Armenia's Economic Pulse

[Mher]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

A few basic economic factors to keep in mind this coming year

1) price of copper: Copper remains Armenia's biggest export, and the price right now is at a seven year low.

http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/copper.aspx?timeframe=10y

2)agriculture production. 2015 was a very successful agricultural year for Armenia due to good weather, and this was the main reason Armenia outperformed all predictions by international institutions. 2014 by constant was very poor due to severe spring weather. its crucial to have another good year if the economy is to keep growing.

3) Russian economy and Turkish/Russian relations. 20% of Armeina's GDP is unfortunately still composed of remittance, the fifth highest rate in the world, and most of that comes from Russia. Moreover, the overall regional economy, the viability of Armenian exports, all depend on the Russian economy. The worsening of Turkish/Russian relations only benefits Armenia. It increases our strategic value, and the banning of Turkish good will have a boost for Armenian exports, just like the retaliatory sanctions against Europe did.

4) development of the Iranian economy after sanctions. The Iranian economy is bound to see positive changes in a post sanction world, and we should see a spillover effect in Armenia. this includes both cheaper/better Iranian products, as well as a better iranian market for armenian goods.


the one bright spot for our economy remains the IT sector. It's grown from less than 1% of the GDP to 5% by the end of 2015. It's supposed to reach 10% by 2019.

But we need to continue to develop it and other domestic sector so we can get out of this sad third world, shock prevalent economic state we find ourselves in, where our economic survival is based on such ludicrous factors like weather, copper price, and remittance.

[HyeSocialist]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

A few basic economic factors to keep in mind this coming year

1) price of copper: Copper remains Armenia's biggest export, and the price right now is at a seven year low.

http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/copper.aspx?timeframe=10y

2)agriculture production. 2015 was a very successful agricultural year for Armenia due to good weather, and this was the main reason Armenia outperformed all predictions by international institutions. 2014 by constant was very poor due to severe spring weather. its crucial to have another good year if the economy is to keep growing.

3) Russian economy and Turkish/Russian relations. 20% of Armeina's GDP is unfortunately still composed of remittance, the fifth highest rate in the world, and most of that comes from Russia. Moreover, the overall regional economy, the viability of Armenian exports, all depend on the Russian economy. The worsening of Turkish/Russian relations only benefits Armenia. It increases our strategic value, and the banning of Turkish good will have a boost for Armenian exports, just like the retaliatory sanctions against Europe did.

4) development of the Iranian economy after sanctions. The Iranian economy is bound to see positive changes in a post sanction world, and we should see a spillover effect in Armenia. this includes both cheaper/better Iranian products, as well as a better iranian market for armenian goods.


the one bright spot for our economy remains the IT sector. It's grown from less than 1% of the GDP to 5% by the end of 2015. It's supposed to reach 10% by 2019.

But we need to continue to develop it and other domestic sector so we can get out of this sad third world, shock prevalent economic state we find ourselves in, where our economic survival is based on such ludicrous factors like weather, copper price, and remittance.

Agriculture needs investment in the forms of massive greenhouses and computerized/automated systems like those used in Spain. You can yield 2 to 3 times as much crops in a year at a fraction of the cost and labor.

[Zeytun]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

Agriculture needs investment in the forms of massive greenhouses and computerized/automated systems like those used in Spain. You can yield 2 to 3 times as much crops in a year at a fraction of the cost and labor.

Correct, But right now its economically unreasonable to introduce high cost technologies, that require highly qualified labors. Wages in Armenia are still low, Labor is abundant ( Due to unemployment) so the best thing is to introduce technology on a small scale to complement labors and increase efficiency. So probably using labor intensive techniques is economically and socially justified right now.
( Assessing the technique to use, depend on the factor available, wages, etc... so these things need research and valuation).

[HyeSocialist]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

Correct, But right now its economically unreasonable to introduce high cost technologies, that require highly qualified labors. Wages in Armenia are still low, Labor is abundant ( Due to unemployment) so the best thing is to introduce technology on a small scale to complement labors and increase efficiency. So probably using labor intensive techniques is economically and socially justified right now.
( Assessing the technique to use, depend on the factor available, wages, etc... so these things need research and valuation).

I agree with what you're saying, and maybe those advanced methods of agriculture are a bit a way. Investments in dairy productions and poultry productions should be upped. Armenia does have the potential to utilize its land for a higher yield with newer methods and technologies. It can also allocate vast lots of land to nature reserves to increase tourism. Lowering labor participation in agriculture might also encourage light manufacturing, or just exasperate migration.

[Mher]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

I agree with what you're saying, and maybe those advanced methods of agriculture are a bit a way. Investments in dairy productions and poultry productions should be upped. Armenia does have the potential to utilize its land for a higher yield with newer methods and technologies. It can also allocate vast lots of land to nature reserves to increase tourism. Lowering labor participation in agriculture might also encourage light manufacturing, or just exasperate migration.

some of the technology you mentioned actually gets used, but only by very few large companies. There's a lot that needs to reformed and improved in Armenian agriculture. the amount of food that gets produced but never sold or consumed is hard to believe. There's a lot of shortcoming in quality control, in efficiency, and in distribution.

[londontsi]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

some of the technology you mentioned actually gets used, but only by very few large companies. There's a lot that needs to reformed and improved in Armenian agriculture. the amount of food that gets produced but never sold or consumed is hard to believe. There's a lot of shortcoming in quality control, in efficiency, and in distribution.

Thanks for that ......... and we should not be afraid or hesitate from technology.

If the government can budget subsidies they should make available for training/equipment.

