Announcement

Collapse

Forum Rules (Everyone Must Read!!!)

1] What you CAN NOT post.

You agree, through your use of this service, that you will not use this forum to post any material which is:
- abusive
- vulgar
- hateful
- harassing
- personal attacks
- obscene

You also may not:
- post images that are too large (max is 500*500px)
- post any copyrighted material unless the copyright is owned by you or cited properly.
- post in UPPER CASE, which is considered yelling
- post messages which insult the Armenians, Armenian culture, traditions, etc
- post racist or other intentionally insensitive material that insults or attacks another culture (including Turks)

The Ankap thread is excluded from the strict rules because that place is more relaxed and you can vent and engage in light insults and humor. Notice it's not a blank ticket, but just a place to vent. If you go into the Ankap thread, you enter at your own risk of being clowned on.
What you PROBABLY SHOULD NOT post...
Do not post information that you will regret putting out in public. This site comes up on Google, is cached, and all of that, so be aware of that as you post. Do not ask the staff to go through and delete things that you regret making available on the web for all to see because we will not do it. Think before you post!


2] Use descriptive subject lines & research your post. This means use the SEARCH.

This reduces the chances of double-posting and it also makes it easier for people to see what they do/don't want to read. Using the search function will identify existing threads on the topic so we do not have multiple threads on the same topic.

3] Keep the focus.

Each forum has a focus on a certain topic. Questions outside the scope of a certain forum will either be moved to the appropriate forum, closed, or simply be deleted. Please post your topic in the most appropriate forum. Users that keep doing this will be warned, then banned.

4] Behave as you would in a public location.

This forum is no different than a public place. Behave yourself and act like a decent human being (i.e. be respectful). If you're unable to do so, you're not welcome here and will be made to leave.

5] Respect the authority of moderators/admins.

Public discussions of moderator/admin actions are not allowed on the forum. It is also prohibited to protest moderator actions in titles, avatars, and signatures. If you don't like something that a moderator did, PM or email the moderator and try your best to resolve the problem or difference in private.

6] Promotion of sites or products is not permitted.

Advertisements are not allowed in this venue. No blatant advertising or solicitations of or for business is prohibited.
This includes, but not limited to, personal resumes and links to products or
services with which the poster is affiliated, whether or not a fee is charged
for the product or service. Spamming, in which a user posts the same message repeatedly, is also prohibited.

7] We retain the right to remove any posts and/or Members for any reason, without prior notice.


- PLEASE READ -

Members are welcome to read posts and though we encourage your active participation in the forum, it is not required. If you do participate by posting, however, we expect that on the whole you contribute something to the forum. This means that the bulk of your posts should not be in "fun" threads (e.g. Ankap, Keep & Kill, This or That, etc.). Further, while occasionally it is appropriate to simply voice your agreement or approval, not all of your posts should be of this variety: "LOL Member213!" "I agree."
If it is evident that a member is simply posting for the sake of posting, they will be removed.


8] These Rules & Guidelines may be amended at any time. (last update September 17, 2009)

If you believe an individual is repeatedly breaking the rules, please report to admin/moderator.
See more
See less

Can Syria avoid sliding into 'catastrophic civil war'?

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Can Syria avoid sliding into 'catastrophic civil war'?

    Horrified by the Houla massacre, other atrocities and the remorseless daily violence, the outside world is desperately casting around for a way to prevent Syria from sliding inexorably towards a disastrous civil war, and to secure the launching of some kind of political process.

    But despite huge international frustration, it keeps coming back to the same thing: at least for the moment, there is no alternative to UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan's peace mission, which has made little headway despite enjoying the support of the entire world, including, at least in theory, the Syrian regime.

    Mr Annan's talks with President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on Tuesday have failed so far to produce any sign of the "bold steps" that he wants the Syrian leader to take to demonstrate that he is serious about implementing the six-point peace plan.

