Energy in Azerbaijan

[Vrej1915]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

2015 թվականին Ադրբեջանում նավթի օրական արդյունահանման ծավալը կնվազի 40.000 բարելով. OPEC

168.AM

Մարտ 17 2015

Ադրբեջանական Yeni Müsavat թերթի փոխանցմամբ՝ Նավթ արտահանող երկրների կազմակերպությունը (OPEC) կանխատեսել է, որ 2015 թվականին հետխորհրդային երկրներում կգրանցվի նավթի արդյունահանման նվազեցում՝ համեմատած նախորդ տարվա հետ:

Այս մասին նշված է OPEC-ի մարտյան զեկույցում: 2014 թվականի հետ համեմատ՝ 2015 թվականին Ռուսաստանում նավթի օրական արդյունահանման ծավալը նվազելու է 60.000 բարելով, Ադրբեջանում այն կազմելու է օրական 40.000 բարել, Ղազախստանում՝ 20.000 բարել, իսկ հետխորհրդային մնացյալ երկրներում՝ գլխավորապես Թուրքմենստանում՝ 10.000 բարել:

OPEC-ի կանխատեսման համաձայն՝ ընդհանուր առմամբ 2015 թվականին, 2014 թփվականի հետ համեմատ, հետխորհրդային երկրներում (ներառյալ Ռուսաստանը) նավթի օրական արդյունահանման ծավալը նվազելու է 130.000 բարելով՝ տարվա կտրվածքով կազմելով 13.3 միլիոն բարել:

Ամբողջական հոդվածը կարող եք կարդալ այս հասցեով՝ http://168.am/2015/03/17/468240.html
© 168 Ժամ առցանց լրատվական կայք

[Vrej1915]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani, Georgian Presidents In Turkey For TANAP Ceremony


Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (right) hosted his Azerbaijani and Georgian counterparts, Ilham Aliyev (center) and Giorgi Margvelashvili in Kars on March 17.


By RFE/RL
Last updated (GMT/UTC): 17.03.2015 16:39

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Georgian President Giorgi Margvelashvili were in Turkey on March 17 to attend a ceremony marking the start of the construction of the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP).

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hosted the two leaders in the town of Kars, where the foundation for the 1,850-kilometer pipeline was laid.

Erdogan said at the groundbreaking ceremony, "We plan to establish Turkey as the energy distribution hub of the region."

The pipeline aims initially to bring gas from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz 2 offshore gas field through the existing South Caucasus Pipeline that runs through Georgia to Turkey where it will be pumped into TANAP.

According to plans, when TANAP is completed in 2018 it would connect to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline to bring the gas into Europe.

Estimates for the cost of building TANAP are somewhere between $10 billion to $11 billion. Azerbaijani state energy company SOCAR owns 58 percent of the project, Turkey Botas 30 percent, and BP has the remaining 12 percent.

The European Union is including TANAP as one of the routes in the EU's Southern Gas Corridor project.

Maros Sefcovic, the European Commission's vice president in charge of energy union, was also attending the ceremony in Kars.

TANAP will carry some 16 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas during its first phase, 10 bcm of which will go to Europe and 6 bcm to western Turkey.

Plans call for TANAP to eventually carry some 31 bcm of gas, which will require other countries to supply gas to the pipeline.

The EU has sponsored meetings about the Southern Gas Corridor with officials from Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan in an attempt to include the latter country as a supplier.

Officials from Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan have also met several times this year to discuss Turkmenistan's participation in shipping gas through Turkey to Europe.

Turkmenistan has the fourth-largest gas reserves in the world but does not have a pipeline to ship gas exports westward.

The EU and Azerbaijan have been discussing construction of a Trans-Caspian pipeline to bring Turkmen gas to Azerbaijan where it would be pumped into the pipeline network leading west.

