Regional geopolitics

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Was Russia warplane downing an overreaction?
By Jonathan Marcus
Defence and diplomatic correspondent
24 November 2015
BBC


A combination picture taken from video shows a war plane crashing in flames in a mountainous area in northern Syria after it was shot down by Turkish fighter jets near the Turkish-Syrian borderImage copyrightReuters
Syria's war

Turkey's downing of Russian warplane - what we know
Iran's growing role in Syria's war
Washington struggles for clear line on Syria
What is Russia's endgame in Syria?

There have been several incursions by Russian jets into Turkish airspace since Moscow's air campaign in Syria began. Turkey has also shot down Syrian aircraft that intruded across the border.

Ankara has championed its tough rules of engagement, and so nobody could have been in any doubt that if combat aircraft strayed into Turkey again, they might receive a robust response.

But this episode is a little more complicated than that.
Of course, the two sides' accounts differ. Russian President Vladimir Putin insists that the aircraft was not in Turkish airspace and was actually shot down over Syrian territory.
The Turks say the aircraft was warned about entering Turkey several times, and, when it did not change course, was shot down.

The problem is that according to a radar map released by the Turks themselves, the Russian Sukhoi could at best be described as crossing over Turkish territory.
It flew over a small piece of Turkey that projects into Syria - a tiny isthmus of land that would have taken the fast jet only a few moments to fly over.
So if the plane was shot down, as the Turks say, after entering Turkish airspace, you could equally say it was downed on the way out of Turkish territory too.

Map of Syria showing approximate location of Russian Su-24 crash site

There is of course a back-story here as well. Russian air power has been assisting recent ground attacks by the Syrian army against Turkmen militia forces in northern Syria.
These groups are backed, and to some extent armed, by the Turkish authorities, and Ankara has taken a very dim view of Russia's air strikes against them.

So did the Turks overreact to a Russian incursion? Or was Ankara itching for an opportunity to send a robust message to Moscow?

Either way, Russia and Turkey are not at war, and despite some tough rhetoric, especially from Mr Putin, this episode may ultimately be put down to experience.
However, it all comes at a very delicate moment and it highlights once again the complexity of Syria's multiple conflicts.

The downing of the Russian airliner claimed by the Islamic State group in Egypt last month, and Moscow's onslaught against IS targets appeared to suggest that Russia, the West and the moderate Arab States were coming into alignment.
But as the Russian air attacks against Turkmen positions show, Moscow is still intent on bolstering the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad against some of its other opponents, whatever may be happening on the counter-IS front.

Turkey is deeply hostile to the Syrian regime and wants to see the back of Mr Assad as soon as possible. So in this sense, it is at loggerheads with Moscow.
Turkey, like Iran, the Saudis and the moderate Arab states, all have a stake in what kind of Syria emerges from this crisis - as, to an extent, does Russia.
The US and its Western allies do not much like Mr Assad and see him as very much part of the problem, but their main battle is against IS.

These two wars - the struggle for Syria's future and that against IS - overlap to a considerable extent, but they are far from being the same.
The Turkish downing of a Russian jet is a reminder that there is a lot more going on here than just the counter-IS struggle.

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

ARMENIAN SECURITY FORCES PREVENT POSSIBLE TERRORIST ACT IN YEREVAN

12:11, 25 Nov 2015
Siranush Ghazanchyan

An Armenian National Security Service task force combating terrorism
(Alfa) and workers of the Armenian Police's head department combating
organized crime have reportedly "neutralized" a group of armed people
in Yerevan that allegedly planned to carry out terrorist acts in the
Armenian capital.

According to the report, the group of ten people was armed with modern
weapons. ammunition and explosives and was planning large-scale
terrorist acts in capital Yerevan. Three of the alleged terrorists
were female, seven were male, most of them foreign citizens.

The group illegally bought and stored the weapons in one of the
houses in the capital's Nork Marash district. The group was headed
by RA citizen Arthur Vardanyan, who returned to Yerevan in 2015 after
years abroad.

http://www.armradio.am/en/2015/11/25/armenian-security-forces-prevent-possible-terrorist-act-in-yerevan/

[londontsi]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Obama: 'Turkey has the right to defend its airspace'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-34915752

You have to watch the end of is speech.

He says "Russia is welcome to join this broad based coalition we have created."

What a cheek.

