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Armenian scenario

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  • Armenian scenario

    Armenian scenario



    On February 19, a head of state will be elected in what is for us a friendly and very important country. The elections in Armenia are very similar to those Russia will hold in March. The successor of the current president will run for the top position; he is being opposed by representatives of the former government, and his long standing opponents. As in Russia, the current government's nominee - Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian - has every chance of success. As in Russia, the popularity of the current government in Armenia rests on economic success. When Robert Kocharian's team came to power ten years ago Armenia was in a desperate position. It had suffered several years of economic dislocation, absence of electricity and heating. Today, Armenia, a country with no energy resources or any other tangible natural resources, has one of the world's most dynamic economies. Its economy grew by 13.6% last year, one of the fastest rates in the world.

    But statistics as such are of little interest to the voters. What matters for them is how those statistics reflect their well-being. During the past year, average incomes increased by 24.7%, while inflation did not exceed the Russian old dream rate of 6%. Last year's parliamentary elections testified to serious public support for the current government. The ruling Republican Party, led by Sarkisian, together with its ally and rival Prosperous Armenia, headed by Gagik Tsarukian, received more than half of all votes and two thirds of seats in parliament. Now this alliance has shored up its power even further - at the presidential elections Tsarukian will support Sarkisian. This partnership is as hard hitting as that between Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev in Russia. The latest polls give Sarkisian 47.5% of all votes, which are likely to guarantee his victory in the first round.

    Today, Yerevan looks like an enormous construction site. The prime minister and his political consultants do not have to ponder over election scenarios - Sarkisian is travelling all around the country, and telling his compatriots about ambitious plans for spreading the gas network, road and house construction, and the eradication of poverty. He does not need a detailed program, and has drafted a short document on the consolidation of statehood and promotion of the principles of justice. Sarkisian cannot be accused of weakness or lack of experience - before heading the government, he served in various positions in security-related ministries, and his name is associated with military victories in Karabakh. Relations with Russia and the West are a big part of the election campaign. It is hard to notice anti-Russian attitudes in Armenia - Russia is associated with hope and support. But the same is true of anti-Western sentiment, which is only natural considering the existence of the influential Armenian Diaspora countries such as the United States and France. Sarkisian has a well-deserved reputation of a pro-Russian politician. He has known Putin for a long time, since he worked in CIS security-related agencies. But he is quite open to cooperation with the West, which practically eliminates the possibility of a foreign country conducting a large-scale campaign against him, as has sometimes happened in post-Soviet republics.

    In this position it will be difficult not to win. No opposition candidate stands a chance, unless the government makes the mistake of paying too much attention to them. For the time being, the most prominent rival is the recent Speaker of Parliament and close associate of the current leader Artur Bagdasarian, who the polls put in second place with 13.4% of votes. He has suddenly turned into a vociferously pro-western critic of the regime. An active participant in every recent campaign, the leader of the National Unity Party, Artashes Gegamian, is in fourth place with a rating of 4.7%. Ex-Prime Minister Vazgen Manukian, and the leader of the historical Dashnak Party Vice-Speaker of Parliament Vaan Ovannesian are well known in the country. But the biggest sensation was the decision of the first Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosian to run for the presidency. It has given not quite understandable hope to many opponents of the current government to defeat it. It is comparable to Mikhail Gorbachev running in the election race in Russia (he ran for the presidency in 1996 but with no success).

    Ter-Petrosian is trying to prove the unprovable - that he was a more successful leader than Kocharian and Sarkisian. But his compatriots have not forgotten the first half of the 1990s. Moreover, Ter-Petrosian had to resign when under Western pressure he displayed readiness to make tangible concessions on Karabakh and relations with Turkey. Such conduct is not forgiven in Armenia. It will be difficult for him to prove his good attitude to Russia. It was he who shut down all the Russian schools in the country. Half of the voters will not support him under any circumstances, and he can hardly hope for more than third place and 7% of votes.

    Could the consolidation of the opposition change the situation before the elections? It seems unlikely, primarily because none of the opposition leaders is accepted by the others. Ter-Petrosian, who is the loudest in claiming the leadership of the opposition, is also the most resented by the others. Sarkisian's opponents will not form a political alliance. The West is not likely to support an oppositionist, either. Moreover, now that international observers have, with a few reservations, declared the elections in neighboring Georgia quite legitimate, they will find it rather difficult to give the Armenian elections a lower rating for fear of looking ridiculous. Unlike in Georgia, the elections in Armenia are being held according to schedule; TV channels have not been shut down; opposition supporters are not behind bars or in exile, nor under criminal investigation. International monitoring will be very serious - almost 300 observers in 1,923 constituencies.