With reporting by Trend.az, Interfax, and AFP

[Vrej1915]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Թուրք-ադրբեջանական խողովակը հայկական Կարսում

ՆԱԻՐԱ ՀԱՅՐՈՒՄՅԱՆ, Մեկնաբան
Քաղաքականություն - 17 Մարտի 2015,


Թուրքիայի, Ադրբեջանի ու Վրաստանի նախագահները Կարս են մեկնել՝ մասնակցելու TANAP խողովակաշարի կառուցման մեկնարկի արարողությանը, որով Ադրբեջանը պետք է գազ մատակարարի Եվրոպային:

Թուրքիան վերջնականապես ընտրել է ադրբեջանական խողովակը՝ հրաժարվելով ռուսական Թուրքական հոսք նախագծից: Ավելին, ինչպես թուրքական մամուլն է գրում, թուրքական BOTAŞ ընկերությունը հրաժարվել է Գազպրոմի հետ 10.25%-ի զեղչի համաձայնագիր ստորագրել մատակարարվող ռուսական գազի դիմաց: Թուրքիան 15%-ի զեղչ է խնդրել, սակայն Ռուսաստանը չի համաձայնվել:

Բանն, իհարկե, զեղչը չէ, այլ այն, որ Եվրոպան հրաժարվել է ռուսական գազ գնել նույնիսկ Թուրքական հոսքով: Եվրոպական էներգետիկ նոր խարտիայի համաձայն՝ Ռուսաստանը Եվրոպայի ռազմավարական գործընկերների շարքում չէ: Հիմա ռուսական գազը նոր գնորդներ պետք է փնտրի երկրի ներսում կամ էլ աղքատ Հայաստանում:

Այսօր հայտնի է դարձել, որ Ռուսաստանում հուլիսի 1-ից գազի գինը բարձրանալու է 7.5%-ով: Հայաստանում գազի գինը, ինչպես հայտնի է, կապված է ռուսական ներքին գներին, այնպես որ, չի բացառվում, որ Հայաստանում հուլիսի 1-ից գազը կթանկանա:

Այս ամենը տեղի է ունենում համաշխարհային շուկայում նավթի ու գազի գնի նվազման պայմաններում: Նավթի տարեկան ֆյուչերսներն արդեն մոտենում են զրոյական մակարդակի: Դա նշանակում է, որ շատ շուտով նավթն ու գազը պարզապես կկորցնեն գինը: Դրանք արդեն կորցրել են քաղաքական նշանակությունը, եւ ներկայում նավթի ու գազի պաշարներ ունեցողները փորձում են շտապ վաճառել դրանք:

Ներկայում աշխարհում տեղի է ունենում տեխնոլոգիական հեղափոխություն, եւ անցումը նոր էներգետիկային սպասվածից ավելի արագ է ընթանում:
Իրանի նավթի նախարար Բիջան Զանգանեն այսօր հայտարարել է, որ հենց երկրի վրայից հանվեն պատժամիջոցները, Իրանն օրական արդյունահանման ծավալները կավելացնի 1 միլիոն բարելով: Իրանը նույնպես ցանկանում է արագորեն վաճառել իր նավթը, նույնիսկ ցածր գներով:

Այս ֆոնին, Կարսում TANAP խողովակաշարի կառուցումն ավելի շատ քաղաքական-քարոզչական միջոցառում է, որը երկրների միջև որոշակի քաղաքական հարաբերություններ ընդգծելու նպատակ ունի: Պատահական չէ, որ այդ միջոցառումը որոշել են անցկացնել հայկական Կարսում:

- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/arm/0/pol....dq3U64YG.dpuf

