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    Thread: Energy in Azerbaijan

    1. #586
      Armenian Enthusiast Shant03's Avatar
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      Vrej, I read through that entire article on Razm, some of it went over my head to be honest but from what I understand it is essentially detailing the lack of oil reserves. Anything else significant that I missed?

      It mentions something about oil being in Artsakh but i didn't fully understand that part either.

    2. #587
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      Quote Originally Posted by Shant03 View Post
      Vrej, I read through that entire article on Razm, some of it went over my head to be honest but from what I understand it is essentially detailing the lack of oil reserves. Anything else significant that I missed?

      It mentions something about oil being in Artsakh but i didn't fully understand that part either.
      - The most interesting part is the estimation of the real cost of extracted oil. I have never seen such this estimations yet. Till now I was given cost of extractions higher than what we have here, and frankly speaking I am surprised manpower (positive effect of devaluation of the manat) was such a leverage.

      - No talk of oil in Artsakh. It's just that they happen to name the would be oil fields off shore by imaginary names> So they can name one karapakh, the other Nakhitchevan, they may also name Yerevan...

      - Ineteresting too the sharing of revenues between BP/state..

    3. #588
      Registered User Azad's Avatar
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      " Moody's says Kazakhstan more resilient than Azerbaijan in adjustment to lower oil prices

      - Azerbaijan is more vulnerable to low oil price, given that its economy is more than three and a half times smaller and half as wealthy

      - Geopolitics are more of a risk in Azerbaijan due to its ongoing conflict with Armenia over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh

      https://www.moodys.com/research/Mood...wer--PR_363785

    4. #589
      Registered User Azad's Avatar
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      " 'I think something really big is brewing in oil'

      In the late fall of 2014, Pal correctly predicted that oil (CL=F) would fall to $40 a barrel. He now thinks the price could fall to $30."

      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/raoul...195744686.html


      Aliyev's reaction

      http://www.gettyimages.com/event/ex-...ture-id2812568

    5. #590
      Registered User Azad's Avatar
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      Quote Originally Posted by Azad View Post
      Trying to make sense of the Russian deal with “turkish Stream” gas pipeline and how it is going to effect the “TANAP” (azeri) pipeline being constructed.

      Info on “Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline” the azeri pipeline with 58 percent ownership.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-...n_gas_pipeline

      “The construction of Turkish Stream is set to begin in 2017, and should be completed by late 2019.” The Russian/turkish pipeline.
      https://www.rt.com/news/368953-turke...russia-stream/

      The azeri TANAP pipeline is going slow most of the construction is being done on the other end, by Greece and Albania according to this azeri site. See all the articles at the bottom of the page. It is all about Greece and Albania.
      http://www.azernews.az/oil_and_gas/105257.html

      Map of the two pipelines competing for the same markets.
      https://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-...ipe-webfig.png

      Before this Russian/turkish deal the azeris where crying and is shock few months ago.
      “Turkish Stream unlikely to join TANAP
      With [Azerbaijani state oil company] SOCAR being a major stakeholder in TANAP, notably owing 58 percent, it is highly unlikely to approve such a proposal which will undermine its own future prospects to pump more gas to Europe after fully developing the second and third phase of its Shah Deniz gas field,” Marazis told Trend by email.

      At the same time Brussels will not be enthusiastic about such a possibility given its Energy Security Strategy which prioritizes diversification of supplier countries and routes, the expert noted.

      Earlier, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu proposed to connect the Russia-developed Turkish Stream pipeline which envisages Russian gas supplies to Turkey and further to Europe bypassing Ukraine to the TANAP pipeline…


      http://en.trend.az/business/energy/2657699.html


      Than you have the shattered dreams of the shekel boys for a free ride.
      http://en.trend.az/business/energy/2681762.html

      From my conclusion it looks like the azeris got a royal turkish stick up their xxx?
      "The Azerbaijan Stream- Kyiv’s Unrealizable Dream

      A meeting of the Ukrainian-Azerbaijani group on energy cooperation was held this month, during which the diversification of routes for delivery of Azerbaijani hydrocarbons to the European and world markets was discussed. The Ukrainian authorities seem to be beginning to realize that in the near future they may completely lose the transit of Russian gas through their territory, but the idea of ensuring the loading of a gas transportation system with the help of Azerbaijan is unlikely to promise any real prospects for Kyiv.

      Leading expert of the Energy Security Fund, Igor Yushkov, says “Azerbaijani gas today has two ways into Europe: through the Balkans and through Russia. The second of these routes is complicated by the well-known transit policy of Gazprom: first to purchase gas from a third country, and then to transport it”.

      "If Azerbaijan wants to supply gas to Ukraine, then it must first sell it to Gazprom, not to mention the Russian-Ukrainian gas supply contract, which Kyiv does not want to fulfill, and which has become the subject of proceedings in Stockholm,” Yushkov adds.

