress in real sector, in contrast, can lead to closure of even more
                      workplaces.
                      In order to exit the crisis, the economy requires an injection of “hot money”. The
                      contractionary monetary policy does not allow this money to enter the real sector. As a result, this
                      may help to maintain the exchange rate of manat via administrative way, but neither meets the
                      demand for dollar, nor facilitates the creation of new workplaces. The contractionary policy of the
                      Central Bank has a deleterious impact on employment, and that is why, it is essential to replace
                      the prevailing policy with anti-crisis and stimulating measures.

                      The problem is, currently the monetary policy is based on completing the dollarization process and
                      to commence anti-dollarization. Limiting the supply of manat via administrative way serves this
                      purpose as well. Nonetheless, the dollarization process should not be founded on shortage of dollar
                      and forming “black market”. Unless the demand for dollar is met entirely, the process will prolong
                      and be like ‘pain in the gut’, and the Central Bank will not be able to accomplish its targets. People
                      queueing to get 300 USD is not consistent with a stable exchange rate policy. So, shifting the
                      approach is crucial, and a repudiation of old rules should be the decisive element of the current
                      economic policy. The restriction of dollar sale has created a serious stagnation in the activities of
                      entrepreneurs engaged in import. Since businessmen cannot meet their demand for foreign
                      currency, they have experienced difficulties in foreign trade activities.

                      All anti-crises theories are founded on expansionary policies, rather than contractionary. Presently,
                      the opposite is the case in our country, the Central Bank restricts monetary base. Consequently,
                      reduced money in circulation discourages investment and decreases purchasing power ability.
                      Monetary base should be shaped not by decreasing the supply of manat artificially though
                      administrative measures, but according to the law on money circulation. Unfortunately, the present
                      policy of the Central Bank has failed the proportionality between money supply and gross domestic
                      product
                      . Of course, new emission is not the answer. That is to say, the Central Bank may be
                      cautious about injecting new manats into circulation, because they tend to be converted to dollars,
                      and thereby, increasing its intervention costs. But the fact is that, attracting foreign currency into
                      the country can accelerate the dollarization process, and manats in circulation will no longer “seek
                      dollar” but create new economic value-added.

                      The Central Bank should let the exchange rate of manat to be freely determined in market, though
                      gradually. It is impossible to keep the exchange rate of the national currency stable through
                      administrative measures in the long-term. The Central Bank, being cautious of sharp devaluation
                      of manat, does not pursue exchange rate policy. It may be asked from the Central Bank why our
                      foreign reserves worth 12 billion USD was expended, given the sharp devaluation of the national
                      currency was inevitable. If the Central Bank were unable to maintain the exchange rate during
                      2015, then the Bank should have switched to the floating exchange rate regime not on 21
                      December, but on 21 February. During crisis, economic policy changes promptly, and it needs to
                      change in our country as well. Foreign reserves equivalent to aforementioned amount had already
                      been spent, will not return back. We must ensure that, this 12 billion dollar are to be produced by
                      real sector, in other words, by entrepreneurs. For this purpose, expansionary measures in real
                      sector, capable of creating new value, need to be implemented. These measures require the
                      injection of new currency into circulation, and provision of the long-term loans at a very low
                      interest rates for entrepreneurs in sectors of comparative advantage. An entrepreneur should be
                      provided with an opportunity to get a loan transparently at a maximum of 3% for 7 years in order
                      to produce export-oriented goods.

                      The assets of the State Oil Fund are continuously viewed as “insurance cushion”. When the
                      “cushion” is needed? During an economic hardship and crisis period, that is to say, now. It is
                      interesting why we do not use this cushion? The Norway Pension (Oil) Fund sells its real estate in
                      foreign countries, but the State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan invests in the economy of
                      Italy though real estate purchases when our country so desperately needs foreign exchange.
                      However, under present circumstances, foreign currency should be directed into the economy,
                      rather than channelling it abroad. None of crisis theories cannot answer this question: Why should
                      foreign currency be taken away from the country and invested to the economy of other country,
                      provided that there is a demand for it in the economy?