,

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

TURKEY 'ENTERS INTO A WAR'...ON THE SIDE OF ISIS: ITALIAN SENAT'S VP

22:29, 24 Nov 2015
Siranush Ghazanchyan

Turkey has entered the war on the side of the Islamic State, the
Vice President of the Italian Senate Roberto Calderoli said after a
Russian Su-24 jet was downed over Syria with an air-to-air missile
launched by a Turkish F-16 fighter, Sputnik News reports.

On Tuesday morning a Russian Su-24 fighter jet crashed in Syria with
two people aboard. Ankara claims Turkish F-16s shot down the plane
because it violated the country's airspace. Contrary to Turkey's
accusations, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the aircraft was
0.6 miles away from Turkey when it was shot down.

"Turkey has officially entered the war on the side of ISIS by downing
at the order of [President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan a Russian aircraft
which has participated in operations against Islamic terrorists in
Syria," the leading member of the Northern League (Lega Nord) Party
wrote on his Facebook page.

According to Calderoli, Turkey is a "'Trojan Horse' with which
assistance the Islamic fundamentalism would like to take a clear shot
at the West."

"Why is Turkey still in NATO after what happened? What else can be
expected of the UN apart from taking a strong stand on ISIS and its
allies?" Calderoli wondered.

The politician has also criticized Rome's official stance.

"The Government [of Matteo Renzi] is on the wrong side with [German
Chancellor Angela] Merkel, instead of taking the side of Putin in
this war to defend our values, our freedom and our traditions,"
Calderoli wrote.

http://sputniknews.com/politics/20151124/1030680429/turkey-isil-war-su24.html#ixzz3sQyIeF3w

http://www.armradio.am/en/2015/11/24/turkey-enters-into-a-war-on-the-side-of-isis-italian-senats-vp/

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Obama: 'Turkey has the right to defend its airspace'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-34915752

You have to watch the end of is speech.

He says "Russia is welcome to join this broad based coalition we have created."

What a cheek.

,

You mean the coalition that arms and protects terrorists as they destroy one country after another after another after another.......?

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Israeli Colonel Caught with IS Pants Down


Column: Politics

Region: Middle East

Country: Israel



345345435This was definitely not supposed to happen. It seems that an Israeli military man with the rank of colonel was “caught with IS pants down.” By that I mean he was captured amid a gaggle of so-called IS–or Islamic State or ISIS or DAESH depending on your preference–terrorists, by soldiers of the Iraqi army. Under interrogation by the Iraqi intelligence he apparently said a lot regarding the role of Netanyahu’s IDF in supporting IS.

In late October an Iranian news agency, quoting a senior Iraqi intelligence officer, reported the capture of an Israeli army colonel, named Yusi Oulen Shahak, reportedly related to the ISIS Golani Battalion operating in Iraq in the Salahuddin front. In a statement to Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency a Commander of the Iraqi Army stated, “The security and popular forces have held captive an Israeli colonel.” He added that the IDF colonel “had participated in the Takfiri ISIL group’s terrorist operations.” He said the colonel was arrested together with a number of ISIL or IS terrorists, giving the details: “The Israeli colonel’s name is Yusi Oulen Shahak and is ranked colonel in Golani Brigade… with the security and military code of Re34356578765az231434.”

Why Israel?

Ever since the beginning of Russia’s very effective IS bombing of select targets in Syria on September 30, details of the very dirty role of not only Washington, but also NATO member Turkey under President Erdogan, Qatar and other states has come into the sunlight for the first time.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that at least a faction in the Obama Administration has played a very dirty behind-the-scenes role in supporting IS in order to advance the removal of Syrian President Bashar al Assad and pave the way for what inevitably would be a Libya-style chaos and destruction which would make the present Syrian refugee crisis in Europe a mere warmup by comparison.

The “pro-IS faction” in Washington includes the so-called neo-conservatives centered around disgraced former CIA head and executioner of the Iraqi “surge” General David Petraeus. It also includes US General John R. Allen, who since September 2014 had served as President Obama’s Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) and, until she resigned in February 2013, it included Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Significantly, General John Allen, an unceasing advocate of a US-led “No Fly Zone” inside Syria along the border to Turkey, something President Obama refused, was relieved of his post on 23 October, 2015. That was shortly after launch of the highly-effective Russian strikes on Syrian IS and Al Qaeda’s Al Nusra Front terrorist sites changed the entire situation in the geopolitical picture of Syria and the entire Middle East.

