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Regional geopolitics

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  • Re: Regional geopolitics

    Radikal, Turkey
    Nov 25 2015


    The Crucial Trump Card Handed to Russia!


    by Fehim Tastekin
    [Groong note: Translated from Turkish]


    Those who think that, by downing the Russian plane, they have conveyed
    a message to the Kremlin, and have put a limit on Russia, are
    mistaken. The final barrier holding Russia back in Syria was the
    Turkish-Russian relationship. That barrier has now been demolished.

    Ankara, after the "revolution" train in Syria that it has been pushing
    along since 2011 ran up against the Russians, has now entered into an
    effort to hold "liberated zones" based on sensitivity for the
    Turkmens. This game, however, has brought the two countries into
    confrontation in a bad way with yesterday's downing of the Russian
    aircraft by the TSK [Turkish Armed Forces].

    The "latter-day Unionists" [comparing those in charge of Turkey's
    Syria policy to the late-Ottoman Committee of Union and Progress
    government] may applaud this as a first step aimed at forming a
    defensive line in the name of the "armed groups" supported by the trio
    of the Saudis, the Qataris, and the Turks.

    Those who perceive this as an effort to save face by a government
    whose red lines have been repeatedly xxxxxled upon, despite defiant
    fulminations of "let no one seek to test our strength," may also
    emerge. Or else some people might interpret this as showing Turkish
    power. And of course Ankara's immediate call for an urgent meeting in
    order to put NATO into the affair does not at all detract from the
    strutting pose of this arrogant interpretation, does it?!

    Everyone has been holding his breath, wondering "might Russia
    retaliate?", "if Russia responds militarily, what will NATO do?", and
    "might war break out?" At this stage, NATO may not be immediately
    brought into the affair, and it may act as if it has forgotten the
    motto of "one for all and all for one." Previously, when Syria hit a
    Turkish aircraft that entered its air space, Turkey's efforts to draw
    NATO in did not get a response. And the Patriots [air defence
    missiles] were sent with reluctance. Certainly if Russia responds, the
    situation will change, but under the current conditions, there is no
    basis for the alliance to implement Article Five of the North Atlantic
    Treaty. Because Turkey is not a victim. Its plane was not shot down;
    it shot down a plane.

    NATO no doubt is obliged to convey the image of standing alongside its
    ally, but the initial reaction is to the effect of the establishment
    of a dialogue that would, on an urgent basis, reduce the tension
    between Turkey and Russia. And the strategic ally, the United States,
    does not want to get caught up in this affair. Indeed, Pentagon
    Spokesman Colonel Steve Warren has said: "This is a matter between the
    Russian and Turkish governments. It is not an issue in which the
    United States is involved." President Barack Obama, as well, even if
    he backed Ankara by saying that "Turkey has the right to defend its
    air space," showed that he does not want a crisis with Russia: "Turkey
    and Russia need to talk with one another and be in direct contact so
    that this is not repeated. This problem involves Russia's operations.
    It is targeting oppositionists supported not only by Turkey but by a
    number of countries. Russia is a part of our broad coalition, and we
    do not have the right to say 'we do not want Russia.' Turkey and
    Russia should reduce the tension. Russia should focus more on the
    struggle against ISIL [Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant] than on
    supporting [Syrian President Bashar] Al-Asad." Obama is essentially
    trying to say: "Let Russia get the message, and let this affair be
    closed." Of course, on this point, the question of "did the United
    States encourage Ankara behind the scenes?" enters into play. Some
    people must certainly have had the bright idea that "no matter what,
    Russia does not want its game plan in Syria to go off the rails, and
    cannot risk a war with NATO." But when things become serious, the
    behind the scenes instigators have generally long since scuttled away.

    Well, will Russia get the message desired to be conveyed to it? Just
    on the contrary. The hitting of the aircraft, far from holding Russia
    back, could lead [Russian President Vladimir] Putin to plan even
    harder. From this standpoint, Turkey actually committed a serious
    error and handed a major trump card to Russia. Let us make a small
    observation with regard to the past two to three weeks in terms of how
    this trump card might be reflected on the ground: After a Russian
    passenger aircraft was brought down in the Sharm al-Shaykh region of
    Egypt, Russia stepped up the intensity of the war in Syria. The
    newspaper Pravda, which is the voice of the Kremlin, pointed with
    regard to the downed aircraft to the countries supporting the
    opposition and provided the following warning: "Qatar and Saudi Arabia
    are the countries financing and organizing the terrorists. These
    countries should now fear Russia a great deal." Russia's launching
    ballistic missiles from its warships in the Caspian at ISIL positions
    for the second time was a message to the countries that nourish the
    armed groups.

    Now, in contrast to the incident in Egypt, there is an incident with a
    "known perpetrator," and a clear showdown. What sort of a path this
    affair will put the Turkish-Russian relationship on is unknown, but a
    many-sided hardening of positions now awaits the region. Russia's
    response may not be aimed at Turkey directly, but rather at its Syria
    plans. In this context, it may, without holding itself back, attack
    the regions held by the armed groups, including the Bayir-Bujaq area
    on which Turkey is very sensitive. Russia was rather cautious on the
    issue of shifting the operation towards the Turkish border. In this,
    it had concern for the trade partnership with Turkey, and it also did
    not want the efforts launched in Vienna for a political solution to be
    torpedoed.

