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Trends in religion.

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  • Trends in religion.

    By Cathy Lynn Grossman, USA TODAY
    Americans who don't identify with any religion are now 15% of the USA, but trends in a new study shows they could one day surpass the nation's largest denominations — including Catholics, now 24% of the nation.
    American Nones: Profile of the No Religion Population, to be released today by Trinity College, finds this faith-free group already includes nearly 19% of U.S. men and 12% of women. Of these, 35% say they were Catholic at age 12.


    FAITH & REASON: Were Founding Fathers 'Nones?'

    "Will a day come when the Nones are on top? We can't predict for sure," says lead researcher Barry Kosmin.

    But if Nones, now 22% of all adults ages 18 to 29, continue to gain among young adults, to draw more people "switching out" from denominations and to replace more religious older people, researchers forecast one in five Americans will be Nones in 20 years.

    "Trends clearly favor this," Kosmin says. But he also notes, "There could be a Great Awakening (massive Protestant revival) or immigration may bring in more Catholic believers."

    Kosmin and Ariela Keysar of Trinity College, Hartford, Conn., directed three editions of the American Religious Identification Survey over 18 years. The 2008 ARIS (pdf), based on a sampling of 54,000 U.S. adults, also burrowed in for a closer look at 1,106 Nones, who answered extra questions about their beliefs and behaviors and views on God.


    ARIS: Most religious groups have lost ground in USA
    'NONES': Now 15% of population

    The report finds:

    •Not all Nones are alike. Half (51%) still believe in God or a higher power.

    •Nones also are the only major U. S. faith group that's majority male. Even when girls grow up with unbelieving parents, they're more likely to find a faith as adults than their brothers.

    "Women are also less skeptical than men and less drawn to irreligious and anti-religious views. They are more likely to reject a secular upbringing," Kosmin says.

    "There is a lot of 'churning' going on but Nones gain much more from switching (people leaving religion) than from natural growth (children emulating unbelieving parents)," he says.

    •The percentage of atheist Nones — who say there's no such thing as God — hasn't budged in years.

    "It's not as though dozens of people at the Methodist Church read (atheist Richard) Dawkins and suddenly decided God doesn't exist," says Kosmin.

    "There are so many misconceptions about who the Nones are. They're not New Age searchers or spiritual or even hardened atheists," says Kosmin.

    "They're a stew of agnostics, deists and rationalists. They sound more like Thomas Jefferson and Tom Paine. Their very interesting enlightenment approach is like the Founding Fathers' kind: Skeptical about organized religion and clerics while still holding to an idea of God."

    One quirky fact: 33% of Nones claim Irish ancestry, although the U.S. Census says only 10% of the USA does.

    "We have no idea why," he says. "Maybe you could ask (Fox newscaster) Bill O'Reilly.

    In some way, researchers found Nones are very much like the overall, largely religious, U.S. population. There's no statistical difference on education, or income or marital status. They are just as likely to be divorced as anybody else.

    "Nones are not a fringe group anymore and are now part of Middle America. They're present in every socio-demographic group, Keysar concludes in their report.
    Hayastan or Bust.

  • #2
    Re: Trends in religion.

    "By Cathy Lynn Grossman"

    No further comments are needed.
    "Nobody can give you freedom. Nobody can give you equality or justice or anything. If you're a man, you take it." ~Malcolm X

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Trends in religion.

      Organized religion 'will be driven toward extinction' in 9 countries, experts predict


      Organized religion will all but vanish eventually from nine Western-style democracies, a team of mathematicians predict in a new paper based on census data stretching back 100 years.

      It won't die out completely, but "religion will be driven toward extinction" in countries including Ireland, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the Netherlands, they say.

      It will also wither away in Austria, the Czech Republic, Finland and Switzerland, they anticipate.


      They can't make a prediction about the United States because the U.S. census doesn't ask about religion, lead author Daniel Abrams told CNN.

      But nine other countries provide enough data for detailed mathematical modeling, he said.

      "If you look at the data, 'unaffiliated' is the fastest-growing group" in those countries, he said.

      "We start with two big assumptions based on sociology," he explained.