    Russia would like to see Armenia a stable and dynamically developing country with a responsible government oriented towards constructive relations with it. Strategically, Sarkisian's nomination suits Moscow, which has given him support at the top level. It would be appropriate to take steps that would demonstrate our readiness to render Armenia substantial economic assistance. Regrettably, the pro-Russian forces in Armenia have been recently weakened by Moscow's decision to increase prices on gas exports. Considering our financial capabilities Russia should list Armenia as a priority recipient of its direct foreign aid. The main thing is not to overdo with the public demonstration of our support. The United States has been giving tangible assistance to Armenia for a long time. Our policymakers should consider the role Armenia could play in building relations with Georgia. For Armenia, which is under transport blockade, transit via Georgia is a lifeline. The more tense Russian-Georgian relations are, the more this lifeline is threatened.

    Source: http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080207/98622236.html
    Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

    Նժդեհ


    Please visit me at my Heralding the Rise of Russia blog: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

  • #2
    Re: Armenian scenario

    Please get the various pertinent articles posted in this thread concerning Levon Petrosian out to as many people as you can. All you have to do is email individuals the link to the various posts found in this thread.

    Example:
    Armenia Assaulted by Orange Agents:
    http://forum.armenianclub.com/showpo...&postcount=484

    There is a relatively well organized and well funded campaign out of southern California and several English language websites that have been working towards discrediting the Armenian Government, inciting unrest in the Armenian Republic and encouraging anti-Artsakh/Nagorno Karabagh tensions. The harsh realities of the treasonous criminal Levon Petrosian needs to be disseminated within the Armenian public. I ask you to mail the above links to as many individuals, embassies, news papers, websites, organizations and churches as you can.

    These are some the websites that have been partaking in this bloody coup attempt:

    Hetq: http://www.hetq.am/arm/

    Armenianow: http://www.armenianow.com/?lng=eng

    A1 Plus: http://www.a1plus.am/amu/

    Send these sites your messages of anger and disgust. Let's show these mother xxxxers that not all of us are deaf, dumb and blind to what they are attempting to do.

    If you are upset with what's going on, get your asses active!!!
    Last edited by Armenian; 03-04-2008, 01:44 PM.
    Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

    Նժդեհ


    Please visit me at my Heralding the Rise of Russia blog: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Armenian scenario

      Azeris have attempted to take advantage of the political turmoil in Yerevan by mounting an attack against Armenian lines in Artsakh. I was made aware of this incident the very next day after it had occurred by a friend who has a nephew serving on the front lines in Artsakh. The following is an excerpt of the email he sent me two days ago:

      Im qroj txan Artsach-um e tsaraium, asum e, ais amenits ogtvel en porzel turqer@, es 2 or@ mi 30 metr dirqer@ araj en berel, 3 hogu el spanel en zorqerits. Ais ameni mexq@ ankaskats Robertinn e, vor es 10 tari HHsh-i verj@ chtvets, ev drants amboxj banak@, vor mijin oxaki pashtonnerum ein, aintex el mnatsel ein, esor irents tsuits tvetsin. Levon-in pahox Grzo anunov multimilloner@, vor asel er 1 billion talis em es sharzman@, ir poxer@ vastakel er Levoni zamanak Artsach-i krvi hamar havaqvats gumarner@ juratsnelov, u minchev hima lav aprum er, voch te bantum. Baits chvaxes, amen inch lav klini. Sra lav koxm@ na e, vor uzen te chuzen, HHShi kadrerits kazatven, ham el irents hamar das klini, mi qich zoxovrdi masin el mtatsen.
      Translation:

      My sister's son, currently serving in Artsakh, said that Turks (Azeris) have attempt to gain from all this. During the last two days they have brought their positions 30 meters forward and have killed three of our soldiers. Without doubt this is Kocharyan's fault because he did not eliminate the HHSH party during the last ten years... Levon's keeper, Grzo, the multimillionaire who had said I will give one billion dollars to this movement, made his money during Levon's time in office by steeling money that was being collected for the Artsakh war effort... But do not be afraid, everything is going to be well...