    Russia also restrained itself on another issue as well: Although it
    has an abundance of documentation regarding Turkey's dealings with the
    armed groups in Syria, it has not turned this into an open card to
    play. And its state media has been rather cautious when it has been a
    matter of Turkey. Following the downing of the civilian aircraft in
    Egypt, Russia provided warnings, both in the Syria meeting in Vienna
    and in the G-20 summit in Antalya, but without naming names, regarding
    the countries that finance ISIL through the petroleum trade. But now
    the spring is being let go all at once. Henceforth, the Russians are
    not going to shrink from turning the information in their possession
    into a weapon. Indeed, Putin launched the war of the dossiers
    yesterday by saying: "We have been aware for a long time that large
    quantities of petroleum from the regions held by the terrorists have
    gone to Turkey."

    The third area that this incident could impact is the negotiations for
    a political solution: Russia had favoured taking the military
    operations and the political process forward in parallel. It even, in
    order to be able to assemble the negotiating table, displayed a more
    flexible stance, at least ostensibly, towards the argument that "the
    transition process must bring an end to Al-Asad." Henceforth, the
    balance between the effort for a political solution and the military
    operations may be upset. And the atmospherics of the dialogue that
    moves the process forward may not be what they were before.

    And it is inevitable that this affair is going to trigger a war of
    arguments on international platforms.

    The hitting of the plane came during a period when, with a high dose
    of bombastic propaganda that "the Turkmens are being bombed," the
    public was kept ready for likely tensions. Ankara, asserting that
    Russia was bombing the Turkmen regions, is trying to portray its
    action as justified. But it is not so easy to find resonance in the
    international community to a cue in the form of "Turkmen villages are
    being bombed, and civilians are being killed." The world does not
    follow developments via the Anadolu Press Agency or the statements of
    Turkmen representatives working for MIT [National Intelligence
    Organization]. This incident could put Turkey not, as is thought, into
    the position of "the protector of the Turkmens" but rather into that
    of "the defender of the terrorist organizations" in the eyes of the
    international community.

    Because the things taking place in the region where the Russian
    aircraft were carrying out operations do not show Turkey's story as
    being all that accurate. The fact is, it is true that there are people
    in the Bayir-Bujaq area east of Latakia who have taken up arms to
    defend their own villages. But the fighting is taking place largely in
    the mountainous areas that are very difficult to reach. And the target
    of the operations is the organizations that have come together under
    the umbrella of the Army of Conquest [Jaysh al-Fatah]. For one thing,
    the leading organizations in the region are the Al-Qa'idah-linked
    Nusra Front and Ahrar al-Sham. Nusra is continually putting on a show
    by publishing images it has taken in Bayir-Bujaq. Yet another
    characteristic of this region is its being an area in which foreign
    jihadis who have not joined ISIL are based. Caucasian jihadis, and
    particularly Chechens, are very active in the region. The Harakat Sham
    al-Islam, formed by Moroccan jihadis, is also in this region.
    Likewise, Uyghurs as well, who have been put into the field during the
    recent months, are there as a new jihadi force. These groups are,
    ideologically, on the Al-Qa'idah line. In other words, they are only
    one shade lighter than ISIL, and that is all. As for the Turkmen
    units, which are much spoken about: For one thing, their strength is
    being very much exaggerated. Secondly, the Turkmens are operating in
    conjunction with Nusra. For instance, the Sultan Abdulhamid Brigade,
    which is very much in the forefront, is an ally of Nusra. This
    organization had declared that they were defending Ottoman
    territories, and were waging war against non-Muslims. And their
    enemies list is identical with the official rhetoric of Turkey:
    Al-Asad and the Kurds of the Rojava [Kurdish term for 'west,' used in
    reference to northern Syria].

    The Sultan Selim Brigade, which is one of those that has been most
    heard of, made its name known in 2012 by raiding an Alawite village.
    The record of these organizations, over which the alliance between the
    West and the Gulf trembles, is not clean. It was these organizations
    that raided Alawite villages in Latakia in 2013 and killed 200
    civilians. They called the operation "Aisha, the Mother of the Ummah
    [world community of Muslims]." And it was also these who seized Kasab
    in 2014 and drove out the Armenians.

    With this being the case, Turkey sent a letter to the UN Security
    Council and made the following claim: "These deplorable attacks
    against civilians cannot be portrayed as legitimate with the excuse of
    'we are combatting terrorism,' because there are no groups linked to
    DA'ISH (that is, ISIL), Al-Nusra, or Al-Qa'idah in the region."

    Turkey speaks of "deplorable attacks against civilians," but Sultan
    Abdulhamid Han Brigade spokesman Mustafa Abdullah, in a statement to
    AA [Anadolu Agency], speaks of a fierce battle. He says that "hundreds
    of dead, from the regime's troops, the Shi'i militias, and the
    terrorists of Mihrac Ural [referring to the "Acilciler," or "Urgency
    Group," a splinter faction of the Turkish People's Liberation
    Party/Front, THKP/C, operating in Turkey's Syrian border provinces]
    remained in Kizildag [Jabal al-Ahmar]." Opposition sources state that
    Nusra sent a 500-man reinforcement force from other regions. And
    sources with whom I have spoken say that even though the regime forces
    have seized some locations, they are having considerable difficulties.
    In other words, there is a fierce war raging there.