UN Reports cites Israel

That Netanyahu’s Likud and the Israeli military work closely with Washington’s neo-conservative war-hawks is well-established, as is the vehement opposition of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran. Israel regards the Iranian-backed Shi’a Islamist militant group, Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, as arch foe. Hezbollah has been actively fighting alongside the Syrian Army against ISIS in Syria. General Allen’s strategy of “bombings of ISIS” since he was placed in charge of the operation in September 2014, as Russia’s Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov have repeatedly pointed out, far from destroying ISIS in Syria, had vastly expanded their territorial control of the country. Now it becomes clear that that was precisely the intent of Allen and the Washington war faction.

Since at least 2013 Israeli military have also openly bombed what they claim were Hezbollah targets inside Syria. Investigation revealed that in fact Israel was hitting Syrian military and Hezbollah targets who are valiantly fighting against ISIS and other terrorists. De facto thereby Israel was actually helping ISIS, like General John Allen’s year-long “anti-ISIS” bombings.

That a faction in the Pentagon has secretly worked behind-the-scenes to train, arm and finance what today is called ISIS or IS in Syria is now a matter of open record. In August 2012, a Pentagon document classified “Secret,” later declassified under pressure of the US NGO Judicial Watch, detailed precisely the emergence of what became the Islamic State or ISIS emerging from the Islamic State in Iraq, then an Al Qaeda affiliate.

The Pentagon document stated, “…there is the possibility of establishing a declared or undeclared Salafist Principality in eastern Syria (Hasaka and Der Zor), and this is exactly what the supporting powers to the opposition [to Assad-w.e.] want, in order to isolate the Syrian regime, which is considered the strategic depth of the Shia expansion (Iraq and Iran).” The supporting powers to the opposition in 2012 then included Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the USA and behind-the-scenes, Netanyahu’s Israel.

Precisely this creation of a “Salafist Principality in eastern Syria,” today’s territory of ISIL or IS, was the agenda of Petraeus, General Allen and others in Washington to destroy Assad. It’s what put the Obama Administration at loggerhead with Russia, China and Iran over the bizarre US demand Assad must first go before ISIS can be destroyed. Now the game is in the open for the world to see Washington’s duplicity in backing what the Russian’s accurately call “moderate terrorists” against a duly-elected Assad. That Israel is also in the midst of this rats’ nest of opposition terrorist forces in Syria was confirmed in a recent UN report.

What the report did not mention was why Israeli IDF military would have such a passionate interest in Syria, especially Syria’s Golan Heights.

Why Israel wants Assad Out

In December, 2014 the Jerusalem Post in Israel reported the findings of a largely ignored, and politically explosive report detailing UN sightings of Israeli military together with ISIS terrorist combatants. The UN peacekeeping force, UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), stationed since 1974 along the Golan Heights border between Syria and Israel, revealed that Israel had been working closely with Syrian opposition terrorists, including Al Qaeda’s Al Nusra Front and IS in the Golan Heights, and “kept close contact over the past 18 months.” The report was submitted to the UN Security Council. Mainstream media in the US and West buried the explosive findings.

The UN documents showed that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) were maintaining regular contact with members of the so-called Islamic State since May of 2013. The IDF stated that this was only for medical care for civilians, but the deception was broken when the UNDOF observers identified direct contact between IDF forces and ISIS soldiers, including giving medical care to ISIS fighters. Observations even included the transfer of two crates from the IDF to ISIS forces, the contents of which have not been confirmed. Further the UN report identified what the Syrians label a “crossing point of forces between Israel and ISIS,” a point of concern UNDOF brought before the UN Security Council.

The UNDOF was created by a May, 1974 UN Security Council Resolution No. 350 in the wake of tensions from the October 1973 Yom Kippur War between Syria and Israel. It established a buffer zone between Israel and Syria’s Golan Heights according to the 1974 Disengagement of Forces Agreement, to be governed and policed by the Syrian authorities. No military forces other than UNDOF are permitted within it. Today it has 1,200 observers.

