Announcement

Collapse

Forum Rules (Everyone Must Read!!!)

1] What you CAN NOT post.

You agree, through your use of this service, that you will not use this forum to post any material which is:
- abusive
- vulgar
- hateful
- harassing
- personal attacks
- obscene

You also may not:
- post images that are too large (max is 500*500px)
- post any copyrighted material unless the copyright is owned by you or cited properly.
- post in UPPER CASE, which is considered yelling
- post messages which insult the Armenians, Armenian culture, traditions, etc
- post racist or other intentionally insensitive material that insults or attacks another culture (including Turks)

The Ankap thread is excluded from the strict rules because that place is more relaxed and you can vent and engage in light insults and humor. Notice it's not a blank ticket, but just a place to vent. If you go into the Ankap thread, you enter at your own risk of being clowned on.
What you PROBABLY SHOULD NOT post...
Do not post information that you will regret putting out in public. This site comes up on Google, is cached, and all of that, so be aware of that as you post. Do not ask the staff to go through and delete things that you regret making available on the web for all to see because we will not do it. Think before you post!


2] Use descriptive subject lines & research your post. This means use the SEARCH.

This reduces the chances of double-posting and it also makes it easier for people to see what they do/don't want to read. Using the search function will identify existing threads on the topic so we do not have multiple threads on the same topic.

3] Keep the focus.

Each forum has a focus on a certain topic. Questions outside the scope of a certain forum will either be moved to the appropriate forum, closed, or simply be deleted. Please post your topic in the most appropriate forum. Users that keep doing this will be warned, then banned.

4] Behave as you would in a public location.

This forum is no different than a public place. Behave yourself and act like a decent human being (i.e. be respectful). If you're unable to do so, you're not welcome here and will be made to leave.

5] Respect the authority of moderators/admins.

Public discussions of moderator/admin actions are not allowed on the forum. It is also prohibited to protest moderator actions in titles, avatars, and signatures. If you don't like something that a moderator did, PM or email the moderator and try your best to resolve the problem or difference in private.

6] Promotion of sites or products is not permitted.

Advertisements are not allowed in this venue. No blatant advertising or solicitations of or for business is prohibited.
This includes, but not limited to, personal resumes and links to products or
services with which the poster is affiliated, whether or not a fee is charged
for the product or service. Spamming, in which a user posts the same message repeatedly, is also prohibited.

7] We retain the right to remove any posts and/or Members for any reason, without prior notice.


- PLEASE READ -

Members are welcome to read posts and though we encourage your active participation in the forum, it is not required. If you do participate by posting, however, we expect that on the whole you contribute something to the forum. This means that the bulk of your posts should not be in "fun" threads (e.g. Ankap, Keep & Kill, This or That, etc.). Further, while occasionally it is appropriate to simply voice your agreement or approval, not all of your posts should be of this variety: "LOL Member213!" "I agree."
If it is evident that a member is simply posting for the sake of posting, they will be removed.


8] These Rules & Guidelines may be amended at any time. (last update September 17, 2009)

If you believe an individual is repeatedly breaking the rules, please report to admin/moderator.
See more
See less

Energy in Azerbaijan

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

    U.S. Urges Greece to Reject Russian Energy Project

    ATHENS — The United States, wading into the international efforts to shape Greece’s economic and geopolitical orientation, is pushing the leftist government in Athens to resist Russia’s energy overtures.

    A State Department envoy in Athens urged Greece on Friday to embrace a Western-backed project that would link Europe to natural gas supplies in Azerbaijan, rather than agree to a gas pipeline project pushed by Moscow.

    The dueling sales pitches, reminiscent of a Cold War struggle, come as debt-burdened Greece is desperate for new sources of revenue of the sort that a gas pipeline could bring.

    In an interview in Athens on Friday, before meeting with Greek officials, the State Department envoy, Amos J. Hochstein, said Greece would increase its appeal to Western investors — and would help reduce the European Union’s dependence on Russian gas supplies — if it declined to play host to a pipeline proposed by the Russian state-controlled energy giant Gazprom.