    Do you think that the international actors are unaware of this state
    of affairs in the region? The issue is not, as it has been presented,
    a simple sensitivity with regard to the Turkmens. If there were
    sincerity in the sensitivity regarding the Turkmens, then there would
    not have been silence in June of 2014 when ISIL killed the Turkmens in
    Mosul and in Tal Afar, or when the Turkmens fleeing the massacre were
    trapped between Mosul and Arbil. The town of Bashir was under siege by
    ISIL for months, and no one said a word. When the Turkmens in Taze
    Hurmatu and Tuz Hurmatu were resisting, Turkey was not at their side.
    (Last week, I listened to the Turkmens in Iraq; I am going to write in
    detail the things they experienced and what they did.)

    The issue is not the Turkmens, but rather relates to the calculations
    in terms of who will control this area if the line between Azaz and
    Jarabulus, which is in ISIL's control, should be abandoned. The issue
    relates to holding the areas held by Turkish-supported groups to the
    north of Aleppo and the rural areas of Idlib. Unfortunately, some
    Turkmens have also been used in this game.

    And in the end, what everyone had feared happened: Turkey did
    something that everyone had avoided doing even during the Cold War
    period, and became the first (in the last 62 years) NATO member to
    shoot down a Russian airplane. And from NATO's standpoint, it ceased
    to be a "predictable" country. It became an enemy of its most
    important neighbour and trading partner. And as for us, we have become
    unable to see the very nadir of strategic depth! [a reference to the
    book Stratejik Derinlik -Strategic Depth -by Prime Minister Ahmet
    Davutoglu]


    [Groong note: the above was translated from Turkish]

    Comment


    • Re: Regional geopolitics

      Ռուս-Թուրքական Առճակատումը Եւ Հայաստանը
      November 30, 2015
      ԹԱԹՈՒԼ ՅԱԿՈԲԵԱՆ Նոյեմբերի 24-ին Քեսապի երկնքում` Սիրիա - Թուրքիա սահմանին, թուրքական ռազմաօդային ուժերը խոցեցին Սիրիայում ռուսական տորմիղի մէջ մտնող Սու-24 ռմբակոծիչը: Թուրքական կողմը պնդեց, որ ռուսական ռմբակոծիչը խախտել էր իր օդային տարածքը, մինչդեռ Ռուսաստանը համոզուած է, որ Սու-24-ը  եղել է բա

      Tatul Hagopian/ԹԱԹՈՒԼ ՅԱԿՈԲԵԱՆ

      Նոյեմբերի 24-ին Քեսապի երկնքում` Սիրիա – Թուրքիա սահմանին, թուրքական ռազմաօդային ուժերը խոցեցին Սիրիայում ռուսական տորմիղի մէջ մտնող Սու-24 ռմբակոծիչը: Թուրքական կողմը պնդեց, որ ռուսական ռմբակոծիչը խախտել էր իր օդային տարածքը, մինչդեռ Ռուսաստանը համոզուած է, որ Սու-24-ը եղել է բացառապէս Սիրիայի տարածքում: Միջազգային հանրութիւնը` Թուրքիայի դաշնակիցներն առաջին հերթին, փորձեցին աւելի հաւասարակշիռ կեցուածք որդեգրել` կողմերին յորդորելով յաղթահարել դէպքի պատճառով առաջացած դիւանագիտական առճակատումը:

      Սիրիայի եւ նրա նախագահ Պաշշար Ասատի հարցում Մոսկուա-Անգարա տարակարծութիւնները խորացել էին հոկտեմբերին, երբ Ռուսաստանը ներգրաւուեց Սիրիայում ռազմական գործողութիւնների մէջ` օդային հարուածներ հասցնելով հակաասատեան ուժերին, առաջին հերթին` Իսլամական պետութեան թիրախներին: Թուրքական կողմը յայտարարեց, որ ռուսական օդանաւերը պարբերաբար խախտում են Թուրքիայի օդային սահմանը: Այս նախազգուշացումներից օրեր անց` հոկտեմբերի 6-ին եւ 7-ին, թուրքական ռազմական ուղղաթիռները խախտեցին Հայաստանի օդային սահմանը: Հայկական կողմի հարցմանն ի պատասխան` Անգարայից պարզաբանեցին, որ անբարենպաստ եղանակային պայմանները օդաչուներին ստիպել են փոխել թռիչքուղին:

      Հայ կամ ռուս ոեւէ բարձրաստիճան պաշտօնեայ հրապարակաւ չարձագանգեց թուրքական ռազմական ուղղաթիռների` հայկական օդային սահմանի խախտմանը: Փոխարէնը, յաջորդեց Գիւմրիից ռուսական ռազմական օդանաւերի ցուցադրական եւ բազմակի թռիչքները դէպի Հայաստան-Թուրքիա սահման: Այսպիսով, ռուս-թուրքական օդային առաջին միջադէպը հարթուեց:

