The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russia President Putin Honors Scientists

"Hero of Russia" Armenian explorer, oceanographer, engineer and politician
Artur Chilingarov posing for picture after his historic mission
to the bottom of the North Pole in the Arctic ocean

President Vladimir Putin on Thursday granted "hero" awards to scientists backing Russia's claim to a mountain range under the Arctic Ocean that is believed to contain huge oil and gas reserves. The scientists planted a Russian flag under the North Pole ice in August as part of an Arctic expedition that heated up the controversy over an area that a U.S. study suggests may contain as much as 25 percent of the world's undiscovered oil and gas. Russia is one of several countries that have laid claims to the area. Putin signed a decree awarding three members of the expedition the title of Hero of the Russian Federation. They are Anatoly Salagevich, Yevgeny Chernyayev and lawmaker Artur Chilingarov. A fourth expedition member, lawmaker Vladimir Gruzdev, was granted the Order for Service to the Fatherland, the Kremlin said. Russia's Natural Resources Ministry has said preliminary results on soil core samples gathered by the expedition show that the 1,240-mile Lomonosov Ridge under the Arctic is part of Russia's shelf. It said more geological tests would be conducted, as well. After the Russian expedition, Canada vowed to increase its icebreaker fleet and build two new military facilities in the Arctic, while Denmark sent a team of scientists to seek evidence that the ridge was attached to its territory of Greenland. The U.S. government also sent an icebreaker for a research expedition. The issue has become more urgent with growing evidence that global warming is shrinking polar ice — opening up resource development and new shipping lanes. The 1982 U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea gives the Arctic countries 10 years after they ratify the treaty to prove their claims under the largely uncharted polar ice pack. All but the United States have ratified the treaty. Chilingarov, a renowned polar scientist, was named a Hero of the Soviet Union in the 1980s after leading an expedition aboard a research vessel that was trapped for a time in Antarctic sea ice.

Source: http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j...j5nGAD8U3060O0

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

The official voice of Moscow, Russia Today, is now broad-casted live twenty-four hours a day seven days a week. Russia Today has been on the airways presenting the 'Russian point of view' in English since 2005. Russia Today is meant to provide the global viewer with an alternative news source, a different perspective in geopolitics and offset the often times negative coverage the Russian Federation receives within western news media. Interested parties can either obtain Russia Today's programming by contacting their cable or satellite television provider or via the internet where they will be able to view Russia Today streaming live free of charge. I have been watching Russia Today regularly for some time now. I personally think Russia Today is perhaps one of the finest English language news programmings in the world. In this age of corporate controlled news media in the West, the official voice of Russia Today feels like a breath of fresh air.

Armenian

RUSSIA TODAY

Russia Today Live Television: http://wwitv.com/tv_channels/b1527.htm

Corporate profile

Russia Today

Russia Today is the first 24/7 English-language news channel to present the Russian point of view on events happening in Russia and around the globe. The channel was established in April 2005 by the Autonomous Nonprofit Organization TV-Novosti. Its founder is the Russia’s biggest news agency RIA-Novosti. Around the clock, RT provides viewers with breaking news, stories on politics, business, and public affairs. Millions of viewers switch on to Russia Today to learn what other media are not likely to have, especially news from Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia. A selection of the best news reports, documentaries, stories and programmes can be viewed at YouTube.

Achievements

Russia Today started broadcasting in December 2005. Since then, RT has earned the respect of its viewers and fellow journalists all over the world for its commitment to independent journalism. Russia Today is the founding Russian member of The Association for International Broadcasting, an independent non-for-profit organization designed to promote effective cooperation between the leading international broadcasters and professional associations. The channel’s reports are quoted by the major media. The largest Russian and world broadcasters regularly show Russia Today’s exclusive footage. Among Russia Today’s indisputable achievements are fast and high-quality direct coverage of crucial events, as well as exclusive interviews with high-ranking personalities, leading economists, politicians, and prominent figures in culture, art, and sports.

