The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

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Russia rebuffs U.S. call to rethink $1bln Venezuela arms deal

RYAZAN REGION, July 26 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's defense minister ruled out Wednesday reconsidering a $1 billion contracts on supplies of military planes and helicopters to Venezuela. Tom Casey, a deputy spokesman for the U.S. State Department, said Tuesday that President George Bush's administration wanted Russia to review the deals. He said the weapons purchases Venezuela planned exceeded the country's demands and did not contribute to regional stability.

But Sergei Ivanov, who is also a deputy prime minister of Russia, said, "Reviewing the contract is absolutely out of the question. In my opinion, the 24 planes and the number of helicopters recorded in the contract are not excessive for the defense of a small country such as Venezuela." "We will honor the contract," Ivanov said, adding that Venezuela had no restrictions on arms supplies. The South American country's outspoken president, Hugo Chavez, is touring defense-industry plants as part of a three-day visit to Russia.

The Foreign Ministry's official spokesman also said Wednesday Russian arms deliveries to Venezuela fully corresponded to the norms of international and Russian law. Russia has supplied Venezuela with Kalashnikov assault rifles in addition to the billion-dollar combat aircraft deal. Mikhail Kamynin said, "Military-technical cooperation with Venezuela, as well as with other countries, is carried out by Russia in full accordance with the norms of international law as well as Russian legislation."

Link: http://en.rian.ru/world/20060726/51864682.html

Russia plans to expand presence on Venezuelan arms market

MOSCOW, June 13 (RIA Novosti) - Russia is planning to increase sales of military hardware in Venezuela by offering the Latin American country a wide variety of advanced weaponry, the state-controlled arms exporter said Tuesday. Rosoboronexport said it would focus on modern aircraft, including Su-27SK Flanker and Su-30MK fighters and the Mi-28N Night Hunter attack helicopter, as well as small arms, at the Expo Ejercito 2006 arms show on June 13-18 in the Venezuelan capital, Caracas. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said earlier this year that his country could purchase Sukhoi aircraft from Russia to replace its contingent of U.S. F-16 multi-role fighters after Washington imposed an embargo arms sales to the country.

Military-technical cooperation between Moscow and Caracas has been on the rise since Rosoboronexport and the Venezuelan government signed contracts on arms supplies in 2005. Russia delivered three out of 15 Mi-17 V5 Hip-H multipurpose helicopters to Venezuela in March 2006 and supplied the country with the first 30,000 of 100,000 AK-103 assault rifles under a $54 million contract in early June. "The talks during the exhibition will lead to contracts on procuring Russian-made weaponry and military equipment and their integration into systems of national and collective security in the region," Rosoboronexport said. The Russian arms export monopolist will also present at the show high-tech civilian equipment developed under conversion programs at defense-industry enterprises.

Link: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20060613/49402868.html

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russia and Central Asian Allies Conduct War Games in Response to US Threats

Barely acknowledged by the Western media, military exercises organized by Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan under the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, (CSTO) were launched on the 24th of August. These war games, officially tagged as part of a counter terrorism program, are in direct response to US military threats in the region including the planned attacks against Iran.

The Rubezh-2006 exercise, is scheduled to take place from August 24-29 near the Kazak port city of Aktau:

"It will be the first joint military exercise undertaken by CSTO countries, and will involve 2,500 members drawn from various armed services of member states, with Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan the principal participants. Uzbekistan, which has recently rejoined the CSTO, will send observers, while the two other pact members, Belarus and Armenia, will not be taking part .( IPWR News Briefing Central Asia)

Press reports from the region describe these war games as a response to US military presence and ambitions in Central Asia:

"The growing militarisation is connected with mutual mistrust among countries in the region, say analysts. Iranian media have speculated that the United States is using Azerbaijan to create a military counterweight to Iran on the Caspian. It is possible that the exercise conducted by the CSTO – in which Russia is dominant – represents a response to concerns about United States involvement in developing Kazakstan’s navy. Observers say Russia is leaning more and more towards the Iranian view that countries from outside should be banned from having armed forces in the Caspian Sea."

Experts say the US is trying to step up the pressure on Iran, as well as to defend its own investments in Azerbaijan and Kazakstan. It is also trying to guarantee the security of the strategically vital Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.

A military presence on the Caspian would give the United States an opportunity to at least partially offset its weakening influence in Central Asia, as seen in the closure of its airbase in Uzbekistan, the increased rent it is having to pay for the Manas base in Kyrgyzstan, and the diplomatic scandal that resulted in the expulsion of two Americans from Kyrgyzstan. According to analysts, genuine security in the region can be achieved only if the military interests of all five Caspian countries are coordinated. At an international conference in Astrakhan in July 2005, Russia proposed the formation of a Caspian naval coordination group, but to date the initiative has not had much of a response.(Ibid)

Iran War Games coincide with those organized by the CSTO

The entire region seems to be on a war footing. These CSTO war games should be seen in relation to those launched barely a week earlier by Iran, in response to continued US military threats. These war games coincide with the showdown at the UN Security Council and the negotiations between permanent members regarding a Security Council resolution pertaining to Iran's nuclear program. "They are taking place within the window of time that has been predicted by analysts for the initiation of an American or an American-led attack against Iran" (see Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya, Global Research, 21 August 2006):

"War games and military exercises are now well underway within Iran and its territory."