      *****************************

      Azeri armed forces attempted to seize Armenian positions


      Azerbaijan made an attempt to make use of the domestic tension in Armenia to provoke a ceasefire violation in Mardakert direction, RA Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian told reporters in Yerevan. “The Azeri units tried to advance through the Armenian territory and seize a post but were rebuffed. Several Armenian servicemen were injured, 2 Azeri soldiers were killed. The skirmish is going on but not so violently. We have already sent a notice to OSCE CiO’s special representative Andrzej Kasprzyk and hope that the situation will settle down soon,” he said. “If someone in Baku hopes to gain psychological dividends, thinking that we are too concentrated on our internal affairs, he is deeply mistaken,” the Armenian Minister emphasized.

      Source: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=25215

      *****************************

      Levon and company as well as their supporters can never be forgiven.

      The entire bloody fiasco in Armenia has been more-or-less a battle between Armenian whores in Armenia and Armenians from Artsakhs. If anyone does not believe me just read Levin Petrostein's speeches,or listen to his divisive rhetoric, they are all meant to divide the people into two warring segments - Armenians and Artsakhtsis. What's more, they are all mean to abandon every single national interests in the name of appeasement. This movement may be packaged as a so-called "democracy" movement but it's fully serving the interests of Washington and Ankara.

      To hell with Levon. I want to see him and his team DEAD.
      Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

      Նժդեհ


      Please visit me at my Heralding the Rise of Russia blog: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Armenian scenario

        Comrades, this is a historic time. Please, do your part. The usurpers in Armenia are well organized and they are getting their spiritual and financial support from Washington and Ankara. Get active.

        I have been calling for a civil war in Armenia not because I 'wanted' it but because I knew they would initiate one sooner-or-later. The best defense is an offense. We needed to cure this cancer before it manifested itself. When our security forces kill few hundred of these low lives in the streets they will learn their lesson. All nations have had to do this at one point or another in their political evolution. Nothing bad will happen to the Armenian state if they ruthlessly crush this rebellion. If anything, Armenia will gain international respect. If anything, Azeris, Turks and Americans will realize that a revolution will 'not' work in Armenia.

        Levon and his team need to be executed, there is no other ways about it. The low lives in the street need to be beaten bloody.


        Western backed media outlets - Hetq, A1 Plus, Armeniannow, Radio Liberty, need to be exposed as tools of western intelligence services. Treasonous foreign filth like Onnik Krikorian and Richard Giragosian need to be finally exposed as tools for western intelligence services.

        Get active. Contact the Armenian Embassy in Washington and express your support for the government. Contract the Armenian Mission at the UN in New York and express your support for the government. Contact the Armenian Council in Los Angeles and express your support for the government.

        Demand the punishment of Levon Petrosian and his team. Demand the return of law and order to the Armenian state
        Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

        Նժդեհ


        Please visit me at my Heralding the Rise of Russia blog: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Armenian scenario

          THE PRE-CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN ARMENIA, HOWEVER THERE IS NO REASON FOR "VELVET REVOLUTION"


          Pre-conditions are present in Armenia, however, there is no reason for "velvet revolution", said member of RA National Assembly, politologist Amayak Ovanessian in the interview with the correspondent of ARMINFO, commenting on the statement of editor-in-chief of Russian Service of BBC Konstantin Eggert referring to that Armenia will be the first state after the Ukraine where the "velvet revolution" will take place. A. Ovanessian noted that the hard social-economic conditions of the people, the falsification of results of presidential and parliamentary elections' in 2003, as well as the high level of corruption and shadow economy could be called as pre-conditions for implementation of "velvet revolution" in Armenia. The only fact that in Armenia the "velvet revolution" have not taken place yet is explained only with the weakness of Armenian opposition. However, the post-soviet states bear a great resemblance to each other and processes occurred in these countries, on the principle of communicating vessels, "flow" from one state into another, noted A. Ovanessian. "If the level of democracy and social welfare in the post-soviet states is high enough, George Soros with his money never can do a revolution there. It is not necessary to underestimate the factor of people ever",- Armenian deputy empathized.