    By the time he found himself repeating that plea for "bold action" from Mr Assad three days later in Beirut, confessing himself "frustrated and impatient", Mr Annan had dropped reference to the need for the opposition side also to fall into line.

    His public focus was clearly on prodding the regime, as the stronger party, to take significant steps such as withdrawing troops and heavy weapons back to barracks - something that should have been implemented weeks ago as the first stage in pacifying the situation on the ground.

    That has not happened, despite written assurances from the Syrian foreign minister to Mr Annan in April that it had.

    The regime is concerned that the resulting vacuum would be filled by rebel fighters or otherwise go over to the opposition, and that it would lose control of substantial parts of the country.

    In other words, as events on the ground have indicated, it cannot afford to implement any peace plan that requires withdrawing the military, because that would be to seal its own fate.

    Which leaves Mr Annan trying against the odds to convince the regime that the opposition would respect a truce - and that countries backing rebel fighters would halt the flow of arms to them.

    Hence, after Damascus, his visits to the countries neighbouring Syria, where his talks focused in part on efforts to stop arms smuggling across the borders.

    Achieving the reality, or even credible assurances, of that happening, and being able to persuade the regime to put away its troops, tanks and artillery, seem pretty forlorn hopes, given the venomous and worsening situation on the ground.

    Russia's role

    What seems to be missing from the equation at the moment is the kind of pressure on Damascus from Russia that was crucial in persuading the regime to accept the Annan plan in the first place, and to drop impossible conditions it later placed on implementing it.

    For the time being, despite mounting international pressure on their own position in the wake of the Houla massacre, the Russians are continuing to argue against the idea that the UN Security Council should consider tougher action such as mandatory sanctions.

    Blocking off such action increases the onus on Moscow to help secure Syrian compliance with the Annan plan, which the Russians continue to insist is the only way forward.

    If Syria is indeed now bent on a downhill course towards disintegration and an ugly and protracted sectarian civil war with dire regional consequences, Russia may soon have to choose between trying to foster a peaceful and serious transition in the hope of salvaging a relationship with whatever Syria emerges from the crisis, and sticking by the current leadership whatever the cost as things fall apart around it.

    After months of bloody stalemate between an uprising that would not go away and a regime that seemed immovable, there are some signs that things may be starting to change.

    For the first time, the Sunni merchants in the souks or markets of Old Damascus - previously a staunch pillar of support for the regime - have for the past several days shut up shop and gone on strike over the Houla massacre, despite attempts by regime enforcers to make them reopen.

    That could mean that a combination of economic collapse and sectarian atrocities may have carried dissent into the heart of the capital and the core of the regime's power base.

    Alarm bells

    Some Damascus residents say that the shabiha militia has taken on a high-profile repression role in the centre of the city, dressed in the uniforms of riot police and alienating the middle-class public by brutal and intrusive behaviour.

    The regime's sense of vulnerability and readiness to lash out may have been aggravated if it is true that some of its insiders - including the President's brother-in-law Assef Shawkat - are still seriously ill after being poisoned by an opposition infiltrator at a top-level security meeting last month.

    The initial opposition claims, on 20 May, were denied and ridiculed by the authorities, but some sources have said it is true.
    Kofi Annan and President Bashar Assad in Damascus, 29 May 2012 UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan warned Syria was at a 'tipping point' after he met President Assad

    Whatever the case, the level of hostilities around the country has been creeping back towards - and sometimes beyond - where they were when the Annan truce came into effect on 12 April.

    And events such as the Houla massacre and other atrocities attributed by the opposition to the shabiha - a regime militia drawn almost entirely from the Alawite minority from which Mr Assad's ruling clan hails - have intensified the already strongly sectarian aspect of a struggle in which the uprising is by its nature based largely among the poorer sections of the majority Sunni community.

    This is why, as daily violence continues relentlessly, the alarm bells have begun to ring so loudly in chanceries around the world.

    For if Syria, with its patchwork of sects and minorities, descends into open-ended confessional strife, it could, as UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned, be plunging into "a catastrophic civil war from which the country would never recover".