The Iranian Armed Forces—the Regular Armed Forces and the Revolutionary Guards Corps—began the first stage of massive nationwide war games along border areas of the province of Sistan and Baluchistan1 in the southeast of Iran bordering the Gulf of Oman, Pakistan, and NATO garrisoned Afghanistan to the east on Saturday, August 19, 2006. These war games that are underway are to unfold and intensify over a five week period and possibly even last longer, meaning they will continue till the end of September and possibly overlap into October, 2006". (Ibid, emphasis added)

While Iran is not a member of the CSTO, it has observer status in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), of which China is a member. The SCO has a close relationship to the CSTO. The structure of military alliances is crucial. In case of an attack on Iran, Russia and its CSTO allies will not remain neutral. In April, Iran was invited to become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

Sofar no concrete timetable for Iran's accession to the SCO has been set. This enlargement of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which also includes observer status for India, Pakistan and Mongolia counters US military and strategic objectives in the broader region. Moreover, China and Russia, which are partners in the SCO also have a longstanding bilateral military cooperation agreement. In August 2005, China and Russia conducted joint militart exercises. The conduct of the CSTO war games must be seen as a signal to Washington that an attack on Iran could lead to a much broader military conflict in which Russia and the member states of the CSTO could potentially be involved, siding with Iran and Syria.

Also of significance is the structure of bilateral military cooperation agreements. Russia and China are the main suppliers of advanced weapons systems of Iran and Syria. Russia is contemplating the installation of a Navy base in Syria on the eastern Mediterranean coastline. In turn, the US and Israel have military cooperation agreements with Azerbaijan and Georgia.

China War Games

In recent developments, China and Kazakhstan have initiated war games (August 24, 2006) under the auspices of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). These war games are being held concurrently with those conducted under the CSTO, which are also being held in Kazakhstan.

India-Russia military Cooperation

India and Russia have signed on August 20th, a farreaching military cooperation agreement. Although not officially directed against the US, the purpose of this agreement is understood. The two countries have "agreed to focus on joint war games in services-to-services interaction, joint development of new weapons systems and training of Indian military personnel", (Press Trust of India, 21 August 2006).

Link: http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t icleId=3056

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Russia Launches Massive Air Force Exercise

The Russian military on Tuesday launched a massive exercise that will involve dozens of long-range bombers test-firing cruise missiles, the Associated Press news agency reported quoting the nation’s air force chief. The maneuvers will involve over 50 Tu-160, Tu-95 and Tu-22M aircraft flying missions over the Arctic, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and the Black and Caspian Seas, Gen. Vladimir Mikhailov said, according to the Interfax and ITAR-Tass news agencies. He said it will be the largest exercise involving Russian long-range bombers in years, the agencies reported.

A flow of petrodollars has allowed the Russian government to steadily increase military budget in recent years, a sharp contrast with dire funding shortages after the 1991 Soviet collapse. Russian military exercises have grown in scope and become more regular.

Link: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2006/09/27/airforce.shtml

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Jane's: Russian intelligence indirectly helped Hezbollah

During military operation of Israel in the South Lebanon which proceeded from July 12 till August 14 this year, Hezbollah received intelligence data from the radio interception points that are served by the joint Russian-Syrian personnel, Israeli daily Ha’aretz writes, referring to a report by the Jane's Defense Weekly. According to the magazine, participation of the Russian side in transfer of the intelligence information to Hezbollah was indirect. The data received by secret services of Russia, first were transferred to Syria, as there is an agreement signed between Moscow and Damascus on cooperation of intelligences services and exchange of mutually interesting information.

Besides it is marked that the Lebanese insurgents received the information on the Israeli troops from the surveillance centre, located in the Syrian part of the Golan heights and jointly supervised by the Syrian intelligence and Iranian experts. Unlike secret services of Russia with which the Syrian side does cooperate for a long time, arrangement with Iran has been reached only in the past year, adds Ha’aretz. Detailed information on the Russian secret services' ties with the Hezbollah was first published by AIA already in May 2005. Besides that, in Luly 2006, AIA prepared a broad analysis on the Russian-Syrian strategic cooperation, in the context of the Lebanon crisis.

