Energy in Azerbaijan

[Joseph]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Bingo, brother. It's like a domino effect. At this point they're headed for a massive recession.

It's interesting to note that even though the Manat was set to "free-float," they've just bled $600mln+ more dollars to keep it at a 1.6 rate. A sum this large suggests that it's not just your average folks that are making the run to the bank, but your big fish too. The questions now:

1. Does SOFAZ take over and funnel funds into their CB?
2. Does their CB start printing their way out?
3. Do they secure an international loan?

4. Where can we get some popcorn?

Great questions and analysis

Investing in popcorn futures myself; cold winter, Kurdish-Turkish civil war, Azeri meltdown, Russia vs. Turkey in Syria.

[armnuke]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Bingo, brother. It's like a domino effect. At this point they're headed for a massive recession.

It's interesting to note that even though the Manat was set to "free-float," they've just bled $600mln+ more dollars to keep it at a 1.6 rate. A sum this large suggests that it's not just your average folks that are making the run to the bank, but your big fish too. The questions now:

1. Does SOFAZ take over and funnel funds into their CB?
2. Does their CB start printing their way out?
3. Do they secure an international loan?

4. Where can we get some popcorn?

Printing will only add supply of Manats. With no Dollars to cover that supply, it's gonna be worse.

[HyeSocialist]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

With the oil and no banking sector in contraction, the real estate market and rental market is probably next. If they wait longer, all the foreign oil companies can re-negotiate their contracts.

Bingo, brother. It's like a domino effect. At this point they're headed for a massive recession.

It's interesting to note that even though the Manat was set to "free-float," they've just bled $600mln+ more dollars to keep it at a 1.6 rate. A sum this large suggests that it's not just your average folks that are making the run to the bank, but your big fish too. The questions now:

1. Does SOFAZ take over and funnel funds into their CB?
2. Does their CB start printing their way out?
3. Do they secure an international loan?

4. Where can we get some popcorn?

[Joseph]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

With the oil and banking sector in contraction, the real estate market and rental market is probably next. If they wait longer, all the foreign oil companies can re-negotiate their contracts.

[londontsi]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan Central Bank’s FX reserves down by over $600M

Date: 02.02.16, 17:43

http://en.azvision.az/news.php?id=29298

The foreign exchange (FX) reserves of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) fell by $618.2 million (12.3 percent) to $4,398.5 million in January 2016 as compared to December 2015, according to CBA statistical data published on its website.

CBA’s foreign exchange reserves have declined by $9,359.8 million (68 percent) since early 2015.

The foreign exchange reserves of the CBA have been declining since July 2014.

Earlier, the decline of the foreign exchange reserves was going on slowly (around $20-50 million). But their volume started to sharply reduce in December 2014, due to an increase in demand for dollar supply in the country.

However, the growth of foreign exchange reserves resumed in May-June 2015. In May, the Central Bank’s forex reserves rose by $42.9 million (0.51 percent) compared to April, up to $8.43 billion, and by $89.4 million (1.06 percent) in June.

But, after slight growth, the reduction of foreign exchange reserves of the CBA continued.

The foreign exchange reserves’ reduction is due to an intervention carried out by the CBA on the foreign exchange market to keep the rate of manat against the US dollar at a stable level.

'




Nice building but no money inside !!

[armnuke]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Banking License of Tekhnika Bank Canceled

The Board of the Central Bank on February 1 eliminated the banking license of Tekhnika Bank JSC. The bank was preparing to celebrate its 22nd anniversary in February.

CBA's decision is justified by the bank’s not meeting the minimum requirements for total capital, low level of the adequacy of the total capital (3%) and not fulfilling its obligations to creditors. CBA reports that Tekhnika Bank could not manage its current activity safely and in compliance with the prudential requirements.

Recall that in October 2015 the former Chairman of the bank’s Supervisory Board, Etibar Aliyev returned to his post and regained a majority stake in the bank in January. These shares were issued in the name of the Luxembourg-based company Beaufort Investissements S.A. At present, it owns 87.06% of the shares of the bank. The bank's authorized capital amounts to 75.1 million manats.

From the beginning of 2016, CBA canceled the licenses of Bank of Azerbaijan, NBC Bank, Gafgaz Inkishaf Banki, Atra Bank, Gandja Bank and United Credit Bank. -----08D

[Joseph]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3d370edc-c67f-11e5-b3b1-7b2481276e45.html#axzz3yxt2Hgd3

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3d370edc-c...#ixzz3yxtGkPZN

Azerbaijan’s feudal elite seeks help from western taxpayers

Sir, Jack Farchy and Shawn Donnan report that the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are preparing to shore up the Azerbaijan economy, which is tottering as the oil price tumbles (“World Bank and IMF move to avert defaults caused by falling oil prices”, January 28). An IMF team is currently on a “fact-finding” mission at the Azerbaijan government’s request.

