Armenia's Economic Pulse

[Mher]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

A lot of positive news, let's hope the Russian economy doesn't underperform

World Bank predicts 5 percent economic expansion for Armenia in 2014


YEREVAN, April 9, / ARKA /. The World Bank predicts a 5% economic growth for Armenia in 2014, according to its report "Armenia, Looking for More Dynamism." The report says also that Armenia’s GDP may increase to 5.5 % in 2014-2017.

The report explains this growth rate by a steady level of private savings and investment, as well as by a gradual increase in the proportion of economically active population and production growth trends.

The report says that the gradual recovery of the global economy will contribute to real GDP growth in Armenia in the medium term.

Industry and services are said to be the main growth engines and their contribution to GDP will increase from 50% to 60 %.

At the same time, the World Bank forecast a 5-6 percent growth of agriculture, which is the average annual growth in the last 10 years According to World Bank experts, construction sector is still risky because it experiences a decline every second year after the crisis.

Despite the 5 percent GDP growth forecast in the medium term, there are some risks in 2014 related to the weakening of the Russian economy, according to the report.

It says the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and the depreciation of the Russian ruble could have negative consequences for Armenia’s economy - from the decline in export demand to the impact of a weak ruble on remittances by Armenian labor migrants in Russia.

The report says also the inflation rate in Armenia in 2014 will be 2.3% and 4% in 2015.

The report says also that due to low prices at the international consumer markets, as well as a stable price level for gas thanks to an agreement signed with Russia, inflationary pressures in Armenia will weaken.

According to Armenia’s 2014 budget, the GDP is expected to grow by 5.2 % and the inflation is forecast at 4 % (± 1.5%).

http://arka.am/en/news/economy/world_bank_predicts_5_percent_economic_expansion_for_armenia_in_2014/#sthash.LYVGxIvJ.dpuf

[Haykakan]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

ARMENIA'S CHEESE EXPORT LAST YEAR AMOUNTED TO 1,514 TONS

YEREVAN, April 14. / ARKA /. Armenia's cheese export last year
amounted to 1,514 tons, and cheese imports stood at 1,200 tons, Ashot
Hovhanesian, head of veterinary service of the ministry of agriculture,
told a news conference today.

He said it was the first time that cheese exports exceed imports
by 300 tons. He also said last year's export figure represented a
fourfold growth from 2011.

"In 2011 Armenia sold abroad 403 tons, in 2012 that number grew to
907 tons, and in 2013 we had it grow to 1,514 tons" , he said.

Some 25 varieties of cheese are produced in the country. Some of them,
like "Lori ", " Chanakh", " Motal ", " Chechil a" and " Yeghegnadzor
" are native Armenian varieties.

According to the data of the Armenian State Revenue Committee, exports
of cheese and curd in 2013 amounted to 1,541 tons, up from 904.6 tons
in 2012. The bulk was exported to Russia and Georgia.

According to the same data, imports of cheese and cottage cheese
last year amounted to 1,243 tons, up from 1,056 tons in 2012. The
bulk was imported from New Zealand, Germany and Russia. -0-

- See more at:

http://arka.am/en/news/business/armenia_s_cheese_export_last_year_amounted_to_1_514_tons/#sthash.yH9LrBsR.dpuf

[Mher]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

Gazprom Armenia tops the list of 1000 largest corporate taxpayers in first quarter


YEREVAN, April 29. / ARKA /. Armenia’s Russian-owned national gas distribution company Gazprom Armenia topped the list of the largest 1000 corporate taxpayers in the first quarter of 2014, according to the data of the State Revenue Committee.

The company paid 17.7 billion drams in various taxes in the first three months of the year, up from 13.2 billion drams it had paid in the first quarter of 2013.

Some 17.6 billion drams of that amount were collected by tax authorities, and about 68.6 million drams by customs authorities. Of that amount more than 1.23 billion drams were direct taxes and 16.4 billion drams were indirect taxes (including VAT and excise taxes); another 90.6 million drams were collected as duties and mandatory payments.

Gazprom Armenia was followed by Alex Grig Company which paid a total of 5.2 billion drams in various taxes, up from about 3.8 billion drams paid in the same period of 2013. Of that amount 633.1 million were collected by tax and more than 4.5 billion drams by customs authorities.

Armenia Telephone Company (ArmenTel) was third after paying more than 4.2 billion drams in taxes, up from 3.7 billion drams paid in January-March 2013. Zangezur Copper and Molybdenum Combine was fourth with 2.9 billion drams of paid taxes, down from 3.4 billion drams it had paid in the first quarter of 2013.

