Follow-up commentary on Serge's speech in London.
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Analysis: Does Aliyev mean what he says? And, who was that man in London?
Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev is fond of making war rhetoric concerning settling the long-running Armenia-Azeri conflict over Nagorno Karabakh.
He made one such statement in his interview to the pan-European TV news channel EuroNews prior to his Armenian counterpart’s visit to Great Britain.
The truth is, however, that the Azeri president probably opposes war more than anyone. He understands that resuming the war would mean breaking the peace created by his father.
He inherited that peace and during the recent few years repeatedly demonstrated that he would never risk it. Aliyev junior has a clear vision of the trajectory of an Armenian shell in case of war: it’d be directly targeted at a 40-inch diameter oil pipe.
Things would take a different turn if prices for oil on the world market dropped to some drastic level. In case of such juncture of events he might start thinking of war prospects, since he would have no other means of maintaining his family position – Aliyev’s throne has an oil smell and come crisis on the world fuel market he’d have to undertake something. Meanwhile, as long as the prices are high war is completely pointless.
Why, in that case, does he speak about it so often?
It is obvious that the Azeri president is solving several issues simultaneously: first of all he is creating an image of a true patriot in front of his electorate; secondly, he is exploring international sentiment; thirdly, he is minimizing his disappointment over the possible outcome of the Armenian-Turkish negotiation process.
Every now and then his statements hit their target. Last week Chief of US National Intelligence Dennis Blair did not exclude the possibility of a new war. That statement followed one made earlier by one of the leaders of the International Crisis Group Alain Délétroz in which he said that “the war might break out any minute now”.
In the spotlight of such statements Ilham Aliyev is positioning himself as a wise politician of great but not endless patience. Aliyev’s latest statement was timed to the Armenian president’s visit to London. On the whole, relations between Baku and London are approximately like those between Yerevan and Paris, Tbilisi and Berlin.
In the early 1990s three European states divided among themselves the spheres of influence in the Caucasus: Armenia fell to France’s lot, considering the rich tradition of friendship between the two countries. Georgia went to Germany (former chief of Soviet Foreign Ministry Edward Shevardnadze's role in Germany’s reunion became the decisive factor), and oil- rich Azerbaijan became the ‘domain’ of Great Britain, British Petroleum (BP) corporation of which had been dealing with regional oil wells since before the Russian revolution.
In September 1992 Great Britain’s Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher visited Baku as BP’s representative and that’s when Azerbaijan’s ‘oil diplomacy’ started.
So, when declaring the possibility of resuming war Aliyev knew perfectly well what he was doing: Armenia’s possible counterblow at Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline would, first of all, mean a blow at British Petroleum, as 30.1 percent of the shares belongs to BP and only 25 percent to Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company.
Aliyev thought he was warning “his folks”.
Serzh Sargsyan intercepted Aliyev’s initiative in the air. Passing through Turkish airspace he sent a cable to Turkish authorities, which triggered a very strong reaction in Azerbaijan.
During his London visit President Sargsyan thrashed Azerbaijan in a manner his predecessor Robert Kocharyan used to from time to time and something he himself had never done before.
“Azerbaijan has not faced any substantial confrontation for having exceeded all the possible caps on conventional arms,” said the president in his speech at Chatham House British Royal Institute of International Affairs. “Even if not used in a war against Karabakh, the weapons Azerbaijan are stockpiling today will shoot somewhere. The only question is where and when.”
While on the topic, the President stressed that “Armenia and Karabakh have never unleashed and never will unleash a war. However, we realize that we must be ready for war in case others wish to fight.”
“The truth is that Karabakh was never a part of independent Azerbaijan,” stated Sargsyan. “Why do you think that Azerbaijan could secede from the USSR, but Mountainous Karabakh could not? Why do you think that large empires should disintegrate, but small ones should persevere? What is the basis? Instability? I cannot perceive it. I do not accept it. Because unfair decisions are the very cause of instability.”
It should be noted that the Armenian president’s speech in London has become his best speech since coming to office. He managed to both take over Aliyev’s initiative and make use of the British stage as the most important international tribune for presenting Armenia’s standpoint to the world.
Maybe, the Armenian president should be visiting Great Britain more often.
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