      Therefore, for the Azerbaijani gas there remains only the southern route to Europe - through Turkey and Romania. In Yushkov's opinion, theoretically, Ukraine can buy gas from Azerbaijan and then drive it through Turkey and all the Balkans to feed the south-western regions of the country. However, in practice, this is impossible because Baku does not have excess gas - otherwise, these extra volumes would have been delivered to Europe long ago, since the EU leadership wants to diversify gas suppliers to its domestic market.

      At present, the construction of the transadriatic gas pipeline TAP-TANAP is under way, which will supply Azerbaijani gas to Europe, but its capacity, as Yushkov says, is only 20 billion cubic meters, half of which will go to the Turkish market, and the lion's share of the remaining gas (8 billion cubic meters) will be sent to Italy. The rest will be equally divided between Greece and Bulgaria. "All this allows us to conclude that Azerbaijan simply cannot physically extract the 8-10 billion cubic meters of gas necessary for Ukraine."

      http://georgiatoday.ge/news/6294/The...alizable-Dream


      ^^^ In response to all the obstacles the azeris still have high hopes.

      "Azerbaijan president: gas pipeline to EU will not be stopped

      “The implementation of the Southern Gas Corridor is already a reality. True, there are those who want to prevent us. It is natural. We came across these ten years ago,” said Aliyev, as reported by the Azerbaijan Press Agency on Tuesday.

      The Southern Gas Corridor is one of the world’s largest fossil fuel projects, with a projected construction cost of $46bn.

      It is opposed by environmental and human rights groups on the basis it will lock in fossil fuel dependence and its construction across Georgia, Turkey, Greece, Albania and Italy will expose communities to forced relocations and disruption.

      Last month, Azerbaijan was suspended from the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), a global watchdog that sets standards for human rights in countries where the fossil fuel industry operates. Aliyev’s autocratic government had failed to ease pressure on civil society groups, despite repeated warnings from the EITI board."

      http://www.climatechangenews.com/201...l-not-stopped/


      They are even kissing Georgian asz now

      "Azerbaijan to fully meet Georgia's demand for gas"

    6. #591
      Registered User Azad's Avatar
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      Things are looking stable for oil in staying on the lower side

      "Long crude is no longer the hot trade.

      Despite signals from OPEC that production cuts could last well into 2018 with larger production curbs than the first, Crude Oil seems to be without a bid.
      US continues with another six added in the first week of May to bring the total US rigs to 703, which is up from 316 a year ago."

      https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/techni...-May-8-TY.html


      "Iran Plans To Raise Crude Oil Production Capacity By 3 Million Bpd

      … quoting a senior official as saying that the move was aimed at boosting the Islamic Republic’s footing in OPEC and the global market.

      http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil...llion-Bpd.html

    7. #592
      Registered User Azad's Avatar
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      As we predicted shet is hitting the fan fast.

      "Under the Radar: Failure of largest lender only beginning of Azerbaijan’s worries

      IBA has entered Chapter 15 in the United States and is asking foreign investors and institutions for support as it works to manage its unwieldy bad loans, allegedly 80% of its portfolio.
      Azerbaijan’s financial sector dragging down entire government
      Azerbaijan is pinning its hopes on recent substantial natural gas finds, with an ultimate goal of supplying Europe via the Trans Anatolian (TANAP)
      Unfortunately for SOCAR, the company has also become embroiled in an ongoing corruption scandal in Malta, long a favourite money laundering destination for Azeri oligarchs and officials according to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The scandal highlights the connections between SOCAR, the Aliyev family and the threat this relationship poses to Azerbaijan’s grand ambitions."

      You can read in details the rest of azerbaijan's complete disintegration of the country.

      http://globalriskinsights.com/2017/0...aijan-worries/

    8. #593
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      Quote Originally Posted by Azad View Post
      As we predicted shet is hitting the fan fast.

      "Under the Radar: Failure of largest lender only beginning of Azerbaijan’s worries

      IBA has entered Chapter 15 in the United States and is asking foreign investors and institutions for support as it works to manage its unwieldy bad loans, allegedly 80% of its portfolio.
      Azerbaijan’s financial sector dragging down entire government
      Azerbaijan is pinning its hopes on recent substantial natural gas finds, with an ultimate goal of supplying Europe via the Trans Anatolian (TANAP)
      Unfortunately for SOCAR, the company has also become embroiled in an ongoing corruption scandal in Malta, long a favourite money laundering destination for Azeri oligarchs and officials according to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The scandal highlights the connections between SOCAR, the Aliyev family and the threat this relationship poses to Azerbaijan’s grand ambitions."

      You can read in details the rest of azerbaijan's complete disintegration of the country.

      http://globalriskinsights.com/2017/0...aijan-worries/
      Was reading this on my morning commute and could not have been more happier. I truly do hope that the leadership in Armenia sees what the result of absolute corruption is. xxxx the Azeris. We should aim to be the exact opposite of these retards.

