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Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

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  • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

    Global Insight
    May 25, 2012

    Azerbaijan's Defence Spending Continues to Expand

    by Lilit Gevorgyan


    According to the state-controlled Azerbaijani APA news agency,
    Azerbaijan's defence spending during the first quarter this year
    amounted to 152.2 million Azerbaijani new manat (USD193.7 million), an
    increase of 37.3% year-on-year (y/y). After expenditure on industry,
    construction and economic activities, the defence spend was the third
    largest slice of government spending, on a par with social security
    expenditures. The Azerbaijani government has slated USD4.397 billion
    for this year's defence spend, a significant increase compared with
    USD3.1 billion in 2011. The government hopes that the massive increase
    will help to revamp the army's capabilities, boost the military
    complex--which produces 600 different products--and also help in the
    protracted process of army modernisation reforms. The latest figures
    confirm that the Azeri government remains on track in terms of
    allocation of funds.

    Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev, and his administration have made
    no secret of the fact that the aim of the current rearmament is to
    bring a military solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which has
    been frozen since 1994 when the Armenian-populated region--with the
    help of Armenia--managed to reverse an Azeri army advance. With
    international mediation, the parties to the conflict signed an
    armistice, but no final agreement has been achieved over the final
    status of the self-declared republic. Earlier this year, Bloomberg
    quoted Aliyev as saying that his country's defence budget is larger
    than the entire Armenian state budget, adding that "It's not a frozen
    conflict, and it's not going to be one". However, international
    mediators as well as Azerbaijan's staunchest ally and ethnic kin,
    Turkey, have to date been clear in their opposition to any military
    solution to the conflict.

    Significance:In 2003, Azerbaijan's military budget was only USD175
    million, with plans to spend USD4.3 billion on defence spending in
    2012 representing a marked increase. Part of the spending is indeed
    required to replace badly outdated Soviet-era equipment and build new
    capabilities. The Azeri military have been working closely with
    external specialists to carry out army reforms, which are badly needed
    in order to break from Soviet-style military institutions. Spending
    has been channeled towards strengthening domestic production
    capabilities, which means that the international community will have
    less leverage over Azerbaijan in case of a military conflict with
    Armenia. A recently unveiled USD1.6-billion arms deal with Israel is
    another sign of serious effort on the part of Azerbaijan to boost its
    air defence and hardware capabilities. While the short-term risk of
    war is low, the military buildup coupled with hostile rhetoric by the
    Azeri leadership and active stoking of nationalistic sentiment
    domestically, are strong signals that the possibility of war cannot be
    ruled out in the long term.

    Comment


    • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

      Azerbaijan Brings Out The Big (Naval) Guns For Eurovision
      May 25, 2012 - 5:17am, by Joshua Kucera The Bug Pit Azerbaijan Iran Russia

      The Bug Pit
      An Azerbaijani Coast Guard ship patrols this week in Baku's harbor
      As Baku got ready for the highest-profile event in its recent history, hosting the Eurovision Song Contest, there has been a conspicuous presence in the city's Caspian Sea port: two Coast Guard vessels, part of Azerbaijan's heightened security measures as Europe's pop music fans have flocked to the city.

      Government officials aren't saying what threat they might be protecting against, and, as close to the water as the Eurovision venue might be, of course an attack from the sea is exceedingly unlikely. Still, Eurovision is taking place in an atmosphere of heightened tension with Iran -- which also happens to be the most significant threat that Azerbaijan's growing naval force is intended to protect against.

      Azerbaijan has perhaps been the most secretive of all of the Caspian littoral states about its navy, but the recent purchase of anti-ship missiles from Israel suggests an intention to get more serious about its naval security.

      The analysts I spoke to in Baku said that the wakeup call for Azerbaijan's navy was when Iran threatened a BP prospecting ship in 2001. There have been other episodes when Iranian oil rigs entered sea space that Azerbaijan claimed, and that threat is still present. "How will we react if tomorrow Iran decides to install one of their oil wells in some territory that we consider ours?" asks Tahir Zeynalov, an analyst at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy. "Maybe some crazy guy, because he got frustrated by Azerbaijan-Israeli relations, tomorrow he will declare 'go and install that well over there.' The possibility of serious tension is there, and Azerbaijan will attempt not to allow it."

      The U.S. has played a large role in building up Azerbaijan's navy, donating some patrol boats and training Azerbaijani naval special forces. As recently as 2009, the infamous Blackwater was conducting some of that training, according to Wikileaked diplomatic cables. And the cables also show the U.S. repeatedly pushing Azerbaijan to strengthen its navy, in particular its ability to conduct surveillance in their part of the Caspian. From another 2009 cable:

      DoD has conducted several engagement events with Azerbaijan Navy and Coast Guard officers with the purpose of building capacity for critical energy infrastructure protection. The events have been well received by Coast Guard and Navy leadership, but have limited value in the overall maritime security posture. Only significant investment in new surveillance and response capabilities - including infrastructure, radar, intelligence, ships, and aircraft - will meet the security challenges faced here.

