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    Thread: Energy in Azerbaijan

    1. #61
      Registered User Mher's Avatar
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      Despite Slumping Prices, No End in Sight for U.S. Oil Production Boom

      HOUSTON — Falling oil and gasoline prices have sent oil company stocks tumbling, but oil experts say the boom in American energy production shows no signs of slowing down, keeping the market flush with crude and gasoline prices low.

      Even after a drop of as much as 25 percent in oil prices since early summer, several government and private reports say that it would take a drop of $10 to $20 a barrel more — to as low as $60 a barrel — to slow production even modestly.

      On the downside, taxes and royalties on oil will decline, potentially cutting into the finances of oil-producing states like Texas, Alaska, Oklahoma and North Dakota. And it will continue to put pressure on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut output to support prices, as well as cause economic pain to big producers like Russia, Venezuela and Iran.


      Current production levels can be sustained in the shale fields in 2015 even if the Brent global oil benchmark, which fell to just under $84 a barrel at one point this week, dropped to as low as $60 to $65, according to Rystad Energy, an international oil and gas consultancy based in Norway.
      Continue reading the main story
      Pressure on Oil Economies

      The falling price of oil creates varying degrees of financial difficulties for countries that rely heavily on its export. According to research by Deutsche Bank, the point at which their national budgets break even varies from about $125 a barrel for Iran to less than $75 for Kuwait.

      “Oil output will respond very slowly to a drop in oil prices,” Bjornar Tonhaugen, vice president for oil and gas markets at Rystad Energy, wrote in a report released this week. “Markets may even be oversupplied next year more than previously thought.”

      Slowing American oil production is like slowing a freight train moving at high speed. The current production of 8.7 million barrels a day, the highest in nearly a quarter-century, is more than a million barrels a day higher than it was only a year ago. Most companies make their investment decisions well in advance and need months to slow exploration because of contracts with service companies. And if they do decide to cut back some drilling, they will pick the least prospective fields first as they continue developing the richest prospects.

      The Energy Department this week reported that only 4 percent of shale production in North Dakota, Texas and other states needed an oil price above $80 a barrel for producers to break even on investments. One reason is that improved efficiencies in hydraulic fracturing and other modern production techniques have increased the output of each new well month after month in recent years.

      For example, the Energy Department expects that new oil production from new wells in the North Dakota Bakken shale field will increase by seven barrels a day next month over this month, and in the Texas Eagle Ford field by eight barrels a day. Put together, over a couple of months that translates into tens of thousands of new barrels every day across the country, with no increase in investment.

      Sadad Al Husseini, the former head of exploration and production at Saudi Aramco, predicted that the United States would add a million more barrels of oil in daily production over the next year.

      “What is softening prices is weaker demand because of the global economy and the growing volume of North American production,” Mr. Al Husseini said in an interview. “So will prices bottom? It depends on what comes from the U.S.”

      He added that when investors start seeing $75 to $80 oil, that will cut back some ambitions, and that could mean “a leveling off of new supplies by midyear 2015.”

      The United States has banned most oil exports for four decades, but the expanded production has slashed imports from many OPEC countries, forcing them to drop their prices in Asia. The United States is also expanding its exports of refined products like gasoline and diesel, which are allowed, and that is cutting into production from other countries.

      The Paris-based International Energy Agency, which accumulates and analyzes data for the industrialized nations, this week identified deep water offshore production, the Canadian oil sands and some of the American oil shale fields as the most susceptible to cuts in investment and production when oil prices fall. But only about 8 percent of these types of production require $80 a barrel oil to break even.

      All told, the I.E.A. said only about 2.6 million barrels out of total world production of just over 90 million barrels requires a break-even price of $80, including some fields in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria and Russia, which are high-cost fields in part because of how much the governments require producers to pay them in taxes and royalties.

      Global and American benchmark oil prices bounced back a bit on Friday, ranging between roughly $83 and $86. The American benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, fell below $80 for the first time in two years briefly Thursday morning, and some oil experts say it could break the symbolic threshold again in coming days.

      Lower oil prices mean lower prices at the pump for American consumers. The average national price for a gallon of regular gasoline on Friday was $3.14, 10 cents lower than it was a week ago and 22 cents lower than a year ago, according to the AAA motor club. That is the lowest price in more than three years.

      Roughly a third of the nation’s gas stations are selling gasoline for less than $3 a gallon. The average American family saves about $120 a year for every dime drop in the gasoline price, experts say.

      Many oil experts say that Saudi Arabia and several other OPEC countries that have shaved their prices in recent days are trying to drive down global production, and particularly American and Canadian production, to protect their market share. But with a growing population and struggling to tamp down potential domestic unrest, Saudi Arabia carries a rising social service budget that is financed almost entirely by oil money.

      Over the long term, it may need to stretch its production as much as or more than the United States.