[Tsov]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan: The Pipe Dream of Economic Diversification The country’s president vows to wean it off of oil revenues, but impressive 'growth' seems driven by inefficient, corrupt reinvestment of petrodollars. by Mina Muradova 7 April 2015 "Economic diversification" became the mantra of Ilham Aliev, the strongman president of Azerbaijan, even before the global recession sparked a sharp drop in oil and gas prices. But since then, he rarely fails to trumpet the development of other sectors of the economy – pointing to a 20 percentage point drop in the share of oil revenues in GDP since pre-crisis days, and an economic growth rate of 6.9 percent last year. "We have built a competitive economy and managed to reduce unemployment and poverty to five percent" reads a 13 March post from Aliev's official Twitter account. "If in previous years we mainly depended on oil and gas prices, oil and gas currently make 40 percent of the GDP" he says in another tweet. But is it just window dressing? Although the "land of fire" has foreign exchange reserves to burn ($54 billion as of early 2014), experts remain skeptical of the official statistics on economic growth and the prospects for Azerbaijan's national development concept, "Azerbaijan 2020: Look Into the Future," the main thrust of which is economic diversification. Analysts predict Aliev’s Baku miracle might well prove to be smoke and mirrors as further oil price zigzags – such as when it went from $100 per barrel last June to $55 by end-December 2014 – reveal the true level of dependence on the one sector. Meanwhile, Aliev continues to project confidence. "Despite the fact that oil prices plummeted at the end of last year, the economy of Azerbaijan has increased by almost 3 percent. It is very delightful that our non-oil sector has increased by 7 percent," he said at the government meeting convened to assess the 2014 development goals. "The development of the non-oil sector will enable us to achieve a diversified development of the economy and ensure its sustainable development," he added. But with the unfavorable oil pricing trend expected to continue through 2015, could the very budgets aimed at promoting diversification and development be scaled back? Not to worry, says Aliev's adviser Ali Hasanov. The government is working to generate alternative revenue streams to help it ride out this spell of low oil prices, he told the Financial Times. These include the introduction of taxes on bank deposits and property sales, and on luxury items such as imported cars. Hasanov said no new taxes will be imposed on private companies in the non-oil sector. Azerbaijan has been famous for its abundant oil wells since the early 20th century and seemingly inexhaustible natural gas deposits since ancient times, even before the Zoroastrians began building fire temples around "eternal flames" springing from gas vents in the ground. But the government knows that the eternal flame, along with oil reserves, must one day vanish. Economic Development Minister Shahin Mustafayev says there has been a "positive dynamic" in the shift away from the oil sector, "and as a result, industries, agriculture, information technologies, tourism and other non-oil sectors have been developing," he said in a speech highlighting last year’s economic progress, APA reported. Non-oil industries increased production more than twofold in the past 10 years, and the industrial sector has entered "a new phase" of development, extending to the metallurgy and chemical industries as well as creating new jobs in the space and defense industry, alternative energy generation, and shipyards, he said. Benchmark macroeconomic measures, such growth in per capita GDP (now at $7,900), put Azerbaijan among the "upper middle income" countries, as ranked by the World Bank – a status it obtained ahead of its neighbors in the Caucasus region. The government articulates these and other ambitions in its "Azerbaijan 2020” strategic plan, including its goal to double GDP per capita by that time and transform into a competitive country, high-income economy. But back to oil – and backing away from it. The strategy calls for annual real growth in the non-oil sector of 7 percent by 2020. And here the UN, in a report two years ago on Azerbaijan's post-2015 development, is less than enthusiastic. Despite economic achievements in Azerbaijan, its continued dependence on oil to grow the economy leaves it precariously tied to production and global prices. "Oil reserves alone have done little to improve decent employment and income generation opportunities for large sectors of the population.” This is not surprising seeing that the sector represents only 1 percent of total employment, the report said. "What's more, inequality in living standards and opportunities is increasingly apparent between regions, both in rural and urban areas, and population groups that benefit from the oil boom and those that do not," the UN reported. The government now says the priority sectors for development are the information and communications industries, non-oil industries, agriculture, and tourism. But it's hardly the first time industries have been targeted. A review of state programs and strategies adopted in the decade after 2000 confirmed that economic diversification has been a clearly declared top policy priority for going on 15 years now. What the strategies reveal is more of a wish list than actual policies, said Azer Mehtiyev, co-author of a 2012 assessment of the country’s diversification policy for the National Resource Governance Institute: “They are mostly populist, not result-oriented programs; they don't show what we will achieve