Birth rate in Armenia

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

lol so much truth, thinking Armenia is the worst place on earth has become the national pastime
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...type=3&theater

Anyway, Armenia's real problem isn't emigration as much as the fertility rate, though both can be improved with economic improvement. The fertility rate was steadily rising until 2014 when it hit 1.7 but it's dropped to 1.6 the last two years thanks to the Russian recession. The low fertility rate hadn't hit us as much so far because the generation that was having kids was the very large 1980's generation. However the 90's generation is much smaller, and we can't afford the same situation.

By whom?

If the answer is the government then the people have every right to complain about the government.

If the answer is not the government then we better find who, because we are running out of time.

PS We cannot be at the mercy of the winds !!!

[armnuke]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

By whom?

If the answer is the government then the people have every right to complain about the government.

If the answer is not the government then we better find who, because we are running out of time.

PS We cannot be at the mercy of the winds !!!

- the government for being egoistic, corrupt, and backward.

- the people for their lack of political maturity.

- who's taking 5,000 drams and voting again? You and me? I dont think so.

- people like Sasna tsrer are also to be blamed. Instead of educating the people to develope a sane political idiology, theyre acting like people would do Mogadishu.

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

lol so much truth, thinking Armenia is the worst place on earth has become the national pastime
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...type=3&theater

Anyway, Armenia's real problem isn't emigration as much as the fertility rate, though both can be improved with economic improvement. The fertility rate was steadily rising until 2014 when it hit 1.7 but it's dropped to 1.6 the last two years thanks to the Russian recession. The low fertility rate hadn't hit us as much so far because the generation that was having kids was the very large 1980's generation. However the 90's generation is much smaller, and we can't afford the same situation.

I remain less optimistic about the economy fixing the birth rate. I think I've read it needs to go over 2.1 for growth. But anyway, the reason I'm pessimistic is that all you need to do is look at the Baltics where the economy is supposedly doing great for post-USSR standards but the birth rates are even worse than Armenia. Western Europe where the economies are great have horrible birth rates and only sustain population growth through immigration and Muslims. Sure, the economy can affect the birth rate, logically people that are better off can plan more children because they can afford it. But that's not what is happening in Europe. I suspect this issue is largely a cultural one and needs to be addressed primarily as such. Take Muslims. Their countries are often dirt poor yet it doesn't stop them from popping minimum 4 children (sometimes per wife but polygamy is kinda rare in post-USSR Muslim countries). You can see this divide very clearly when comparing Armenia & Georgia vs Azerbaijan. Or Central Asian countries vs other post-USSR countries.

Armenians are in the European sphere in terms of culture and we will most likely fall in line like the rest of them. We can slow down the bleeding with the government handing out fixed benefits/incentives to boost the population, like in Artsakh where they offer thousands for every 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th... child. Build more day cares, kindergartens, schools, clinics that deal with infertility, maker smokers' lives difficult so people quit the habit and so on. But I believe we need to ultimately find a way to resist the European mentality of 1-2 children per family and follow our own path. Perhaps the church can encourage large families, I don't know.

Reminded me of this ad by Denmark government encouraging Danes to have more sex and bring more children

[Hakob]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

- the government for being egoistic, corrupt, and backward.

- the people for their lack of political maturity.

- who's taking 5,000 drams and voting again? You and me? I dont think so.

- people like Sasna tsrer are also to be blamed. Instead of educating the people to develope a sane political idiology, theyre acting like people would do Mogadishu.

This is the result of 70 years of Soviet society. 70 years of suppression of any idealism and political thought. Communism was not an idealism or political thought after 1930s. It was a dogma and sistem of oppression.
The despair and hopelessness staring from Stalin continued in Brezhnev era and after and into today because of post independence governments and economy.
It is like a genetic makeup now.
But can be changed.
You need to change by injecting fresh mindset and energy. Like from 1945 repatriation brought. But making sure that those of us that go back are given chance unlike before, to flourish. Not get oppressed and pushed down like with my grandparents.
Those of you, who have moved back may think it's impossible, but every argument and communication with locals has an effect, leaves a crack or small Ray in minds.
My grandparents never stoped complaining about every bad or low thing in Armenia but they never wanted to emigrate. It was their children who did, because they had the same mindset (unlike their parents)like every local.
Some of you naively think that complaining bears despair, not the other way around(which is the real case).
But few posts back I was talking about diaspora involvement and got hushed.
There is no force or resource left in Armenia for changes that are needed. Never been for past 60 years. Country has gone from total horrors of two world wars, Stalinist era (look on North Korea to see people, mindset and the destroyed human personality) to chaos and corruption today.
But we have huge diaspora with it's human, moral, political wealth that can be used to change everything there.
As soon as I say this, people say "no diaspora controlling Armenia".
But maybe not controlling but there has to be a better way of injecting mindset and societal improvements? So far the only way was either bring your money or come live like others. We saw how enthusiastic diaspora was in early 90s and how numb it is now.
Political, social changes have to happen in Armenia to open the society. I don't mean east west, liberal or not games.
Armenia's society has to be opened up to it's diaspora, world.
The fact is, after emigrating, 100%, everybody starts missing, craving, becoming sick for Armenia. This means this feeling has to be imported and spread there by people from here. To be more caring and with political backbone.
In short. Get government to change. Change the format of diaspora Armenia relations. If not governing rights, but give diaspora rights and guarantees for their money and businesses in Armenia. Make them have better protections than what country they are coming from.
Oligarkhy is coming to a crisis. They need to be cracked.