      Ընդհանուր թշնամու` Իսլամական պետութիւն ահաբեկչական խմբաւորման առկայութիւնը Ռուսաստանին եւ Արեւմուտքին ստիպում է մի կողմ դնել բազմաթիւ տարակարծութիւնները, որոնք վերջին տարիներին յանգեցրել են Սառը պատերազմից յետոյ ամենախորը ճգնաժամին Ռուսաստանի եւ Արեւմուտքի միջեւ: Սինայի թերակղզու երկնքում ռուսական քաղաքացիական օդանաւի կործանումը եւ Փարիզի ահաբեկչութիւնների շարքը Ռուսաստան-Արեւմուտք մերձեցման առիթ ու հնարաւորութիւն տուեցին: Եւ ահա այս էական պահին թուրքերը խոցում են ռուսական Սու-24-ը:

      Եթէ անգամ ռուսները խախտել են թուրքական օդային սահմանը, ապա, միեւնոյնն է, Թուրքիայի գործողութիւնը անհամաչափ է: Իսկ եթէ թուրքական կողմը սպասում էր յարմար պահի, ինչում համոզուած են ռուսները, որպէսզի խոցէր Սու-24-ը, ապա դա խօսում է այն մասին, որ Անգարայի շահերին հակասում է Սիրիայի, Իսլամական պետութեան եւ ահաբեկչութեան դէմ պայքարի հարցերում Ռուսաստան-Արեւմուտք անխուսափելի մերձեցումը:

      Ուշագրաւ է, որ Ռուսաստանի նախագահ Վլատիմիր Փութինն ու Թուրքիայի նախագահ Ռեճեփ Թայիփ Էրտողանը միմեանց հասցէին հրապարակային յայտարարութիւններում աւելի շատ շեշտադրում են ոչ այնքան խոցուած Սու-24-ի միջադէպը, որքան` Սիրիայում Թուրքիայի ներգրաւուածութիւնը, մասնաւորապէս Անգարայի` Իսլամական պետութեան հետ համագործակցութիւնը:

      Հայաստանի պաշտպանութեան նախարարը Թուրքիայի կողմից ռուսական ինքնաթիռ խոցելու դէպքը որակեց հարուած միջազգային ահաբեկչութեան դէմ պայքարին: Սա միակ յայտարարութիւնն էր, որ արուեց հայկական կողմից:

      2014-ի նոյեմբերին, երբ ազրպէյճանական կողմը խոցեց հայկական Մի-24 ուղղաթիռը, Ռուսաստանն արձագանգեց արտաքին գործերի նախարարութեան խօսնակի մակարդակով: Ռուս դիւանագէտը ցաւ յայտնեց երեք հայ օդաչուների զոհուելու առիթով, ինչպէս նաեւ յիշեցրեց, որ Հայաստանի եւ Ազրպէյճանի ղեկավարները պարտաւորուել են ղարաբաղեան հակամարտութիւնը լուծել խաղաղ ճանապարհով:

      Պաշտօնական Երեւանն իր հրապարակային յայտարարութիւններում պէտք է զգուշ լինի, ուշադրութեամբ հետեւի իրադարձութիւններին եւ դրանցից առաջ չընկնի: Ռուսաստանը եւ Թուրքիան ունեն ընդհանուր շահեր եւ, չնայած հրապարակային կոշտ հռետորաբանութեանը, փորձելու են յաղթահարել ստեղծուած փակուղին:

      Այո՛, Ռուսաստանը Հայաստանի ռազմավարական դաշնակիցն է, Գիւմրիում է տեղակայուած ռուսական 102-րդ ռազմակայանը, Հայաստան-Թուրքիա սահմանը հսկում են նաեւ ռուս սահմանապահները: Պարզ տրամաբանութիւնը, ինչպէս նաեւ պատմական դառը փորձը մեզ պէտք է անդադար յիշեցնեն, որ Ռուսաստան-Թուրքիա առճակատումից կամ բարեկամութիւնից Հայաստանը չի կարող շահած դուրս գալ:

      Ռուս-թուրքական այս միջադէպը, անկախ հրապարակային կոշտ յայտարարութիւններից, առաջիկայում յաղթահարուելու է, սակայն այն իր նստուածքն է թողնելու Մոսկուա-Անգարա յարաբերութիւններում:

      Ինչպէս Փութինի, այնպէս էլ Էրտողանի համար այս միջադէպը նաեւ անձնական` «ես»-ի խնդիր է: Այս միջադէպը նաեւ երկու առաջնորդների` ռուսական ցարի ու թուրքական սուլթանի անձնական պայքար է, հետեւաբար դա նոյնպէս իր նստուածքն է թողնելու երկկողմ յարաբերութիւնների վրայ:

      Եթէ անգամ ռուսական խորհրդարանը` Պետական Տուման քրէականացնի Հայոց ցեղասպանութեան ժխտումը, ապա դա անելու է ոչ թէ յանուն պատմական արդարութեան, այլ` ընդդէմ թուրքերի: Հայոց ցեղասպանութեան 100-ամեակը, այդ օրերին Փութինի այցը Երեւան շատ աւելի յարմար առիթ էր եւ լաւ կ՛ընկալուէր, եթէ զուգահեռաբար քրէականացման նախաձեռնութիւնը մտնէր Տումայի օրակարգ:

      Ռուս-թուրքական այս թնճուկը կարող է իր բացասական ազդեցութիւնը թողնել Հայաստան-Թուրքիա յարաբերութիւնների վրայ: Եթէ նախկինում, ինչպէս արձանագրութիւնների ստորագրման շրջանում, Մոսկուան չէր խոչընդոտում հայ-թուրքական մերձեցմանը, ապա նոյն դիրքորոշումը պէտք չէ ակնկալել նաեւ այսօր:

      Ռուսաստան-Թուրքիա ճգնաժամի ընթացքում Հայաստանը պէտք է առաջին հերթին մտածի ոչ թէ այն մասին, թէ ի՛նչ կը շահի երկու տէրութիւնների բախումից, այլ թէ ի՛նչ քայլեր պէտք է անի կամ չանի, որպէսզի վնասներ չունենայ:

      Հայկական կողմը հրապարակային յայտարարութիւններում պէտք է չափազանց զգուշ եւ նրբանկատ լինի: Ռուսաստանը, հաւանաբար, կ՛ակնկալէր Երեւանի արձագանգը: Պաշտպանութեան նախարարի յայտարարութիւնը բաւարար է:

      Պէտք չէ ոգեւորուել ռուս քաղաքական գործիչների` Հայաստանի եւ հայութեան հասցէին արուող հրապարակային հաճոյախօսութիւններից
      : Դրանք արւում են ռուս-թուրքական հակասութիւնների խորապատկերին եւ աւելի շատ նպատակ են հետապնդում նեարդայնացնել թուրքերին: Հէնց այս պարունակում պէտք է դիտարկել նաեւ ռուս օրէնսդիրների` Հայոց ցեղասպանութեան ժխտումը քրէականացնելու նախաձեռնութիւնը:

      Հետեւաբար, Հայաստանը պէտք չէ թիրաժաւորի ռուս քաղաքական գործիչների եւ պատգամաւորների` թուացեալ հայանպաստ յայտարարութիւնները: Դա կարող է առաւել գրգռել թուրքերին հայերի դէմ եւ աւելի խորը փակուղի տանել Հայաստան-Թուրքիա փակուղին:

      Հաշուի առնելով, որ Եգիպտոսից յետոյ Ռուսաստանը Թուրքիան եւս համարում է ոչ անվտանգ վայր ռուս զբօսաշրջիկների համար, Հայաստանը պէտք է օգտուի այս իրավիճակից եւ փորձի ռուս զբօսաշրջիկների որոշակի հատուածի համար դառնալ այլընտրանքային զբօսավայր:

      Comment


      • Re: Regional geopolitics

        TURKEY PICKS A SIDE

        EurActiv, EU
        Nov 26 2015

        Turkey's careful balance with Russia and differences with the West over
        working with Islamist forces have long been a source of frustration
        for other members of NATO, writes Stratfor.

        Stratfor is an American publisher and global intelligence company
        founded in 1996 in Austin, Texas, by George Friedman.

        Russian President Vladimir Putin said the downing of a Russian
        Su-24 by Turkish F-16s on Tuesday was "a stab in the back delivered
        by accomplices of the terrorists." In another oblique reference to
        Turkey, Putin said the Islamic State is "protected by the military of
        an entire nation." He expressed concern and disbelief that Turkey did
        not try to contact Russia following the incident and instead rushed
        to convene a NATO meeting when Russia has "always treated Turkey as
        not only a close neighbor, but also a friendly nation."

        Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Putin have been well
        aware that competition between their countries has been growing on
        multiple fronts. And until Tuesday, both took great care to avoid
        having that competition devolve into outright confrontation. A number
        of factors will drive Moscow and Ankara to try to temper the latest
        bout of hostilities, but neither leader will be able to avoid the
        uncomfortable reality that geopolitical forces are once again pulling
        these old rivals further apart.

        Turkey and Russia cannot help but step on each other's toes. Turkey
        is the gatekeeper to the Mediterranean from the Black Sea through its
        control of the Dardanelles and the Bosporus. That means if Russia wants
        to send container ships, oil cargoes and warships westward, they pass
        through Turkey. If NATO wants to threaten the Russian underbelly from
        the Black Sea, Turkey has to give the green light. This is a point
        not lost on Putin's Russia.

        As two Eurasian powers with long imperial pasts, Russia and Turkey
        have overlapping spheres of influence in parts of the Balkans, the
        Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East. This dynamic brought
        both empires to war multiple times over nearly five centuries. Not
        surprisingly, Turkey was profoundly uncomfortable when Russia invaded
        Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014 to reinforce its position in the
        former Soviet space. Though Turkey saw an imperative to keep Russian
        ambitions in check, it preferred letting the United States, Poland,
        Romania and others take the lead. After all, Russia supplies 55% of
        Turkey's natural gas needs, and Ankara was not interested in risking
        disruptions to that supply or to the broader Turkish-Russian trade
        relationship that could further strain the Turkish economy.

        But Russia has been getting too close for Turkey's comfort more
        recently. In the Caucasus, several factors are challenging the
        status quo in Nagorno-Karabakh, a conflict zone that could eventually
        draw Russian and Turkish intervention. In the Middle East, Russia's
        military intervention in Syria on the side of the Alawite government
        squarely challenges Turkey's ambitions to bring Sunni power back to
        Syria through the toppling of President Bashar al Assad. Turkey's
        downing of the Russian fighter jet shows that Ankara is now willing
        to act on its frustration with Russia and bear the consequences.