    That pipeline would carry Russian gas to Europe through Turkey and Greece, bypassing pipelines that run through Ukraine.


    Washington’s push against the Russian pipeline project follows a stalemate in negotiations between Greece and its international creditors aimed at unlocking further loans. Even as Greece’s European neighbors are focused on the country’s ability to repay its debts, the United States is intent on addressing Greece’s geopolitical value as a NATO outpost at the southern tip of the Balkans and as an important gateway for energy from Central Asia.

    Mr. Hochstein said Moscow’s interests were not aligned with Greece’s financial needs. The Russian pipeline plan, he said in the interview, “is not an economic project” but is “only about politics.”

    The geopolitical tug of war over Europe’s energy supply is growing increasingly intense.

    The Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, spoke by telephone with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras of Greece about the Gazprom pipeline project on Thursday. And Mr. Tsipras’s office has confirmed his country’s readiness to take part in the construction of a Greek pipeline to transfer Russian natural gas from the Greek-Turkish border to Europe.

    The Greek foreign minister, Nikos Kotzias, has said that the Greek portion of the Russian-backed project could be worth billions of dollars to his country. Turkey and Russia, however, have still not agreed on the Turkish part of that proposed pipeline, which means any Gazprom deal with Greece would be meaningless unless the Turks and the Russians can come to terms.

    In a speech in Berlin in April, Gazprom’s chairman, Alexey Miller, described Turkish Stream as “a real blessing for the entire European gas market,” and he said the project would follow European rules. According to a transcript posted on Gazprom’s website on Friday, Mr. Miller told Russian state media that “Turkish Stream will start in December 2016.” Mr. Miller also said the company had “made a decision to start building the maritime section of Turkish Stream,” according to the transcript.

    Turkish officials on Friday indicated that discussions with Gazprom were headed in a positive direction. But those officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity in keeping with government protocol, said any final agreement would only be reached after further negotiations.

    The discussions between Moscow and Athens come as Greece’s funds are running low and it desperately seeks new investment. Without new revenue or additional loans, Greece risks defaulting on billions of dollars of foreign debt in coming months. That could force a Greek exit from the euro currency union and would have unpredictable implications for financial markets in Europe and beyond.

    Athens is expected to be able to pay an installment of about 750 million euros, or about $850 million, that is due on Tuesday to the International Monetary Fund. But when eurozone finance ministers meet on Monday in Brussels, there will be urgent questions about how long Greece can manage without fresh funds.

    European and international lenders continue to hold back on releasing €7.2 billion in funds from a bailout program, demanding economic overhauls in Greece that the Tsipras government has so far been reluctant to carry out.

    Although the Greek news media reported on Friday that Greece and its creditors were edging closer in their negotiations, with a series of tax increases under consideration, the contentious issues of pension and labor overhauls continued to hamper progress. Mr. Tsipras said in Parliament on Friday that he was optimistic that there would be a “happy end” to the talks soon. But he also emphasized that Greece was sticking to its “red lines” of protecting pensions and workers’ rights.

    While revenue from a new gas pipeline could be years away, such a project — whether with Russian or Western backing — would have obvious allure for Greece.

    The Russian proposal is for a pipeline called Turkish Stream. It is intended to replace an earlier Russian initiative for a pipeline to Europe called South Stream, which Mr. Putin was forced to abandon late last year because of European Union rules that would have made the project unpalatable to Moscow by requiring Gazprom to share the pipeline with other suppliers. The South Stream pipeline, running under the Black Sea, would have brought gas into the European Union through Bulgaria.

    Mr. Hochstein, the American official, said on Friday that the pipeline he was promoting — called the Southern Gas Corridor project — was farther along in construction. It would involve multiple companies, including the British energy giant BP, and countries including Georgia and Turkey, and it would bring together a series of pipeline projects stretching from Azerbaijan to Italy, through Greece.

    When the route now known as the Southern Gas Corridor was first proposed more than a decade ago, it was called Nabucco and did not include Greece. Instead, its entry point to the European Union would have been Bulgaria. But Azerbaijan subsequently selected other routes for transporting its gas, including one that would run from the Turkish border through Greece and Albania into Italy. Work has begun in eastern Turkey on another portion of the pipeline.