      “For the government to balance budgets on an ongoing basis, higher oil prices are inevitably required,” Badr H. Jafar, president of Crescent Petroleum, a United Arab Emirates-based oil and gas company, said in an email exchange. “Otherwise, if oil prices continue to fall, maximizing production may be an imperative to securing required higher revenues, and that in turn might have a catastrophic effect with the creation of a major glut.”

      http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/18/bu...down.html?_r=1
      <<եթե զենք էլ չլինի' ես քարերով կկրվեմ>>

    2. #62
      Hark
      Join Date
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      Quote Originally Posted by Mher View Post
      Despite Slumping Prices, No End in Sight for U.S. Oil Production Boom

      HOUSTON � Falling oil and gasoline prices have sent oil company stocks tumbling, but oil experts say the boom in American energy production shows no signs of slowing down, keeping the market flush with crude and gasoline prices low.

      Even after a drop of as much as 25 percent in oil prices since early summer, several government and private reports say that it would take a drop of $10 to $20 a barrel more � to as low as $60 a barrel � to slow production even modestly.

      On the downside, taxes and royalties on oil will decline, potentially cutting into the finances of oil-producing states like Texas, Alaska, Oklahoma and North Dakota. And it will continue to put pressure on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut output to support prices, as well as cause economic pain to big producers like Russia, Venezuela and Iran.


      Current production levels can be sustained in the shale fields in 2015 even if the Brent global oil benchmark, which fell to just under $84 a barrel at one point this week, dropped to as low as $60 to $65, according to Rystad Energy, an international oil and gas consultancy based in Norway.
      Continue reading the main story
      Pressure on Oil Economies

      The falling price of oil creates varying degrees of financial difficulties for countries that rely heavily on its export. According to research by Deutsche Bank, the point at which their national budgets break even varies from about $125 a barrel for Iran to less than $75 for Kuwait.

      �Oil output will respond very slowly to a drop in oil prices,� Bjornar Tonhaugen, vice president for oil and gas markets at Rystad Energy, wrote in a report released this week. �Markets may even be oversupplied next year more than previously thought.�

      Slowing American oil production is like slowing a freight train moving at high speed. The current production of 8.7 million barrels a day, the highest in nearly a quarter-century, is more than a million barrels a day higher than it was only a year ago. Most companies make their investment decisions well in advance and need months to slow exploration because of contracts with service companies. And if they do decide to cut back some drilling, they will pick the least prospective fields first as they continue developing the richest prospects.

      The Energy Department this week reported that only 4 percent of shale production in North Dakota, Texas and other states needed an oil price above $80 a barrel for producers to break even on investments. One reason is that improved efficiencies in hydraulic fracturing and other modern production techniques have increased the output of each new well month after month in recent years.

      For example, the Energy Department expects that new oil production from new wells in the North Dakota Bakken shale field will increase by seven barrels a day next month over this month, and in the Texas Eagle Ford field by eight barrels a day. Put together, over a couple of months that translates into tens of thousands of new barrels every day across the country, with no increase in investment.

      Sadad Al Husseini, the former head of exploration and production at Saudi Aramco, predicted that the United States would add a million more barrels of oil in daily production over the next year.

      �What is softening prices is weaker demand because of the global economy and the growing volume of North American production,� Mr. Al Husseini said in an interview. �So will prices bottom? It depends on what comes from the U.S.�

      He added that when investors start seeing $75 to $80 oil, that will cut back some ambitions, and that could mean �a leveling off of new supplies by midyear 2015.�

      The United States has banned most oil exports for four decades, but the expanded production has slashed imports from many OPEC countries, forcing them to drop their prices in Asia. The United States is also expanding its exports of refined products like gasoline and diesel, which are allowed, and that is cutting into production from other countries.

      The Paris-based International Energy Agency, which accumulates and analyzes data for the industrialized nations, this week identified deep water offshore production, the Canadian oil sands and some of the American oil shale fields as the most susceptible to cuts in investment and production when oil prices fall. But only about 8 percent of these types of production require $80 a barrel oil to break even.

      All told, the I.E.A. said only about 2.6 million barrels out of total world production of just over 90 million barrels requires a break-even price of $80, including some fields in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria and Russia, which are high-cost fields in part because of how much the governments require producers to pay them in taxes and royalties.

      Global and American benchmark oil prices bounced back a bit on Friday, ranging between roughly $83 and $86. The American benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, fell below $80 for the first time in two years briefly Thursday morning, and some oil experts say it could break the symbolic threshold again in coming days.

      Lower oil prices mean lower prices at the pump for American consumers. The average national price for a gallon of regular gasoline on Friday was $3.14, 10 cents lower than it was a week ago and 22 cents lower than a year ago, according to the AAA motor club. That is the lowest price in more than three years.

      Roughly a third of the nation�s gas stations are selling gasoline for less than $3 a gallon. The average American family saves about $120 a year for every dime drop in the gasoline price, experts say.

      Many oil experts say that Saudi Arabia and several other OPEC countries that have shaved their prices in recent days are trying to drive down global production, and particularly American and Canadian production, to protect their market share. But with a growing population and struggling to tamp down potential domestic unrest, Saudi Arabia carries a rising social service budget that is financed almost entirely by oil money.

      Over the long term, it may need to stretch its production as much as or more than the United States.