Team

More than 700 Russian and foreign TV professionals – correspondents, anchors, presenters, producers, translators, cameramen, editors, directors form the team that keep the channel moving. Russia Today’s own correspondents report from Russia’s regions, the countries of the former Soviet Union, Europe, the US and the Middle East. The channel has correspondents’ bureaus in Kiev, Vladikavkaz, Tbilisi, London, Paris, Washington, New York, Jerusalem and Cairo and is developing plans to increase its presence in other regions of the world. Among others the team includes Peter Lavelle, a well-known political commentator; Aleksandr Gurnov, one of the pillars of Russia’s new television; Kevin Owen and Bill Dod, formerly employees of leading UK TV companies; George Watts, the legendary Radio Moscow presenter whose voice is familiar to generations of listeners; Rosie Hayes whose editing gift helped several world television networks become number one in the field and many others.

Broadcasting

Millions of viewers have an opportunity to watch Russia Today on all continents by receiving an open, non-coded signal from more than ten satellites. It can also be viewed 24 hours a day on the Internet. The channel is available on the main satellite platforms, including SKY (UK), Canalsat (France), Canal Digitaal (The Netherlands), Viasat (Northern Europe), Digital+ (Spain), Cyfra+ (Poland), Multichoice South Africa (South Africa), as well as on cable networks in practically every country of Europe. Nearly 90 million pay TV viewers in Europe, North America and South Africa regularly watch Russia Today. In Russia the channel can be received as part of NTV-PLUS, Cosmos TV, Comstar, Acado and Tvoe TV packages.

Technical Capacities

Russia Today uses state-of-the-art production technologies to secure high-quality reception at the level of world standards. The technical solution is based on tapeless DV25 standard technologies application.

Russia Today Website: http://www.russiatoday.ru/

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russian Control Of Armenian Railway Confirmed

Armenia’s underused rail network will be officially placed under the management of Russia’s state-run railway next week, Transport and Communication Minister Andranik Manukian indicated on Thursday. The Russian Railways company is the only foreign bidder participating in an international tender for the exclusive right to manage the network for at least 30 years. An Indian company, which also submitted a bid to the Armenian Transport Ministry last, pulled out of the tender in November, all but predetermining its outcome. According to Manukian, a ministry commission handling the tender opened sealed envelopes containing the Russians’ proposals late last month and this week and will announce its final decision on January 16. He said they are offering to invest $230 million in Armenia’s railway during the first five years of operations and another $240 million in the following years. Russian Railways will also pay the Armenian government $1.7 billion drams ($5.5 million) if it wins the management contract, he said. “I think they made a very good proposal,” Manukian told reporters. “I am convinced that Russian Railways will restore our infrastructure, provide new trains and repair stations and depots.” Manukian emphasized that the Russians’ investment commitments are based on the assumption that Armenia will have no rail communication with Turkey and Azerbaijan and that the Abkhaz section of Georgia’s railway linking the region to Russia will remain closed in the foreseeable future. He said they pledged to invest as much as $2.1 billion in Armenia if those rail links again become operational. The minister also said that the Russian company expects Armenia to have renewed rail communication with Turkey and Azerbaijan in 2009 and 2010 respectively. He refused to comment on this optimistic scenario, referring all questions to the Russian side. The impending rail deal will leave yet another sector of the Armenian economy under Russian control. Russian firms already dominate Armenia’s energy and telecommunication sectors and are keen to acquire other industries. One of them purchased Armenia’s largest gold mining company late last year. Few details of the deal have been made public so far.

Source: http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeni...196F9B8097.ASP

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russia to Begin Receiving SU-32/34 Long-Range Strike Fighters

Sukhoi Su-34 Fullback Russia's New Heavy Strike Fighter (info): http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Fullback.html

Sukhoi SU-32 (SU-34) Fullback fighter-bomber (video): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Mn_7VsjmtE

Russia's SU-27 Flanker design has become one of its great export successes. It is also a design success, with a basic airframe whose characteristics absorbed lessons from all of America's "teen series fighters" to produce a 4+ generation aircraft that remains the yardstick by which others still measure themselves. Growth capacity has allowed further refinements and modifications, from the SU-30/35 upgrades to versions that add canard foreplanes (SU-30MKI/M, SU-37), and even carrier-launched capability (SU-33). Then there's the SU-32/34 "Fullback," It was envisaged as the successor to the F-111 like SU-24 "Fencer," which remains in service and was very highly regarded in Chechnya as a battlefield support aircraft. The SU-34's design has evolved since its initial drafts in 1986, most visibly so in the present side-by-side xxxxpit configuration that includes features like an aisle to rest in and even a toilet of sorts. A Sept 1/06 RIA Novosti report includes a number of details, and despite its clear "home team cheerleader" style there are a number of useful tidbits in the profile.