    Greece’s government, and its predecessor, have both agreed in principle to the Greek portion of the pipeline from Azerbaijan. But Athens and the Azerbaijanis have not yet been able to come to terms on the financial portion of a deal and other details. Mr. Hochstein on Friday was urging Greece to press ahead with the project.

    “It is an excellent project for Greece as it will create a significant amount of jobs,” Mr. Hochstein said.

    In a statement released on Friday, the United States Embassy in Athens said the portion of the pipeline crossing Greece would result in €1.5 billion in foreign investment in Greece, generate 10,000 jobs during construction, and provide many millions of euros in revenue each year for the next quarter-century.

    Mr. Hochstein met with the Greek energy minister, Panagiotis Lafazanis, who said afterward that there had been a “very essential and honest exchange of views.”

    “We want a multilevel and independent energy policy that will be formed exclusively on the basis of our national interest, the interest of the Greek people and, of course, the cooperation and energy security in our region and in Europe,” Mr. Lafazanis said.

    Greece’s commitment to the Southern Gas Corridor project could help it attract further investment to develop its offshore gas resources, Mr. Hochstein said, at a time when other Mediterranean nations like Israel and Cyprus have made significant discoveries of natural gas.

    The European Commission in Brussels, the executive arm of the European Union, has long accused Moscow of using gas pipelines, including ones not yet built, to exercise control over European energy systems and to partition supplies and keep prices high — especially in Baltic countries like Lithuania with few alternatives for suppliers.

    Last month, after years of European Union threats of taking such an action, Margrethe Vestager, the European antitrust chief, charged Gazprom with abusing its dominance in natural gas markets — a move amounting to a direct challenge to the authorities in Moscow.

    Ms. Vestager, in making those formal charges, also said that Gazprom might have been leveraging its powerful market position in Bulgaria and Poland by making supplies of gas conditional on those countries’ agreeing to take part in pipeline projects like South Stream to carry Russian gas into Europe.

    Gazprom could eventually face a fine exceeding €10 billion. But the larger worry for Gazprom in that case is the prospect of being forced to allow more competition in markets it has long controlled.

    Mr. Hochstein said on Friday that Gazprom’s proposed Turkish Stream would be bad for Europe because it would extend Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. Running a Southern Corridor pipeline through Greece would benefit Europe and would enhance Greece’s longer-term goals of diversification and of developing its own energy resources, he said.

    Last edited by Mher; 05-09-2015, 01:12 PM.

    Comment


    • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      $ 1,703 billion US: Central Bank of Azerbaijan’s Monthly Intervention Cost
      Monday, May 11, 2015

      Azerbaijan’s currency reserves have been dramatically declined in the last couple of months

      The Central Bank of Azerbaijan’s (CBA) intervention cost was $ 1,073 billion US in April 2015. Bank’s total currency reserves declined to $ 8,397 billion US in April 2015 since it was $ 9.47 billion US previous month. Reminded here that CBA’s currency reserves were $11.004 billion US by 1 March, $12.68 billion US by 1 February $13.758 billion US by 1 January 2015. Currency reserves have been declined from $ 15,193 billion US in August 2014 to $ 8,397 billion US in April 2015.

      CBA’s currency reserves have been declined by $ 6,796 billion US in last 8 months. Decrease of CBA currency reserves in April 2015 totaled $1.08 billion US (-11.4%). In 2015 their decrease totals already $5.37 billion Us (-39%). In accordance with CBA forecast, by the end of 2014 currency reserves should have reached $16 bn, but the forecast was made before the fall in world oil prices.

      CESD experts have mentioned that the main reason of extraordinary declining of currency reserves in April 2015 was related to high demand for foreign currency in the first 10 days of April: “Without any justification, CBA depreciated the manat’s rate against the US dollar in the first 10 days of previous month. The manat started appreciating only in the after the 1/3 of the month. CBA uses not more psychological methods to decrease demand for foreign currencies”.
      Meanwhile, CBA administratively decreases volume of national currency in the currency market. CESD’s monitoring show that many currency exchange offices faces lack of the manat volume in last couple weeks. Although demand for the national currency is not increased, but volume of the manat is administratively controlled by CBA. Central Bank targets using such administrative methods to decrease a demand for foreign currencies.