      �For the government to balance budgets on an ongoing basis, higher oil prices are inevitably required,� Badr H. Jafar, president of Crescent Petroleum, a United Arab Emirates-based oil and gas company, said in an email exchange. �Otherwise, if oil prices continue to fall, maximizing production may be an imperative to securing required higher revenues, and that in turn might have a catastrophic effect with the creation of a major glut.�

      http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/18/bu...down.html?_r=1
      If you read the article above, you see the constant reference to "producers & investors". One sees reference to "producers" need to make a profit, and reference to what it takes to "break even".
      As I have repeatedly pointed out, money is actually only a lubricant for trade and not actually something to accumulate in the hands of the "elite".
      Therein lays the fraud.
      All wealth proceeds from the labor of the ordinary person. Virtually all scientific advancement comes from the ordinary citizen. Who was Einstien? Who was Tesla, etc?.
      The elite bought them and any other benificial thoughts to the common wheel and used those concepts for their accumulation of wealth and power to the detriment of the common.
      What is not mentioned in the above article is the switching of the purpose of the endeavor from what the world needs, to the desired accumulation & monopolization of the worlds endeavors.
      The accumulation of the ordinary persons labors into the hands of the elite, as if the elite did these labors.
      ----------- slick -----------
      A man cannot own a silo of grain, because a man cannot possibly produce a silo of grain.
      A silo of grain can only come from the labor of many.
      It does not take any longer to grow a pound of wheat today than it did 100 years ago. A pound today weighs exactly the same as a pound 100 years ago.
      Therein lays the deception of "inflation".
      Unfortunately, the vast majority of the common is as greed ridden and self centered as the elite. The foible of man. This is why the common are so easily manipulated by the bigoted.
      If you take all the wealth of the wealthy away from them and you take all the poorness of the poor from them, and you give the poorness of the poor the the wealthy, and the wealth f the wealthy to the poor, the the wealthy bemoan their poverty as the poor did, and the poor struts around as the wealthy did.
      Education of the common & understanding by the common as to their part in this fraud is what is needed.
      The bigoted few --- cannot --- operate without the common. The have nothing but manipulation.
      We are doing all the work, and we are the ones who "invent", not the bigots.
      HARK

    3. #63
      Hark
      Join Date
      Dec 2011
      Location
      Alaska USA
      Posts
      2,137

      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      Quote Originally Posted by Mher View Post
      Despite Slumping Prices, No End in Sight for U.S. Oil Production Boom

      HOUSTON � Falling oil and gasoline prices have sent oil company stocks tumbling, but oil experts say the boom in American energy production shows no signs of slowing down, keeping the market flush with crude and gasoline prices low.

      Even after a drop of as much as 25 percent in oil prices since early summer, several government and private reports say that it would take a drop of $10 to $20 a barrel more � to as low as $60 a barrel � to slow production even modestly.

      On the downside, taxes and royalties on oil will decline, potentially cutting into the finances of oil-producing states like Texas, Alaska, Oklahoma and North Dakota. And it will continue to put pressure on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut output to support prices, as well as cause economic pain to big producers like Russia, Venezuela and Iran.


      Current production levels can be sustained in the shale fields in 2015 even if the Brent global oil benchmark, which fell to just under $84 a barrel at one point this week, dropped to as low as $60 to $65, according to Rystad Energy, an international oil and gas consultancy based in Norway.
      Continue reading the main story
      Pressure on Oil Economies

      The falling price of oil creates varying degrees of financial difficulties for countries that rely heavily on its export. According to research by Deutsche Bank, the point at which their national budgets break even varies from about $125 a barrel for Iran to less than $75 for Kuwait.

      �Oil output will respond very slowly to a drop in oil prices,� Bjornar Tonhaugen, vice president for oil and gas markets at Rystad Energy, wrote in a report released this week. �Markets may even be oversupplied next year more than previously thought.�

      Slowing American oil production is like slowing a freight train moving at high speed. The current production of 8.7 million barrels a day, the highest in nearly a quarter-century, is more than a million barrels a day higher than it was only a year ago. Most companies make their investment decisions well in advance and need months to slow exploration because of contracts with service companies. And if they do decide to cut back some drilling, they will pick the least prospective fields first as they continue developing the richest prospects.

      The Energy Department this week reported that only 4 percent of shale production in North Dakota, Texas and other states needed an oil price above $80 a barrel for producers to break even on investments. One reason is that improved efficiencies in hydraulic fracturing and other modern production techniques have increased the output of each new well month after month in recent years.

      For example, the Energy Department expects that new oil production from new wells in the North Dakota Bakken shale field will increase by seven barrels a day next month over this month, and in the Texas Eagle Ford field by eight barrels a day. Put together, over a couple of months that translates into tens of thousands of new barrels every day across the country, with no increase in investment.

      Sadad Al Husseini, the former head of exploration and production at Saudi Aramco, predicted that the United States would add a million more barrels of oil in daily production over the next year.

      �What is softening prices is weaker demand because of the global economy and the growing volume of North American production,� Mr. Al Husseini said in an interview. �So will prices bottom? It depends on what comes from the U.S.�

      He added that when investors start seeing $75 to $80 oil, that will cut back some ambitions, and that could mean �a leveling off of new supplies by midyear 2015.�

      The United States has banned most oil exports for four decades, but the expanded production has slashed imports from many OPEC countries, forcing them to drop their prices in Asia. The United States is also expanding its exports of refined products like gasoline and diesel, which are allowed, and that is cutting into production from other countries.