Since 2013 and the escalation of Israeli attacks on Syria along the Golan Heights, claiming pursuit of “Hezbollah terrorists,” the UNDOF itself has been subject to massive attacks by ISIS or Al Qaeda’s Al Nusra Front terrorists in the Golan Heights for the first time since 1974, of kidnappings, of killings, of theft of UN weapons and ammunition, vehicles and other assets, and the looting and destruction of facilities. Someone obviously does not want UNDOF to remain policing the Golan Heights.

Israel and Golan Heights Oil

In his November 9 White House meeting with US President Obama, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu asked Washington to reconsider the fact that since the 1967 Six-Days’ War between Israel and the Arab countries, Israel has illegally occupied a significant part of the Golan Heights. In their meeting, Netanyahu, apparently without success, called on Obama to back formal Israeli annexation of the illegally-occupied Golan Heights, claiming that the absence of a functioning Syrian government “allows for different thinking” concerning the future status of the strategically important area.

Of course Netanyahu did not address in any honest way how Israeli IDF and other forces had been responsible for the absence of a functioning Syrian government by their support for ISIS and Al Nusra Front of Al Qaeda.

In 2013, when UNDOF began to document increasing contact between Israeli military and IS and Al Qaeda along the Golan Heights, a little-known Newark, New Jersey oil company, Genie Energy, with an Israeli daughter company, Afek Oil & Gas, began also moving into Golan Heights with permission of the Netanyahu government to explore for oil. That same year Israeli military engineers overhauled the forty-five mile border fence with Syria, replacing it with a steel barricade that included barbed wire, touch sensors, motion detectors, infrared cameras, and ground radar, putting it on par with the Wall Israel has constructed in the West Bank.

Interestingly enough, on October 8, Yuval Bartov, chief geologist from Genie Energy’s Israeli subsidiary, Afek Oil & Gas, told Israel’s Channel 2 TV that his company had found a major oil reservoir on the Golan Heights: “We’ve found an oil stratum 350 meters thick in the southern Golan Heights. On average worldwide, strata are 20 to 30 meters thick, and this is 10 times as large as that, so we are talking about significant quantities.” As I noted in an earlier article, the International Advisory Board of Genie Energy includes such notorious names as xxxx Cheney, former CIA head and infamous neo-con James Woolsey, Jacob Lord Rothschild and others.

Of course no reasonable person in their right mind would suggest there might be a link between Israeli military dealings with the ISIS and other anti-Assad terrorists in Syria, especially in the Golan Heights, and the oil find of Genie Energy in the same place, and with Netanyahu’s latest Golan Heights “rethink” appeal to Obama. That would smell too much like “conspiracy theory” and all reasonable people know conspiracies don’t exist, only coincidences. Or? In fact, to paraphrase the immortal words of Brad Pitt in the role of West Virginia First Lieutenant Aldo Raine in the final scene of Tarantino’s brilliant film, Inglorious Basterds, it seems that ‘Ol Netanyahu and his pecker-suckin pals in the IDF and Mossad just got caught with their hands in a very dirty cookie jar in Syria.

F. William Engdahl is strategic risk consultant and lecturer, he holds a degree in politics from Princeton University and is a best-selling author on oil and geopolitics, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
First appeared: http://journal-neo.org/2015/11/25/is...is-pants-down/
- See more at: http://journal-neo.org/2015/11/25/is....L4uC0sDv.dpuf

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

DOWNING OF RUSSIAN SU-24 LOOKS LIKE A PLANNED PROVOCATION - LAVROV

Published time: 25 Nov, 2015 11:34Edited time: 25 Nov, 2015 12:52

http://on.rt.com/6xjg

Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov. © Iliya Pitalev /
Sputnik 40312 The downing of a Russian warplane in Syria by Turkey
appears to be a pre-planned provocation, the Russian Foreign Minister
said. Ankara failed to communicate with Russia over the incident,
he added.

TrendsRussian anti-terror op in Syria

LIVE UPDATES: Russian warplane shot down at Syria-Turkey border

"We have serious doubts that this act was unintentional. It looks very
much like a preplanned provocation," Lavrov said, citing Turkey's
failure to maintain proper communication with Russia, the abundance
of footage of the incident and other evidence.

Lavrov added that many Russian partners called the incident "an
obvious ambush."

Earlier in the day, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu slammed
Russia for "attacks on Turkmen" in Syria, which according to Ankara
preceded the incident with the downed Su-24.

The Russian FM said the region where the incident happened is not
just home to Turkmen people. There are also hundreds of foreign
fighters affiliated with known terrorist groups and elements of
their infrastructure such as weapons depots and command points there,
he said.