Flash oil trader was fifth. It paid 2.5 billion drams against 2.7 billion drams paid in the same period of 2013.

In general, the 1000 largest taxpayers in the first quarter of 2014 paid over 154.3 billion drams in taxes against 146.3 billion drams paid in January-March 2013. ($ 1 - 412.80 drams).

http://arka.am/en/news/economy/gazprom_armenia_tops_the_list_of_1000_largest_corporate_taxpayers_in_first_quarter/#sthash.M4gXYKJV.dpuf

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
very solid numbers
good to see the situation in Russia hasn't affected Armenia so far

[Mher]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

Armenia registers 1.7-percent inflation in Jan.-April 2014
May 05, 2014 | 12:54

YEREVAN. – Armenia registered a 1.7-percent inflation in Jan.-April 2014, National Statistical Service representative told reporters.

Gurgen Martirosyan said consumer prices in Armenia increased by 3 percent, alcohol and tobacco by 5.8 percent, non-food products by 0,7 percent and services by 0.2 percent.

As compared with last year's April, overall inflation increased by 4.4 percent, while consumer prices went up by 2.6 percent. Prices for services increased by 8.5 percent which is conditioned by increase in gas and electricity prices.

http://news.am/eng/news/207604.html

[Mher]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

Armenia's industrial output registers 2.8 percent decline in Jan.-March 2014
May 02, 2014 | 18:48

Armenia's industrial output registered a 2.8 percent decline in the first quarter of 2014 as compared with the same period last year, making AMD 274.3 billion or $663 million, National Statistical Service reported.

Agriculture output growth reached 5.2 percent and made AMD 68.5 billion. Construction volume increased by 4.5 percent as compared with the same period last year.

The sector of services, excluding trade, registered a 3.5-percent growth.

Average monthly nominal wages increased by 6.6 percent as compared with Jan.-March 2013 and made AMD 157,300.

http://news.am/eng/news/207300.html

[Mher]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

IMF forecasts 4.3% economic growth in Armenia in 2014

May 06, 2014 | 15:19
Russia's economic slowdown will not reduce Armenia's GDP as compared with 2013, shows the recent report issued by International Monitory Fund on Tuesday.

According to IMF forecast, the expected economic growth in Armenia in 2014 is 4.3 percent as compared to 3.2 percent last year. In 2015 economic growth is projected to teach 4.5 percent.

Economic growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) is expected to decline to 6 percent in 2014 from 6.5 percent in 2013, mainly because of sharply weaker activity in Russia and other emerging markets, the IMF says.

Economic activity in the CCA continued to expand at a strong rate in 2013, thanks to robust domestic demand in the oil- and gas-exporting countries (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) and strong export growth in the oil- and gas-importing countries (Armenia, Georgia, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan).

Nevertheless, slower growth prospects in the region’s main trading partners—Russia, China, and Turkey—will weigh on exports, foreign direct investment, and remittances.

http://news.am/eng/news/207839.html

[Mher]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

Eurasian Development Bank: Armenia’s GDP growth expected to reach 4.8% in 2014


YEREVAN, May 13. /ARKA/. Armenia's GDP growth is expected to speed up this year to 4.8%, Eurasian Development Bank's analysis division says in its regular CIS Macro Monitoring.
According to the analysis, economic activity index rose 3.2% in February 2014, compared with Feb 2013.

This improvement was ensured by agriculture, which accounted for 7.2% growth, and the services sector (5.8% growth). Besides, construction gained momentum after years of flagging and showed 2.3% growth in February 2014.

Improvement in the mentioned sector came amid a five-percent decline in the industry and 4.2% slowdown in trade. As a result, the economic activity index stood at 2.4% in January and February 2014.

Analysts at the Eurasian Development Bank find this improvement not sufficient to speed up GDP growth considerably. They think GDP growth will remain slow.

The bank's experts also pointed out that Armenia’s payment balance worsened in January 2014. The downward trend was blamed on decreasing profits from financial operations against the backdrop of falling foreign trade deficit as well as by a 26 percent rise in remittances ($78.6 million) in annual terms.

They also said the inflow of investments continues dwindling as outflow of capital is intensifying and after the increase in amounts of foreign borrowings slowed down in 2013. These factors explain the Armenian national currency's downward motion.

