Turkey (Threat to World Civilization!)

[Virgil]

http://youtube.com/watch?v=Nd4qA0FlFvw
http://youtube.com/watch?v=YTiuwsh4kTQ
http://youtube.com/watch?v=tLCIRNDfekc

Georgians, they are eyeing your country as well, new Ottoman Empire forming.

[freakyfreaky]

Re: Turkey (Threat to World Civilization!)

Blah, blah, blah. That's old news.

Looks like they've got their own problems.

Apparently, "the winner is not Georgia."

[freakyfreaky]

Re: Turkey (Threat to World Civilization!)

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2007/11/35a73aac-67df-4329-b748-d25f465faaaa.html

I think the real issue is what does the Georgia and Pakistan emergencies mean to opposition movements within surrounding nations.

[Virgil]

Re: Turkey (Threat to World Civilization!)

Blah, blah, blah. That's old news.

Looks like they've got their own problems.

Apparently, "the winner is not Georgia."

Yeah, I just hope you got my PM, I hope that expains to enough to know my motives and my opinions, just don't call me out next time.

[freakyfreaky]

Re: Turkey (Threat to World Civilization!)

Virgil,

Are the Chechens more aligned with Turkey or Russia?

http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/politics/28.html?id_issue=11905589

They (the Georgians) have been having trouble in Abkhazia and South Ossetia for sometime now.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-11/13/content_7066481.htm

http://www.easybourse.com/Website/dynamic/News.php?NewsID=338442

[Virgil]

Re: Turkey (Threat to World Civilization!)

Virgil,

Are the Chechens more aligned with Turkey or Russia?

http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/politics/28.html?id_issue=11905589

They (the Georgians) have been having trouble in Abkhazia and South Ossetia for sometime now.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-11/13/content_7066481.htm

http://www.easybourse.com/Website/dy...?NewsID=338442

The simple answer is that Chechens are aligned with Chechens, but I think you are not asking the simple question. If you are asking me whos interests, again this word interests is fundimental in understand on the micro level human nature and on the macro level geopolitical events,the integral of collectives interests that each human being within a geographic area holds , also known as the group interest (Read as the points underneath the curve that sum up to a area, this area is the collective group interest).

I don't usually talk politics online, but I will throw you a freebie. Essentially, the interests of Turkey, Russian, and Iran meet at the gates of the Transcaucus, this is the area where each empire wishes to extend their reaches, this has also become a equilibrium point for all three empires. This region is important because it is where the two ends of the Euroasian continent interesect, I don't mean literally that they are two seperate continents, but if you look at the map, this area is where most of the traffic of the world runs through, the magical line from the Transcaucus to the southern tip of Iran. First, they are motivated by the control or proxy control of land because land equates to the control of the economic flows of the world that run through the region (Essentially, whoever controls land and sea routes gets the residual income from these routes, its pretty simple, but complicated because the interests conflict with micro interests of the various groups within the geographic area of the Transcaucus). Second, land equates to raw materials, which is very abudent in around the Caspian.

Europe and the United States wants to marginalize Russian geopolitical power by making sure these raw materials flow into their markets via a state that they, collectivly, have a control over (Also known as the Turkish Republic). Conversly, Russia wants to increase its geopolitical power by monopolizing the flow of raw materals. By the way, you have to understand that the market system is a economy on paper, but in real terms this equates to people building things, buying them, distributing them, and selling them retail, what most "talking heads" fail to realize is that the economy can only work if you have the resources to input in the economic machine to get a output, this is why the idea that we are not competing with one another when in fact everyone in this world is competing, we just pretend that we are not in order to make ourselves feel better about the decisions we make. Iran on the other hand wants to become s superpower itself because, one, it has the resources, and two, it has the population, what it lacks is the technology.