Source: http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=1083

Moscow Arms Assad with a Top-Flight Surface Missile

Two generals were in Moscow on the same day, September 26: the head of Israel’s National Security Council Maj.-Gen (Res.) Giora Eiland and the Syrian chief of staff General Ali Habib. Both also called on the Russian chief of staff, Gen. Yuri Baluyevski. The Syrian general came out of his meeting with a brilliant contract for the sale of the advanced Iskander SS-26 surface missile. The Israeli general ran into a blank wall when he tried to persuade the Russian to withhold the missile from the Assad regime. Last January, when the deal was first broached, the Bush administration stepped in and obtained a promise from president Vladimir Putin to call off the sale, as did Israel’s Ariel Sharon during the Russian president’s visit in May.

Putin has broken those pledges, DEBKA-Net-Weekly 224 revealed in its detailed report on September 30. For a speedy delivery in the first quarter of 2006, the Syrians paid cash. The value of the transaction is unknown but it certainly runs into hundreds of million dollars, given that Syria has purchased 26 of the most advanced missile of its kind in use anywhere in the world. The United States and NATO have code-named the Iskander SS-26 “Stone.” They have nothing in their missile arsenal to match its unique attributes.

With a 400-km range and a 480-kilo warhead composed of 54 elements, the missile hits a target within a 20-meter radius. Two missiles with a range of 280km are mounted on each launch pad. The system can be used against small and large targets alike, easily overcoming air defenses. It is almost impossible for existing electronic weapons systems to prevent the Iskander’s launch because of its speed and high flexibility. Its targets are found in mid-flight by satellites, accompanying airplanes, conventional intelligence centers or a lone soldier directing artillery fire. Targets may also be found by feeding photos into the missile’s computer by means of a scanner.

The self-direction device functions even in fog, darkness or storms. The name Iskander is Alexander (the Great) in the Turkoman language. Weighing 3,800 kilos it is operated by a crew of three. It comes in two versions: the 500-kilo version provided the Russian Army and the 280-kilo missile sold to Syria. So impressive is the Russian “Stone”, that in 2004, the Americans sought to include it in various treaties signed with Russia for precluding the manufacture and sale of certain weapons. Moscow balked. A Western missile expert says: “Even a small quantity of these missiles is capable of radically changing the balance of strength in local conflicts.” It is a strategic weapon for countries with a small area like Syria.

Nine months ago, on January 12, 2005, Moscow “leaked” the news of a big new arms deal with Syria that included the following missiles: the Iskander SS-26, SA-10 Grumble ground-to-air, and SA-18 Grouse (Igla 9K38) shoulder-launched anti-air missiles capable of hitting objects at an altitude of 3,600 meters and range of 5,200 meters. Israeli raised the ceiling over this transaction as radically shifting the balance of strength between the xxxish state and Syria. Washington embarked on a quiet diplomatic dialogue to deter Damascus from acquiring the new hardware, maintaining it posed a threat to the US army in Iraq.

After weeks of palaver and pressure, president Vladimir Putin and defense minister Sergei Ivanov relented and promised Washington and Jerusalem to withhold the Iskander SS-26 from Syria. The other items would have their aggressive options “neutered” and rendered fit for defensive use alone. It is now clear that Putin’s promise to the Americans and Israelis to withhold the missile’s sale was no more than a time-winning ploy until an opportunity presented itself to go through with the transaction.

DEBKAfile’s military experts add four points:

1. Assad had need of a sop to his armed forces if he intends to go through with the exercise DEBKA revealed earlier, to follow in Muammar Qaddafi’s footsteps and make his peace with Washington. The Syrian ruler will demonstrated that he is the only Middle East leader capable of providing his army with a weapons system as sophisticated Iskander SS-22. This may divert the generals from plotting to overthrow him if he throws some of his top security officers to the wolves over the Hariri assassination.

2. Putin’s motivation in breaking his promises to Bush and Sharon is his fundamental urge to show Washington and Paris they are not the only players in the Middle East and Syrian-Lebanese arena. He hopes by the missile sale to prevent the Assad regime from collapsing.

3. The Bush administration refrained from interceding in the deal this because, as DEBKA revealed before, the White House has not yet decided finally whether to finally topple Assad or let him survive. Washington’s silence on the missile sale points to the latter option.

4. Israel’s failure to stop the delivery even after the kudos Sharon collected over the pullout from Gaza means that the country’s basic security situation and international influence remain unchanged by the sacrifice of its strategic presence in Gaza.

Source: http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1095

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Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russia keeps up pressure on Georgia

Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, has posted a strong warning to neighbouring Georgia against threatening his country. Addressing the members of Russian parliament on Tuesday, before the adoption of a motion condemning Georgia's leadership, President Putin said that no country should get away with threatening Russia. "I would not allow anyone to talk to Russia in the language of provocation and blackmail," Putin said. He added that he was speaking specifically about Georgia.

Putin thanked his MPs for drawing up a resolution due to be adopted on Wednesday that supported the government's action to impose sanctions on Georgia, including a halt to transport and postal links. "I am grateful for your support of actions by the executive aimed at defending the rights, dignity and lives of our fellow citizens abroad," he said. Russia began the suspension of air, road, maritime, rail and postal links on Tuesday in retaliation to Georgia's arrest of four Russian military officers they accused of spying. Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said that the blockade would continue despite the release of the four men on Monday.

