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Military Forces of the Republic of Armenia

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  • Re: Military Forces of the Republic of Armenia

    Originally posted by Vrej1915 View Post
    Another Regional War in the Wings
    Share on email Share on twitter Share on facebook Share on digg | More Sharing ServicesMore

    E. Wayne Merry | January 31, 2013
    The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh could resume.



    In the conflict zone stretching from Syria to Afghanistan lies another war waiting to re-emerge: Nagorno-Karabakh. This dispute is likely to occupy President Obama’s new foreign-policy team whether they want it or not.

    Two decades ago the newly independent states of Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a bitter war over this remote area of mountains and valleys. Armenia won the war, but nobody has achieved peace. A fragile ceasefire signed in 1994 remains the only tangible achievement of diplomacy.

    Since then, a mediation effort led by Washington, Moscow and Paris has sought a solution. Despite the best efforts of the three governments—including presidential initiatives by all three—the parties to the conflict do not and will not negotiate. This impasse has contributed to a dangerous evolution of the dispute in recent years from post-war to pre-war.

    A major arms race is underway, fueled by Azerbaijan’s oil and gas wealth and by Armenia’s support from Russia. Azerbaijan is acquiring a distinct advantage in military technology and firepower, but Armenia retains major advantages of terrain and operational skill. Azerbaijan has a patron in Turkey, which feels a fraternal commitment, but Armenia has a treaty-based security alliance and historical partnership with Russia.

    A new war would likely be pyrrhic for both sides, but also dwarf the first war in scale and destruction. The initial conflict was limited to Karabakh and its surroundings, and was largely an infantry fight. The next war will engage Armenia and Azerbaijan against each other directly, with greatly expanded arsenals. Both sides plan on this basis and both threaten to target civilian infrastructure, such as pipelines. Serious ceasefire violations have recently occurred on their joint border, not just around Karabakh.

    The international mediation effort, though complex, envisions a final settlement involving an exchange of land for peace. In earlier years, diplomats and politicians in Baku and Yerevan privately acknowledged that a settlement would involve Armenian withdrawal from lowland territories to the east and south of Karabakh, as well as Azerbaijani acceptance of an Armenian identity for Karabakh and a link with Armenia to the west. Today, the land-for-peace concept is essentially dead on both sides. Armenia demands “comprehensive security” in the captured lands around Karabakh, while Azerbaijan believes its new weaponry and support from Turkey can restore its full Soviet-era territorial control.

    Political rhetoric on both sides dehumanizes the other. Each side exploits its refugees and wallows in a cult of victimization. Each side outrages the other: last year Baku lionized an officer who committed a vicious axe murder of an Armenian in Hungary; Yerevan publishes maps of “Armenia” which include large swaths of inherently Azerbaijani territory. Each believes war will bring military triumph and historical fulfillment. Both cannot be correct in their expectations, but both certainly can be wrong.

    The broader danger lies in the patron-client relationships of the regional great powers, Russia with Armenia and Turkey with Azerbaijan. Ankara and Moscow would not actually come to blows in a new Karabakh war, but both can be dragged into dangerous circumstances by their clients. The Azerbaijani tail has already wagged the Turkish dog to prevent normalizing relations between Ankara and Yerevan. (For the time being, Iran plays a marginal political role, but provides vital energy and trade links to Armenia. However, Tehran’s relations with Baku are poisonous and, in a new Karabakh war, Iran might seek to settle accounts.)

    The parties to the conflict have demonstrated that a peaceful resolution does not lie with them unaided. However, the international mediators have been consistently abused, as Baku and Yerevan hide behind them to avoid genuine negotiations. While mediation may have been appropriate for the post-war environment of the 1990s, the present pre-war atmosphere calls for a more direct and forceful approach.

    The missing element in the diplomatic equation is Turkey, which needs to play a political role comparable to Russia. Only Moscow and Ankara working together can restrain their clients from renewed war and compel them to real negotiations. This kind of traditional great power collusion may be out of fashion, but it can work and is far preferable to another war. Ankara and Moscow have differing priorities on Karabakh, but they share broadly similar views on Black Sea, Caucasian and Caspian issues. They both want to avoid a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan while not allowing their clients to compromise their own wider interests.

    Unfortunately, Turkey today is so bogged down on its southern frontier that it pays inadequate attention to the looming danger to the east. The failure of its previous effort to normalize relations with Armenia has made Ankara both overly cautious and prone to excessive influence from Baku. However, Karabakh is an opportunity for active Turkish diplomacy both to contribute to a regional settlement and to regularize ties with Yerevan.

    American diplomats have tried to be evenhanded toward Armenia and Azerbaijan, but U.S. influence on this conflict is, candidly, inadequate. Thus, Washington should encourage a more active Turkish role and welcome collaboration by Russia and Turkey as Caucasian peacemakers.