as a result of particular state funding or action in a particular area." "As a result, we can't see how efficient a state policy is and why this or that result could not be achieved." Much of the non-oil sector growth in Azerbaijan is, in fact, driven by the government's reinvestment of its oil earnings in construction and infrastructure. According to official statistics, total investment in 2014 amounted to $27.7 billion, more than 66 percent of which was directed to non-oil industries. The UN experts say an indicator of real success in the economic diversification effort would be an increase in per capita non-oil exports. Mehtiyev, who is also chairman of the Center for Support of Economic Initiatives think tank, has said official statistics of non-oil development are somewhat "inflated" and even "manipulated." While the government claims the non-oil sector accounts for 60 percent of GDP, most of that is from the investments allocated from the state budget to big companies – and in non-transparent ways, with the money partially appropriated and then again re-invested in particular for purchases of overpriced equipment, he said. That all adds up to a paper tiger. "The majority of these enterprises are not competitive and not export-oriented. Using close relations to powerful people, these companies drive out similar imported goods from the domestic market by unfair methods and mostly survive thanks to domestic consumers and state orders," Mehtiyev said. In this respect, Azerbaijan is like many other former Soviet countries: it still suffers from a legacy of bureaucratic corruption. Economic analyst Rovshan Agayev wrote in his blog that "72 percent of export revenues in 2014 were received by the government, 23 percent by state-funded companies and a few oligarch groups, and a tiny percent by thousands of small companies." If exports of oil and gas, chemical products and power are excluded, it is clear that non-oil export in 2014 made up a paltry $1.5 billion, he writes – and monopoly food, metals, and plastic producers accounted for almost half of that, he said. Baku has taken steps to improve the business environment, such as setting up a "one-stop shop" for company registration. But here, too, lingering structural problems remain. Much of the country's economic activity is controlled by a few large family holding companies with links to powerful people, the president and his family not the least among them. International financial organizations are urging the government to strive for "sustainable" economic diversification in the business sector, supported by reforms to improve governance and transparency. "The potential for businesses to thrive is huge in Azerbaijan's region, and many opportunities have been overlooked for a long time," Neil McKain, head of the EBRD's Baku office, said on the bank’s website. "Building a strong SME sector is key to supporting sustainable growth and helping to build a diverse economy in the long run." McKain told Reuters that the EBRD has encouraged the government's efforts to reduce dependency on the oil and gas sector, providing loans worth $2.1 billion to support 134 projects, most in the private sector. "I think the government has become very serious about diversification. It will require a constant reform process, if the government is going to stay at this 10 percent growth in the non-oil economy every year," he said. The government is on track with some of the right policies, McKain said, but "there is not as much progress as we want to see when it comes to tackling corruption." Although by 2019, Baku may boast the world's tallest building, the proposed 189-floor Azerbaijan Tower, poking more than a kilometer into the sky, 39 percent of the country's labor force is grounded in agriculture, and 47 percent of Azerbaijan's population (and 70 percent of its poor) live in rural areas. The government has declared 2015 the "Year of Agriculture" – and there is much to be developed, the UN report says. "The sector faces weaknesses in the legal and regulatory system (quality standards, resolution of contractual disputes) and infrastructure provision (irrigation, availability of secondary roads), and in low availability of credit," the report says. "At the same time, policymaking has not been pro-active enough. Other problems include insufficient access to financing and leasing programs for agricultural inputs, including machinery." In addition, the economic analyst Agayev notes, instead of creating cooperatives that could help small farms work together to boost efficiency, the government is channeling money to large farms owned by oligarchs through the National Fund for Entrepreneurship Support. The fund has allocated $48 million to 19 large farms run by 15 companies. The economist Natig Jafarli, executive secretary of the opposition REAL movement, says that it will take more than investments in the non-oil sector: achieving real economic diversification will require revolutionary institutional reforms – and again, fighting corruption must be a priority. "The government should improve the business climate through a serious fight against corruption, ensure economic freedoms, extend decentralization in regional governance, establish a truly independent court system, and accelerate membership in the World Trade Organization," he said, noting that Azerbaijan remains the only country in the South Caucasus outside the WTO. But with little interest in such profound reforms from the government and president and opposition from ruling elites who see change as a threat to their power, real economic diversification remains a long way off, Jafarli said. Mina Muradova is a pseudonym for a freelance journalist in Baku.