      The first is that it's more attractive to be part of the majority than the minority, so as religious affiliation declines, it becomes more popular not to be a churchgoer than to be one, he said - what Abrams calls the majority effect.

      "People are more likely to switch to groups with more members," he said.

      Social networks can have a powerful influence, he said.

      "Just a few connections to people who are (religiously) unaffiliated is enough to drive the effect," he said.

      The other assumption underlying the prediction is that there are social, economic and political advantages to being unaffiliated with a religion in the countries where it's in decline - what Abrams calls the utility effect.

      "The utility of being unaffiliated seems to be higher than affiliated in Western democracies," he said.

      Abrams and his co-authors are not passing any judgment on religion, he's quick to say - they're just modeling a prediction based on trends.

      "We're not trying to make any commentary about religion or whether people should be religious or not," he said.

      "I became interested in this because I saw survey data results for the U.S. and was surprised by how large the unaffiliated group was," he said, referring to a number of studies done by universities and think tanks on trends in religion.

      Studies suggest that "unaffiliated" is the fastest-growing religious group in the United States, with about 15% of the population falling into a category experts call the "nones."

      They're not necessarily atheists or non-believers, experts say, just people who do not associate themselves with a particular religion or house of worship at the time of the survey.

      Abrams had done an earlier study looking into the extinction of languages spoken by small numbers of people.

      When he saw the religion data, his co-author "Richard Wiener suggested we try to apply a similar technique to religious affiliation," Abrams said.

      The paper, by Abrams, Wiener and Haley A. Yaple, is called "A mathematical model of social group competition with application to the growth of religious non-affiliation." They presented it this week at the Dallas meeting of the American Physical Society.

      Only the Czech Republic already has a majority of people who are unaffiliated with religion, but the Netherlands, for example, will go from about 40% unaffiliated today to more than 70% by 2050, they expect.

      Even deeply Catholic Ireland will see religion die out, the model predicts.

      "They've gone from 0.04% unaffiliated in 1961 to 4.2% in 2006, our most recent data point," Abrams says.

      He admits that the increase in Muslim immigration to Europe may throw off the model, but he thinks the trend is robust enough to withstand some challenges.


      "Netherlands data goes back to 1860," he pointed out. "Every single data that we were able to find shows that people are moving from the affiliated to unaffiliated. I can't imagine that will change, but that's personal opinion, not what the data shows."

      But Barry Kosmin, a demographer of religion at Trinity College in Connecticut, is doubtful.

      "Religion relies on human beings. They aren't rational or predictable according to the laws of physics. Religious fervor waxes and wanes in unpredictable ways," he said.

      "The J3wish tradition that says prophecy is for fools and children is probably wise," he added.

      And Abrams, Wiener and Yaple are not the first to predict the end of religion.

      Peter Berger, a former president of the Society for the Scientific Study of Religion, once said that, "People will become so bored with what religious groups have to offer that they will look elsewhere."

      He said Protestantism "has reached the strange state of self-liquidation," that Catholicism was in severe crisis, and anticipated that "religions are likely to survive in small enclaves and pockets" in the United States.

      He made those predictions in February 1968.

      http://religion.blogs.cnn.com/2011/0...iref=obnetwork
      "Nobody can give you freedom. Nobody can give you equality or justice or anything. If you're a man, you take it." ~Malcolm X

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Trends in religion.

        "Trends clearly favor this," Kosmin says. But he also notes, "There could be a Great Awakening (massive Protestant revival) or immigration may bring in more Catholic believers."

        Kosmin and Ariela Keysar of Trinity College, Hartford, Conn., directed three editions of the American Religious Identification Survey over 18 years. The 2008 ARIS (pdf), based on a sampling of 54,000 U.S. adults, also burrowed in for a closer look at 1,106 Nones, who answered extra questions about their beliefs and behaviors and views on God.
        But Barry Kosmin, a demographer of religion at Trinity College in Connecticut, is doubtful.

        "Religion relies on human beings. They aren't rational or predictable according to the laws of physics. Religious fervor waxes and wanes in unpredictable ways," he said.
        Both articles that Haykakan and I posted were derived from the viewpoints of Barry Kosmin. So who is Barry Kosmin?