"I asked [Turkish FM CavuÅ~_oglu] whether Turkey's close attention to
this region, including the calls to create a buffer zone there, was
motivated by a desire to protect this infrastructure from destruction.

I didn't receive any reply to this question," Lavrov said.

READ MORE: Ankara defends ISIS, Turkish officials have financial
interest in oil trade with group - PM Medvedev

He added the downing of the Russian warplane occurred shortly after
a series of airstrikes on terrorist oil convoys and facilities by
the Russian Air Force. The incident "sheds new light" on the issue,
according to the Russian foreign minister.

The Russian diplomat criticized NATO for failing to express condolences
to Russia over the loss of its troops lives.

"Very strange statements were voiced after a NATO meeting called by the
Turks, which didn't express any regret or condolences and in effect
were aimed at covering up what the Turkish Air Force did yesterday,"
Lavrov said. "A similar reaction came from the European Union."

Lavrov reiterated the statements of the Russian Defense Ministry,
which denied Ankara's allegations that the Russian warplane had
violated Turkish airspace.

He added that even if Turkey's words were taken on face value,
its actions contradict its own position expressed in 2012, after
Syria took down a Turkish military plane. At the time, then-Prime
Minister Erdogan told the Turkish parliament that a short incursion
into another nation's airspace cannot justify an attack on it.

Russia's relations with Syria will change after the attack on the
Russian plane, Lavrov said, adding that Turkey, which is now calling
for dialogue, should have done more to communicate with Russia prior
to and right after the incident.

Moscow will measure its response to limit the harm done to Turkish
and Russian businessmen, who had nothing to do with the incident,
and would decide on a proper action, Lavrov said.

"We cannot fail to react to what happened. Not because we must
retaliate. It's just that there are too many issues in Turkey that pose
a direct terrorist threat to our citizens. And not only ours," he said.

Lavrov said after canceling his planned visit to Istanbul that Moscow
doesn't indent to send any senior officials to Turkey or receive any
senior Turkish officials. At the same time, phone channels remain open,
as evidenced by the call with Foreign Minister Mevlut CavuÅ~_oglu.

The Russian minister said there was a question of American involvement
in the downing of the Russian plane. According to his sources, the
US demands all members of the anti-IS coalition led by Washington,
who use US-made military aircraft, coordinate all deployments with
the US military.

"I wonder if this demand of the Americans covers... Turkey. If it
does, I wonder whether Turkey asked permission from the US to fly
its US-made planes and take down - let's say 'an unidentified' -
plane over Syrian territory," Lavrov said.

The senior Russian diplomat said the problems at the Turkish-Syrian
border could be solved by simply closing it, as suggested by French
President Francois Hollande during his meeting with US President
Barack Obama in Washington.

"President Hollande suggested measures to close the Turkish-Syrian
border to stop the flow of militants and finances to terrorists. It's
remarkable that President Obama didn't react to it. I believe it's a
good suggestion and that during the visit tomorrow President Hollande
will tell us details. We are prepared to consider these measures in
earnest. Many people say that sealing the border would effectively
eliminate the terrorist threat in Syria," Lavrov said.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCv3mRQLk1U

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Russian and Syrian special forces have freed the second pilot of a Russian warplane shot down by Turkey and he is now at a Russian air base in Syria, the defence minister said Wednesday.


"The operation ended successfully. The second pilot has been brought to our base. He is alive and well," Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said.

"I would like to thank all our guys who worked at great risk all night and finished this job at around 3:40 am (0040 GMT)," Shoigu said in televised comments.

President Vladimir Putin later confirmed the second pilot was "saved" and "he and the other participants.. including in the rescue operation will be awarded state honours."

The plane's other pilot who died as he was fired at from the ground will posthumously be given Russia's highest award for valour, the Hero of Russia medal, Putin said.

Shoigu also said that Russia is sending its most hi-tech air defence system to its air base in Syria to help bolster its firepower over the war-torn country after the downing of its jet.