http://www.tol.org/client/article/24753-azerbaijan-the-pipe-dream-of-economic-diversification.html#.VSZIvc-1JcY.twitter

[Mher]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Will Azerbaijani National Currency be re-depreciated in 2015?
Posted by Administrator on Thursday, April 2, 2015 · Leave a Comment

The future of the Azerbaijani national currency is the hot topic in the existing agenda. Although Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) announced on April 02, 2015 that no sudden changes in the currency policy are expected since the oil prices will be likely remain at the level of $50-55 per barrel until the end of the year: “It’s unlikely that the manat, Azerbaijan’s national currency, exchange rate will suddenly fall this year, as such process is connected with the oil prices at the world market”. However, CBA warns about possibility of the next devaluation of the national currency: “CBA doesn’t exclude possibility of further devaluation of the manat, which can happen in case of violent fluctuations in the global energy resources market”.

As for the situation in the financial market due to devaluation of the national currency, CBA has announced that the dollarization process is now active in the country and it will slow down in April-May, 2015: “The transfer to the floating exchange rate of the manat is not possible at the moment, as the manat can demonstrate sudden surge if interventions are stopped. Over a day the exchange rate of the national currency can be changed by 20% and more, which will take negative effect the economic relations in the country”. “Dollarization cost $1 billion US since the national currency was devaluated”, – concluded CBA.

CESD experts has pointed out that due to the decline of its currency reserves CBA still firmly considers re-devaluation of the manat as one of possible options: “Caused by oil price decline in the world market, Central Bank’s intervention costs have increased since August 2014 in Azerbaijan. Due to intervention costs, CBAR lost its currency reserves only by 8.0 % only during January, the first month of 2015. CBA currency reserves haven declined to $ 11, 766 billion US by February 01, 2015. CBA spent extra $ 1,676 billion US in February and Central Bank’s currency reserves declined by 13.2 % only this month. CBA intervention continued in March 2015 too and Central Bank lost additional $ 1,0 billion US in March, 2015. CBA’s currency reserves have decreased by around $ 6.0 billion US since oil price has dropped. Low oil price will push the CBAR to extend local currency sterilization in up-coming months of 2015”.

The question, again is whether the manat will be re-devaluated again in the light of losing of the country’s currency reserves?

According to the CESD experts, there is a need to look at the various scenarios. The optimist scenario is related to the raising of the oil price in the world market. If the price of oil in the world market raises, strengthen national currency rate will be observed in the second half of 2015. Of course, the strengthening of the national currency in this case, does not mean that the manat will be appreciated to the previous rate. If oil price increases to $ 90-100 US per barrel then the manat would appreciated to 1 dollar= 0.95 manat ratio. However, CESD accepts that this scenario is less realistic one. The second scenario is based on oil prices of $ 55-60 per barrel which matches to the current situation. In this case, the central bank will try to change the exchange rate within the corridor by the fall, 2015. The CBA’s corridor is about 5.0 %. This means that the change in the range of 1 cent to $ 1,0 equals 1.04-1.10 manat. This is a intermediate scenario. Pessimistic scenario is that the price of oil in the world market has fallen below $ 40 US per barrel. The Central Bank has announced that this is a cutoff line since the country’s balance of payments would have a deficit instead of surpluses in this case. If the world market price of oil falls below $ 40 US per barrel, then more currency will leave the country rather than received. In this case, it is inevitable devaluation of the manat. At that point, the manat will be re-devaluated by around 30.0 % by the end of 2015.