    E. Wayne Merry is Senior Fellow for Europe and Eurasia at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC.
    1st --- Vrej , thank you for making this available in English , so that this poor Armenian who has lost his own language can read it .
    2nd --- man alive can our president give a speech ! The politicle skill shown was in my opinion , exceptional .
    3rd --- all though this Wayne Merry guy made some ( some ) valid points , many of his points were total crap , CRAP ( poop ) .
    My opinion is --- the heshe is a politicle b*tch for the west and has his lips firmly attached to the little tinny turkish wee wee .
    Artashes

    Comment


    • Re: Military Forces of the Republic of Armenia

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...v=hByIlMu-c1Y#!

      Interview with Gl. Artur Aghapegyan ex-Commander of Hadrut front in NKA,
      Ex Vice Minister of Defense of RA,
      Now Vice PM of NKR

      Comment


      • Re: Military Forces of the Republic of Armenia

        Originally posted by Artashes View Post
        1st --- Vrej , thank you for making this available in English , so that this poor Armenian who has lost his own language can read it .
        2nd --- man alive can our president give a speech ! The politicle skill shown was in my opinion , exceptional .
        3rd --- all though this Wayne Merry guy made some ( some ) valid points , many of his points were total crap , CRAP ( poop ) .
        My opinion is --- the heshe is a politicle b*tch for the west and has his lips firmly attached to the little tinny turkish wee wee .
        Artashes
        You're welcome

        Comment


        • Re: Military Forces of the Republic of Armenia

          I cant hear any of this - the volume is way too low. What did he say?
          Originally posted by Vrej1915 View Post
          http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...v=hByIlMu-c1Y#!

          Interview with Gl. Artur Aghapegyan ex-Commander of Hadrut front in NKA,
          Ex Vice Minister of Defense of RA,
          Now Vice PM of NKR
          Hayastan or Bust.

          Comment


          • Re: Military Forces of the Republic of Armenia

            Originally posted by Haykakan View Post
            I cant hear any of this - the volume is way too low. What did he say?
            He talks about necessity of integrating well trained army cadres, into state and civil structures after they quit the army (western style)
            Necessity to impose military service for civil servants...
            The difficulties of passage from partisan/fedayi cadres to professional officers, integration of ex red army officers into our army...
            The need to review our psychological borders, when talking of "best army in the region"..., that Azarbaijan is not the only one to be compared with, even if it is our immediate enemy ...
            etc...
            etc...
            Last edited by Vrej1915; 02-03-2013, 10:38 AM.

            Comment


            • Re: Military Forces of the Republic of Armenia

              Sounds like forming the USA equivalent of the national gaurd.
              Hayastan or Bust.

              Comment


              • Re: Military Forces of the Republic of Armenia

                Originally posted by Haykakan View Post
                Sounds like forming the USA equivalent of the national gaurd.
                No idea how the national guard functions.
                Anyway, all he says are practical and logical for a state like ours.

                Comment


                • Re: Military Forces of the Republic of Armenia

                  Արոտավայրերը իրանցիներին տալիս ոչ ոք ժողովրդի կարծիքը հաշվի չի առել.
                  Այդ հատվածը բավական մոտ է գտնվում Հայաստան-Նախիջևան սահմանին և ռազմավարական տեսանկյունից կարևոր նշանակություն ունի Հայաստանի համար:...

                  2 փետրվարի, 2013
                  Ակտիվիստ Վազգեն Գալստյանը դժգոհում է, որ իրանցիների հետ համաձայնագիր կնքելիս տեղացի ժողովրդի կարծիքը ոչ ոք հաշվի չի առել, հանրային լսումներ չեն եղել:

                  «Ինքս Վայոց ձորից եմ, բայց զինվորական ծառայությունս որպես կապավոր անցկացրած լինելով Սյունիքի մարզի հենց այն հատվածներում, որոնք որպես արոտավայր տրամադրելու են Իրանի հյուսիսային շրջանի` Ատրպատականի թրքական ծագմամբ իրանցիներին, կարող եմ հավաստել, որ դրանով լուրջ մտահոգությունների առիթ է ստեղծվում մեր երկրի համար: Այդ հատվածը բավական մոտ է գտնվում Հայաստան-Նախիջևան սահմանին և ռազմավարական տեսանկյունից կարևոր նշանակություն ունի Հայաստանի համար: Բազային որոշակի գիտելիքներ ունեցող անասնապահը կարող է ինֆորմացիա փոխանցել համապատասխան մարմիններին»:

                  Վազգենը, ով ներկայացնում է «Ջերմուկի զարգացման կենտրոն» ՀԿ-ն, նշեց, որ «Թռչկան» քաղաքացիական նախաձեռնությունն այս հարցով դիմել է ԱԱԾ տնօրեն Գորիկ Հակոբյանին և ՀՀ ազգային անվտանգության խորհրդի քարտուղար Արթուր Բաղդասարյանին, բայց պատասխան չեն ստացել:

                  Comment


                  • Re: Military Forces of the Republic of Armenia

                    Ստեփանակերտի օդանավակայանի շահագործումը ժամանակի հարց է. ռազմական հոգեբան
                    Նարեկ Ալեքսանյան