    Lebanon, just next door and sharing many of the same confessional fault lines, provides a stark example.

    It erupted into sectarian strife in 1975, ushering in 15 years of conflict and opening rifts which still threaten to explode today.

    For the same thing to happen in Syria would have incalculable consequences not just for the country itself, but for the wider region. That is why world leaders are so alarmed. But they seem powerless to stop it happening.

    As Syria tries to cope with the Houla massacre and increasing levels of violence, the BBC's Jim Muir asks what can be done to avoid a descent into civil war.

  • #2
    Re: Can Syria avoid sliding into 'catastrophic civil war'?

    Yes they can. If America and Israel stop giving weapons to the terrorists aka "Syrian Free Army", they can avoid sliding into 'catastrophic civil war'.

    -Expert analysis by KanadaHye
    "Nobody can give you freedom. Nobody can give you equality or justice or anything. If you're a man, you take it." ~Malcolm X

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Can Syria avoid sliding into 'catastrophic civil war'?

      it's a shame that the BBC decided to support it's coverage of the Houla massacre with photos from another massacre in Iraq @ 2003.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Can Syria avoid sliding into 'catastrophic civil war'?

        Originally posted by KanadaHye View Post
        Yes they can. If America and Israel stop giving weapons to the terrorists aka "Syrian Free Army", they can avoid sliding into 'catastrophic civil war'.

        -Expert analysis by KanadaHye
        Also more legit than BBC ;-)

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Can Syria avoid sliding into 'catastrophic civil war'?

          The fall of the Syrian regime will be very dangerous for Armenia because the opposition in Syria is basicly Turkey. The present regime is friendly to us but the one which will replace it will not be.
          Hayastan or Bust.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Can Syria avoid sliding into 'catastrophic civil war'?

            IF SYRIAN ARMENIANS WISH TO LIVE IN ARMENIA, PROPER AGENCIES WILL HELP - DIASPORA MINISTER

            news.am
            June 29, 2012 | 14:34

            YEREVAN. - The number of people from Syria who applied for Armenian
            citizenship has sharply increased in 2012, Diaspora Minister Hranush
            Hakobyan told news reporters and added that, in line with the
            latest data, around 2,700 Syrian Armenians have applied for Armenian
            citizenship in January-May of this year.

            In her words, the Ministry is regularly gathering information on
            the situation of the Syrian-Armenian community. She also noted that
            Armenia's state agencies are keeping this matter at the center of
            their attention.

            "We have reflected on this matter since a long time. We need to
            take into account that people are facing a dilemma in this difficult
            situation. They were born and have lived in that country for decades.

            And, now, they are contemplating whether to start everything all
            over again."

            Armenia's Embassy in Damascus and Consulate General in Aleppo continue
            their mission.

            "Today a small number of Syrian Armenians has come to Armenia and
            they are trying to establish themselves in the Motherland. And we are
            helping them in integrating with Armenia's reality," said the Minister.

            "Also, we met with Mr. Mr. Damtew Dessalegne, Representative of the
            United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) [in Armenia],
            and reached arrangement on taking measures, in the case of refugees
            [coming] from Syria, to help them toward implementing joint programs.

            [And] If Syrian Armenians [express a] wish to live in Armenia, the
            Government's proper agencies are prepared to help them settle in
            Armenia," Diaspora Minister Hranush Hakobyan stressed.
            Hayastan or Bust.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Can Syria avoid sliding into 'catastrophic civil war'?

              It looks like half the world is finally standing up against the western imperialists. Here is probably the most important part of the dialogue:

              Press TV: However, how can one explain the US double standards on Syria compared with its role in Bahrain and Yemen? Why is the Western public opinion silent on the atrocities committed against the civilians by the so-called Free Syrian Army, in your opinion?

              Tarpley: I don’t think there’s total silence here in the West. I think there’s an awareness and it’s a growing awareness. Obviously, the first part of your question, this is hypocrisy.