    9. #594
      Registered User Azad's Avatar
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      "Azerbaijan gets 9.5% decline in oil production" <<< This is from one of their Gov. sites. If they are admitting on almost 10% decline, we know it is worse.

      They are doing everything to keep their population under control due to the coming hardships. It is just around the corner.

      "Azerbaijani court blocks Radio Free Europe website

      On Friday Baku's Sabail district court ruled in favour of blocking access to the website of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's (RFE/RL) Azerbaijani Service, sparking criticism at what is seen as an increasing crackdown on media freedom in the country."

      https://calvertjournal.com/news/show...europe-website


      "France is concerned by the Azerbaijani authorities’ decision to block several Internet news sites in the country.

      It calls on the Azerbaijani authorities to abide by the international commitments they freely entered into and to fully respect the freedom of information and of the press, which are fundamental to the development of civil societies and the consolidation of democratic institutions.
      France will continue to closely monitor the media situation in Azerbaijan."

      http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/cou...eedom-15-05-17

    10. #595
      Registered User Azad's Avatar
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      It was $900 million and it seams now it is $3 billion

      "International Bank of Azerbaijan Seeks U.S. Court Protection

      Despite capital infusions, bank has been hurt by steep decline in oil prices and subsequent currency fluctuations

      The International Bank of Azerbaijan, the country’s largest lender, filed for bankruptcy in New York Thursday to aid the restructuring of some $3.3 billion in debt."

      https://www.wsj.com/articles/interna...ion-1494618685

    11. #596
      Armenian Enthusiast Shant03's Avatar
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      LOL that country has become a dumpster fire nobody wants to bother dealing with

    12. #597
      Registered User Azad's Avatar
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      Quote Originally Posted by Shant03 View Post
      LOL that country has become a dumpster fire nobody wants to bother dealing with
      Few sites (including Reuters) have been stating that the azeri state oil fund SOFAZ is around $33 billion (2016) according to Shakhmar Movsumov, the fund's executive director.

      In one of the articles I posted it states ...

      "The government has even raided Sofaz, the country’s sovereign wealth fund in order to shore up IBA: Sofaz’s holdings have dropped to a mere $64 million, down from $523 million in 2014."

      http://globalriskinsights.com/2017/0...aijan-worries/

    13. #598
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      Quote Originally Posted by Azad View Post
      Few sites (including Reuters) have been stating that the azeri state oil fund SOFAZ is around $33 billion (2016) according to Shakhmar Movsumov, the fund's executive director.

      In one of the articles I posted it states ...

      "The government has even raided Sofaz, the country’s sovereign wealth fund in order to shore up IBA: Sofaz’s holdings have dropped to a mere $64 million, down from $523 million in 2014."

      http://globalriskinsights.com/2017/0...aijan-worries/
      The globalrisks article doesn't provide a citation for the 523 or 64. Proving just how powerful oil is, these retards are still allowed at the table for talks.

    14. #599
      Registered User Azad's Avatar
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      The goat fkers are not only losing their assets due to low oil prices they are taking down other countries assets with them.

      "Kazakhstan: Pension Funds Lost in Azerbaijan Venture

      Kazakhstan’s beleaguered state pensions fund has found itself the target of a fresh bout of public indignation after losing hundreds of millions in a doomed Azerbaijani investment.

      Privately run broadcaster KTK reported this week that managers at the Single Accumulated Savings Fund, or ENPF in its Russian initials, sunk around 70 billion tenge ($224 million) into the International Bank of Azerbaijan. This lender has recently cited liquidity issues as grounds for failing to respect its international liabilities and filed for bankruptcy.

      Members of parliament are livid and have accused pension fund managers of incompetence, particularly since there had previously been warnings that the Azerbaijani bank was in trouble."

      http://www.eurasianet.org/node/83606

      Let us hope we hear less sucking noises coming from the azeri/kazakh love affairs.

    15. #600
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      I find all this interesting and good news.

      Doing some research on the internet things raise more questions than answers.

      Most importantly are we confusing invested assets with cash in hand i.e. liquidity issues.

      https://www.ft.com/content/b8a71de4-...6-00144feab7de

      This article from FT. states a claim that Sofaz has a pool of investments in real estate in London, Paris, Moscow, Seoul as well as investments in equities and Gold.

      The value of these investments is 37 Billion.

      The thing is when investments are acquired or disposed of they are usually announced.
      There are global registers who also track such acquisitions and disposals.

      Although this article is dated I am still confused whether Sofaz has liquidity issues or has divested their investment AND have a liquidity crisis.

      The terms used for their NewYork bank was restructuring.
      If you are totally broke you cannot restructure but if you have assets against liabilities you need time to divest to meet obligations.

      Both scenarios are bad for Azerbaijan, however, one outcome requires more patience from us for the expected conclusion.

      .
      Politics is not about the pursuit of morality nor what's right or wrong
      Its about self interest at personal and national level often at odds with the above.
      Great politicians pursue the National interest and small politicians personal interests

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