        The most immediate consequence will be felt in Syria. The preliminary
        steps toward a power-sharing deal are effectively stalled for
        now. The videos of Turkmen rebels shooting Russian pilots and
        attacking search and rescue missions will only reinforce Russia's
        claims that the rebels Turkey, the United States and others have been
        sponsoring cannot be trusted and therefore do not deserve a place at
        the negotiating table. There were already major doubts about whether
        the rebel sponsors could be talked into negotiating with the Syrian
        government at this stage of the fight anyway.

        The battlefield, however, will remain just as intense. Turkey is
        serious about moving ahead with a plan to create a safe zone in
        northern Syria along the Turkish border to root out the Islamic State,
        keep a check on the Kurds and reinforce its rebel proxies against the
        al Assad government. The United States also remains committed to the
        fight against the Islamic State and is willing to facilitate Turkish
        operations in northern Syria toward that end. Russia is unlikely to
        back down from its operations in Syria targeting both Islamic State
        and rebel forces. In fact, Russia will be reinforcing its bombers with
        accompanying fighter jets to deter another shoot-down. The potential
        for further skirmishes on the Syrian battlefield cannot be ruled out.

        The less visible, but no less significant, consequence concerns
        Turkey's relationship with NATO. Turkey's careful balance with Russia
        and differences with the West over working with Islamist forces have
        long been a source of frustration for other members of NATO, especially
        given the significant role Turkey could play in counterbalancing
        Russia and in responding to threats such as the Islamic State. As the
        Islamic State threat escalated and as Russia became more involved in
        Syria, Turkey started drifting closer toward its NATO allies. Turkey's
        recent decision to officially cancel a controversial deal to purchase
        a multibillion-dollar air defense system from China gave hope to NATO
        members that Turkey was prepared to remove some of the ambiguity from
        its role in the security alliance. And with Turkey's competition with
        Russia now on full display following the downing of the Russian Su-24,
        the United States and a number of Central and Eastern European powers
        will see an opportunity to draw Turkey deeper into NATO.

        Russian officials and media have proposed retaliatory measures against
        Turkey, such as energy cutoffs, trade restrictions and undefined
        military responses. Russia certainly has the means to squeeze Turkey
        economically, though cutting off natural gas would also undermine
        Gazprom's commercial reputation at a time when Russia is fighting
        to retain market share in the West. Russian military interference
        against Turkish operations on the Syrian battlefield is also possible,
        though such actions are very risky for Russia itself. So long as Russia
        remains in a standoff with the United States and the West at large -
        a situation that will not abate anytime soon - Russia will need to
        play it carefully with Turkey. Only now, it is dealing with a Turkey
        that is sitting a lot more comfortably with its NATO partners than
        it was just a couple of months ago.

        by Stratfor



        ========
        ***NB: Stratfor= part of the vocal analytical proturkish lobby in WDC
        Last edited by Vrej1915; 11-29-2015, 10:13 PM.

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        • Re: Regional geopolitics

          Россия начала военную поддержку сирийских курдов
          За российско-турецким обменом дипломатическими уколами и напряженностью последних дней от внимания журналистов и экспертов ускользнул факт нового поворота в сирийском ...


          За российско-турецким обменом дипломатическими уколами и напряженностью последних дней от внимания журналистов и экспертов ускользнул факт нового поворота в сирийском конфликте. Спустя два дня после сбития турками российского самолета, Россия, впервые с начала своей воздушной операции в Сирии, начала прямое взаимодействие с Верховным комитетом сирийских курдов, осуществляющим функции временного правительства в курдском регионе Роджава в условиях вооруженного конфликта в Сирии.

          Вот уже два дня российская авиация наносит воздушные удары по населенному пункту Азаз на сирийско-турецкой границе, контролируемому так называемой умеренной оппозицией в лице Свободной сирийской армии (FSA). Кроме того, уже трижды российские самолеты бомбили контрольно-пропускной пункт Баб аль-Салам, через который из Турции идет снабжение антиправительственных мятежников. И, наконец, российская авиация нанесла серию авиационных ударов по позициям исламистов в Дейр Джемале, где в настоящее время проходит линия фронта между сирийскими курдами и протурецкими мятежниками.

          Одновременно с российскими авиаударами бойцы курдских Отрядов народной самообороны (YPG), непосредственно подчиняющиеся вышеупомянутому Курдскому верховному комитету, начали массированное наступление на позиции протурецких мятежников из Свободной сирийской армии в населенных пунктах Марьямайн, Маликия и Зивара на севере провинции Алеппо при поддержке с воздуха российской авиации. Кроме того, курды ведут наступление на вертолетную базу «Менг», находящуюся под контролем FSA. Координация действий между курдскими силами и российской авиацией уже не вызывает сомнений.

          В июне нынешнего года YPG отбили у джихадистов «Исламского государства Ирака и аль-Шама» (ISIS) ключевой приграничный с Турцией город Тель-Абьяд, населенный преимущественно арабами и туркоманами. Сейчас, помимо Азаза, контролируемого протурецкими мятежниками, YPG пытается овладеть и городом Джераблус, в котором пока хозяйничают джихадисты ISIS.