Recent events may make that profile timely again, as production appears set to begin in earnest. Their rise to regular production would end a journey that began with the aircraft's maiden flight in 1990 as the T10V/SU-27IB. In December 2006, Sukhoi announced a target of 18 SU-34s produced by 2010, and in March 2006 defense minister Sergei Ivanov placed the longer-term schedule at 58 aircraft purchased by 2015. Eventual demand levels of up to 200 aircraft have been floated, in order to replace Russia's 300 existing SU-24s. The determining factor is likely to be the SU-34's prioritization amidst Russia's rearmament program, which is being fueled by its hydrocarbon exports and distribution hammerlocks amidst a global scenario of rising demand and rising prices. RIA Novosti put the plane's mission simply: "The Su-34 is meant to deliver a sufficiently large ordnance load to a predetermined area, hit the target accurately and take evasive action against pursuing enemy planes." Other reports have gone further, stating that the plane is also meant to be able to handle enemy fighters in combat is required. Given its base platform characteristics, it would likely match up well against many of America's "teen series" aircraft. The SU-34 is also referred to as the "SU-32" by Sukhoi, and its characteristics reportedly include:

* 45.1 tonne maximum takeoff weight.

* 8 tonne ordnance load. Air Force Technology adds that this is distributed on 10 hardpoints, which can accomodate precision-guided weapons as well as R-73/AA-11 Archer and R-77/AA-12 'AMRAAMSKI' missiles. The aircraft is also armed with a 30mm GSh-301 gun and 180 rounds.

* AL-31FM1 engines built by the Moscow-based Salyut Company generate a thrust of up to 13.5 metric tons (over 29,000 pounds) and have a 1,000-hour service life in between repairs. Subsequent reports indictae that more powerful AL-41 engines may be fitted in future.

* Maximum speed Mach 1.8 at altitude.

* 3,000 km range with standard drop tanks, extendable to over 4,000 km with the help of additional drop tanks. This makes deployment to locations like Tajikistan much easier, because intermediate airfields in Russia can easily be closed by bad weather. The SU-34 can also refuel in mid-air. (Note, however, that typical "ground hugging" attack flight profiles will shorten their range considerably – Air Force Technology lists it as around 600 km on internal fuel, or 1,150 km with external fuel tanks.)

* Can fly in TERCOM (Terrain Contour Matching) mode for low-level flight, and relies on software to execute a number of other difficult maneuvers. The front horizontal empennage behind the xxxxpit is designed to help it handle the air pockets found in high speed flight at low altitudes.

* A 17mm armored xxxxpit like the SU-25 Frogfoot ground-attack jet.

* 2 parallel K-36DM ejector seats, with a small aisle in between. The ejector seats can be activated at any speed and altitude, even when the plane is on the ground.

Other reports add additional details, and can be found in the "Additional Readings" section below. One particular item of note is the Leninets B004 phased array multimode X-band radar, which interleaves terrain-following radar and other modes. The US B-1B's stealth bomber's AN/APQ-164 phased array uses a similar approach. Performance is claimed to be of 200-250 km against large surface targets, ground mapping capability of 75-150 km, and GMTI moving target tracking to 30 km. Detection performance against fighter sized aerial targets is claimed to be 90 km. A jamming variant of the SU-32/34 has reportedly been discussed in the Indian and Russian trade press, with an L175V / KS418 high power jamming pod that is supposedly under development.