The Organized Crime and Corruption Project (OCCRP) is wondering what new “facts” might emerge. For years, investigative journalists from OCCRP and elsewhere have observed the first family and its acolytes dominate through opaque business practices and autocratic abuses. A WikiLeaks cable sent from global intelligence company Stratfor via SIPRNet, the classified US Department of Defence computer network, commented that Azerbaijan is run like a medieval feudal system: “The [Aliyev/Pashayev] families also collude, using government mechanisms, to . . . create barriers that only the best connected can clear.”

A low oil price threatens this cosy arrangement and has sparked popular protests. This is no small development given the government’s own hostility towards an oppressed society. OCCRP journalist Khadija Ismayilova has just begun a seven-year jail sentence after regularly exposing the corruption at the heart of the Aliyev regime — joining nearly 100 other journalists and activists behind bars. Western taxpayers should be appalled that they are being asked to fix the problems of the feudal elite. OCCRP has revealed the regime’s corruption in exhaustive detail.

Meanwhile, corporate ownership information has been confidential in Azerbaijan since 2012. This means there is no simple way to check who benefits from any transactions with the government. These moves are designed to prevent any public scrutiny or government accountability. A bailout without stringent reform will be caught in the same web of systematic corruption. IMF and the World Bank must avoid siphoning yet more money, this time from western taxpayers, into the coffers of a wealthy autocracy.

The Azerbaijan finance minister’s claim that there is no “urgent” need for support may well reflect the underlying strength of the economy, but it also betrays a desire to avoid a loan with too many strings attached.One fact remains: if anyone is in the best position to belatedly ensure the economic safety of Azerbaijan’s citizens, it is President Ilham Aliyev himself.

Tom King and Marina Bowder
The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project

[Vrej1915]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

lol esa theyll blame the secret Armenian leadership of IMF

The reason of the refusal is much simpler:
The IMF asked for the real balance.
Or as we always supected, the arythmetics of Baku are grossly manipulated.
The West does perfectly know how much money did it pay to the regime in the last decade, and the numbers are simply unrealistic.
The asked the balance of their reserve fund, socar and central bank.
Aliyev refused, that's all.

The reason of the gross inflations are multiple.
It was first aimed at us, to intimidate and hope for concessions.
It was ment of international prestige, more or less silly narcissistic.
But most of all, it was aimed to their own people.... the more whealt they claimed, the more they could loot. The more potential oil and gas finds and reserves did they claim, the more it was bearable to accept actual looting...
Or the objective reality is, that there was virtually no significant finds were discovered in the last 2 decades.
The deep off shore fields were known since soviet times, only the soviets did not have the technology to exploit them.
BP basically squeezed the best and biggest of all known fields in a decade.
No major dicoveries since, only a vociferal dispute with Turkmenistan , and would be and expensive projects...

If the Aliyev regime did addmit that this was all they got, and nothing major to come in future decades, they should have spent much less, and thus looted much less, even in a dictatorial regime...

So all the problem is their refusal to give real balances.

But the only fact that they were forced to ask for help, perfectly knowing the kind of answer they will get, already tells a lot about the real state of their reserves....

I hope they will not cancel F1 competition, and show their whealt by paying all costs for all visitors, from state budget...

[Mher]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan Unlikely to Get Loans from International Financial Institutions

Last week’s negotiations of the missions of international financial institutions with the leadership of Azerbaijan were difficult and fruitless.

As it became known to Turan from unofficial sources, in response to the request for credits, five requirements were billed: wide privatization, reduction of the state apparatus, a real judicial reform, the freezing of wages, pensions and public spending, and accession to the WTO.

According to the same source, of the five conditions the country's government agreed only to the first two. In consequence of that, the international organizations considered the issuing of loans impossible.

This gives reason to believe the government is not ready to conduct serious anti-crisis reforms.

According to the Financial Times, the Azerbaijani authorities planned to get loans of 4 billion USD from the IMF and the World Bank. However, the President denied the reports, calling them "false information from anti-Azerbaijani forces," and added that Azerbaijan does not need foreign financial assistance. -02B-

lol esa theyll blame the secret Armenian leadership of IMF

[armnuke]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/...rom=USD&To=AZN

Dollar/Manat down to 1.63, down four more percent since second devaluation. Actually street rate in Baku at 1.85

XE shows 1.63, Azeri websites show 1.60
Nevertheless, black market is well operating there