                      The anti-crisis models unambiguously suggest that, the assets of the State Oil Fund, at the initial
                      stage 4 billion USD, should be brought to the country, and therefore provided for entrepreneurs
                      transparently and without a barrier by banks. In order to ensure transparency in the provision of
                      funds, a commission consisting of civil society representatives, experts, as well as, foreign
                      managers, can be formed. This will facilitate on the one hand an increased flow of foreign
                      exchange and will lower the pressure on manat, on the other hand, will increase foreign exchange
                      reserves of banks, though which an entrepreneurship can be supported. Thus, bringing funds to the
                      country will have a positive influence both on banking sector and on the development of
                      entrepreneurship.

                      The reserves of the State Oil Fund are amounted to 33 billion USD, and 80% is invested in fixedincome
                      stocks. Other categories include real estate purchases, investments in gold, and securities
                      respectively 5%, 5% and 10%. The funds of the State Oil Fund will be brought in foreign currency,
                      and banks will promote entrepreneurship through provision of these funds. As stated, the Central
                      Bank refrains from injecting manats into the circulation and decreases monetary base in order to
                      lower money supply and prevent manat to be depreciated even further against dollar. Nevertheless,
                      if the assets of the State Oil Fund valued at 4 billion USD is brought to the country, and enters to
                      the circulation, it will not increase the pressure on manat.

                      Thus, foreign currency will enter into the circulation, and entrepreneurs will be able to contribute
                      to the non-oil sector by receiving low-interest loans. It is essential to bring the aforementioned
                      funds of the State Oil Fund at the moment. There is a need to support entrepreneurship. If the
                      current difficulties persist, the number of closed workplaces and business entities will reduce.
                      Therefore, in order to meet current foreign exchange demand and to finance entrepreneurship, the
                      country ought to either to turn to foreign borrowing, or to bring some part of the assets of the State
                      Oil Fund and making them available for businessmen through banks. There is a need to make a
                      decision about this at present time. Economic problems can be aggravated if there is a delay in
                      bringing the assets of the Fund.

                      Thus, current contractionary policy needs to be reversed completely. On the one hand, it can be
                      done using the assets of the state Oil Fund. On the other hand, large-scale reforms (structural and
                      institutional changes, elimination of monopolies and fight against corruption, supporting
                      entrepreneurship) need to be implemented in order to increase the volume of non-oil exports.
                      Unless the aforementioned current and strategic targets are realised, we cannot be insured against
                      the next sharp devaluation.

                      Vugar Bayramov is a well-known economist in Azerbaijan. He was a visiting faculty member
                      at the Washington University (USA) in 2002/2003. Bayramov has a Ph.D. in economics. His
                      papers/books have been translated into 25 languages. In 2010, Bayramov was named one of
                      the 500 most influential Muslims in the world by The Royal Islamic Strategic Studies Centre
                      (RISSC) in Jordan. Vugar Bayramov is the chairman of Centre for Economic and Social
                      Development (CESD, www.cesd.az). According to the University of Pennsylvania Global
                      Think Tanks Rankings, his centre has been selected as a top think tank in Southern Caucasus
                      and Central Asia last 5 years.

                      http://cesd.az/new/wp-content/upload...r_Bayramov.pdf
                      --- large scale reforms (structural and institutional changes, ILIMINATION of monopolies and FIGHT against CORRUPTION ----
                      Yes, I think any sane person would agree with above analysis.
                      Does any sane person think the ILIMINATION of monopolies and corruption are going to REALISTICLY be addressed by azer govt.?
                      Might as well bet on the "tooth fairy" to save the day.
                      Realism, sane moves by east turc, or tooth fairy.
                      Realism is out. That leaves ...
                      HARK

                      Comment

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