Source: http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/...ighters-02595/

Russia launches full-scale production of new-generation warplane

Russia has started full-scale production of the Su-34 Fullback fighter bomber at a Siberian aircraft plant, plane maker Sukhoi said on Wednesday. A company spokesman said up to 20 fighters could now be assembled simultaneously at the Novosibirsk Aviation Production Association (NAPO), but did not specify how many would be built each year. The $36 million Su-34 fighter-bomber is a two-seat strike aircraft equipped with twin AL-31MF afterburning turbojet engines. It is designed to deliver high-precision strikes on heavily-defended targets under any weather conditions, day or night, and fields weaponry that includes a 30mm GSh-301 cannon, up to 12 Alamo or Archer AAMs, ASMs, and bombs. Designed by Sukhoi, the Su-34s will replace the Su-24 Fencer frontline bombers. Experts said the new bomber has the potential to become the top plane in its class for years to come. To date only a handful of pre-production models have been built. In mid-2004 Sukhoi announced that low-rate production was commencing and that initial aircraft would reach squadron service around 2008. In March 2006, Russia's then Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov announced that the government had purchased only two Su-34s for delivery in 2006, and planned to have a complete air regiment of 24 Su-34s operational by the end of 2010. A total of 58 aircraft will be purchased by 2015 to replace some of 300 Su-24s, which are undergoing modernization to prolong their service life.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080109/95829755.html

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russia must be a naval power - Medvedev

Russia needs to be revived as a naval power, Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said. "One must revive the navy so that Russia is a naval power," Medvedev said at a meeting with crewmembers of the Kapitan Morgun shipping vessel in Murmansk on Friday. "We were respected when we were naval power," Medvedev said. "Such work is slower than one would like it to be, but this is the first time in the past 20 years that we have tackled it," Medvedev said.

Source: http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/politics/...issue=11943622

Dmitrii Medvedev meets High North challenges in Murmansk

During his visit to Murmansk today, First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitrii Medvedev said that the Russian Navy will have to be strengthened. –Russia must be a great military power at sea, he stressed. Mr. Medvedev, who today started his presidential campaign in the regions with a visit to Murmansk, admitted that the strengthening of the fleet might proceed slower than what is desired. However, he stressed that the reinforced focus on the Navy is the first in 20 years. In a meeting with the crew of the trawler “Kapitan Morgun”, the presidential hopeful was told that Norway is conducting a hostile line against Russian fishery interests. According to Rosbaltnord.ru, the crew members told Mr Medvedev that Norwegian military vessels are constantly at sea and that they are “demonstrating power”. They felt more secure at sea earlier when they knew that they could get support from Russian vessels at any time. -The Navy vessel are not present because we simply do not have them, Mr Medvedev said, and repeated that a modernization of the fleet is a priority. Dmitrii Medveded is on a tour to 11-regions, many of them in Northwest Russia as part of his bid for the Russian presidency. Also Arkhangelsk Oblast and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug will be visited.

Source: http://www.barentsobserver.com/index...ir=1&noredir=1

In related news:

Nato warned by Russia's new envoy

Russia's new ambassador to Nato, Dmitry Rogozin, has begun his job by warning the alliance not to ensure its own security at the expense of others. In a newspaper interview, he said Moscow's decision to suspend its role in a key European arms treaty was a liberation from "colonial dependency". Russia halted its participation last month in the 1990 Conventional Forces in Europe treaty. Mr Rogozin is well known in Russia for his outspoken nationalist views.

Hawkish politician

Mr Rogozin's appointment by President Putin on Thursday was seen in Moscow as a reflection of Russia's more assertive stance towards the West. A former head of the anti-immigration Russian Motherland party, Mr Rogozin has previously warned the Kremlin that Nato poses a threat and he has called for Russia to stand firm against independence for Kosovo. Mr Rogozin has also served as Russia's representative to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (Pace), a multi-national Strasbourg-based human rights body. In 2005, Russia's Supreme Court banned Motherland from taking part in elections to the Moscow City Council. The court ruled that a campaign advertisement in which Mr Rogozin appeared was racist.