      The Paris-based International Energy Agency, which accumulates and analyzes data for the industrialized nations, this week identified deep water offshore production, the Canadian oil sands and some of the American oil shale fields as the most susceptible to cuts in investment and production when oil prices fall. But only about 8 percent of these types of production require $80 a barrel oil to break even.

      All told, the I.E.A. said only about 2.6 million barrels out of total world production of just over 90 million barrels requires a break-even price of $80, including some fields in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria and Russia, which are high-cost fields in part because of how much the governments require producers to pay them in taxes and royalties.

      Global and American benchmark oil prices bounced back a bit on Friday, ranging between roughly $83 and $86. The American benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, fell below $80 for the first time in two years briefly Thursday morning, and some oil experts say it could break the symbolic threshold again in coming days.

      Lower oil prices mean lower prices at the pump for American consumers. The average national price for a gallon of regular gasoline on Friday was $3.14, 10 cents lower than it was a week ago and 22 cents lower than a year ago, according to the AAA motor club. That is the lowest price in more than three years.

      Roughly a third of the nation�s gas stations are selling gasoline for less than $3 a gallon. The average American family saves about $120 a year for every dime drop in the gasoline price, experts say.

      Many oil experts say that Saudi Arabia and several other OPEC countries that have shaved their prices in recent days are trying to drive down global production, and particularly American and Canadian production, to protect their market share. But with a growing population and struggling to tamp down potential domestic unrest, Saudi Arabia carries a rising social service budget that is financed almost entirely by oil money.

      Over the long term, it may need to stretch its production as much as or more than the United States.

      �For the government to balance budgets on an ongoing basis, higher oil prices are inevitably required,� Badr H. Jafar, president of Crescent Petroleum, a United Arab Emirates-based oil and gas company, said in an email exchange. �Otherwise, if oil prices continue to fall, maximizing production may be an imperative to securing required higher revenues, and that in turn might have a catastrophic effect with the creation of a major glut.�

      http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/18/bu...down.html?_r=1
      Quote Originally Posted by Artashes View Post
      If you read the article above, you see the constant reference to "producers & investors". One sees reference to "producers" need to make a profit, and reference to what it takes to "break even".
      As I have repeatedly pointed out, money is actually only a lubricant for trade and not actually something to accumulate in the hands of the "elite".
      Therein lays the fraud.
      All wealth proceeds from the labor of the ordinary person. Virtually all scientific advancement comes from the ordinary citizen. Who was Einstien? Who was Tesla, etc?.
      The elite bought them and any other benificial thoughts to the common wheel and used those concepts for their accumulation of wealth and power to the detriment of the common.
      What is not mentioned in the above article is the switching of the purpose of the endeavor from what the world needs, to the desired accumulation & monopolization of the worlds endeavors.
      The accumulation of the ordinary persons labors into the hands of the elite, as if the elite did these labors.
      ----------- slick -----------
      A man cannot own a silo of grain, because a man cannot possibly produce a silo of grain.
      A silo of grain can only come from the labor of many.
      It does not take any longer to grow a pound of wheat today than it did 100 years ago. A pound today weighs exactly the same as a pound 100 years ago.
      Therein lays the deception of "inflation".
      Unfortunately, the vast majority of the common is as greed ridden and self centered as the elite. The foible of man. This is why the common are so easily manipulated by the bigoted.
      If you take all the wealth of the wealthy away from them and you take all the poorness of the poor from them, and you give the poorness of the poor the the wealthy, and the wealth f the wealthy to the poor, the the wealthy bemoan their poverty as the poor did, and the poor struts around as the wealthy did.
      Education of the common & understanding by the common as to their part in this fraud is what is needed.
      The bigoted few --- cannot --- operate without the common. The have nothing but manipulation.
      We are doing all the work, and we are the ones who "invent", not the bigots.
      I am not saying the article Mher posted isn't relevant, nor am I saying the article is inaccurate.
      The fraud I speak of is pervasive to the point that we cannot perceive it.
      The entire monetary system is fraudulent from the crown of the head to the sole of the foot.
      The producers spoken of produce nothing. All production comes from the labor of the common. All technology comes from the common educated who vie for the "reward" from the manipulator(s).
      Because the elite has gathered the wealth of the many into their hand, they set to task the common for their benefit!!!
      The article leads one to believe that the manipulator actually produces something, when in fact the labor of the many actually --- produces ---, and the "producer" only manipulates those who produce.
      The article further gives one to believe the "investor" actually investes, when in fact the common via their labor is the real investor, but the real investor (those who do the work) have almost no vested interest and go un acknowledged.
      This is the manipulation of "money".
      The sht is only paper & can actually accomplish nothing. (Only the labor of the many) accomplishes.
      Non of that is spoken of or even perceived.
      The entire system is fraud and is meant and utilized to primarily benefit the manipulator(s).
      No wonder even now in 20014 the rich get richer & the poor & overworked increase. It's by design!!!
      Same ol same ol.
      HARK

