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Some very revealing commentary from one of Armenia's wealthiest and most influential political activists.
Armenian
CHAIRMAN OF WAC ARA ABRAHAMIAN SHARING WITH HIS THOUGHTS ON RUSSIA, DEMOCRACY AND ARMENIAN-TURKISH RELATIONS
-Is that possible that an "orange" revolution will take place in Armenia?
- I think today's situation in Armenia is hardly favorable for such a revolution. It usually comes with elections. There is still much time for parliamentary and presidential elections in Armenia. It is important for an "orange" revolution that there is a united opposition with one leader. It also requires involvement of external powers and weak and disunited authorities. Many elements that go hand in hand with "orange" revolution are absent in Armenia. Besides, Armenia's political elite understands that there is the Nagorno Karabakh issue which may suffer in case of political crises. Thus, the opposition does not neglect Karabakh issue while defining its stance against the authorities. But, as President Bush said in his speech at the International Republican, USA will perhaps back suchlike revolutions and regime changes in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. I want to believe that he meant Georgia and Azerbaijan but not Armenia. I think neither the US nor Russia are interested to see revolution in Armenia.
- How do you see Nagorno Karabakh conflict resolution?
- The resolution is obvious for us, Armenians. We certainly would like to set right the historic injustice, when ancient Armenian region was deliberately handed over to Azerbaijan by the Party's decision -- a decision that no one had right to take. For us it is obvious that Nagorno Karabakh is part of Armenia. By making concession, I think it would be possible to recognize Karabakh a sovereign unite, a small state, which will have good-neighborly relations with Azerbaijan and close brotherly ties with Armenia. The Minsk group co-chairs make different offers to push the settlement forward. But it's not the time and the place for detailed discussion of these offers, particularly in case when they are not thoroughly elaborated.
- Is that possible that the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan will break out?
- That threat is always hanging, as Azerbaijan is getting ready for parliamentary elections in November. If the opposition exerts too much pressure the authorities may provoke break of the truce in order to unite the nation and keep the opposition away from taking the wheel. Much will depend on America's and Russia's behavior. Will they take a tough position not to allow a war that will destabilize the region? In view of the newly built Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, such destabilization would play into hands of neither oil companies nor the Western states with their huge investments in the pipeline.
- What do you think of Turkish Prime Minister's letter to Armenian President with a proposal of a joint Armenian-Turkish group to study archive documents connected with the events in the beginning of 20th century?
- I think that the fact of Turkish Prime Minister's appeal to Armenian President should be greeted. Unfortunately, Turkey takes such steps only after feeling international community's pressure. Without Washington's pressure that would be no Turkish-Armenian Reconciliation Commission. Without European Union's pressure, without European Parliament's precondition of Armenian Genocide recognition the Turkish side would hardly take any step to remove that painful issue which separates the two nations.
I think that Armenian President is right saying that it is not the time to discuss archive documents and that it is not an issue for the historians to study. Today the Armenian-Turkish relations are a political issue. Politicians and diplomats have to treat it but not the historians.
At any rate, Armenian side has no doubt that there was a genocide. No Armenians are left in our historic homeland, their property was appropriated, many monuments were ruined and the people spread all over the world. It's ridiculous to return to historical studies today when 2 dozens of states and international organizations recognize the Armenian Genocide.
- How do you see the improvement of Armenian-Turkish relations?
- I think that those relations should improve based on the international law and should include a few elements: Genocide recognition by Turkey, material reparation to Genocide survivors and territorial concession to Armenia.
I think that small material reparation (there are very few survivors today that could present their documents to Turkish authorities), construction of a memorial at the place of massive massacres and return of a symbolic territory comprising the Mount Ararat, Armenian's medieval capital of Ani could be a good ground for talks.
At all events, the World Armenian Congress has created a commission of specialists that should elaborate a pan-Armenian approach and demand to this issue. It will also decide the size of reparation. I think we will have final and summarized recommendations to submit to the Armenian authorities and the Armenian Diaspora.