          Напомню, что Курдский военный совет составляют члены курдской партии «Демократический союз» и Курдского национального совета. При этом, в отличие от других курдских националистических организаций, «Демократический союз» выступает не за отделение региона Роджава от Сирии, а за демократическую автономию в составе единого сирийского государства. «Демократический союз» обеспечивает деятельность курдских автономных управленческих структур в Роджаве и дистанцируется от курдских националистов из других партий, стремящихся к полному отделению региона от Сирии.

          Любопытно, что контакты российских дипломатов с сирийскими курдами начались далеко не вчера. Еще 6 июня с. г. делегация Курдского верховного комитета во главе с лидером партии «Демократический союз» Салихом Муслимом посетила Россию с целью установления дипломатических отношений, и лидер партии по итогам поездки заявил об ее успехе. 11 октября в Париже состоялась встреча С. Муслима с заместителем министра иностранных дел России Михаилом Богдановым. А 21 октября Москву посетила делегация партии во главе с Асей Орман, которая имела встречу с тем же М. Богдановым. По итогам встречи было заявлено об открытии представительства партии в российской столице. А 23 октября президент России Владимир Путин призвал сирийских курдов к совместным с правительством Башара аль-Асада действиям в борьбе против Исламского государства.

          И, как мы теперь видим, не только против него.

          ПАНДУХТ

          На фото последствия авиаударов по КПП Баб аль-Салам

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          • Re: Regional geopolitics

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            • Re: Regional geopolitics

              SYRIAN ARMY TAKES KEY AREAS NEAR TURKISH BORDER, SURROUNDS LATAKIA

              14:25, 30 Nov 2015
              Siranush Ghazanchyan

              Photo: AP Photo/ Alexander Kots

              According to an army spokesperson, Syrian army has taken control of key
              areas in northern Syria, and is near to completing the encirclement
              of a key town in the Latakia province, near Turkish border, Sputnik
              News reports.

              The Syrian army has taken control of key areas in northern Syria, and
              is near to completing the encirclement of a key town in the Latakia
              province still under the control of the Islamic State jihadist group,
              an army spokesperson said Monday.

              "We have cleared the 1122 height and virtually completed surrounding
              the Salma town," the spokesperson told journalists.

              The spokesperson added that some 2,000 out of an original estimate
              of 10,000 militants remained in the region, as others had retreated
              or been killed.

              Syria has been in a state of civil war since 2011, with the country's
              government fighting opposition forces and radical Islamist militant
              groups, including the Nusra Front and the Islamic State.

              The military conflict has claimed the lives of over 220,000 Syrians
              and displaced over 12 million, according to UN estimates.

              According to an army spokesperson, Syrian army has taken control of key areas in northern Syria, and is near to completing the encirclement of a key town in the Latakia province, near Turkish border.


              Hayastan or Bust.

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              • Re: Regional geopolitics

                Russia names Soros Foundation undesirable foreign organization

                Russia names Soros Foundation undesirable foreign organization
                November 30, 2015 - 16:42 AMT

                PanARMENIAN.Net - The Russian Prosecutor General’s Office has recognized George Soros’s Open Society Institute and another affiliated organization as undesirable groups, forbidding Russian citizens and organizations to participate in any of their projects, RT reports.

                In a statement released on Monday, November 30, prosecutors said the activities of the Open Society Institute and the Open Society Institute Assistance Foundation were a threat to the foundations of Russia’s Constitutional order and national security. They added that the Justice Ministry would be duly informed about these conclusions and would add the two groups to Russia’s list of undesirable foreign organizations.

                Prosecutors launched a probe into the activities of the two organizations - both sponsored by the well-known US financier George Soros - in July this year, after Russian senators approved the so-called “patriotic stop-list” of 12 groups that required immediate attention over their supposed anti-Russian activities. Other groups on the list included the National Endowment for Democracy; the International Republican Institute; the National Democratic Institute; the MacArthur Foundation and Freedom House.

                In late July, the Russian Justice Ministry recognized the U.S. National Endowment for Democracy as an undesirable group after prosecutors discovered the US NGO had spent millions on attempts to question the legitimacy of Russian elections and tarnish the prestige of national military service.

                The Law on Undesirable Foreign Organizations came into force in early June this year. It requires the Prosecutor General’s Office and the Foreign Ministry to draw up an official list of undesirable foreign organizations and outlaw their activities. Once a group is recognized as undesirable, its assets in Russia must be frozen, its offices closed and the distribution of any of its materials must be banned.

                If the ban is violated, the personnel of the outlawed group and any Russian citizens who cooperate with them could face heavy fines, or even prison terms in the case of repeated or aggravated offences
                Hayastan or Bust.

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                • Re: Regional geopolitics

                  Russia-Turkey Diplomatic Row Continues Over Downed Russian Plane




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                  --------------------------------------------------------------------------------






















                  November 30, 2015




                  T
                  he diplomatic dispute continued on November 30 between Russia and Turkey over the downing of a Russian warplane by a Turkish fighter jet, with both sides entrenched in their positions.

                  A Kremlin spokesman said Russian President Vladimir Putin would not meet with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the Paris climate summit on November 30 because Turkey refuses to apologize.

                  In Brussels, Turkey’s Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said no country can demand an apology for exercising its right and duty to defend its own airspace.

                  Ankara insists the Russian plane flew into Turkish airspace on November 24 and ignored repeated warnings before it was shot down.

                  Davutoglu said Ankara wants Russia to reconsider economic sanctions imposed on November 28 by Putin.