    4. #64
      Hark
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      A man is given money & he pursues a task.
      Can a man pursue a task without being given or promised money?
      One of the most difficult people's to in snare by the manipulator is the village farmer. Therefore it is important to keep the small village farmer poor and stressed out. In that way the little man is more susceptible to manipulation.
      HARK

    5. #65
      Hark
      Join Date
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      One of the Armenian people's strongest assets was our independent ability to sustain ourselves.
      We did not need the others, only our own industry and our commerce between ourselves.
      That is why both Rome & Persia attacked us.
      We were independently self sustaining.
      Our genetic selves were set long (very long) before the Romans (not set) or the Persians (not set) were.
      That is why Haig (Hayk or Haik) so easily moved back to his original land.
      From the Mediterranean sea, to the black sea, to the Caspian sea, to deep within what is now Iran, to deep within what is now Georgia, we spoke a common intelligible language and had a common genetic heritage.
      The trade we had with others , although benificial to us, was not mandatory or criticle to our survival.
      It was for them.
      We as a people's, were extremely prosperous by our industrious and inter communal behavior.
      Bellus needed Hayk, Haig did not need Bel.
      HARK

    6. #66
      Registered User
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      Total announces challenges of working on Caspian Sea
      23 NOVEMBER 2014,


      By Emil Ismayilov - Trend:

      Lack of offshore drilling rigs creates difficulties for work on the Caspian sea, Eric Meyer, Total's planning development manager, said Nov.21 at the Oil and Gas Week 2014 conference in Baku.

      He said that currently Total, which is the operator of the development project of the Absheron Azerbaijani offshore gas condensate field, considers various options for dealing with the lack of the rig.

      Another problem of work on the Caspian Sea is that the large vessels have difficulty entering its waters and they need to pass the Volga-Don canal, Meyer said.

      All these facts limit the possibilities of participation of more contractors on the market, which ultimately affects the cost of the projects, in particular the ones realized with participation of Total, said Meyer.

      Work on the construction of the first new generation drilling rig for the needs of SOCAR (State Oil Company of Azerbaijan) was started in 2013. The new rig will be designed for drilling wells at depths up to 8,000 metres and at a water depth of 1,000 metres. The rig construction is planned for 2016.

      The cost of a new generation rig construction project in Azerbaijan is $1.116.7 million. The operator of the drilling rig will be the Caspian Drilling Company (CDC) where a 92.44 per cent share is owned by SOCAR. Singapore firm Keppel FELS Limited is chosen as the plant construction contractor. In June 2013, CDC signed an agreement with this company for the construction work.

      The rig will be used for drilling on prospective structures and fields in Azerbaijan, such as the Umid field and the promising structures Babek, Karabakh, Ashrafi and others.

      Azerbaijan must build four new floating drilling rigs taking into account the implementation of big projects in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea.

    7. #67
      Registered User Mher's Avatar
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      IMF warns Azerbaijan on oil dependence, business climate

      * IMF says efforts to reduce oil dependence elusive
      * Urges improvement in business climate, tackle corruption
      * Predicts 4 pct growth in 2014, 3.5 pct in 2015

      By Margarita Antidze

      TBILISI, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Progress has so far been "elusive" for Azerbaijan in its efforts to diversify the economy away from a dependence on oil and gas, and it must press a fight against corruption to improve the business climate, the International Monetary Fund said.

      Former Soviet Azerbaijan, a mainly Muslim country between Russia and Iran, has tried to reduce its dependence on energy as oil production begins to plateau, using fuel revenues to spur other sectors of the economy, such as industry and agriculture.

      But foreign investment has flagged, with corruption cited as one of the biggest hurdles to doing business in Azerbaijan.

      "The top priority for Azerbaijan is to reduce the heavy dependence on the oil and gas sectors by pursuing decisively the government's medium term fiscal consolidation strategy," the IMF's mission chief for Azerbaijan, Raja Almarzoqi, said in an emailed response to questions from Reuters.

      "The vision '2020: Looking to the Future' envisages a more diversified economy but progress is still elusive, partly on account of delays in much needed reforms in the business climate."

      Almarzoqi said Azerbaijan, which ranks 80th in the World Bank's ease of doing business survey, should reduce trade barriers and press anti-corruption programmes.

      Azerbaijan, which has been courted by the West as an alternative to Russia as an energy supplier, saw a net inflow of foreign direct investment of $2.6 billion last year, down on the previous three years, according to the World Bank.

      The IMF forecasts 4 percent economic growth in Azerbaijan this year and 3.5 percent in 2015, down from 5.8 percent in 2013, driven by a decline in oil output and a slowdown in non-oil growth of 7.5 percent in 2014 and 6.0 percent next year.

      Economic growth has slowed dramatically with oil production beginning to plateau since the oil-fuelled boom of 2003-2007, when the economy expanded by an average 21 percent per year.

      Almarzoqi said it had been resilient to any impact from the Ukraine crisis but warned it was threatened by lower oil prices, which have fallen to just under $80 a barrel. Azerbaijan's budget for 2015 is based on a price of $90 a barrel.