'Hostile rhetoric'

A Kremlin official was quoted on the Gazeta.ru news website on Wednesday as having said that the sanctions would not be lifted until Georgia ended its "hostile rhetoric". Police have started singling out businesses and restaurants belonging to Georgians in Moscow saying they could be closed for various legal violations. A popular Georgian-owned casino has been closed on the grounds that it lacked proper authorisation for its gaming tables and slot machines. Lavrov said the measures were to cut off a flow of money that he claimed was being used by the Georgian leadership to increase its military strength in preparation for the "forceful seizure" of two pro-Russian breakaway regions.

Russian parliament

Later this week, the Russian parliament is set to consider a bill that would allow the government to prevent Georgians living in Russia from sending money home. According to some estimates, about one million of Georgia's 4.4 million population work in Russia, and their families rely on the hundreds of millions of dollars that are sent back every year. Moscow's relations with Tbilisi have steadily worsened since Mikhail Saakashvili came to power after the 2003 Rose Revolution, pledging to reduce Russia's influence, rein in the breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and join Nato.

You can find this article at: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exer...72602D4E61.htm

Georgia – on Moscow's Mind

by Patrick J. Buchanan

With the failure of the Orange Revolution, Ukraine is being drawn back into Moscow's orbit. Now, Georgia, another former republic of the old Soviet Union, is finding that ex-colonies of the empire pay a price for becoming estranged from Mother Russia. In 2003, Georgia underwent a Rose Revolution that swept Eduard Shevardnadze from power. But in the street demonstrations that raised up Mikhail Saakashvili, Moscow saw the fine hand of Bush's "democracy project." Since then, Moscow has seethed, as Saakashvili has pulled his country steadily toward the EU and NATO.

In late September, Saakashvili went a bridge too far, arresting four Russian officials as spies. President Vladimir Putin denounced the arrests as an "act of state terrorism with hostage-taking," calling them "a sign of the political legacy of Lavrenti Pavlovich Beria." Beria, who headed the NKVD secret police under Josef Stalin, had come out of Georgia, as did Stalin. To ease the crisis, Georgia released and expelled the Russians. But that failed to satisfy Putin, who recalled Russia's ambassador, cut air and rail travel and postal lines, ceased to issue visas to Tbilisi, imposed an embargo, began to expel Georgians from Russia, and conducted naval maneuvers in the Black Sea off the coast of Georgia.

Since the 1990s, Moscow has supported secessionists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, who wish to break free of Georgia and rejoin Russia. Putin has lately met with the leaders of both regions at the Black Sea resort of Sochi. Moscow also maintains Russian peacekeeping troops in both. This confrontation is between unequals. Georgia, a poor country of 5 million, is dependent on Russia not only for the remittances of its sons and daughters who work in Russia, but for the revenue from its exports of wine and mineral water, and for gas and electricity. Russians, resentful at perceived Georgian insolence and American meddling in their backyard, support Putin's cracking of the whip. But Putin may have unleashed a strain of nationalism he could find difficult to contain.

Says Nikolai Svanidze, a leading Russian TV personality of Georgian heritage, "This anti-Georgian campaign … has led to a wave of xenophobia, which is very dangerous in a multiethnic state." Saakashvili appears wholly dependent upon the restraint of Putin and Moscow. For Georgia's friends in the European Union and Washington seem impotent or unwilling to take his side. The EU is held hostage by its dependence on Russian oil and gas as winter impends. Bush, beset with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and collisions with Iran and North Korea, has shown no desire to take a stand alongside Tbilisi against Moscow.

Many believe Putin's endgame is the overthrow of Saakashvili in a counter-revolution of the kind the Russians believe was engineered in the West to bring him to power. If that is Putin's goal, there seems little more that the United States could do to prevent it than Russia could do to prevent Bill Clinton's ouster of the Haitian junta or Bush 41's ouster of Manuel Noriega. What this Tbilisi-Moscow confrontation does reveal, however, is, first, the limits of U.S. power; second, the folly of U.S. meddling in Russia's "near abroad"; third, the insanity of any decision to bring Georgia into NATO.

Were Georgia in NATO today, this crisis would have escalated into a confrontation between Washington and Moscow. For under Article 5 of the NATO treaty, an attack against one member is to be treated as an attack against all. Thus, a collision of Russian forces in South Ossetia with Georgian forces could bring America and Russia to the brink of war. Russian leaders contend that Saakashvili has been building up his military to invade and recapture the breakaway regions, and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has implied that Saakashvili ignited the crisis after visits to Washington and NATO headquarters.

No hard evidence has surfaced to substantiate this charge. But if Saakashvili was put up to creating this crisis by anyone in the United States, it was an act of colossal stupidity. What do we do now? There seems little we can do if Putin is determined to bring down Saakashvili. Russia is flush with oil and gas revenue and $250 billion in cash reserves; Moscow is moving closer to China; and Putin is far more popular in his country than Bush and Blair are in theirs.