"The S-400 anti-aircraft missile system will be deployed to the Hmeimim airbase," Shoigu was quoted as saying by Russian news agencies.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/monde/2015/11/25/31002-20151125ARTFIG00097-turquie-russie-france-la-coalition-impossible.php

Turquie, Russie, France : la coalition impossible ?
FIGARO
Par Eléonore de Vulpillières
Publié le 25/11/2015

Ancien élève de l'École spéciale militaire de St-Cyr puis de l'École des officiers de la Gendarmerie nationale, Hadrien Desuin est titulaire d'un master II en relations internationales et stratégie sur la question des Chrétiens d'Orient, de leurs diasporas et la géopolitique de l'Égypte, réalisé au Centre d'Études et de Documentation Économique Juridique et social (CNRS/MAE) au Caire en 2005.

Il a dirigé le site Les Conversations françaises de 2010 à 2012. Aujourd'hui il collabore à Causeur et Conflits où il suit l'actualité de la diplomatie française dans le monde.
LE FIGARO. - Depuis le début de l'intervention russe en Syrie, les incidents de frontières se multiplient entre Ankara et Moscou. Violations de l'espace aérien turc par la Russie, interception d'avions militaires russes par des chasseurs turcs, drone russe abattu le 16 octobre… L'avion de combat russe abattu aujourd'hui par deux F-16 turcs se noie-t-il dans la masse de ces incidents de frontières ou bien est-ce plus grave?
Hadrien DESUIN. - Les relations entre la Turquie et la Russie se sont considérablement aggravées depuis que les Russes ont entamé une véritable opération de reconquête de la Syrie au profit de Bachar Al-Assad au mois de septembre. Si les violations de frontières sont courantes, la destruction d'un avion de chasse et la mort des deux pilotes ne sont pas anodins pour Moscou. Les positions radars des avions sont sujettes à caution car leur précision n'est pas si évidente à établir à une telle vitesse et la guerre de communication fait rage. Chacun peut estimer de bonne ou de mauvaise foi qu'il est dans son bon droit.

Cela étant, une violation même répétée de frontière ne justifie pas un tir de destruction, d'autant que les cibles russes ne sont clairement pas en Turquie mais en Syrie. L'avion s'est finalement écrasé à 4km de la frontière turque et les pilotes auraient été tués par «les rebelles modérés syriens». Les conséquences diplomatiques sont trop graves pour être accidentelles. Sans doute que la Turquie a voulu envoyer un signal fort à la Russie après que des villages turkmènes ont été mis en difficulté côté syrien de la frontière ces derniers jours. Cela fait quatre ans que la Turquie fait des incursions sur le territoire syrien pour appuyer ses djihadistes; elle a mené plusieurs opérations terrestres en profondeur pour protéger des sites historiques et voilà qu'elle s'offusque d'un bref passage aérien. S'il n'y avait pas ces morts, on pourrait rire des réactions turques.

Le ministre des Affaires étrangères russe, Sergueï Lavrov a annulé sa visite prévue mercredi en Turquie. Ankara avait convoqué l'ambassadeur russe samedi 20 novembre après des frappes près de sa frontière. Que penser de cette escalade de tensions ?

Il s'agit des gesticulations diplomatiques habituelles. Chacun est dans son rôle après ce type d'incident. Les opinions publiques respectives, enivrées par la presse, sont avides de réponses musclées. Chacun des camps va bomber le torse avec rappels d'ambassadeurs, communiqués martiaux et peut être quelques mesures de rétorsions essentiellement économiques et des mouvements de troupes. Les alliés occidentaux de la Turquie témoignent de leur solidarité mais vont calmer le jeu en sous main. Les Européens et l'OTAN n'ont pas l'intention de s'embarquer dans une guerre mondiale pour une escarmouche frontalière.

La pression va naturellement redescendre à la normale car la Turquie et la Russie ont eux mêmes trop à perdre dans un conflit direct de haute intensité.

Surtout la Russie cherche à asseoir son nouveau leadership en Syrie. Trouver une issue politique pour isoler de la coalition les alliés djihadistes des puissances turco-saoudiennes est la priorité de Poutine. En fond de tableau, il y a les projets d'intérêts mutuels turco-russes de gazoducs pour contourner l'Ukraine et alimenter l'Europe du sud.

«La perte d'aujourd'hui est un coup de poignard dans le dos qui nous a été porté par les complices des terroristes.» Vladimir Poutine est-il en train d'attaquer frontalement l'ambiguïté entretenue par Erdogan sur sa lutte contre l'Etat islamique?