      "A sustained and sharp decline in the oil price ... could impact the non-oil GDP growth given the limited space to conduct countercyclical fiscal policy," Almarzoqi said, responding to questions from Washington. (Additional reporting by Nailia Bagirova; Writing by Margarita Antidze; Editing by Elizabeth Piper and Andrew Heavens)

      http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0TA2UZ20141121
      <<եթե զենք էլ չլինի' ես քարերով կկրվեմ>>

    8. #68
      Registered User Mher's Avatar
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      Oil prices crash below $70

      Oil prices came crashing down Thursday to trade below $70 per barrel after OPEC announced it was leaving oil production levels unchanged.

      WTI crude trading in the U.S. fell by roughly 7% to just below $69 -- a level not seen since May 2010.

      In Europe, Brent crude prices also fell by about 7% to trade just below $73.

      Many had expected OPEC to agree on a cut to oil production in a bid to boost prices.

      But the organization of major oil producing nations refused to budge after six hours of negotiations. Specifically, Saudia Arabia, which has the most clout among the OPEC members, wanted production levels to stay put.

      This lack of action is bad news for certain oil-producing countries like Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela, which depend on prices of at least $90 a barrel to meet their economic targets.

      Lower oil prices could also halt the U.S. shale oil boom, which depends on higher prices.


      Meanwhile, some OPEC members including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates can afford to be less concerned about falling prices because they have built up a deep financial cushion of $2.5 trillion dollars in combined savings.

      "The Gulf authorities may see a period of lower oil prices as working in their favor over the longer-term, particularly if it squeezes the shale industry in the U.S.," said Jason Tuvey, a Middle East economist at Capital Economics.

      Shares in major oil companies, including BP (BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB), were dropping on the London stock exchange after the OPEC decision was released.

      Stock markets in the U.S. were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

      http://money.cnn.com/2014/11/27/inve...tml?hpt=hp_bn1
      <<եթե զենք էլ չլինի' ես քարերով կկրվեմ>>

    9. #69
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      Ադրբեջանի խորհրդարանը հաստատել է 2015թ. բյուջեն՝ նավթի գինը հաշվարկելով 90 դոլարով
      Lragir.am
      Քաղաքականություն - 29 Նոյեմբերի 2014,



      Ադրբեջանի խորհրդարանը հերթական նիստի ժամանակ հաստատել է 2015 թվականի պետբյուջեն, տեղեկացնում են ադրբեջանական լրատվամիջոցները:

      Բյուջեի եկամտային մասը կազմելու է 19.438 միլիարդ մանաթ (24.7 միլիարդ դոլար), իսկ ծախսային հատվածը՝ 21.1 միլիարդ մանաթ (26.9 միլիարդ դոլար): 2014 թ. համեմատ պետբյուջեն աճելու է 5.7%-ով: Պետբյուջեի դեֆիցիտը կազմելու է 2.2 միլիարդ դոլար:

      Նախատեսվում է, որ բյուջետային եկամուտների կեսը՝ ավելի քան 13 միլիարդ դոլար, պետք է ստացվի նավթի վաճառքից, 9 միլիարդ դոլարը՝ հարկերից, 2 միլիարդը՝ մաքսատուրքերից:

      Հետաքրքիր է, որ Ադրբեջանի բյուջեում մեկ բարել նավթի գինը հաշվարկվել է 90 դոլարով:

      Հունիս ամսից սկսած Brent նավթի գինը նվազել է ավելի քան 30%-ով՝ ուրբաթօրյա առք ու վաճառքից հետո կազմելով 70.15 դոլար մեկ բարելի դիմաց: Եթե 2015 թ. նավթի միջին գինը պահպանվի 70 դոլարի սահմանում, ապա ադրբեջանական բյուջեն չի ստանա մոտ 2.3 միլիարդ դոլար:

      - See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/arm/0/pol....2GJgsgHR.dpuf

    10. #70
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      Propaganda for the day:



      Baku, Azerbaijan, Dec. 2


      Azerbaijan’s economy to steadily grow with oil price at $60 per barrel, Aliyev says

      Trend:

      The world oil price fall will indeed have a negative impact on Azerbaijan’s plans, the country's President Ilham Aliyev said in an interview with Russia-24 TV channel of All-Russia State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company.

      President Aliyev said Azerbaijani government has worked out various scenarios, so the country's economy will steadily grow even at the price of $60 per oil barrel. He did add that the drop in oil price will have a certain influence.

      "Of course, these factors will have certain, rather than important, influence,” the president said. “The only negative thing I see is that what we have planned to do in one year we will do within two years. We will just cut budget spending in the non-priority areas, infrastructure projects. It is good that we already implemented these projects in the previous years."

      President Aliyev said that today, the country mainly focuses on the development of the non-oil sector.

      "The country expects a three percent growth this year,” the president said. “But when we always calculate GDP, we mainly pay attention to the non-oil sector. And the situation is better - we expect the growth rate of 6-7 percent there this year. It was ten percent in 2013."

      The president said the country expects the growth of 6-10 percent in the non-oil sector of the economy in 2015.

      “Today, the oil sector comprises about 45 percent of Azerbaijan's GDP, which is less than a half,” he said. “Azerbaijan will strengthen these trends in 2015.”

      "Ideally, of course, we will strive for oil revenues to hit one-third of the country’s GDP,” the president said. “Then we will consider our diversification policy as successful. The country is on this way, because when we started these programs, the oil factor was almost 80 percent of GDP. At present, it is 45 percent."