[armnuke]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

A+ ad, loved the concept and Emma

[Haykakan]

Re: Birth rate in Armenia

Hakob you continuously hold the diaspora up on some pedestal. There are all kinds of people in the Armenian diaspora but most don't give a dam about Armenia. This is about as active as any Armenian forum regarding Armenia related topics and it is the same half dozen people making all the posts. The diasporans that are active on Armenian issues tend to concentrate on things that have little significance in regard to nation building. You talk greatly of the backwardness of the Hayastantsys while implying the diasporans are way better but that implication is utter bs! People here and pretty much everywhere else are easily duped into the divide and conquer game the elites have always used to rule over us. Just look at how pathetic we are. There are a handful of Armenians left yet we are discussing hayastantsi vs diasporan, just like our ancestors were discussing vanetsi vs mushetsi... We refuse to learn from history and because of this we will lose our homeland yet again. Unless we learn to feel and act as a single people, as a single nation, then we might as well be discussing jewelry or some other bs topic.

[armnuke]

Re: Birth rate in Armenia

Hakob you continuously hold the diaspora up on some pedestal. There are all kinds of people in the Armenian diaspora but most don't give a dam about Armenia. This is about as active as any Armenian forum regarding Armenia related topics and it is the same half dozen people making all the posts. The diasporans that are active on Armenian issues tend to concentrate on things that have little significance in regard to nation building. You talk greatly of the backwardness of the Hayastantsys while implying the diasporans are way better but that implication is utter bs! People here and pretty much everywhere else are easily duped into the divide and conquer game the elites have always used to rule over us. Just look at how pathetic we are. There are a handful of Armenians left yet we are discussing hayastantsi vs diasporan, just like our ancestors were discussing vanetsi vs mushetsi... We refuse to learn from history and because of this we will lose our homeland yet again. Unless we learn to feel and act as a single people, as a single nation, then we might as well be discussing jewelry or some other bs topic.

Cool, and those half a dozen of people on the forum don't happen to be from Armenia.
Besides, I don't blame them because they can't even speak proper English.
You don't like the diaspora because they don't fit into your views which is obedience to Russia.

[Hakob]

Re: Birth rate in Armenia

[/QUOTE]

I think, good economy can increase birth if country gets really committed to it. Big part of limiting birth is economic.
Give privileges and perks. Provide 3 years of diapers and supplies. Give a year of paid vacation

[Haykakan]

Re: Birth rate in Armenia

A good economy will not increase births. It will however stop emigration and perhaps increase immigration. To increase births you need to make having and raising children easy and affordable. Things like good affordable childcare will raise the birth rate.

[Mher]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I remain less optimistic about the economy fixing the birth rate. I think I've read it needs to go over 2.1 for growth. But anyway, the reason I'm pessimistic is that all you need to do is look at the Baltics where the economy is supposedly doing great for post-USSR standards but the birth rates are even worse than Armenia. Western Europe where the economies are great have horrible birth rates and only sustain population growth through immigration and Muslims. Sure, the economy can affect the birth rate, logically people that are better off can plan more children because they can afford it. But that's not what is happening in Europe. I suspect this issue is largely a cultural one and needs to be addressed primarily as such. Take Muslims. Their countries are often dirt poor yet it doesn't stop them from popping minimum 4 children (sometimes per wife but polygamy is kinda rare in post-USSR Muslim countries). You can see this divide very clearly when comparing Armenia & Georgia vs Azerbaijan. Or Central Asian countries vs other post-USSR countries.

Armenians are in the European sphere in terms of culture and we will most likely fall in line like the rest of them. We can slow down the bleeding with the government handing out fixed benefits/incentives to boost the population, like in Artsakh where they offer thousands for every 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th... child. Build more day cares, kindergartens, schools, clinics that deal with infertility, maker smokers' lives difficult so people quit the habit and so on. But I believe we need to ultimately find a way to resist the European mentality of 1-2 children per family and follow our own path. Perhaps the church can encourage large families, I don't know.

You are partially correct. If you look at the economic performance and fertility rate, there's certainly a correlation between the two. As an example, the fertility rate in Azerbaijan has been falling along with their economy. It reached a peak in 2011 along with their economy. Moreover all of these countries had a massive fall in the 90's in fertility rate, and they rose back up with the economies.

However, you are also right that there's a cultural competent to it. For example the Baltic states had a low birthright even before Soviet collapse, and the trend has continued. Also Georgia has had a higher fertility rate than Armenia all along, and even had so in the 1990's when Georgia was the poster child of a failed state. Of course same goes for Azerbaijan.

So I think the conclusion is that there is a cultural general trend, but it is affected by the economic situation.

You're certainly correct about the Western and European aspect, and I sincerely believe there's no such thing as staying too far from these values.

But in addition to that, I still believe an equal amount of it relies on believing in the country, believing in its economic future, and believing there's a reason to have children, and that will change with having a better government.