      CBA has reported that Azerbaijan’s monetary base continues to demonstrate phenomenal decline by falling to the level of 1 December 2011. According to the official reports the monetary base amounted to 7.418 billion manat 1 May 2015 versus 8.339 billion manat by 1 April, 9.109 billion manat by 1 March, 10.55 billion manat by 1 February and 11.541 billion manat by 1 January. As a result, in April its decline made up 920.8 million manat (-11% from March) against 770.5 million manat in March (-8.5% from February), 1.441 billion manat (-13.7%) in February. In 2015 the monetary base has already reduced by 4.123 billion manat (-35.7%) and it conforms to the level of 1 December 2011 as 7.417 billion manat. The monetary base reached 11.743 billion manat (absolute record) by 1 September and 11.64 billion manat by 1 January 2014.

      CESD forecasts that demand for foreign currency will be declined in May 2015 due to gradual appreciation of the manat.




      Azerbaijan Foreign Currency Reserves

      August: 15.2 Billion USD
      January: 13.8 Billion USD
      February: 12.7 Billion USD
      March: 11.0 Billion USD
      April: 9.5 Billion USD
      May: 8.4 Billion USD

      Comment


      • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

        Originally posted by Mher View Post
        $ 1,703 billion US: Central Bank of Azerbaijan’s Monthly Intervention Cost
        Monday, May 11, 2015

        Azerbaijan’s currency reserves have been dramatically declined in the last couple of months

        The Central Bank of Azerbaijan’s (CBA) intervention cost was $ 1,073 billion US in April 2015. Bank’s total currency reserves declined to $ 8,397 billion US in April 2015 since it was $ 9.47 billion US previous month. Reminded here that CBA’s currency reserves were $11.004 billion US by 1 March, $12.68 billion US by 1 February $13.758 billion US by 1 January 2015. Currency reserves have been declined from $ 15,193 billion US in August 2014 to $ 8,397 billion US in April 2015.

        CBA’s currency reserves have been declined by $ 6,796 billion US in last 8 months. Decrease of CBA currency reserves in April 2015 totaled $1.08 billion US (-11.4%). In 2015 their decrease totals already $5.37 billion Us (-39%). In accordance with CBA forecast, by the end of 2014 currency reserves should have reached $16 bn, but the forecast was made before the fall in world oil prices.

        CESD experts have mentioned that the main reason of extraordinary declining of currency reserves in April 2015 was related to high demand for foreign currency in the first 10 days of April: “Without any justification, CBA depreciated the manat’s rate against the US dollar in the first 10 days of previous month. The manat started appreciating only in the after the 1/3 of the month. CBA uses not more psychological methods to decrease demand for foreign currencies”.
        Meanwhile, CBA administratively decreases volume of national currency in the currency market. CESD’s monitoring show that many currency exchange offices faces lack of the manat volume in last couple weeks. Although demand for the national currency is not increased, but volume of the manat is administratively controlled by CBA. Central Bank targets using such administrative methods to decrease a demand for foreign currencies.

        CBA has reported that Azerbaijan’s monetary base continues to demonstrate phenomenal decline by falling to the level of 1 December 2011. According to the official reports the monetary base amounted to 7.418 billion manat 1 May 2015 versus 8.339 billion manat by 1 April, 9.109 billion manat by 1 March, 10.55 billion manat by 1 February and 11.541 billion manat by 1 January. As a result, in April its decline made up 920.8 million manat (-11% from March) against 770.5 million manat in March (-8.5% from February), 1.441 billion manat (-13.7%) in February. In 2015 the monetary base has already reduced by 4.123 billion manat (-35.7%) and it conforms to the level of 1 December 2011 as 7.417 billion manat. The monetary base reached 11.743 billion manat (absolute record) by 1 September and 11.64 billion manat by 1 January 2014.