      Ilham Aliyev said that last year $28 billion was invested in the Azerbaijani economy, some 70 percent of them being the domestic investments.

      The president added that Azerbaijan began to diversify investments a few years ago, and their geography covers Asia, Europe, Russia and the region.

      “As for Russia, we've made investments in the banking sector, acquired VTB Bank’s shares, as well as a real estate and production,” he said.

      “For us, the Russian market is promising, and we will continue to actively invest in it, no matter what the situation is, despite the so-called sanctions,” he said. "Because, first of all, this all is temporary, and, secondly, we need to work to strengthen relations. After all, the investments are not just diversification of own assets, it is also a demonstration of relations and level of cooperation,” the president added.

      President Aliyev went on to add that no country will invest state funds where there is no stability and good relations.

      “Therefore, for us Russia is a friend, partner, and the investments in Russia will continue. We also, of course, would like to see more investments from Russia to Azerbaijan,” Ilham Aliyev said.

      He added that Azerbaijan and Russia have traditional areas of cooperation, which include the power industry, and oil and gas sector.

      President Aliyev noted that there is a good potential and an experience of cooperation in the power industry and transportation sector.

      “Russia and Azerbaijan are interested in the North-South transport corridor to start functioning more actively,” the Azerbaijani president said. “On our part, we are creating the necessary infrastructure – these are the sea ports, the reconstruction of a railway and a highway. It is the same on the Russian side.”

      The president further said there is, of course, a good potential for cooperation in selling the Azerbaijani agricultural products to the Russian markets.

      “We are developing the export potential,” President Aliyev said. “In fact, it was a strategic line of our government, but given the current situation and needs for our products on the Russian market, we purposefully began to increase exactly that assortment which Russian consumers need.”

      He said there are good prospects in the tourism sector.

      “We are seeing an increasing number of tourists from Russia, who come to Azerbaijan,” President Aliyev said.
      http://en.trend.az/business/economy/2339432.html
      Armenian colony of Glendale will conquer all of California!

    11. #71
      Registered User Mher's Avatar
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      Quote Originally Posted by Chubs View Post
      Ya man, I don't even bother reading their news anymore. It's like the news sources exist in delusion opposite world

      The claim that oil is only 45% of GDP is nonsense. Because the other 55% is largely derived from public spending, which is of course mainly (74%) fueled by that 45% of oil money, or previous oil money that has been put in the SOFAZ (state oil fund of azerbaijan) fund. Once the SOFAZ fund is empty, which will be in 2 or 3 years, that 55% will be almost entirely dependent on that 45% and they will each decrease in dollar amount simultaneously . But irregardless, 74% of the current state budget comes from oil and that is the number that matters.

      Also, lol if you will still grow at $60/barrel, please pass a budget for less that $90/barrel. At least Russia had the guts to update theirs to $80/barrel, and even prepare for $60. I suppose he doesn't because he knows if he does the people will lose it.

      "We will just cut budget spending in the non-priority areas, infrastructure projects. "
      lol only non important things like infrastructure. But of course the wh-rehouses, casinos, idiotic unfeasible man made island with d-ck in the sky skyscraper, and 500 hideous buildings named after Heydar Aliyev will continue unhindered. We can't touch those!

      btw, i only found this google feature a few months ago, the only way to get real news on Azerbaijan
      https://www.google.com/search?q=arme...ldbulletin.net
      <<եթե զենք էլ չլինի' ես քարերով կկրվեմ>>

    12. #72
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      Quote Originally Posted by Vrej1915 View Post
      Եթե 2015 թ. նավթի միջին գինը պահպանվի 70 դոլարի սահմանում, ապա ադրբեջանական բյուջեն չի ստանա մոտ 2.3 միլիարդ դոլար:
      I wonder how they got this number. Is this based on the Azeri predictions? And does it include changes in funds borrowed from reserve funds depending on price?
      <<եթե զենք էլ չլինի' ես քարերով կկրվեմ>>

    13. #73
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      Quote Originally Posted by Mher View Post
      Ya man, I don't even bother reading their news anymore. It's like the news sources exist in delusion opposite world

      The claim that oil is only 45% of GDP is nonsense. Because the other 55% is largely derived from public spending, which is of course mainly (74%) fueled by that 45% of oil money, or previous oil money that has been put in the SOFAZ (state oil fund of azerbaijan) fund. Once the SOFAZ fund is empty, which will be in 2 or 3 years, that 55% will be almost entirely dependent on that 45% and they will each decrease in dollar amount simultaneously . But irregardless, 74% of the current state budget comes from oil and that is the number that matters.

      Also, lol if you will still grow at $60/barrel, please pass a budget for less that $90/barrel. At least Russia had the guts to update theirs to $80/barrel, and even prepare for $60. I suppose he doesn't because he knows if he does the people will lose it.