          Source: http://felist.com/archive/media.armi.../10232035.html
          Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

          Նժդեհ


          Please visit me at my Heralding the Rise of Russia blog: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Armenian scenario

            Organizers of unrest in Yerevan will be punished - presidential spokesman


            The people who ordered, orchestrated and took part in recent mass unrest in Yerevan will be punished, presidential press secretary Viktor Sogomonian said at a press conference on Tuesday. "Levon Ter-Petrosian and his team, and all those who provoked and organized mass unrest and called for overthrowing the incumbent authorities will be punished," Sogomonian said. "Especially those who provoked unrest," he added. The situation in the city is returning to normal, he said. Asked about the possibility of a dialogue with the radical opposition and a possible format of such dialogue, Sogomonian said he did not see a possibility for such dialogue now. "Before those events took place, there were chances for dialogue. The opposition said more than once that it ruled out the possibility of dialogue with the authorities. I do not see such an opportunity now. Can anything really be discussed after what happened?" Sogomonian said. The unsanctioned opposition rallies had lasted for ten days, he said. There were armed people among those who incited the unrest, while police were unarmed, Sogomonian said. "International institutions should know that there was no excessive use of force. The Armenian political leadership ordered that violence be avoided as much as possible and that the use of force be minimized," he said.

            Source: http://www.interfax.com/3/371334/news.aspx
            Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

            Նժդեհ


            Please visit me at my Heralding the Rise of Russia blog: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Armenian scenario

              Originally posted by Armenian View Post
              Azeris have attempted to take advantage of the political turmoil in Yerevan by mounting an attack against Armenian lines in Artsakh. I was made aware of this incident the very next day after it had occurred by a friend who has a nephew serving on the front lines in Artsakh. The following is an excerpt of the email he sent me two days ago:



              Translation:

              My sister's son, currently serving in Artsakh, said that Turks (Azeris) have attempt to gain from all this. During the last two days they have brought their positions 30 meters forward and have killed three of our soldiers. Without doubt this is Kocharyan's fault because he did not eliminate the HHSH party during the last ten years... Levon's keeper, Grzo, the multimillionaire who had said I will give one billion dollars to this movement, made his money during Levon's time in office by steeling money that was being collected for the Artsakh war effort... But do not be afraid, everything is going to be well...


              *****************************

              Azeri armed forces attempted to seize Armenian positions


              Azerbaijan made an attempt to make use of the domestic tension in Armenia to provoke a ceasefire violation in Mardakert direction, RA Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian told reporters in Yerevan. “The Azeri units tried to advance through the Armenian territory and seize a post but were rebuffed. Several Armenian servicemen were injured, 2 Azeri soldiers were killed. The skirmish is going on but not so violently. We have already sent a notice to OSCE CiO’s special representative Andrzej Kasprzyk and hope that the situation will settle down soon,” he said. “If someone in Baku hopes to gain psychological dividends, thinking that we are too concentrated on our internal affairs, he is deeply mistaken,” the Armenian Minister emphasized.

              Source: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=25215

              *****************************

              Levon and company as well as their supporters can never be forgiven.

              The entire bloody fiasco in Armenia has been more-or-less a battle between Armenian whores in Armenia and Armenians from Artsakhs. If anyone does not believe me just read Levin Petrostein's speeches,or listen to his divisive rhetoric, they are all meant to divide the people into two warring segments - Armenians and Artsakhtsis. What's more, they are all mean to abandon every single national interests in the name of appeasement. This movement may be packaged as a so-called "democracy" movement but it's fully serving the interests of Washington and Ankara.

              To hell with Levon. I want to see him and his team DEAD.
              Your country is in chaos now, therefore your new president struggled to alter agenda so he didn't preserve the ceasefire...

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Armenian scenario

                Originally posted by Kanki
                Your country is in chaos now, therefore your new president struggled to alter agenda so he didn't preserve the ceasefire...
                The new president has yet to take office, so thats not a good assessment of the situation on your part.

                And the only side that has repeatedly claimed that they will break the ceasefire is Aliyev and his group, by declaring every week for the past 10 years that they are going to "liberate" Karabagh. So that should be a clue for you as to who might have broken the ceasefire.

                And even if a bad domestic situation was the only criteria for breaking a ceasefire, as you seem to imply, then Azerbaijan would still be more likely to do so as Lezgins, Talysh and all other minorities have been miserable under Azeri rule, not to mention the 700,000 refugees who have not been housed after 14 years, even though the economy grew by 32% just in the last year. Even many Azeris are complaining of being left behind because of government corruption in this period of economic growth in their single-industry economy.