This is where the interests of Russian and Iran intersect. Russians would rather have a Iranian controled resources with pipelines through Russia versus giving up Iran to the Americans and Europe so that the pipelines can go through Turkey. In the middle of all these decisions the Americans and Europeans are essentially funding another superpower in the region, the Turkish Republic, which then begs the question, why would you oppose a superpower only to form another superpower in the region? (I will leave this unanswered because the answer requires a critque of capitalism and its failures, you can get a idea of where my argument would go if you study the rise and fall of the Greek city-states, specifically, the justification of the Athenian expansion by the Athenians themselves).

Going back to your question, I feel the Chechens want authonomy and as long as they want authonomy Turkey (And the United States plus Europe) will give them means to independence in order to break up the Russian and Iranian monopoly of the region. Turks will minipulate them into fighting against the Russians and or use them against the Armenains. Idealy, the various people in the Transcaucus should not resort to creating fiefdoms. They should instead work with one another to better their standards of living, no empire can be created from the Transcaucus. However, realistically the best case scnario is for the groups that Christians to band together in the region, I believe that both Pan-Turkism and Pan-Iranism a threat to everybody in the region, each entity is ignoring the micro interests of each individual in the Transcaucus. But in defence of Iranians they have no need to physically expand and a strong Iranian state means a strong Transcaucus because it grants them independence from Russia, which should also be sought after. In laymens terms, there can exist a "happy medium" working with Iranians and Russians, but there exists no interesecting interest by working with Turkey. In the Turkish ideology the Turk and the expansion of the mentality, the false honor of the Turk, is what is important. They still have the primative "Ghengis Khanesque" ideology of expansion.

As far as Georgians are concerned, IMHO, the day that Georgians and Armenians fight one another for a fiefdom is the day that Turkey can conglomerate its power, it is a sad day for both Armenians and Georgians. Hypothetical scnario is that either Armenians win, Georgians win, and or they both hit a equilibrium. If the Armenians win then they win land, but what do they actually win? They win provinces full of ethnically different people which they will either have to oppress into submission or eradicate. Like Israel they will have to spend countless amounts of GDP into resettling Armenians their or else the majority Georgians will always resort to violence and authonomy, they have a taste for it and due to nationalistic pride they will not just stand idle. Likewise, this is the same when Georgians wins.

If no one wins then they will again have to resort to GDP funding a micro coldwater, in my opinion, borders will not be closed because Georgia needs Armenia and vice versa, but it will not be a fruitful coexistence. This will give Azerbaijan the time to mobilize itself. It will play Georgians against Armenians.

Currently, Azerbaijan and Azeris are trying to destabilize the region by playing Georgians and Armenains against each, but the reality is that once Armenia is destabalized and Azerbaijan reunites with Turkey, Georgia will then become the next Armenia in that it will be pushed out of the Turkish and Azeri cooperation. What good is Georgia if there is exist no Armenia in between Azerbaijan and Turkey? Its no good, furthermore, Azeribaijan will refuse to build pipelines through Russia because that would go against Turkish and American interests. Therefore, it is imparitive for Georgians to realize this and change their foreign policy to align with Armenia, as long as the Armenian state exists Georgia has some leverage over Turkey and Azerbaijan. But again any realistic attempt to increase bilateral relations with Georgia should be done so with gurantees that the Armenians in Georgia will be given the rights and privalges as Georgian citizens and that the war criminals that pillaged Armenian villages during the Abkhazia crisis be rounded up and sentenced by due proces of law.

[Virgil]

Re: Turkey (Threat to World Civilization!)

They (the Georgians) have been having trouble in Abkhazia and South Ossetia for sometime now.

I will try my best to give you a direct answer, I think Georgia should try to solve this problem because delaying to solve it will directly affect the authonomy of its state at some point in the future, the quicker the better. I can not give a direct answer because picking one over the other has long term and short term consequences for Armenia, this is a problem Georgians have to deal with, but if the trend towards Armenia continues then it would be within Armenia's right to support destabilization because Georgians are doing the same towards Armenia by working with Turkey and Azerbaijan.