      "We will just cut budget spending in the non-priority areas, infrastructure projects. "
      lol only non important things like infrastructure. But of course the wh-rehouses, casinos, idiotic unfeasible man made island with d-ck in the sky skyscraper, and 500 hideous buildings named after Heydar Aliyev will continue unhindered. We can't touch those!

      btw, i only found this google feature a few months ago, the only way to get real news on Azerbaijan
      https://www.google.com/search?q=arme...ldbulletin.net
      Excluding tags when searching, nice. These people, are ridiculous. My question is about the fund, do you really think OPEC will keep the prices low this long? That doesnt seem good for Armenia, its obviously bad for Azerbaijan and Russia...

      Georgia is getting hit pretty hard by this so early on too.
      Armenian colony of Glendale will conquer all of California!

    14. #74
      Registered User Mher's Avatar
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      Quote Originally Posted by Chubs View Post
      Excluding tags when searching, nice. These people, are ridiculous. My question is about the fund, do you really think OPEC will keep the prices low this long? That doesnt seem good for Armenia, its obviously bad for Azerbaijan and Russia...

      Georgia is getting hit pretty hard by this so early on too.
      This article does a good job of explaining the situation
      http://www.cnbc.com/id/102241579
      The summary of it all is: supply>>demand

      the world produces a lot more oil that it needs now, and therefore price drops
      The thing about OPEC is that it's not as dominant as it was 40 years ago when it controlled a majority of the market. New technology is making it possible to get oil that was previously not profitable to get. And this technology is bound to only improve and make extraction cheaper in other places. Also the traditional locations for supply are going to come back. Iraq supply is going to double by 2020 (+3mill/day). Kurdistan will start increasing. Iran's sanctions will eventually be lifted and it'll go back to it's pre-sanction levels (+1.5mill/day). Somehow, even at these prices, production in America is expected to increase next year(.5mill/day).

      Also the reason they didn't lower production is this:
      (1)Most of them wanted the production lowered, but they didn't want to be the one to lower it. Also their market share has decreased, they're not as important anymore, so they can't control the price like they once could. So if they think lowering not going to do much, they need to produce more just to maintain their market share. Because if not:
      lower price + lower production= 2X pain
      (2) Saudi Arabia didn't want to lower it because thanks to their massive reserve fund and cheap extraction cost, they thought they could ride out the prices and collapse the US fracking market which require higher prices. But now their prediction is not looking all that good.

      So I think these prices are here to stay.

      and I think many of this corrupt backward governments will be in serious trouble. First up Venezuela, then Iran. Azerbaijan wouldn't be far behind.

      I think it's a gift from above for Armenia. Armenia might suffer slightly, but Azerbaijan will be crushed. The indirect fractional damage to Armenia through the damage to Russia will not be much compared to the damage coming to Azerbaijan. Armenia might lose 2% GDP due to decrease in remittance, but they will lose billions upon billions of revenue. Armenians have suffered much much worse for 24 years, and a relatively small bump won't be the straw that broke the camels back. As poor as the situation in Armenia is, people to a certain extend understand that as much as the system hurts them, many of their problems are because of their geopolitcal situation. However, Azeri's have put up with a lot of bs because they were getting a few trickles of the oil rain. They knew how great their country should be doing relative to its natural blessings and geography. I don't know how long the people will be willing to keep up with the nonsense once their standards of living starts deteriorating.

      Also, you can't expect to grow as a nation when you rank amongst the worlds worst in dependence on remittance. One way or another, our economy should get off that crutch . Similarly you can't exist as a country with your trade becoming overly reliant on one trade partner. That's a recipe for disaster. And Armenia cannot develop as a nation unless the Karabakh situation is resolved once and for all. You cannot exist as a nation with constant existential threats. And Armenia can't change it's position as Russia's subject with no leverage or independence in foreign policy or economy without not being inferior to Azerbaijan and in need of Russian aid.

      So I rather Armenia suffer slightly if it means that cancer to the east will be gone and Armenia can begin to prosper instead of worrying about its survival. A lot of what I thought would happen at the start of this thread in 2015-2025 in Azerbaijan through production decline may happen in the next year because of prices. The problem is, if Aliyev gets desperate, war could be his option to extend his rule. I hope we are properly prepared to deter this from happening, or shutting it down quickly once it does happen. My vision for Azerbaijan: collapsed, nonexistent government libya style, minorities declaring and fighting for independence, salafi extremists declaring holy war on shias, and Armenia expanding, maybe even to russia.
      Last edited by Mher; 12-06-2014 at 01:03 AM.
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    15. #75
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      Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      .

      Although the conspiracy theory dwells on oil prices being manipulated to hurt Russia in reality the reasons are more complex than that.

      Like any commodity price, the pressure on energy price comes from supply and demand.

      Presently the demand is not the culprit but supply is.
      The Saudis with a few of their low extraction cost friends are keeping supply plentiful in order to keep prices low.
      As far as the Saudis are concerned their target is not Russia but US and Canada.

      The Saudi see a great threat in their energy dominance from fracking, oil shale and tar sand exploitation.

      These processes are viable when energy prices are high due to their high extraction costs.
      Effectively what the Saudis are trying to do is to destroy these industries by making them not viable.

      How long this may carry on?
      The answer is simple.
      Keep pumping until their competitions head separate.
      They are experts at it.

      .
      Politics is not about the pursuit of morality nor what's right or wrong
      Its about self interest at personal and national level often at odds with the above.
      Great politicians pursue the National interest and small politicians personal interests

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