“The present structural and institutional problems keep the Armenian dram’s rate dependent on outside factors and probability of increase of the country’s foreign debt,” they say in their report.

According to the bank’s analysts forecast, the government budget deficit will widen to 2.3% of GDP in 2014 spurring economic activity but weakening the country’s ability to resist adverse impacts coming from the outside.

The authors of the report predict that the achievement of arrangements on natural gas supply and Russia's decision to lift customs duty on oil products will have favorable impacts on inflation, which will return to the projected rate.

They also say that the increase of customs duties may carry a short-term risk in 2014.
In the 2014 government budget, GDP growth is projected at 5.2% and inflation rate at 4% (±1.5%). -0---

http://arka.am/en/news/economy/eurasian_development_bank_armenia_s_gdp_growth_expected_to_reach_4_8_in_2014/

[Haykakan]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

Eurasian Development Bank: Armenia’s GDP growth expected to reach 4.8% in 2014


YEREVAN, May 13. /ARKA/. Armenia's GDP growth is expected to speed up this year to 4.8%, Eurasian Development Bank's analysis division says in its regular CIS Macro Monitoring.
According to the analysis, economic activity index rose 3.2% in February 2014, compared with Feb 2013.

This improvement was ensured by agriculture, which accounted for 7.2% growth, and the services sector (5.8% growth). Besides, construction gained momentum after years of flagging and showed 2.3% growth in February 2014.

Improvement in the mentioned sector came amid a five-percent decline in the industry and 4.2% slowdown in trade. As a result, the economic activity index stood at 2.4% in January and February 2014.

Analysts at the Eurasian Development Bank find this improvement not sufficient to speed up GDP growth considerably. They think GDP growth will remain slow.

The bank's experts also pointed out that Armenia’s payment balance worsened in January 2014. The downward trend was blamed on decreasing profits from financial operations against the backdrop of falling foreign trade deficit as well as by a 26 percent rise in remittances ($78.6 million) in annual terms.

They also said the inflow of investments continues dwindling as outflow of capital is intensifying and after the increase in amounts of foreign borrowings slowed down in 2013. These factors explain the Armenian national currency's downward motion.

“The present structural and institutional problems keep the Armenian dram’s rate dependent on outside factors and probability of increase of the country’s foreign debt,” they say in their report.

According to the bank’s analysts forecast, the government budget deficit will widen to 2.3% of GDP in 2014 spurring economic activity but weakening the country’s ability to resist adverse impacts coming from the outside.

The authors of the report predict that the achievement of arrangements on natural gas supply and Russia's decision to lift customs duty on oil products will have favorable impacts on inflation, which will return to the projected rate.

They also say that the increase of customs duties may carry a short-term risk in 2014.
In the 2014 government budget, GDP growth is projected at 5.2% and inflation rate at 4% (±1.5%). -0---

http://arka.am/en/news/economy/euras...h_4_8_in_2014/

It always cracks me up when i read some of these economic reports. Ok so lifting of customs duties will make oil cheaper and this will cause inflation...did it cross anyones mind that besides inflation other things could be impacted positively also because of cheaper oil products? The fact is that inflation would result if you had full employment(natural rate of employment) already which is where Armenia wishes it was and not where it is today. Inflation is not the real concern here but the fact that cheaper oil products will help the economy is a certainty without question yet it is not even mentioned here in this report. So ask yourself why would an economic report mention the downside which will not happen but it will not mention the positive side which will happen. These facts here would raise suspicion in me of the source of this information or at least the editor of it. Critical thinking is a must when analyzing data.

[Mher]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

It always cracks me up when i read some of these economic reports. Ok so lifting of customs duties will make oil cheaper and this will cause inflation...did it cross anyones mind that besides inflation other things could be impacted positively also because of cheaper oil products? The fact is that inflation would result if you had full employment(natural rate of employment) already which is where Armenia wishes it was and not where it is today. Inflation is not the real concern here but the fact that cheaper oil products will help the economy is a certainty without question yet it is not even mentioned here in this report. So ask yourself why would an economic report mention the downside which will not happen but it will not mention the positive side which will happen. These facts here would raise suspicion in me of the source of this information or at least the editor of it. Critical thinking is a must when analyzing data.

No the article states that it will inflation will be positively impacted

[Haykakan]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

No the article states that it will inflation will be positively impacted

Yes you are right-i must have misread that part. It actually shows GDP outpacing inflation which is great. The article makes a lot more sense now-thanks for pointing it out Mher.