                    14:40, 4 փետրվարի, 2013
                    «Կայուն պարբերականությամբ հայկական ինքնաթիռը ադրբեջանական ռադարների վրա երևալու է 1-2 րոպե` վայրէջք կատարելու համար Իվանյան թաղամասից Ասկերանի ուղղությամբ օդանավակայանը շրջանցելիս: Սակայն տեխնիկապես շատ բարդ է այդ 1-2 րոպեն ֆիքսել, հետո խփել ինքնաթիռը, մանավանդ որ ցանկացած զենք ունի իր հակընդդեմ տարբերակը, և մեր հակաօդային պաշտպանությունը պատրաստ է ցանկացած պահի նմանօրինակ վտանգը չեզոքացնել»,- այսպիսի հայտարարությամբ հանդես եկավ ռազմական հոգեբան Դավիթ Ջամալյանը` ի պատասխան Ադրբեջանում ծայր առած քաղաքացիական հուզումներին. հարևան երկրում ցավագին են ընդունում այն փաստը, որ Արցախ-Հայաստան օդային կապն ապահովվելու է Ստեփանակերտ-Երևան-Ստեփանակերտ չվերթներով:

                    Ռազմական հոգեբանը նշեց նաև որ Ադրբեջանի բանակը եթե տեխնիկապես հնարավորություն ունենար կյանքի կոչել իրենց պետության ղեկավարների հնչեցրած հայտարարությունները Ստեփանակերտի օդանավակայանից դուրս եկած առաջին իսկ ինքնաթիռի ոչնչացման մասին, ապա ոչինչ չէր խանգարի նրանց դա անել: Նրանք չէին վախենա քաղաքական հետևանքներից և միջազգային հանրության քննադատություններից: Ըստ Դավիթ Ջամալյանին` Ադրբեջանը այդ քայլին չի գնա, որովհետև վախենում է միայն մի բանից` մեր ադեկվատ հակահարվածից, և այդ պատասխանը պարտադիր չէ, որ արտահայտվի Նախիջևանից Ադրբեջան գնացող ինքնաթիռները ռմբահարելու տեսքով:

                    «Վստահ եմ, որ օդանավակայանը վերանորոգվելու ժամանակ մեր ռազմաքաղաքական ղեկավարությունը հաշվի է առել ադրբեջանցիների արձագանքը, և բնական է, որ անխուսափելիորեն օդանավակայանը կաշխատի. սկզբունքորեն տարբերություն չկա, թե դա մեկ ամիս շուտ կլինի, թե ուշ: Ստեփանակերտի օդանավակայանը Արցախի Հանրապետության համար նաև աշխարհին ներկայանալու ևս մի միջոց է,- նշեց ռազմական հոգեբանն ու հավելեց,- ինձ հետաքրքիր է, թե ինչպես է ադրբեջանական կողմն իր դեմքը պահելու սեփական ժողովրդի մոտ, երբ Ստեփանակերտի օդանավակայանից առաջին ինքնաթիռն Արցախից Հայաստան չվերթ իրականացնի»:

                    Comment


                    • Re: Military Forces of the Republic of Armenia

                      Azerbaijan Backing Off Threats To Karabakh Flights
                      February 4, 2013 , by Joshua Kucera

                      Azerbaijan never had any intention of shooting down flights to Karabakh, the country's deputy foreign minister has said, in what appears to be an effort to back away from previous statements threatening to do just that. From AZE.az:

                      [Deputy Foreign Minister Araz] Azimov said that Azerbaijan was not ready to shoot down civilian airplanes, as Armenians and their supporters are constantly crying.

                      "In accordance with the Chicago convention, specific rules exist which are recognized by the Azerbaijani side, which provide for the prevention of illegal flights and forcing them to land in specific airports. So it is not true, when someone earlier tried to speculate that 'Azerbaijan will shoot down civilian flights," Azimov reported.

                      "The Armenian side, speculating on these questions, attempts to put pressure on Azerbaijan by conducting these flights to the Khojaly airport. Recall that these territories are occupied and opening an illegal air corridor means an occupation of airspace," he said.

                      A number of Azerbaijani officials have threatened to shoot down flights landing in Karabakh, from the military to the civil aviation authority to the cabinet of ministers. While they may not have specified that they would shoot down civilian flights, given that the primary purpose of the Karabakh airport is for civilian use, the message Azerbaijan was attempting to send was clear.

                      Anyway, it appears that Azerbaijan either has changed its mind about the usefulness of shooting down civilian flights or, as is more likely, never intended to do so but thought there may be something to gain by making such threats. So it's basically the same thing that happened two years ago.

                      The whole episode (assuming this is in fact the end of it) looks like a net negative for Azerbaijan, though, as it's taken attention away from the fact that most of the international community, including the OSCE and the U.S., have opposed the opening of the airport. Now, if the airport does in fact open, the story will be Azerbaijan's threat to shoot down planes rather than the Armenians' unproductive actions. Seems like an own goal for Azerbaijani diplomacy.

                      Comment

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