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7183202.stm

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Anti-terror Exercises in Armenia not Directed Against Azerbaijan: Organizer

The Anti-terror exercises of the Organization of Collective Security Treaty (OCST) "Frontier 2008", to be held in the territory of Armenia in the spring of 2008, are not directed against the Azerbaijan, Nikolay Bordyuzh , the Secretary General of the OCST, said in a news conference, РБК reports. "We will make every effort to make Azerbaijan understand, that these exercises are not directed against it”, he stressed. Moreover, these exercises are of ‘command-headquarters’ nature and it means that the tremendous movements are not planned during the maneuvers. Bordyuzh also said that "Frontier -2008" -is completely of the “anti-terror nature". At the same time, he voiced his hope that the Azerbaijan will not negatively reply to these exercises, so that its relations with Armenia does not worsen. The Observers from Azerbaijan will be invited for these exercises. The OCST is a military political union, established by the former Soviet countries, on the basis of the Collective Security Treaty signed on 15 May 1992. The Treaty is prolonged after every 5 years. The OSCT unites Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan.

Source: http://news.trendaz.com/index.shtml?...109861&lang=EN

[skhara]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Is that a picture from the Russia-China wargame?

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Is that a picture from the Russia-China wargame?

Yes, it's from the first joint military exercise that took place between Russia and China under the official title of "combating terrorism." It was named "Peace Mission 2007." The joint exercise was sponsored by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Russia and China being the two main members. Until this exercise took place last year the SCO was mainly looked upon by the West as an economic forum for select Asian nations. However, after the exercise it became quite obvious to political analysts that the organization in question had evolved into something much more. Perhaps we are seeing the preliminary stages of an NATO type alliance lead by China and Russia. Nevertheless, "Peace Mission 2007" was quite an impressive show of force by two of the most powerful nations on earth. According to the cited news report something similar but on a lesser scale will take place in Armenia this spring.

Some pictures from "Peace Mission 2007" for your viewing pleasure.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russian cruiser heads for the Mediterranean

The missile cruiser The Moskva has set sail for military exercises in the Mediterranean Sea. The mission is part of Russia’s programme of reviving its navy for the 21st century. First commissioned in 1983, it is the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The ‘Moskva’, former ‘Slava’ is an 11,490 tonne vessel. It has just embarked on a new mission and is sailing for the Mediterranean. Leaving the historic port of Sevastopol, it will make its way through the Bosporus strait before reaching an undisclosed destination somewhere near Malta. Here the cruiser will join the Northern Fleet for training exercises, as the Russian Navy renews its military patrol of the Mediterranean. The move is supported by First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Mevedev, who has called for Russia’s maritime power to be restored. “We hope for the best. This is the first time since the Soviet Union that such mission will be conducted on such a scale,” a sailor says. The composition of the fleet is extensive. An aircraft carrier, anti-submarine ships, more than 40 planes and ten helicopters will support the ‘Moskva’ missile cruiser. “The cruiser will carry out two missile shooting exercises. The first shooting - form its main striking system. The second will be an anti-aircraft shooting. The cruiser is fully equipped and ready for exercises and we hope it will perform successfully,” said Aleksandr Klyotskov, Black Sea Fleet Commander. The Moskva will drop anchor in crowded sea and close-by will be another dominant naval power - the U.S. Sixth Fleet. But the Moskva won’t be there for long, next stop is the Atlantic.

Source: http://www.russiatoday.ru/news/news/19612

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

I think the following geopolitical forecast for 2008 by Stratfor is a must read. Although it has some weak areas, such as wishful thinking, this forecast, or geopolitical analysis if you will, paints a very clear picture, a picture that involves an eventual confrontation between the Russian Federation and the West, perhaps by proxies. Putting aside Russia's the impressive momentum forward as of late, Russia will need to at one time or another beat-up on someone. Moscow needs to spill blood to make a strong political statement. Although it ruthlessly crushed the western backed Chechen insurgency, Russia has not yet been ready to project its military power outside its borders. Perhaps the time for that is nearing. Moscow has embarked on a longterm agenda to modernize its ballistic missile forces, its air defenses and, more importantly, it is once again actively presenting itself as a geopolitical factor upon the high seas, the undisputed realm of American might. Nevertheless, all the indicator's are here, there will be a clash between Russia and the West, it's only a matter of time. Most probably this will come to pass in the Balkans and/or the Caucasus.