      The U.S. role in training and equipping Azerbaijan's navy (as well as, to a lesser extent, those of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) has spooked Iran, said one naval analyst in Baku who asked to remain anonymous: “Iranians think they are a besieged fortress... The U.S. cooperation here is nothing special but they build conspiracy theories about it.”

      Iran, though, is not the only threat Azerbaijan perceives on the sea: while Russia would certainly not attack while its beloved babushki were competing at Eurovision, strategic planners in Baku nevertheless see Russia as a potential source of trouble.

      “Russia is the wildest card in the deck – they have so many ways to mess things up," says Reshad Karimov, an analyst at Baku's Center for Strategic Studies. "They have the resources, they have the firepower, they have established the political will to do that. Some levels of Russian society can not stand seeing that Azerbaijan is in the underbelly of Russia but still plays the big guy's game.”

      In particular, Russia is opposed to Azerbaijan's discussions with Turkmenistan over a trans-Caspian pipeline to transport gas from Central Asia to Europe, bypassing Russia. Currently the European Union, with backing from the U.S., is in discussions with Turkmenistan about such a pipeline, but Azerbaijan is trying to stay out of it as much as possible so as to not antagonize Russia, analysts here say. "That's why they [the Azerbaijani government] throw the ball into the Europeans' and the U.S. court – 'it's not our problem, you sort it out...,'" Zeynalov says. Nevertheless, some figures (albeit minor ones) in Russia have threatened to use force to stop such a pipeline.

      Russia also poses a complication for Azerbaijan's navy in that it controls the only waterway into the Caspian, the Volga River. Russia allowed the U.S. to ship its donated vessels through the Volga, but being dependent on the good will of Russia is not sustainable, so Azerbaijan is building its own shipyard to eventually construct its own naval ships. "We can't even have a proper navy, only Russia can. That's why we're building a shipyard, in order to have some independence in decision-making and not to depend on Russia," Karimov says.

      And Azerbaijan is trying to react to moves by Iran and Russia, by far the two most significant naval powers on the sea, to build up their own fleets. “Even if we don't want to spend that much money on naval militarization, we end up spending it to keep up with all the threats," Karimov says. "If someone is too safe, no one is safe.”

      This reporting was made possible by a grant from the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting.

      Comment


      • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

        Originally posted by Vrej1915 View Post
        Azerbaijan Brings Out The Big (Naval) Guns For Eurovision
        May 25, 2012 - 5:17am, by Joshua Kucera The Bug Pit Azerbaijan Iran Russia
        yeah ever second i was waiting that Armenian rockets would fall on baku.Even azeris was worried bout that XD

        Comment


        • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

          can someone explain what is going on between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, and if there could be a military conflict as a result?

          Comment


          • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

            Originally posted by Vrej1915 View Post
            Azerbaijan Brings Out The Big (Naval) Guns For Eurovision
            May 25, 2012 - 5:17am, by Joshua Kucera The Bug Pit Azerbaijan Iran Russia

            The Bug Pit
            An Azerbaijani Coast Guard ship patrols this week in Baku's harbor
            As Baku got ready for the highest-profile event in its recent history, hosting the Eurovision Song Contest, there has been a conspicuous presence in the city's Caspian Sea port: two Coast Guard vessels, part of Azerbaijan's heightened security measures as Europe's pop music fans have flocked to the city.

            Government officials aren't saying what threat they might be protecting against, and, as close to the water as the Eurovision venue might be, of course an attack from the sea is exceedingly unlikely. Still, Eurovision is taking place in an atmosphere of heightened tension with Iran -- which also happens to be the most significant threat that Azerbaijan's growing naval force is intended to protect against.

            Azerbaijan has perhaps been the most secretive of all of the Caspian littoral states about its navy, but the recent purchase of anti-ship missiles from Israel suggests an intention to get more serious about its naval security.

            The analysts I spoke to in Baku said that the wakeup call for Azerbaijan's navy was when Iran threatened a BP prospecting ship in 2001. There have been other episodes when Iranian oil rigs entered sea space that Azerbaijan claimed, and that threat is still present. "How will we react if tomorrow Iran decides to install one of their oil wells in some territory that we consider ours?" asks Tahir Zeynalov, an analyst at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy. "Maybe some crazy guy, because he got frustrated by Azerbaijan-Israeli relations, tomorrow he will declare 'go and install that well over there.' The possibility of serious tension is there, and Azerbaijan will attempt not to allow it."