In his words, the national currency’s future directly depends on crude oil price in the world market. News from the stock exchange are still pessimistic.

http://cesd.az/new/?p=9343

Monthly Decline of Foreign Currency Reserves of Azerbaijan
December 1 billion USD
January 1 billion USD
February 1.7 billion USD
March 1 billion USD

Overall the currency reserves are down from $16 billion USD in July to $9 billion USD at the end of March. This country won't make it past New Year at this rate

[Mher]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

http://cesd.az/new/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Azerbaijani_oil_Income_march_2015.pdf

[Chubs]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Will Azerbaijani National Currency be re-depreciated in 2015?
Posted by Administrator on Thursday, April 2, 2015 · Leave a Comment

The future of the Azerbaijani national currency is the hot topic in the existing agenda. Although Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) announced on April 02, 2015 that no sudden changes in the currency policy are expected since the oil prices will be likely remain at the level of $50-55 per barrel until the end of the year: “It’s unlikely that the manat, Azerbaijan’s national currency, exchange rate will suddenly fall this year, as such process is connected with the oil prices at the world market”. However, CBA warns about possibility of the next devaluation of the national currency: “CBA doesn’t exclude possibility of further devaluation of the manat, which can happen in case of violent fluctuations in the global energy resources market”.

As for the situation in the financial market due to devaluation of the national currency, CBA has announced that the dollarization process is now active in the country and it will slow down in April-May, 2015: “The transfer to the floating exchange rate of the manat is not possible at the moment, as the manat can demonstrate sudden surge if interventions are stopped. Over a day the exchange rate of the national currency can be changed by 20% and more, which will take negative effect the economic relations in the country”. “Dollarization cost $1 billion US since the national currency was devaluated”, – concluded CBA.

CESD experts has pointed out that due to the decline of its currency reserves CBA still firmly considers re-devaluation of the manat as one of possible options: “Caused by oil price decline in the world market, Central Bank’s intervention costs have increased since August 2014 in Azerbaijan. Due to intervention costs, CBAR lost its currency reserves only by 8.0 % only during January, the first month of 2015. CBA currency reserves haven declined to $ 11, 766 billion US by February 01, 2015. CBA spent extra $ 1,676 billion US in February and Central Bank’s currency reserves declined by 13.2 % only this month. CBA intervention continued in March 2015 too and Central Bank lost additional $ 1,0 billion US in March, 2015. CBA’s currency reserves have decreased by around $ 6.0 billion US since oil price has dropped. Low oil price will push the CBAR to extend local currency sterilization in up-coming months of 2015”.

The question, again is whether the manat will be re-devaluated again in the light of losing of the country’s currency reserves?

According to the CESD experts, there is a need to look at the various scenarios. The optimist scenario is related to the raising of the oil price in the world market. If the price of oil in the world market raises, strengthen national currency rate will be observed in the second half of 2015. Of course, the strengthening of the national currency in this case, does not mean that the manat will be appreciated to the previous rate. If oil price increases to $ 90-100 US per barrel then the manat would appreciated to 1 dollar= 0.95 manat ratio. However, CESD accepts that this scenario is less realistic one. The second scenario is based on oil prices of $ 55-60 per barrel which matches to the current situation. In this case, the central bank will try to change the exchange rate within the corridor by the fall, 2015. The CBA’s corridor is about 5.0 %. This means that the change in the range of 1 cent to $ 1,0 equals 1.04-1.10 manat. This is a intermediate scenario. Pessimistic scenario is that the price of oil in the world market has fallen below $ 40 US per barrel. The Central Bank has announced that this is a cutoff line since the country’s balance of payments would have a deficit instead of surpluses in this case. If the world market price of oil falls below $ 40 US per barrel, then more currency will leave the country rather than received. In this case, it is inevitable devaluation of the manat. At that point, the manat will be re-devaluated by around 30.0 % by the end of 2015.

In his words, the national currency’s future directly depends on crude oil price in the world market. News from the stock exchange are still pessimistic.

http://cesd.az/new/?p=9343

Monthly Decline of Foreign Currency Reserves of Azerbaijan
December 1 billion USD
January 1 billion USD
February 1.7 billion USD
March 1 billion USD

Overall the currency reserves are down from $16 billion USD in July to $9 billion USD at the end of March. This country won't make it past New Year at this rate

Interesting development, I would expect by the end of the year their reserves will be fully depleted?