        CESD forecasts that demand for foreign currency will be declined in May 2015 due to gradual appreciation of the manat.




        Azerbaijan Foreign Currency Reserves

        August: 15.2 Billion USD
        January: 13.8 Billion USD
        February: 12.7 Billion USD
        March: 11.0 Billion USD
        April: 9.5 Billion USD
        May: 8.4 Billion USD
        I think journalist loose credibility when they cannot differentiate between million and billion.


        .
        Politics is not about the pursuit of morality nor what's right or wrong
        Its about self interest at personal and national level often at odds with the above.
        Great politicians pursue the National interest and small politicians personal interests

        Comment


        • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

          Originally posted by londontsi View Post
          I think journalist loose credibility when they cannot differentiate between million and billion.

          .
          what do you mean? which part are you talking about

          Comment


          • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

            Originally posted by Mher View Post
            what do you mean? which part are you talking about

            The Central Bank of Azerbaijan’s (CBA) intervention cost was $ 1,073 billion US in April 2015.
            Bank’s total currency reserves declined to $ 8,397 billion US in April 2015 since it was $ 9.47 billion US previous month.
            Reminded here that CBA’s currency reserves were $11.004 billion US by 1 March, $12.68 billion US by 1 February $13.758 billion US by 1 January 2015.
            Currency reserves have been declined from $ 15,193 billion US in August 2014 to $ 8,397 billion US in April 2015
            ....etc

            1,073 billion is trillion and 73 billion
            10.5 billion is 10.5 billion
            Politics is not about the pursuit of morality nor what's right or wrong
            Its about self interest at personal and national level often at odds with the above.
            Great politicians pursue the National interest and small politicians personal interests

            Comment


            • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

              Originally posted by londontsi View Post
              ....etc

              1,073 billion is trillion and 73 billion
              10.5 billion is 10.5 billion
              Your misreading.
              When you see an apostrophe , that's actually a decimal point .

              Comment


              • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

                Originally posted by Artashes View Post
                Your misreading.
                When you see an apostrophe , that's actually a decimal point .
                yep, the use of comma/period varies across different countries. The use is not the same everywhere as US/UK. In much of continental EU commas are used over points/periods

                Comment


                • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

                  Originally posted by Artashes View Post
                  Your misreading.
                  When you see an apostrophe , that's actually a decimal point .
                  LOL

                  When I see an apostrophe it is an apostrophe,
                  When I see a decimal point it is a decimal point ...... irrespective of what glasses I wear.
                  Last edited by londontsi; 05-12-2015, 10:29 PM.
                  Politics is not about the pursuit of morality nor what's right or wrong
                  Its about self interest at personal and national level often at odds with the above.
                  Great politicians pursue the National interest and small politicians personal interests

                  Comment


                  • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

                    Originally posted by Mher View Post
                    yep, the use of comma/period varies across different countries. The use is not the same everywhere as US/UK. In much of continental EU commas are used over points/periods
                    http://www.reddit.com/r/answers/comm...of_decimal_eg/
                    True.

                    However comma and decimal point are never used alternatively.

                    If that was the case the financial world would have collapsed years ago.

                    .
                    Politics is not about the pursuit of morality nor what's right or wrong
                    Its about self interest at personal and national level often at odds with the above.
                    Great politicians pursue the National interest and small politicians personal interests

                    Comment


                    • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

                      Azerbaijan: Falling Economy, Rising Karabakh War Risk
                      May 14, 2015 - 11:36am, by Youri Smakouz Armenia Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh EurasiaNet's Weekly Digest
                      EurasiaNet Commentary
                      Azerbaijan is a major energy exporter. It is also one of the most oil-dependent economies in Eurasia and has been hit hard by lower oil prices. If the current fiscal trends persist, regional stability is likely to come under growing threat.

                      The country’s 2015 budget, which envisaged a high level of spending on infrastructure projects, was drawn up under the assumption that the average oil price would be $90 per barrel. Now the oil price is hovering around $60 per barrel and previously envisioned levels of state spending do not seem sustainable, at least in the near term. As a result, the government must confront austerity.