Armenian

************************************************** ********

Annual Forecast 2008: Beyond the Jihadist War -- Former Soviet Union

Russia enters 2008 in the strongest geopolitical position it has known since the Cold War’s end. The rampant decay of its military has largely been halted, new weapons systems are beginning to be brought on line, the country is flush with petrodollars, its debt has vanished, the Chechen insurgency has been suppressed, the central government has all but eliminated domestic opposition, the regime is popular at home, and the U.S. military is too locked down to make more than a token gesture to block any Russian advances.

Yet Russia faces challenges to match its power. Chinese pipelines to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan (to be constructed in 2008) threaten to divert the energy that until now could only flow northward and serve Russian purposes. NATO and the European Union occupy Russia’s entire western horizon and are flirting with expanding their memberships. Rising defense modernizations in Asia are forcing Russia to deal with two military fronts — something at which Moscow never really succeeded during Soviet times. And the European Union plans to separate Kosovo from Serbia, making a mockery of the Kremlin’s efforts to keep the province attached. Finally, while Russia’s military is improving, it still faces massive challenges — ranging from a bloated and unskilled conscription force to mass corruption within the officer corps that siphons away a sizeable minority of resources the Kremlin is allocating to the military.

If Russia is to secure its long-term future in the face of a rising China and ever-expanding EU and NATO, 2008 must be the year of action. The former Soviet Union region will have three main developments in 2008. First, the consolidation that began in Russia’s energy sector in 2003 will culminate. This will be the year that state giants Rosneft and Gazprom swallow up — whether formally or through “alliances” — most of the remaining independent players in the country’s energy industry. This is being done not just to solidify central control — although that is a leading reason — but also to strengthen what has become Russia’s most reliable foreign policy tool. The year 2007, however, could well have been the high point in Russia’s ability to influence Europe with control of its energy policies. In 2008 a number of natural gas import projects will begin operation in Western Europe, reducing that region’s dependency on Russian energy and allowing the Western European states to be more dismissive of Russian interests.

Second, and far more important, the Russians need a defining confrontation with the West. Russian power is at a relative peak, and American power at a relative low. It is a temporary circumstance certain to invert as the United States militarily extricates itself from Iraq, and one that Russia must exploit if it seeks to avoid replicating the geopolitical retreat of the 1990s. By “confrontation” we do not necessarily mean a war — simply a clash that starkly lays bare Russia’s strengths against Western weaknesses. This requires adjusting EU and NATO attitudes so they both deeply consider Russian national interests in their decision-making. The Kremlin must publicly display that it can make the West back down. Success would adjust perceptions of pro-Western forces throughout the former Soviet Union and significantly boost Russia’s efforts to expand its influence. Failure would entrench the opposite.

There are a number of places where Russia might create such a decisive challenge, but the most logical place is Kosovo. While the West is prepared to rubberstamp Kosovo’s independence, there is little of military, economic or political value there for the West. For Russia — which has publicly invested much political capital in opposing Kosovar independence — European success would be more than a slap in the face. It would undermine Russian power at a fundamental level and demonstrate that even the European Union — whose unity on issues of foreign policy is shallow and whose military capability as a coherent whole is negligible — can simply ignore Moscow. Moscow must prevent this from happening, and it is likely that some sternly quiet conversations with the Europeans will be successful at (yet again) pushing back a final decision on Kosovo. Simply put, for the Western world, Kosovo is not even remotely worth an escalating conflict with Russia.

There are many other options, of course. The former pro-Western Soviet republic of Georgia, long a thorn in Moscow’s side, has two secessionist regions that rely on Russia for their economic and military existence. Russia could easily absorb them outright and thus break the myth that American protection in the Caucasus is sustainable. Gazprom could swallow up Russian-British joint oil venture TNK-BP, destroying billions in U.K. investment in a heartbeat. Union with Belarus would return the Red Army to the European frontier and turn the security framework of Eurasia inside-out overnight. And once again there is Ukraine, which just finally elected the anti-Russian Yulia Timoshenko as prime minister. Timoshenko has sworn to counter Russian influence in Ukraine’s energy sector and push back against Russia’s natural gas price hikes. The year 2008 could look eerily similar to the end of 2005, when Gazprom cut natural gas supplies to Ukraine, hitting Europe particularly hard. Then again, Russia could use the Ukraine conflict as an excuse to cut supplies to Europe anyway.