Low oil prices, Shiite Radicals taking over whats left of the opposition...I think Armenia's wet dream is finally coming true.

Destabilization of Azerbaijan.

[Mher]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Interesting development, I would expect by the end of the year their reserves will be fully depleted?

It's hard to predict what exactly will happen, but one thing that seems likely is that oil prices will not go up. Exxon has set their 2017 price forecast at $55/barrel.

I assume they'll want to avoid a sudden all out collapse that'll come with defending the currency all the way and exhausting all reserves. They'll probably give up on the current pegged exchange rate and move on to a floating exchange rate- the natural rate set by supply and demand- when they go under $5 billion USD or so in a few months. Either that or they'll devalue the currency again and try to maintain that exchange rate.

they can try borrowing when things gets dire- like how Armenia is now doing- or they can tap into their SOFAZ Oil Fund for currency use- but I'm not sure if that's even technically allowed under their internal rules of operation for the SOFAZ fund.

Either way, this will introduce a lot of shock and unpleasant surprises for a population that has put up with a lot of nonsense assuming they'll have stability and basic needs of life.

[Mher]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani Oil Fund’s reserves have declined by 5.9 %

The assets of the State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) have dropped by 5.86% compared to the beginning of 2015 from $ 37,104 billion US. to $ 34, 930 billion US. Budget revenues of the SOFAZ reached 2,028 billion manat ($ 1, 932 billion US with new rate) , while budget expenditures constituted 2,336 billion manat ($ 2,225 billion US with new rate) in the first quarter of 2015. 1,939 billion manat ($ 1,846 billion US with new rate) was received from the implementation of oil and gas agreements, including 1,936 billion manat ($1,844 billion US with new rate) from the sale of profit oil and gas. The revenues from managing assets of the Fund for the first quarter of 2015 amounted to 89.1 million manat ($ 84,9 million US with new rate).

SOFAZ has also reported that 1,942 billion manat ($ 1,849 billion US with new rate) were transferred to the state budget. Meanwhile, 307.4 million manat ($ 292,7 million US with new rate) were directed to financing the “Southern Gas Corridor” project.

CESD experts have underlined that the manat’s devaluation has helped the SOFAZ to minimize the dropping of its reserves. The manat’s depreciation against the dollar will aid SOFAZ, to some extent, to save its reserves in up-coming months, too. SOFAZ’s 2015 income will be $13,136 billion US if the average crude oil price in the world market is $90 US per barrel during year. Meanwhile, expenditures will be 11, 814 billion manat ($15,146 billion US at the previous exchange rate of the manat and $11.251 billion US at new exchange rate) in 2015 according to the official law on the State Oil Fund. The very important fact is that SOFAZ’s revenue is in US dollars but its expenditure is in Azerbaijani manat. This means themanat’s devaluation will help the Oil Fund save $3,895 billion US in oil money ($15,146 billion US- $ 11,251 billion US) in 2015 alone. On the other hand CESD’s latest assessment shows that SOFAZ will earn $4.5 billion US less if crude oil’s average price is $60 US per barrel in 2015. Then, the oil fund’s total income will be $8.636 billion US instead of $13,136 billion US in 2015. In this case, SOFAZ’s income in local currency will be $9,067 billion manat. It means that SOFAZ will be able to reach its 2015 fiscal targets through the devaluation. The Government of Azerbaijan will also manage to slightly reduce the declining ratio of its currency and state reserves.

CESD has also reported that decline of SOFAZ reserves will continue in up-coming months of 2015 if crude oil price stays less $ 80 US per barrel.

http://cesd.az/new/?p=9435

SOFAZ Down from $37.1 Billion at Start of the year to 34.9 Billion at end of Q1. The fallout though serious, is not much worse, because of the currency devaluation

[Mher]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

About another Billion of revenue lost compared to last year
Azeri Oil Exports and Revenue-April Update