                      Initially, the government insisted that the planned level of expenditure could be maintained despite the reduced oil revenue. However, oil and gas exports are simply too important for Azerbaijan: they account for 95 percent of the country’s exports and more than 70 percent of revenue. Budget cuts, then, seem unavoidable in the near future.

                      Already, the Azerbaijani government has had to react to lower energy prices. The first move came on February 21, when the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) devalued the local currency, the manat, by 33.5 percent against the US dollar and 30 percent against the euro. The regulator claimed this was necessary “in order to support diversification of Azerbaijan’s economy, strengthen its international competitiveness and export potential, as well as to provide balance of payments sustainability.”

                      The devaluation came as a shock to many Azeris. Retailers increased their prices shortly after the Bank’s move, and further price hikes are anticipated. Economists expect an increase in the cost of most food products, public transport and utilities, a development that would likely intensify discontent among the population. Several small protests have occurred in Baku and Lankaran, a city on the Caspian coast near the Iranian border.

                      The devaluation is forcing officials to revise state budget parameters. While the government is expected to maintain defense and social spending at existing levels, infrastructure expenditures may well take a hit. Private sector investments in infrastructure projects are also likely to decrease. Investors will now think twice before backing projects with unclear financial returns.

                      One of the first casualties is likely to be the Khazar Islands project, a $100 billion initiative to build 41 artificial islands in the Caspian Sea. Although the project is primarily being financed privately, it is far from completion and it will now be much harder for the developer to attract new financing.

                      Another project likely to suffer is Baku White City, an office and residential complex. Experts believe that government funding for this and similar projects will like dry up after the inaugural European Games, an Olympics-style extraveganza to be held in Baku in June.

                      In the absence of a sharp and sustained increase in the oil prices in the coming months, it is clear that the Azeri government will no longer be able to sustain a high level of economic growth. Living standards accordingly will decline.

                      Large-scale social protests are unlikely in the near future, but the recent shifts in global oil markets have highlighted a serious long-term problem for the Azeri economy – its lack of diversification and heavy dependence on energy revenue. Most experts agree that the best way Azerbaijan could address diversification challenges would be to improve its investment climate and attract foreign direct investments in sectors other than oil and gas: agriculture and food processing, alternative and renewable energy, tourism and construction offer the greatest potential.

                      The ability to achieve these targets will pose a major test for the country’s ruling elite. Pervasive corruption needs to be tamed, and the rule of law bolstered. The window of opportunity will not be open forever: the country’s oil reserves will be depleted in 15-20 years.

                      According to some estimates, Azerbaijan’s $37 billion rainy-day oil fund, SOFAZ, can help the government survive low oil prices for a year or two without serious risks to social stability. However, if the oil market does not recover within two to three years, quality-of-life standards in Azerbaijan are likely to fall sharply. In that case, the government could well have a social crisis on its hands.

                      Vladimir Putin has demonstrated that an authoritarian leader’s popularity can grow if a country goes to war against a weaker neighbor. The Crimea, given its history, means a lot to Russians, but Nagorno-Karabakh means even more to Azeris. Its loss to Armenia during the Karabakh war, fought amidst the collapse of the Soviet empire, remains a touchstone of bitterness for Azerbaijan.

                      Since a ceasefire went into effect in 1994, talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan on a permanent settlement for Karabakh have remained stalemated. Meanwhile, some of the deadliest clashes along the so-called Contact Line involving Azerbaijani and Armenian troops have occurred in recent months. The frontline remains highly militarized and there are no peacekeeping troops separating the sides. In other words, there is an increasing probability that a new “hot” phase could erupt in the near term.

                      Azerbaijan is, of course, smaller than Russia and it does not have nuclear weapons, but an attempt to take back Nagorno-Karabakh by force could be a way for Aliyev to remain in power if a deteriorating economic situation starts to threaten social and political stability.


                      Editor's note: Youri Smakouz, Associate Director, The Risk Advisory Group

                      Comment

                      Working...
                      X