        PROF. BARRY A. KOSMIN
        EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR,
        INSTITUTE FOR J3WISH POLICY RESEARCH

        "Rethinking the J3wish World
        for the 21st century"



        PROF BARRY KOSMIN

        Barry Kosmin is currently Executive Director of the JPR/Institute for J3wish Policy Research, London and Associate Director of the AHRB Parkes Centre for J3wish/Non-J3wish Relations at the University of Southampton. Formerly he was Director of the Research Unit of the Board of Deputies of British J3ws; Director of Research for the North American Council of Federations, New York; Founding Director of the North American J3wish Data Bank at the City University of New York; Member of the Doctoral Faculty in Sociology at the City University of the New York Graduate School; and Fellow of the Institute for Advanced Studies, Hebrew University. He is joint editor of the academic journal Patterns of Prejudice and co-editor with Paul Iganski of A New Antisemitism: Debating Judeophobia in 21st Century Britain. Recent co-authored articles include 'The future of J3wish schooling in the United Kingdom', 'J3ws of the New South Africa', 'Patterns of Charitable Giving Among British J3ws', 'Social Attitudes of Unmarried Young J3ws in Contemporary Britain', 'Ethnic and Religious Questions in the 2001 Census of Population', 'North American Conservative J3wish Teenagers' Attachment to Israel', 'The Attachment of British J3ws to Israel'.

        http://www.mucjs.org/sherman05.htm
        Last edited by KanadaHye; 04-01-2011, 12:15 PM.
        "Nobody can give you freedom. Nobody can give you equality or justice or anything. If you're a man, you take it." ~Malcolm X

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Trends in religion.

          That study assumes that all those nations will stay more or less the way they are socially and politically. Since they made predictions, I will too. Europe is in for hard times, the right and far right will come back to power in many European countries, and religion won't be going away.
          For the first time in more than 600 years, Armenia is free and independent, and we are therefore obligated
          to place our national interests ahead of our personal gains or aspirations.



          http://www.armenianhighland.com/main.html

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Trends in religion.

            It is hard to know what to wish for . I would be wishing for a steady uniform progress towards secularism were it not for the current Islamic situation . However in the long run Islamic countries will start a very rapid progression down the secular path especially after the recent revolutions in the ME . The best thing to help that along is not to be Islamophobic in foreign policy .

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Trends in religion.

              Originally posted by wombat View Post
              It is hard to know what to wish for . I would be wishing for a steady uniform progress towards secularism were it not for the current Islamic situation . However in the long run Islamic countries will start a very rapid progression down the secular path especially after the recent revolutions in the ME . The best thing to help that along is not to be Islamophobic in foreign policy .
              How did you come to the conclusion that Arab nations will become secular?
              For the first time in more than 600 years, Armenia is free and independent, and we are therefore obligated
              to place our national interests ahead of our personal gains or aspirations.



              http://www.armenianhighland.com/main.html

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Trends in religion.

                Because Arabs have brains to and can figure out a bulls-h-i-t storry when they see one. Organized religion is one of the worst things ever created by man bringing him pain, suffering, wars, persecution and death. I hope it dies out fast everywhere good bye and good riddens!
                Hayastan or Bust.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Trends in religion.

                  Originally posted by Haykakan View Post
                  Because Arabs have brains to and can figure out a bulls-h-i-t storry when they see one. Organized religion is one of the worst things ever created by man bringing him pain, suffering, wars, persecution and death. I hope it dies out fast everywhere good bye and good riddens!
                  Sorry bro, J3ws are here to stay. Either have to be smarter than them or admit defeat.
                  "Nobody can give you freedom. Nobody can give you equality or justice or anything. If you're a man, you take it." ~Malcolm X

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Trends in religion.

                    I dont have problems with all xxxs, my beef is with the zionists. Your statement there is in absolute terms which is typical of religous people but does not reflect reality. We Armenians are not in competition with the xxxs as a matter of fact we have much in common which should be used to build relations with our peoples. Zionists however are the scumm of the earth no better then fascist nazis were.
                    Hayastan or Bust.

                    Comment

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