                But as I said, look at who has been talking about breaking the ceasefire every week for the past 10 years.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Armenian scenario

                  Originally posted by Kanki View Post
                  Your country is in chaos now, therefore your new president struggled to alter agenda so he didn't preserve the ceasefire...
                  Trojan Horse, our country is not in chaos, our country was assaulted by a attempted coup backed by agents that have ties to your government, but now the plot was exposed and all agents are going to be severly punished. In all this what is funny is the lengths you, Trojan Horse, go to portray Azerbaijan in "positive light". The reality is that it is not in the interest of both Armenia and Azerbaijan to close borders, it is not in their interests to fight over Artsahk. Like Kosovo, your government should support the independence of populations on Artsahk to pursue their rights to indepedence. If they choose to join Armenia or Azerbaijan, it is their right to choose.

                  You, Trojan Horse, attempting to persuade the audience of aggression on behalf the Armenian government against Azerbaijan as a attempt to quall things at a home is idiotic at best. Another war will severly destroy the economy in the region, meaning, less money in the pockets of Moscow and Ankara. The Artsahk solution should be dealt with diplomacy and the right of the populations living on Artsahk, whether Armenain or Swahili, should be determined by the populations living there, in this case, the Armenians. The reality is Artsahk has no value to Azerbaijan strategically, but for Armenians Artsahk is question of principle and survival. The Armenian side requires Artsahk for the stability and territorial integrity of Armenia. The events that transpired in the early 20th century are directly related to the events in Artsahk, essentially, the historically anticidents stemming from the various aggression perpretrated on the Armenians during the Ottoman Empire and the following events post Ottoman Empire have ingrained in our psyche the mistrust of the Turk. Thus, both morally and politically, it is in the right of the Armenian people to claim those lands as ours and it is in the rights of those populations to claim their indepedence from the Azeri government. We have seen, all to well, that all governments in the Transcaucus do not have the maturity nor the civility to defend human rights other than Armenia. In Georgia the Armenian populations are mistreated, likewise in Azerbaijan, the populations were mistreated. Therefore, it is in our best interest to maintain the status quo irrespective of the international communities opinions regarding Artsahk, the bottomline is the only opinion that counts is the opinion of Armenians and most importantly, the Armenians living in Artsahk.

                  With that being said, it should known that the Armenain government is no in the business of war, it is in the business of state building. It is not in their interest to breach the ceasefire and furthermore, the idea that the "ceasefire was breached" only recently is ludicris, the Azeri government has numerious times breached the ceasefire, how many of these times did the Turkish government and citizenry such as yourself, Trojan Horse, attempt to denounce such events? Never, not once, the reality is that again, the Turkish double standard has reared its ugly head even here. If Azerbaijan breached the ceasefire it would be "swiped underneath the rug", but supposing Armenia did breach the ceasefire, you and your government would be the first to condemn it internationally, thus, hinting again at the Turkish double standard that exists in world politics. So, with all due respect, please, don't attempt to "persuade" the audience of your "non bias", when in fact, your bias resonates from each word you have written and on each syllabel being read, clearly, we know where your interest are and politics is a measure of interest.
                  Last edited by Virgil; 03-08-2008, 03:10 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Armenian scenario

                    Originally posted by ArmSurvival View Post
                    The new president has yet to take office, so thats not a good assessment of the situation on your part.

                    And the only side that has repeatedly claimed that they will break the ceasefire is Aliyev and his group, by declaring every week for the past 10 years that they are going to "liberate" Karabagh. So that should be a clue for you as to who might have broken the ceasefire.

                    And even if a bad domestic situation was the only criteria for breaking a ceasefire, as you seem to imply, then Azerbaijan would still be more likely to do so as Lezgins, Talysh and all other minorities have been miserable under Azeri rule, not to mention the 700,000 refugees who have not been housed after 14 years, even though the economy grew by 32% just in the last year. Even many Azeris are complaining of being left behind because of government corruption in this period of economic growth in their single-industry economy.

                    But as I said, look at who has been talking about breaking the ceasefire every week for the past 10 years.
                    Yalla, you are getting to the heart of the matter, double standard, there exists one, the world is going to xxxx because of it. Once you see the double standard, you see the truth.

                    Comment

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