North-South Highway/Iran-Armenia Railway

[Federate]

Re: North-South Highway/Iran-Armenia Railway

I have a bad feeling about this whole railway project

The constant delays, political problems, lack of Russian enthusiasm... I feel like even if we finally get the backing to start building it, the cost is going to balloon ridiculously because of corruption and incompetence.

[Mher]

Re: North-South Highway/Iran-Armenia Railway

Repayment of Projects of this nature and size should be seen as long term obligation.

Not 20 years but more like 50 years if not 100 years.
A 100 year loan could make things manageable, roughly
(Repayment of $300) + (a low interest)+ (Maintenance) against (Toll charges) + (a variable subsidy)

If you consider its strategic significance both to the economy and geopolitics you start having the grounding for making a case.

Russians may not be too enthusiastic because they already have access to a North South route through Azerbaijan.

Geopolitically it would be appealing to Iran and Georgia as alternative to Azerbaijan.

It could also have an appeal to Russia all eventualities considered.

Financing would be difficult.

Do not think all Armenian effort would be viable both financially as well as administratively.
Do not think such money ( as a single investment) or trust exists.

Middle eastern sources have already show interest by spending substantial amounts to conduct a feasibility studies.
Asian Banks, Chinese money, Iran, Russia could be sources.
The Western entities might participate if they see any anti Russian slant to the whole picture.

The counter argument will be what else could we have done with such a vast amount ..... if the funds were available.

.

Actually Russia doesn't really have much of a North-South Access. The Railway running through Azerbaijan goes through Dagestan, and is considered very unreliable. The reason Russia doesn't show much interest in this project is because this project is no benefit to them unless the Abkhazia Railway is restored which we are years away from. Without that Railway, the existence of this would make no difference for Russia.

[Haykakan]

Re: North-South Highway/Iran-Armenia Railway

I was listening to a discussion about China –Armenia relations.
One of the specialists said something very interesting.

China does not have a specific policy towards Armenia.
It has a regional policy dominated by Iran.

Therefore they do not ( or cannot) have a different policy towards Armenia from Iran.
In other words if there are good China – Iran policies we benefit.
If they stop being interested in Iran they will not be interested in us.

.

Geopolitics are really turning into Armenia's favor. Lets hope things continue to get better. USA wants to stick its nose back into Iraq now so it seems things will be getting more complicated in that region.

[londontsi]

Re: North-South Highway/Iran-Armenia Railway

You can see why Russia would turn a 180 on this issue as China tries to step in. The relations between China and Russia are very interesting as both need each other yet both also compete for regional influence. It will be very interesting to see how the relations between these nations evolve and how it will effect us.

I was listening to a discussion about China –Armenia relations.
One of the specialists said something very interesting.

China does not have a specific policy towards Armenia.
It has a regional policy dominated by Iran.

Therefore they do not ( or cannot) have a different policy towards Armenia from Iran.
In other words if there are good China – Iran policies we benefit.
If they stop being interested in Iran they will not be interested in us.

.

[Haykakan]

Re: North-South Highway/Iran-Armenia Railway

You can see why Russia would turn a 180 on this issue as China tries to step in. The relations between China and Russia are very interesting as both need each other yet both also compete for regional influence. It will be very interesting to see how the relations between these nations evolve and how it will effect us.

[Mher]

Re: North-South Highway/Iran-Armenia Railway

Minister Rejects Russian Skepticism Over Iran-Armenia Railway

Sargis Harutyunyan

Հրապարակված է՝ 11.06.2015

Transport and Communications Minister Gagik Beglarian dismissed on Thursday a senior Russian official’s objections to the Armenian government’s long-standing plans to build a railway connecting Armenia to neighboring Iran.

Vladimir Yakunin, the influential head of Russia’s state-run rail network RZhD, said at the weekend that that the ambitious project is not economically viable. He compared it to “cutting through a window in the wall leading nowhere.”

“That is Mr. Yakunin’s subjective opinion which has nothing to do with reality,” Beglarian told RFE/RL’s Armenian service (Azatutyun.am). “But I can understand him. That statement stems from the interests of the company headed by him.”

Beglarian would not say why he thinks RZhD is disinterested in the Iran-Armenia rail link. “That project is very important for our state and people,” he said instead, adding that the Armenian government will press ahead with its implementation.