              What I think we’re getting towards now is a situation where you have to frankly admit there are two blocks of states. There’s an imperialist block with the US, the British, NATO, the Israelis and so forth; but then there’s an anti-imperialist block which is very large and quite formidable when you’ve got Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Indonesia. That’s already a great deal.

              Let me also focus on the Pakistani Foreign Minister, Mrs. Khar, who I think made a landmark statement of her own: it’s time now to reject, very categorically, any idea of foreign intervention into Syria.

              This leaves the US in a terrible predicament. We have to see how they’re going to get out and it might be some ugly surprises.
              Webster G. Tarpley, Ph.D.
              PressTV August 11, 2012

              Russia, China, India, Iran, Pakistan, Indonesia, Venezuela, Algeria, Iraq, Cuba, Belarus — 30 Nations Meet in Tehran for Alternative to Hillary Clinton's Attack on Syria

              Last edited by KanadaHye; 08-14-2012, 06:12 PM.
              "Nobody can give you freedom. Nobody can give you equality or justice or anything. If you're a man, you take it." ~Malcolm X

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Can Syria avoid sliding into 'catastrophic civil war'?

                Originally posted by KanadaHye View Post
                It looks like half the world is finally standing up against the western imperialists. Here is probably the most important part of the dialogue:



                Webster G. Tarpley, Ph.D.
                PressTV August 11, 2012

                Russia, China, India, Iran, Pakistan, Indonesia, Venezuela, Algeria, Iraq, Cuba, Belarus — 30 Nations Meet in Tehran for Alternative to Hillary Clinton's Attack on Syria

                Funny thing is Georgia is also participating in that, rather surprising must say.
                Մեկ Ազգ, Մեկ Մշակույթ
                ---
                "Western Assimilation is the greatest threat to the Armenian nation since the Armenian Genocide."

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Can Syria avoid sliding into 'catastrophic civil war'?

                  I know times are tough in Syria, but if the Armenians there are in an area thats stable enough they should stay, b/c if they permanently leave now they will lose a lot of their financial wealth. It's not like they'll be able to sell their homes, land, etc for their normal values, and those who leave thinking they can come back, might come back to find that their homes have been looted and vandalized, or that other people will be living in them.

                  It's also important that they remain, b/c while they're by no means a majority, they are an important enough minority that they can help out Armenia when issues pertaining to Armenia arise in Syria. Or if they simply have to leave, they should leave to Lebanon instead for the same reasons. Armenians already comprise 4% of Lebanon's population, an influx of Armenians from Syria could see that rise to 6%. This would help make sure that Armenia always has at least one ally in the Arab world. Also Christian Arabs in Lebanon would not mind more Christian Armenians to help keep the balance between them and the Muslims, and maybe to help possibly swing it back into the direction of becoming a majority christian country again. It would also be an easier transition for Syrian Armenians to move to Lebanon than Armenia culturally speaking. And also economically speaking, many of them are more likely to stay put Lebanon b/c it'd be easier for them to find jobs there for them than in Armenia or Artsakh, I know it's sad to hear but it's true. Also every-time an Armenian who's not originally from NK, or descended from someone in NK moves there we're technically violating the OSCE Minks groups rules.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Can Syria avoid sliding into 'catastrophic civil war'?

                    Here is a nice propaganda piece by the eshes at the ASSociated Press


                    UN chief warns Syria on chemical weapons

                    Syria has begun loading nerve gas agents into aerial bombs, NBC says

                    CNN reported Wednesday that U.S. military and intelligence officials are consulting with Syria's neighbours — Turkey, Israel and Jordan — about what to do if it looks as if Assad is about to launch a chemical attack on his own people.
                    http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2...l-warning.html
                    "Nobody can give you freedom. Nobody can give you equality or justice or anything. If you're a man, you take it." ~Malcolm X

                    Comment

                    Working...
                    X