Bush bought into the notion that U.S. vital interests required supporting ex-Russian republics against Moscow, which was absurd. Our vital interest was always in maintaining strong U.S.-Russian ties, which have been ravaged by the meddling of neoconservatives mired in Russophobia. As for who rules Ukraine or Georgia, for two centuries that was never a vital interest of ours. Thus there is no reason to extend NATO war guarantees to Ukraine, the Caucasus, or Central Asia. The destiny of that region will be determined by the dominant powers that reside there: Russia, China, Turkey, Iran. Not by us.

Source: http://www.antiwar.com/pat/?articleid=9906

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Anti-terrorism drills at Armenia NPP set for active phase

"Special forces held a training drill this week in Armenia, demonstrating response capabilities in the event of a terrorist attack at the Metsamor Power Plant."

MOSCOW, September 25 (RIA Novosti) - A joint command and staff anti-terrorism exercise at nuclear power facilities in southwest Armenia will enter its active phase September 26, military officials said Monday. The Russian-Armenian exercise, Anti-Terror-2006, which started at a nuclear plant in the city of Metsamor September 15 and will last until September 29, aims to practice coordination of law enforcement agencies in the event of a terrorist attack on vital infrastructure facilities.

"In the second stage of the exercise, the anti-terrorism task groups of the Armenian and Russian security services will set up a headquarters to organize and conduct a joint operation to release hostages and eliminate terrorists at the Metsamor NPP," said Colonel General Boris Mylnikov, head of the Anti-Terrorist Center of the Commonwealth of Independent States, a loose union of 11 former Soviet republics. He said representatives of the CIS, the United States, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Greece, and anti-terrorist committees of the UN Security Council, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization had been invited to the exercise as observers.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20060925/54240711.html

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An anti-American military confederacy may loom in Asia

September 21st, 2005

The members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), an intergovernmental association comprising China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, will recognize the organization’s fifth anniversary in June 2006 with a much anticipated celebration, “Everyone agrees this first jubilee date must be celebrated accordingly,” said Vitally Vorobyev, Russia’s coordinator in the SCO. Washington, however, will not be joining in the festivities.

The reason for Washington’s sour mood? Growing anxiety surrounding the ultimate mission of the SCO and its impact on Central Asia and the Middle East. Pictures taken by journalists of Russian President Vladimir Putin during the recent joint Russsian-Chinese Peace Mission 2005 military exercises, showing the president in full military attire and holding a large model warplane were not reassuring. His subsequent flight in a supersonic bomber specifically designed to deliver a nuclear payload did not help either.

This raises an important question: with SCO leaders such as Russia’s Vladimir Putin, China’s Hu Jintao and Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad openly embracing military modernization and improved synergies, is the organization destined to become a military confederacy with the U.S. as its main target?

“For the SCO to be turned into a military and political bloc or alliance, the present-day SCO would need to be dissolved. The legislation of some of the SCO member-countries makes this [military confederacy] impossible,” said Vitally Vorobyov. He immediately followed these comments with a contradictory statement, “Cooperation between defense agencies within the SCO framework can and should develop. The SCO makes provision for this, it’s nothing new.”

Statements of this type from high-level Russian and SCO officials continue to perplex western intelligence officials, leading some to speculate that it may be only a matter of time before the SCO begins to exert its collective military influence in Central Asia and the Middle East.

Peace Mission 2005

In August, “Peace Mission 2005,” a joint eight-day military exercise involving 10,000 Russian and Chinese troops, was held in Russia’s Far East and China’s Shandong Peninsula. The exercises were led by Russian General Makhmut Gareyev, a veteran of World War II who fought against both Germany and Japan. Requests by Washington to reduce the scope of the exercises were rejected by both Russia and China.

The joint exercises involved beach landings, airborne assaults, naval blockades, anti-ship missiles and precision bombing from strategic bombers. To the surprise of western intelligence officials, Russian Tu-95MS Bear and Tu-22M3 Backfire strategic bombers designed to carry nuclear-tipped cruise missiles were deployed during the exercises. The exercises reportedly involved a mock intervention to stabilize an imaginary country driven by ethnic strife.

In response, the U.S. launched a week long “Joint Air Sea Exercise 2005” in Okinawa and Guam which included 10,000 troops and 100 warplanes from the USS Kitty Hawk strike group. In addition, the U.S. and South Korea participated in a twelve day “Ulchi Focus Lens 2005” military exercise. Taiwan has already announced that it has scheduled its own invasion defense exercise code named “Yama Sakura” for 2006. Taken collectively, the military exercises send a clear message to Moscow and Beijing that the U.S. is prepared to respond to any collaborative military threat.

Recent Military Exchanges

In September, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov announced his country had agreed to supply China with a total of 40 IL-76 transport and IL-78 refueling planes at a cost of about $1 billion. Later this month, Ivanov is expected to sign contracts to deliver Russian military vehicles to China.