La déclaration est spectaculaire parce qu'elle renvoie aux heures les plus sombres de notre histoire. Cela dit force est de constater que la Turquie est un frein évident à la lutte contre Daech d'autant que sa situation géographique la rend incontournable dans le conflit. Si elles perdurent les provocations turques vont finir par réveiller l'ogre russe.

Al Baghdadi est le meilleur ennemi d'Erdogan et tous deux profitent de leur frontière commune pour financer leurs trafics en tout genre. Poutine va sans doute chercher à démasquer leur petit jeu. Surtout si les Turcs attisent la crise en Crimée via les Tatars.

L'incident de Yamadi peut être habilement exploité par Vladimir Poutine à la suite des attentats de Paris qui ont accentué la pression internationale sur Daech. Le Kremlin peut accuser les turcs de ne pas être des partenaires fiables pour la coalition anti-Daech, d'où une rhétorique sur le thème de la trahison, et du coup de poignard dans le dos. La formidable offensive russe rend impossible les ambitions turques de placer un régime frère à Damas ce qui irrite Ankara.

L'incident aérien peut aussi s'apparenter à une tentative turque pour casser l'alliance de fait entre Washington et Moscou contre Daech. Mais ni Obama ni Poutine ne sont assez stupides pour tomber dans ce piège.

Va-t-on vers une clarification des positions prises par la Russie et par la Turquie dans le conflit syrien?
Bachar est le nœud gordien qui sépare les coalisés. La Russie et la Turquie préfèrent s'opposer par ennemis interposés comme dans une guerre froide régionale. D'autant que la position américaine est paradoxalementplus proche de la Russie que de la Turquie; Washington n'ignore pas l'agenda caché d'Erdogan et livre en armes ses pires amis YPG (kurdes syriens). La priorité américaine est de détruire Daech, la chute de Bachar est devenue très secondaire. Pour la Turquie c'est l'inverse.
Les positions des uns et des autres sont donc très claires, seulement la presse entretient quelque peu le flou quant à la nature des rebelles syriens que la France soutient. Partout on clame que la France est en pointe dans la lutte contre l'Etat islamique mais la doctrine Fabius «ni Bachar ni Daech» n'a pas varié d'un pouce. Ce qui entretient une certaine ambiguïté sur nos alliances dans la région.

Ces groupes djihadistes (Jaïch Al Islam et Ahrar el Sham) qui luttent contre Bachar n'ont pas grand chose à envier à Daech. Leurs méfaits sont moins spectaculaires car leurs parrains sunnites (arabe, turc ou qatari) exigent une certaine discrétion quant à leur combat commun avec la branche syrienne d'Al Qaeda. Mais le projet politique est le même: le califat. Le président turc se rêve en Sultan ottoman. Les groupes djihadistes luttent pour leur calife ou leur émir, c'est tout ce qui les distingue. Après tout, Daech veut aussi la chute de Bachar Al Assad, mais le printemps arabe que les rebelles djihadistes dit modérés veulent répandre est aux antipodes de celui envisagé en 2011. Leur modèle c'est la Libye. On ne peut pas continuellement soutenir une politique étrangère turque d'apprenti sorcier sans songer aux conséquences.

La France et ses alliés sunnites dispersent leurs efforts dans un combat d'arrière garde. Le printemps arabe démocratique n'est plus d'actualité en Syrie quand il est appuyé de l'extérieur par Erdogan et les émirs salafistes du Golfe. Et de l'intérieur par des brigades rebelles djihadistes qui n'ont pas de leçon de démocratie et de respect des droits de l'Homme à donner à Bachar Al Assad.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

LA TURQUIE A CESSE D'ETRE NOTRE ALLIEE
Par Renaud Girard
Le Figaro

http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/monde/2015/11/25/31002-20151125ARTFIG00062-la-turquie-a-cesse-d-etre-notre-alliee.php

En 1952, trois ans après sa création, l’Otan reçut la Turquie comme membre à part entière. Durant toute la guerre froide, la République turque, alors encore kémaliste, se comporta en fidèle allié de l’Occident. Il n’y eut qu’une seule anicroche. C’était en 1974. Prenant prétexte du coup d’Etat militaire ourdi par le régime des colonels d’Athènes contre Mgr Makarios, qui venait d’être réélu président de la République de Chypre, l’armée turque envahit le Nord de l’île et s’empara de 38% du territoire. Elle ne les a pas toujours rendus. Après la chute du mur de Berlin, la Turquie continua à s’afficher aux côtés des Occidentaux.