            The U.S. has played a large role in building up Azerbaijan's navy, donating some patrol boats and training Azerbaijani naval special forces. As recently as 2009, the infamous Blackwater was conducting some of that training, according to Wikileaked diplomatic cables. And the cables also show the U.S. repeatedly pushing Azerbaijan to strengthen its navy, in particular its ability to conduct surveillance in their part of the Caspian. From another 2009 cable:

            DoD has conducted several engagement events with Azerbaijan Navy and Coast Guard officers with the purpose of building capacity for critical energy infrastructure protection. The events have been well received by Coast Guard and Navy leadership, but have limited value in the overall maritime security posture. Only significant investment in new surveillance and response capabilities - including infrastructure, radar, intelligence, ships, and aircraft - will meet the security challenges faced here.

            The U.S. role in training and equipping Azerbaijan's navy (as well as, to a lesser extent, those of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) has spooked Iran, said one naval analyst in Baku who asked to remain anonymous: “Iranians think they are a besieged fortress... The U.S. cooperation here is nothing special but they build conspiracy theories about it.”

            Iran, though, is not the only threat Azerbaijan perceives on the sea: while Russia would certainly not attack while its beloved babushki were competing at Eurovision, strategic planners in Baku nevertheless see Russia as a potential source of trouble.

            “Russia is the wildest card in the deck – they have so many ways to mess things up," says Reshad Karimov, an analyst at Baku's Center for Strategic Studies. "They have the resources, they have the firepower, they have established the political will to do that. Some levels of Russian society can not stand seeing that Azerbaijan is in the underbelly of Russia but still plays the big guy's game.”

            In particular, Russia is opposed to Azerbaijan's discussions with Turkmenistan over a trans-Caspian pipeline to transport gas from Central Asia to Europe, bypassing Russia. Currently the European Union, with backing from the U.S., is in discussions with Turkmenistan about such a pipeline, but Azerbaijan is trying to stay out of it as much as possible so as to not antagonize Russia, analysts here say. "That's why they [the Azerbaijani government] throw the ball into the Europeans' and the U.S. court – 'it's not our problem, you sort it out...,'" Zeynalov says. Nevertheless, some figures (albeit minor ones) in Russia have threatened to use force to stop such a pipeline.

            Russia also poses a complication for Azerbaijan's navy in that it controls the only waterway into the Caspian, the Volga River. Russia allowed the U.S. to ship its donated vessels through the Volga, but being dependent on the good will of Russia is not sustainable, so Azerbaijan is building its own shipyard to eventually construct its own naval ships. "We can't even have a proper navy, only Russia can. That's why we're building a shipyard, in order to have some independence in decision-making and not to depend on Russia," Karimov says.

            And Azerbaijan is trying to react to moves by Iran and Russia, by far the two most significant naval powers on the sea, to build up their own fleets. “Even if we don't want to spend that much money on naval militarization, we end up spending it to keep up with all the threats," Karimov says. "If someone is too safe, no one is safe.”

            This reporting was made possible by a grant from the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting.
            Please post the URL/link to all articles you copy paste. This goes for everyone. Exception: don't hyperlink Azeri sources.
            Azerbaboon: 9.000 Google hits and counting!

            Comment


            • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

              Originally posted by davidoga View Post
              can someone explain what is going on between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, and if there could be a military conflict as a result?
              As far as I know there is dispute over territorial waters of the Caspian Sea.....Azeris trying to pull a fast one. In regards to any military conflict, no chance.
              B0zkurt Hunter

              Comment


              • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

                Originally posted by Federate View Post
                Please post the URL/link to all articles you copy paste. This goes for everyone. Exception: don't hyperlink Azeri sources.

                Comment


                • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

                  The Armenian-Turkish border is controlled by Russian border guards







                  Comment


                  • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

                    Originally posted by davidoga View Post
                    can someone explain what is going on between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, and if there could be a military conflict as a result?

                    Comment


                    • Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan



                      Ess Akhuriani jrampari hadvadzoum bunker/tangi kloukhi imassde voren e essorvan baymanneroum?
                      Srantzitz gar nayev Javakhki hadvadzoum, Gardzakhi lji yezrin, paytz vratzik talanetzin ou lketzin...

                      Yete sahmanakhakhdneri tem yen pchalarere, achdaragnere , hasganali e.
                      Tntanote ge nchanagi baderazm.
                      Paytz baderazmi jamanag el, aratchoutz haydni coordinatnerov bunkere, vorin klkhin votch chad dogoun tanki kloukh e, aratchi robeyoum ge veratzvi herahar dzaner hredaniyov.
                      Jichd tchi?

                      Comment

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