The recent plane and vehicle sales continue a trend of Russian military hardware transfers to China which have included: 200 fourth-generation fighter aircraft, several S-300 air defense batteries, guided missile destroyers and sophisticated submarines worth a combined $15 billion over the past ten years. In 2004 alone, Russian arms exports to China totaled $2.3 billion.

According to Konstantin Makiyenko, the deputy director of the Center for Strategic and Technological Analysis, a Moscow-based think tank, China is also interested in purchasing Russian made A-50 Mainstay AWACS planes and a manufacturing license for the Su-30MK2 multi-role fighter. Moreover, Beijing has made it clear that wants to accelerate the purchase of advanced Russian fighters, unmanned aircraft and long and short-range missiles as part of its ongoing modernization program.

Not surprisingly, Russian Defense Minister Ivanov announced this month that Russian servicemen would travel to China for training stating, “Russia needs more experts who can speak Chinese.” More than 500 Chinese students already study at Russian military universities. But why the sudden urgency for improved communication between the two militaries?

Washington has begun to take notice of the evolving relationship. U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack commented in August,

“We would hope that anything that they [China and Russia] do is not something that would be disruptive to the current atmosphere in the [Central Asia] region.”

Unfortunately, Mr. McCormack may be disappointed.

Future Military Exercises

Immediately after the completion of their historic joint military exercises, Russia and China announced plans to hold additional joint exercises in 2006. Both countries anticipate expanding the exercises to include SCO member states Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, as well as observer states India, Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan. “It is possible by the time we decide to hold such exercises with China; other SCO countries would be willing to join, like India,” one Russian official said. Russian Defense Minister Ivanov concurred, “I think that future Russia-China military exercises will be held and other members of the SCO will probably take part in them.”

Russia and India are scheduled to hold their first joint army drill next month, with mock raids on terrorist facilities taking place in the Indian province of Rajastahn, on the boarder with Pakistan. Andrei Kokoshin, a former secretary of the Russian Security Council and a member of parliament said the impending follow-up to the Peace Mission 2005 exercises could be part of a Russia-China-India triangle which supports the increased activity of the SCO. “The exercise might focus on maintaining stability in Central Asia and ensuring the security of oil supplies via sea routes,” Kokoshin said.

Chinese, Indian and Russian naval assets working in unison to protect oil supplies in the Persian Gulf? This comment shows another disturbing aspect of the emerging confederacy, an increased willingness to use its combined military strength to secure strategic energy reserves located in the Middle East. The mere thought of the Persian Gulf clogged with warships enforcing multilateral allegiances and interests is enough to make any intelligence analyst stay up all night.

General Yury Baluyevskiy, Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, further elaborated on the topic of SCO military cooperation,

“I do not rule out that, if a decision is made by the SCO, of which Russian and China are members, the armed forces of our countries may be involved in performing certain tasks.”

General Baluyevskiy failed to elaborate on what those “certain tasks” would include.

Observer country Pakistan is also becoming more active in the military aspects of the SCO. In September, Chinese General Liang Guanglie, a member of the Central Military Commission and Chief of Staff of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), met with Pakistani General Ehsan Ul Haq, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to strengthen military-to-military ties. During the meeting in Beijing, the two generals exchanged views on issues of common global and regional interest, as well as army building.

The most troubling development of the past month related to the SCO is the growing prospect of a nuclear-obsessed Iran joining the organization as a permanent member. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the newly elected conservative President of Iran, is a proven U.S. antagonist and a firm believer in spreading revolutionary Islamist ideology throughout the Muslim world. His recent comments at the U.N. concerning the U.S. show a preparation for confrontation with the U.S. Making matters worse; Iran is planning to build up its military forces. Iran had planned to double its military budget by 2010, but thanks to record oil revenues, that timetable has been adjusted to 2008.

New Thinking Needed

The SCO is a menacing confederacy of powerful nations arising out of the shadows of the Cold War that could cause tremendous global instability and even lead to world war. Geopolitics aside, the SCO has the potential to become the most powerful alliance on earth, combining Russia’s energy, military and technology expertise; China and India’s economic and human capital; and Iran’s enormous energy resources and growing military capabilities. This unique combination makes the SCO a formidable adversary for the U.S.

In February, Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) chief of staff General Liang Guanglie said the Peace Mission 2005 exercises would, “protect the peace and stability in our region and the world.” The world? The world has been led to believe that the SCO is a regional alliance designed to address issues of mutual concern such as terrorism, separatism and extremism -- whatever they may mean at the moment for the members of the SCO. With military operations scheduled for 2006 and an expanded list of participating nations, the military threat posed by the SCO is starting to take shape.