Yakunin called the project “realistic” when he visited Armenia in 2012.

Shortly after taking office in April 2008, President Serzh Sarkisian promised that work on the railway will start “in the coming years.” However, his government has still not attracted an estimated $3 billion in investments needed for building its 305-kilometer Armenian section. The figure is roughly equivalent to Armenia’s entire state budget.

Accordingly, the government has been vague about possible dates for the start of the railway’s construction. Prime Minister Hovik Abrahamian seemed to have added his voice to domestic skepticism about the project during a cabinet meeting in February.

“Mr. Beglarian, is there any hope on this issue?” Abrahamian asked the transport minister. “We are working on the project’s implementation,” replied Beglarian.

The planned railway would not only facilitate Armenian-Iranian trade but also make it much easier for Armenia to use Iranian territory for import and export operations with other nations and China in particular. Much of Armenian-Chinese trade, which amounted to $590 million last year, is already carried out through Iran’s Persian Gulf ports.

The issue was reportedly high on the agenda of Sarkisian’s official visit to China in March. The Armenian president called for “active” Chinese involvement in the project.

http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/27066948.html

[Haykakan]

Re: North-South Highway/Iran-Armenia Railway

londontsi raises a good point in the form of opportunity cost. Perhaps there is a better way to use that much money if we get it. I think Iran, Georgia, and Russia would all benefit from this project also thus they should also pitch in.

[londontsi]

Re: North-South Highway/Iran-Armenia Railway

The problem is the massive size of the necessary investment. We are talking about over 3 billion dollars. In its twenty years of existence, ArmeniaFund has managed to collect 250 million dollars in total. So doing so collectively through ordinary individuals will be close to impossible. I think the only way it could happen through the Diaspora would be through a few extremely wealthy individuals who could attract funding from fellow super rich businessmen. Even that seems difficult for many reasons, with the first being the uncertainty in regards to financial profit.

And to think how easily Aliyev burns through a few billion dollars annually just on his idiotic pet projects that make zero economic sense. With just ten billion dollars to invest in key infrastructure we would probably see at least a doubling or tripling of our GDP

Repayment of Projects of this nature and size should be seen as long term obligation.

Not 20 years but more like 50 years if not 100 years.
A 100 year loan could make things manageable, roughly
(Repayment of $300) + (a low interest)+ (Maintenance) against (Toll charges) + (a variable subsidy)

If you consider its strategic significance both to the economy and geopolitics you start having the grounding for making a case.

Russians may not be too enthusiastic because they already have access to a North South route through Azerbaijan.

Geopolitically it would be appealing to Iran and Georgia as alternative to Azerbaijan.

It could also have an appeal to Russia all eventualities considered.

Financing would be difficult.

Do not think all Armenian effort would be viable both financially as well as administratively.
Do not think such money ( as a single investment) or trust exists.

Middle eastern sources have already show interest by spending substantial amounts to conduct a feasibility studies.
Asian Banks, Chinese money, Iran, Russia could be sources.
The Western entities might participate if they see any anti Russian slant to the whole picture.

The counter argument will be what else could we have done with such a vast amount ..... if the funds were available.

.

[Mher]

Re: North-South Highway/Iran-Armenia Railway

I wouldn't call an armenian church ugly, but I do agree money can be spent more efficiently. Maybe the diaspora can pay for a chunk of it to entice foreign investors?

The problem is the massive size of the necessary investment. We are talking about over 3 billion dollars. In its twenty years of existence, ArmeniaFund has managed to collect 250 million dollars in total. So doing so collectively through ordinary individuals will be close to impossible. I think the only way it could happen through the Diaspora would be through a few extremely wealthy individuals who could attract funding from fellow super rich businessmen. Even that seems difficult for many reasons, with the first being the uncertainty in regards to financial profit.

And to think how easily Aliyev burns through a few billion dollars annually just on his idiotic pet projects that make zero economic sense. With just ten billion dollars to invest in key infrastructure we would probably see at least a doubling or tripling of our GDP

[Shant03]

Re: North-South Highway/Iran-Armenia Railway

I wouldn't call an armenian church ugly, but I do agree money can be spent more efficiently. Maybe the diaspora can pay for a chunk of it to entice foreign investors?