Also not only to their cronies and oligarchs but to the average grower ... to be defined.

As far as cost of equipment/investment it is immaterial .
What matters is payback period based on output since they will should be grown for export and foreign currency.

.

[HyeSocialist]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

Thanks for that ......... and we should not be afraid or hesitate from technology.

If the government can budget subsidies they should make available for training/equipment.

Also not only to their cronies and oligarchs but to the average grower ... to be defined.

As far as cost of equipment/investment it is immaterial .
What matters is payback period based on output since they will should be grown for export and foreign currency.

.

That's largely my point. Armenia has what, 40% of workforce allocated to agriculture? For average industrialized countries this is 1-5%, Israel has about a 10% of participate rate in Agriculture. Proper governance and introduction of technology and training should reduce the workforce participation in agriculture to about 10% so more folks can go into high profitable industries like light manufacturing or service.

[Haykakan]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

EEU READY TO DISCUSS FREE TRADE AGREEMENT WITH HONG KONG: OFFICIAL

January 18, 2016 - 16:50 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net - The Eurasian Economic Union is interested in
expanding east and signing a free tradeagreement with Hong Kong,
RT cited Russia's Deputy Prime Minister as saying.

"We recently concluded the free trade zone agreement between the
Eurasian Economic Union and Vietnam and are currently negotiating
with Israel," Arkady Dvorkovich said. "We are ready to discuss this
issue with Hong Kong."

The Eurasian Economic Union is an economic union of states located
primarily in northern Eurasia. A treaty aiming for the establishment
of the EEU was signed on May 29, 2014 by the leaders of Belarus,
Kazakhstan and Russia, and came into force on January 1, 2015.

Treaties aiming for Armenia and Kyrgyzstan'saccession to the Eurasian
Economic Union were signed on October 9, 2014 and December23, 2014,
respectively. Armenia and Kyrgyzstan's accession treaties came into
force on January 2, 2015 and August 6, 2015.

[Mher]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

World Bank Confident About Armenian Exchange Rate


Tatevik Lazarian
Հրապարակված է՝ 19.01.2016

The Armenian dram’s value against the U.S. dollar will likely remain stable despite the continuing depreciation of the Russian ruble, a World Bank official said on Tuesday.

Armenia’s national currency weakened by over 15 percent against the dollar in late 2014 amid a sharp fall in dollar-denominated remittances from Armenian migrant workers in Russia resulting from the collapse of oil prices. The Central Bank of Armenia managed to stop the dram’s depreciation by sharply raising interesting rates and tightening minimum reserve requirements for commercial banks.

The dram weakened against the dollar by less than 2 percent in the course of 2015, making it the most stable currency in the former Soviet Union. Its exchange rate remained virtually unchanged even after the drop in oil prices accelerated in October. By comparison, the Russian ruble has lost a further 20 percent of its value against the dollar and the euro in the past three months.

“In the current situation I do not think the dram is jeopardized,” Laura Bailey, the head of the World Bank office in Yerevan, told RFE/RL’s Armenian service (Azatutyun.am).

Bailey insisted that Russia, Azerbaijan and other oil-rich ex-Soviet states have seen their national currencies plummet in value because of their heavy dependence on oil revenues. “I am very happy to say that I do not see that we are faced with that kind of vulnerability [in Armenia,]” she said.

In recent months, there have been no indications that the Central Bank of Armenia has resorted to heavy dollar interventions in the domestic currency to shore up the dram. In a further sign that the dram is not under strong pressure, the bank repeatedly cut its refinancing rate in the second half of last year.

The benchmark rate currently stands at 8.75 percent, down from 10.5 percent in August 2015.

http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/27497395.html

[Mher]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

Iran Sanctions Relief ‘Major Opportunity For Armenia’

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Tatevik Lazarian
Հրապարակված է՝ 19.01.2016

The lifting of international sanctions against Iran has opened up “quite a few interesting opportunities” for Armenia’s economy, a senior official from the World Bank said on Tuesday.

Laura Bailey, the head of the bank’s Yerevan office, said the development could speed up the implementation of Armenian-Iranian energy projects, facilitate trade between the two neighboring states and turn Armenia into a commercial bridge between Iran and the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).

Speaking to RFE/RL’s Armenian service (Azatutyun.am), Bailey argued that Armenia is the only EEU member state bordering Iran. She suggested that other EEU member states might therefore “invest here to work with Iran.”

“It may also be the other way: that Iran may wish to trade with the EEU and Armenia may pave the way for Iran,” she added.

Immediately after Iran reached in July a landmark deal with world powers on its controversial nuclear program, the Armenian government proposed that the EEU explore the possibility of negotiating a free trade agreement with the Islamic Republic.

Deputy Foreign Minister Shavarsh Kocharian said in September that the EEU’s executive body and member states agreed to set up a task force that will weigh up potential economic benefits and risks of such an agreement. “Iran has always shown an interest in this matter,” he said.

According to government statistics, Armenia’s trade with Iran totaled a modest $250 million in January-November 2015. This figure should rise significantly after the construction of a new high-voltage transmission line that will connect the power grids of the two countries. It is designed to sharply increase Armenian electricity exports to Iran and Iranian gas supplies to Armenia.

Work on the transmission line began late last year and is due to finish in 2017. Armenian officials have expressed hope that the lifting of the sanctions will also allow the Iranian side to finance the $350 million construction of a major hydroelectric plant on the Armenian-Iranian border.

Bailey described information technology (IT), the fastest growing sector of the Armenian economy, as another potential area of closer Armenian-Iranian cooperation. “This could be quite a strategic advantage for Armenia,” she said.

http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/27497313.html