At this time, what steps need to be taken by the U.S. to prepare for a possible SCO military threat? First, the U.S. Congress, Department of Defense and U.S. intelligence community must recognize that the continued military modernization and integration involving Russia, China, India, Pakistan and Iran will directly threaten the U.S. and its allies within the next several years. This is an uncomfortable reality, but one which is taking shape right before our eyes.

Second, calls by the SCO and others in the international community for an immediate withdraw of U.S. troops from the Middle East and Central Asia should be disregarded, due to the horrific consequences that the inevitable power vacuum would cause. Instead, strategic alliances should be strengthened with countries such as Georgia and the Ukraine to counter any regional threat.

Third, recent calls by Iran for a Muslim seat on the UN Security Council should be viewed for what they are; an effort by Tehran to weaken U.S. legitimacy in the international community and diminish its influence in Central Asia and the Middle East. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s announcement that his country will sell “peaceful” nuclear technology to other Islamic countries is too chilling to contemplate.

In short, the SCO is an immature, but potentially dangerous confederacy of countries with a mutual interest to dethrone the U.S. and if necessary, confront it militarily. Under the guise of economic partnership, regional alliances and friendship, China, Russia and the other members of the SCO are rapidly increasing their collective power. Recent Pentagon reports identifying China as a growing threat are indeed accurate, but don’t go far enough.

The reports are deficient in that they base their analysis and predictions on countries such as China acting unilaterally. As a result, compulsory discussions concerning the rise of regional and global alliances that threaten the U.S. are not taking place. This could be a fatal mistake, since the SCO has become the perfect vehicle for coordinated military action in the future.

Frederick W. Stakelbeck Jr. is an expert on bilateral and trilateral alliances as they relate to China foreign policy.

Source: http://www.americanthinker.com/artic...rticle_id=4837

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russian, Chinese Spies Saturate U.S., Britain

By Jim Kouri, 12 April 2006

| Voices Magazine | The legendary MI5 British counterintelligence service is said to be deeply concerned over an increase in spying by Russian and Chinese operatives in the United Kingdom. The United States' Federal Bureau of Investigation has similar concerns with Russian and Chinese agents infiltrating the U.S. military-industrial complex, sometimes in violation of American immigration laws. Although intelligence experts aren't certain how widespread the problem is, they believe the espionage is rampant and a serious consequence of the global economy.

MI5 suspects upwards of 15 foreign intelligence services are working within the UK and are a threat to the United Kingdom's interests, and the primary focus of their counterespionage efforts are the Chinese and Russians. Using many of the same methods the Japanese used in the United States in the 1960s and 1970s, the Chinese are interested in any and all information that may give them a leg up in the competitive global economy. In spite of repeated warnings to businesses, companies in the UK and U.S. continue to hire Chinese workers without conducting thorough background investigations including verifying previous employment or immigration status.

Chinese government officials and businessmen are proven aggressive in their attempts to find out everything about how Western companies operate and how they are structured. It is old-fashioned human intelligence gathering -- it's thousands of years old and it works. Taking a page out of Sun Tzu's "The Art of War," they believe intelligence operations will give them the victory they seek, whether in terms of military prowess or industrial success. Using stealth tactics such as sending visiting delegations of Chinese businessmen, the spies are able to penetrate what little security companies employ to thwart theft of information.

One British firm eager to develop its business with China recently invited a delegation to visit its UK factory, according to The Guardian. The Chinese authorities sent a delegation, but only a few of them turned up. The rest were believed to have traveled around Britain inviting themselves to defense and research establishments. Again, they were able to penetrate the security measures in place at these facilities.

According to several business leaders in the UK, if a British company creates a fuss about visitors who fail to turn up, the Chinese threaten to cancel the company's license to trade. As with the Japanese spies in the U.S., the Chinese spies are specifically interested in scientific and high-tech developments. Their economy is said to be booming while at the same time there is a serious shortage in information technology and modern processing, manufacturing and design skills.

MI5 is also concerned over the loyalties of Chinese who are UK citizens. Intelligence officers claim these workers may have mixed loyalties and strong ties to China. In Britain, the Chinese and Russians appear to focus on high-tech production, such as security and surveillance systems, conventional weapons systems, and especially dual use equipment -- materials that can be used by the private sector or by the military.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation is also alarmed about the impact of foreign spies within the United States, especially Chinese and Russian operatives. As with businesses in the United Kingdom, American companies seem to pay little attention to corporate espionage, putting most of their security budget into protection against terrorist attacks.

The FBI are suspicious of Russia, Iran, and North Korea but have focused mostly on the Chinese. The feds estimate that the are over 2,600 Chinese front companies in the U.S. U.S. and UK security experts believe that when nations such as China and Russia saw the speed and effectiveness with which the U.S. conducted the Iraq invasion, they decided widespread espionage operations were necessary to keep up with the world's sole superpower.