                  Moscow announced its sanctions include a ban on most imports of agricultural products from Turkey.

                  Meanwhile, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Turkey’s NATO allies are concerned about an increased Russian military presence in the region.

                  Stoltenberg said NATO’s focus is on calming the situation.

                  Russian media report that Putin and U.S. President Barack Obama were meeting privately on the sidelines of the summit early in the afternoon on November 30.

                  Based on reporting by Reuters, AP, AFP, TASS, Interfax, and dpa
                  Hayastan or Bust.

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                  • Re: Regional geopolitics

                    TURKEY ARRESTS GENERALS FOR STOPPING SYRIA-BOUND TRUCKS 'FILLED WITH ARMS'

                    15:43, 30 Nov 2015
                    Siranush Ghazanchyan

                    Two Turkish generals and a colonel were detained on Saturday for
                    intercepting Syria-bound trucks that belonged to Turkey's National
                    Intelligence Organization (MIT), the newspaper Today's Zaman reported.

                    In January 2014, Ankara Gendarmerie Major-General Ibrahim Aydin,
                    former Adana Gendarmerie Brigadier-General Hamza Celepoglu and former
                    Gendarmerie Criminal Laboratory Head Colonel Burhanettin Cihangiroglu
                    stopped Syrian-bound trucks in southern Turkey after they received
                    information from an anonymous source that the trucks were illegally
                    carrying weapons to militants in Syria.

                    When the information about the trucks became public, MIT officials and
                    high-ranking Turkish politicians, including President Recep Teyyip
                    Erdogan, who was Prime Minister back then, and Prime Minister Ahmet
                    Davutoglu, then the country's foreign minister, were furious that
                    the gendarmes stopped the trucks and said the Syria-bound trucks were
                    carrying "humanitarian aid" to Turkmen living just south of Turkey,
                    the newspaper said.

                    "Yes, I'm saying this without any hesitation. That aid was going to
                    the Turkmens. There will be a war next door and we will watch our
                    Turkmen, Arab and Turkish brothers being massacred," Davutoglu said,
                    as cited by Today's Zaman.

                    However, members of opposition parties and some Turkish media said the
                    trucks were indeed transporting weapons to Islamic extremists in Syria.

                    Two Turkish generals and a colonel were detained on Saturday for intercepting Syria-bound trucks that belonged to Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT), the newspaper Today’s Zaman reported.


                    Hayastan or Bust.

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                    • Re: Regional geopolitics

                      Turkish Gambit: Strained relations between Moscow, Ankara to impact regional affairs

                      Armenia may be involved in an emerging Russian-Turkish standoff in the region in the wake of the November 24 incident in which Turkish air forces shot down a Russian warplane engaged in an anti-terrorist operation in Syria. But most analysts do not expect a full-blown conflict between Russia and NATO member Turkey.

                      The shooting down of the plane sparked a new wave of anti-Turkish rhetoric in Russia as relations between Moscow and Ankara dramatically worsened on Tuesday. Experts believe that the South Caucasus will feel the consequences of this spat.

                      Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a tough statement, saying that the incident will have a serious impact on Russo-Turkish relations. However, his spokesman Dmitry Peskov later clarified that the matter did not concern a Russian military response. Nevertheless, the most discussed topic today is whether the incident with the plane could trigger a war between Turkey and Russia.

                      Analysts note that the two states do not have land borders and the border only on the Black Sea. The “border” between Turkey and Russia lies on the Armenian-Turkish frontier, which is often called the “external border of the CIS” and is protected by Russian border guards.

                      Armenia hosts Russia’s 102nd military base, which has an air component. Russia and Armenia also intend to create a unified air defense system.

                      History knows as many as 18 Russo-Turkish wars and each, as a rule, ended in the division of land. Much of that land historically belonged to Armenians and was populated by Armenians. Now much of the historically Armenian land continues to be divided by the Turkish-Russian agreements of 1921 – called the Moscow and Kars treaties.

                      Many Russian experts believe that by shooting down the Russian plane, Turkey tried to provoke Moscow’s “spontaneous” action. However, Turkey is a NATO member and actions against Turkey are equivalent to aggression against NATO, something which Russia knows well.

                      Most likely, Moscow will limit its actions to cancellation of tourist travels to Turkey (especially that it is not the best season for holidaymaking now), ceasing of its military cooperation with Turkey and anti-Turkish propaganda for internal use. Because in Moscow they understand that a conflict with Turkey does not only mean a conflict with NATO, but also the denunciation of earlier treaties, and thus destabilization of the entire region of the South Caucasus and southern Russia.

                      At the same time, analysts do not rule out the possibility that Turkey will go further and will try to achieve at the international level military sanctions against Russia, and, in particular, will seek the withdrawal of its forces from Syria. The fact that U.S. President Barack Obama has recognized Turkey’s right to defend itself could mean that Washington will support Ankara if it submit an application to the United Nations.

                      Analysts also note that the Turks shot down the Russian plane on the same day when finally the government bodies were formed in Turkey after the November general elections. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan regained his foothold in domestic politics and decided to go for broke, Russian experts say. They expect new aggressive steps from Turkey against Russia.
                      I'm including the source below so you can make your own conclusion if this is propaganda or not.

                      By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
                      ArmeniaNow correspondent

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