En 1991, l’armée turque participe à la coalition militaire dirigée par l’Amérique pour libérer le Koweït envahi par l’armée irakienne. En 2002, en Afghanistan, c’est un général turc qui commande la Force internationale d’assistance et de sécurité, structure militaire montée par les Occidentaux pour soutenir la « reconstruction » et la « démocratisation » du pays, dont ses maîtres talibans viennent d’être chassés par les Américains.

Les choses vont changer à partir de l’accession au pouvoir à Ankara des islamo-conservateurs du parti AKP (parti de la justice et du développement). Depuis 2003, c’est son fondateur, le Frère musulman Recep Erdogan, qui façonne la politique étrangère turque, avec son lieutenant Ahmet Davutoglu. Leur doctrine est le néo-ottomanisme : la Turquie doit retrouver son influence partout où régna jadis l’Empire ottoman. Comme cet expansionnisme est décrit comme pacifique par Erdogan et Davutoglu, les Occidentaux ne réagissent pas. Certains sourient, d’autres rient jaune, mais personne n’ose faire la moindre remarque au susceptible et autoritaire Erdogan. A partir de 2009, le dirigeant (dont la femme et les filles sont voilées) va systématiquement détruire le partenariat stratégique que la Turquie entretenait avec Israël depuis 1949.

Mais il faudra attendre 2011 et la vague des révolutions arabes pour voir Erdogan jouer réellement avec le feu. Jusque-là, Erdogan était le meilleur ami du président syrien Bachar al-Assad. Mais comme celui-ci, méfiant à l’égard des Frères Musulmans, ne va pas accepter pas les conseils en « démocratisation » de celui-là. Vexé, Erdogan va tourner sa politique à 180 degrés et devenir le pire ennemi du régime syrien.
Le Turc laisse passer sur son territoire, vers la Syrie, tous les djihadistes accourus depuis le monde arabo-musulman ou depuis la France.
Lorsqu’en 2014, l’Etat islamique commence à prendre de l’importance, Erdogan n’hésite pas à pactiser secrètement avec lui. Les agents du MIT (service de renseignement turc) laissent passer les armes vers les disciples du calife Ibrahim.
Lorsqu’ils sont blessés, les militants de l’Etat islamique sont soignés sur le territoire turc. En juillet 2014, les soldats fanatisés de Daech vont essayer de prendre la ville de Kobané (45000 habitants en temps normal), située tout au nord de la Syrie, le long de la frontière turque.
Les bombardements et les attaques suicides des islamistes vont se poursuivre jusqu’en juin 2015. La ville kurde se défend héroïquement, maison par maison, avec l’aide de l’aviation américaine. La Turquie d’Erdogan ne lèvera pas le plus petit doigt pour venir en aide aux assiégés de Kobané.

L’Europe est scandalisée par la tolérance que montre Ankara à l’égard des militants de l’Etat islamique.
Elle le fait savoir à Erdogan.
Pour la punir de ses leçons de morale, le président turc laisse passer des centaines de milliers de réfugiés musulmans moyen-orientaux vers ses rivages. Erdogan exploite à merveille la générosité naïve de la chancelière d’Allemagne, émue après que fut publiée la photo d’un garçonnet retrouvé noyé. En Turquie, la police, l’armée et la marine sont très fortes. On ne nous fera jamais croire qu’elles n’avaient pas les moyens de contrôler leurs côtes d’Asie mineure et de mettre fin au trafic maritime des êtres humains. Le 18 octobre 2015, recevant Angela Merkel à Ankara, Erdogan n’hésite pas à lui faire un chantage : ou bien vous m’accordez l’entrée sans visa dans l’Europe de tous les citoyens turcs, ou bien je continue à vous envoyer des milliers de réfugiés par semaine.
En ordonnant, le 24 novembre, d’abattre un avion russe qui bombardait les rebelles islamistes au nord de la Syrie, Erdogan veut tuer dans l’œuf la coalition internationale que le président français cherche à édifier contre l’Etat islamique.

Avec l’islamiste Erdogan à sa tête, la Turquie ne connaît plus à l’égard des Occidentaux que les rapports de force. Ce beau pays fut notre allié. Hélas, il ne l’est plus.