Sources: Federal Bureau of Investigation, National Security Institute, American Society for Industrial Security, National Association of Chiefs of Police Private Security Committee, The Guardian

About Jim Kouri/Archives

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russia warns US over missile system

Russia has criticised the proposed deployment in Europe of a United States missile defence system near its borders. Poland and the Czech Republic are being considered for the European base of a US anti-missile shield, although opposition to the plan is rising in both countries. The US is also considering basing interceptor missiles and radar in Bulgaria, Hungary and Turkey.

A Russian general quoted by daily newspaper Izvestia said Moscow would view the deployment of US missiles in eastern and central Europe as a security threat and would take retaliatory measures. Yevgeny Buzhinsky, the head of the Russian defence ministry's international military co-operation department, urged the US and its allies to refrain from unilateral action and negotiate with Moscow.

"Retaliatory measures"

"The deployment of missile defence near the Russian borders could pose a real threat to our deterrent forces," Buzhinsky said in the article. "We would view that as an unfriendly gesture on behalf of the United States, some eastern European nations and Nato as a whole. Such actions would require taking adequate retaliatory measures of military and political character," Buzhinsky said.

The European site would be the first expansion outside the United States of an unproven missile defence system aimed at repelling any limited long-range missile attack from North Korea or the Middle East. Buzhinsky would not elaborate on how Russia would respond to any deployment, but warned "a buildup of military potential near the Russian borders couldn't strengthen European security".

Interceptor missiles

"It's still not too late to analyse possible negative consequences of unilateral actions in the security sphere and try to avert them," Buzhinsky wrote in the article.

"Advertising missile defence capabilities, the importance of these facilities for the United States and a strong public reaction that can be caused by their destruction would make these sites an attractive target for terror attacks," he said.

The US missile defence system employs radar to detect enemy missile launches and guide interceptors to their targets. The command centre is based in the southwestern US state of Colorado, and interceptor missiles are located in Alaska and at Vandenberg air base in California. General Henry Obering, the head of the US missile defence agency, said last month that he expected to make recommendations in a matter of months on where to position the missiles and radars in Europe.

Source: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exer...83436E189E.htm

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russian air base in Armenia ready to open fire at NATO planes

Channel One TV, Moscow
4 May 04

Presenter Back in Soviet times airborne troops stationed in
Transcaucasia served as a reliable defence of the country's southern
borders. In the mid-1990s Russia's airspace in the area was left
without any defence. Armenia alone met Russia halfway and allowed for
the Russian Airborne Troops to remain on its territory.

Correspondent Aleksey Artemyev Fighters at the Russian air base
Erebuni have six minutes and not a second more to take off for a duty
flight and intercept a target that has illegally entered Armenia's
airspace. The end of the runway and the border with the neighbouring
country are separated by a distance of 15 km. The neighbouring country
is Turkey, a NATO member state, with a great number of air bases
stationed on its territory, including those belonging to the USA.

Two years ago Russian pilots cut short an attempt by a high-speed spy
plane to enter Armenia's airspace from Turkey. One should always be on
alert here. All interceptors on combat duty here are equipped with
four air-to-air missiles. The two bigger ones are located closer to
the fuselage and are capable of hitting a target within a distance of
up to 80 km. The two smaller ones are intended for close combat, they
are capable of hitting any target within 30 km. The equipment is
completely ready for combat.

NATO intelligence is monitoring the Russian air base in Armenia round
the clock. Two sites for direct tracking are situated on a slope of Mt
Ararat. The Turkish Air Force are trying to have every Russian pilot
under control.

Valeriy Ded, captioned as fighter pilot We do not normally meet them
in the air. At times we spot them on our radar screens, both on board
and on the ground. They know every pilot of ours, our voices, if not
our names.

Correspondent The Erebuni air base is part of the Russian air defence
complex situated in Armenia, the only one remaining in Transcaucasia,
protecting Russia's southern borders. The main air defence forces are
located high up in the mountains, not far from Gyumri, formerly
Leninakan. There are four launch pads for air defence missile systems
Kub and S-300 there.

We were the only TV crew that was given a chance to film a Russian air
defence command post on alert duty. Unidentified officer This facility allows
us to see the sites where the air defence batteries are stationed as well as
the sectors they are facing. We can give them the whereabouts of a target
to hit.

Correspondent This radar station is able to operate within a radius of
300 km. The nearest NATO airfields in Turkey are situated at a
distance of about 200 km. In other words, the Russian command post is
able to spot any plane takeoff from any of the airfields.

Aleksey Gorskiy, captioned as commander of the combat command and
control division In May 2001 we began our test alert duty. We did not
have a right to open fire at trespassers. The Turks used to fly along
the border all the time. After the alert duty started in earnest in
October ?2001 , in other words when we were allowed to open fire, they
hardly ever appear here now.

Correspondent All the Russian air defence divisions stationed in
Armenia are working in close coordination with each other. In everyday
life pilots and anti-aircraft gunners are rivals. The air base is
proud of its unique barracks, containing fish water tanks,
mantelpieces and even a small zoo of their own. Meanwhile, the air
defence system command division claims that they have the best cook
and cuisine.