However, the third trend of 2008 is a monumental obstacle to Russia achieving its goals: an internal clan war. After years of turning Russia’s various factions against each other, Putin has finally secured control for his inner circle. But now that inner circle is tearing itself apart. For the most part, this is what good governance looks like for an authoritarian leader — Putin constantly has to arrange for internal feuds to keep the various power brokers from setting their sights on him. But this has led to fratricide across the Russian landscape, with the most pitched battles being fought in the justice, defense and energy spheres, bleeding away energy that could otherwise be used to further Russia’s international agenda. There is one final problem that Russia faces, and at present the Kremlin is unwilling even to admit that problem exists. China is stealing Central Asia, building a network of infrastructures that will make it more attractive for the Central Asian states to integrate with China than to use Soviet-era links to Russia.

The key is Kazakhstan, the only Central Asian state to share a border with Russia. Should Astana shift into China’s sphere, all of the other Central Asian states not only will find it in their best economic interests to follow, but also will enjoy the buffer of the world’s sixth-largest country (in terms of land area) between them and an angry Russia. It is nearly certain that Russian diplomats are going to have some very direct heart-to-hearts with their Kazakh counterparts, and we do not rule out some accidental polonium poisonings in Astana in 2008. Failing that, this could well go down in history as the year Moscow “lost” Central Asia. The Central Asian problem is about more than simply resources. While Russian diplomats have long waxed philosophic about a multipolar world in which Russia and China team up to reduce U.S. influence, the truth is that not only do Moscow and Beijing not trust each other — each would quickly sell the other one up the river in order to cozy up to the United States. Russia’s need to pave a path to confrontation to the West almost dictates that China will attempt to be the best friend Washington could ever have. Russia will have to play hardball to keep Central Asia, and China will likely have U.S. economic and political assistance in countering.

Source: http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/ann...r_soviet_union

In related news:

U.S. May Not Feel Super, but It Is Still World's Sole Superpower

Troubled and uncertain? Yes. But whether we or the rest of the world like it or not, the U.S. is still the top economic and military dog. The United States is reeling. Fears of a recession are growing and the stock market is off to one of its worst starts ever. U.S. foreign policy is in disarray. Washington is paralyzed by gridlock. The number of Americans saying the country is on the wrong track is approaching 70% -- even higher in some polls. Is America losing its way at home and abroad? The private intelligence firm Stratfor, which assesses the state of the world in a series of detailed annual reports, says worried Americans aren't taking a long enough and realistic enough view.

Stratfor says it does these net assessments by "being stupid" -- simply looking at things as they are without any preconceived notions, much as it would examine the status of any foreign country. "The operative term for the United States is 'huge.' The size of its economy and the control of the world's oceans are the two pillars of American power, and they are intimately connected," Stratfor says. "So long as the United States has more than 25% of the world's GDP and dominates the oceans, what the world thinks of it, or what it thinks of itself, is of little consequence. Power is power and those two simple, obvious facts trump all sophisticated theorizing."

The report examines both the economy and U.S. foreign policy in detail and finds various weaknesses and challenges -- but also plenty of plusses. While there have been numerous setbacks in Iraq, the United States has prevented an Islamic alliance from forming by creating, even if it was unintentional, a larger and more violent split between Sunni and Shiite (also known as Shia) Muslims. Stratfor warns American attention on Iraq and Afghanistan must not prevent it from paying attention to the growing power of Russia, although "the Russians have a long way to go before they would pose a significant threat to American interests."

Stratfor says a recession soon is possible but unlikely. "What we are seeing now is economic growth, stable interest rates and equity markets, and profound anxiety over the future of the financial system. That is not how an economy looks six months or a year before a depression. Those who believe that major economic disaster is just around the corner have acted on that belief and the markets have already discounted that belief."

Source: http://www.kiplinger.com/businessres...8-strafor.html

Stratfor, short for Strategic Forecasting Inc., is the world’s leading private intelligence company. Founded in 1996, Stratfor delivers to its clients real-time intelligence, analysis and forecasts on geopolitical, economic, security and public policy issues.