Source: http://www.azg.am/?lang=EN&num=2005060401
Armenian
CHAIRMAN OF WAC ARA ABRAHAMIAN SHARING WITH HIS THOUGHTS ON RUSSIA, DEMOCRACY AND ARMENIAN-TURKISH RELATIONS
-Is that possible that an "orange" revolution will take place in Armenia?
- I think today's situation in Armenia is hardly favorable for such a revolution. It usually comes with elections. There is still much time for parliamentary and presidential elections in Armenia. It is important for an "orange" revolution that there is a united opposition with one leader. It also requires involvement of external powers and weak and disunited authorities. Many elements that go hand in hand with "orange" revolution are absent in Armenia. Besides, Armenia's political elite understands that there is the Nagorno Karabakh issue which may suffer in case of political crises. Thus, the opposition does not neglect Karabakh issue while defining its stance against the authorities. But, as President Bush said in his speech at the International Republican, USA will perhaps back suchlike revolutions and regime changes in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. I want to believe that he meant Georgia and Azerbaijan but not Armenia. I think neither the US nor Russia are interested to see revolution in Armenia.
- How do you see Nagorno Karabakh conflict resolution?
- The resolution is obvious for us, Armenians. We certainly would like to set right the historic injustice, when ancient Armenian region was deliberately handed over to Azerbaijan by the Party's decision -- a decision that no one had right to take. For us it is obvious that Nagorno Karabakh is part of Armenia. By making concession, I think it would be possible to recognize Karabakh a sovereign unite, a small state, which will have good-neighborly relations with Azerbaijan and close brotherly ties with Armenia. The Minsk group co-chairs make different offers to push the settlement forward. But it's not the time and the place for detailed discussion of these offers, particularly in case when they are not thoroughly elaborated.
- Is that possible that the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan will break out?
- That threat is always hanging, as Azerbaijan is getting ready for parliamentary elections in November. If the opposition exerts too much pressure the authorities may provoke break of the truce in order to unite the nation and keep the opposition away from taking the wheel. Much will depend on America's and Russia's behavior. Will they take a tough position not to allow a war that will destabilize the region? In view of the newly built Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, such destabilization would play into hands of neither oil companies nor the Western states with their huge investments in the pipeline.
- What do you think of Turkish Prime Minister's letter to Armenian President with a proposal of a joint Armenian-Turkish group to study archive documents connected with the events in the beginning of 20th century?
- I think that the fact of Turkish Prime Minister's appeal to Armenian President should be greeted. Unfortunately, Turkey takes such steps only after feeling international community's pressure. Without Washington's pressure that would be no Turkish-Armenian Reconciliation Commission. Without European Union's pressure, without European Parliament's precondition of Armenian Genocide recognition the Turkish side would hardly take any step to remove that painful issue which separates the two nations.
I think that Armenian President is right saying that it is not the time to discuss archive documents and that it is not an issue for the historians to study. Today the Armenian-Turkish relations are a political issue. Politicians and diplomats have to treat it but not the historians.
At any rate, Armenian side has no doubt that there was a genocide. No Armenians are left in our historic homeland, their property was appropriated, many monuments were ruined and the people spread all over the world. It's ridiculous to return to historical studies today when 2 dozens of states and international organizations recognize the Armenian Genocide.
- How do you see the improvement of Armenian-Turkish relations?
- I think that those relations should improve based on the international law and should include a few elements: Genocide recognition by Turkey, material reparation to Genocide survivors and territorial concession to Armenia.
I think that small material reparation (there are very few survivors today that could present their documents to Turkish authorities), construction of a memorial at the place of massive massacres and return of a symbolic territory comprising the Mount Ararat, Armenian's medieval capital of Ani could be a good ground for talks.
At all events, the World Armenian Congress has created a commission of specialists that should elaborate a pan-Armenian approach and demand to this issue. It will also decide the size of reparation. I think we will have final and summarized recommendations to submit to the Armenian authorities and the Armenian Diaspora.
Source: http://www.azg.am/?lang=EN&num=2005060401