Russian-Armenian Relations

[KarotheGreat]

Re: Russian-Armenian Relations

Turkey is greater prize for Russia. If they could secure an allegiance with the Turks at the cost of their allegiance with Armenia, wouldn't they? Securing the Turks as an ally makes it all the more difficult for Armenia to push its agenda with the Russians if in competition with the Turks. A Russo-Turkish alliance, though currently is in the distant future, tell tale signs are emerging. Its something for Armenians to keep a close watch on. The re-allignment of alliances in that region is inevitable, especially Turkey's. It will spell trouble for Armenia when Turkey decides to be buddies with Russia; what can Armenia offer Russia when competing with Turkey for Russia's favors? You cannot overestimate the importance of Armenia and underestimate the importance of Turkey if Russia had to choose.

I've been reading alot lately on these threads how dearly people have been adulating this "Russian Resurgence" cozying and comforting themselves. Yes it's true, the Russians can now assert themselves unlike the chaos they were mired in the 90's. The rush of Russian oil created a rush of adrenaline and euphoria. Now a check has to be put in place on this runaway euphoria.

The Russian military-industrial complex is riddled with anxiety that stems from an intimate knowledge of itself: it knows its limitations. The military industrial complex of Russia is more aptly the "Soviet military industrial complex." The Soviet industrial and economic development was developed within the design of cold war military theory: Massive conventional warfare. The inherently inefficient development and management of soviet industry embedded itself into its physical infrastructure. The collapse of the USSR deprived the military industrial complex of precious capital to keep it dynamic and receptive to developments and needs of evolving warfare. Underinvestment withered the industrial base of Russia, leaving it a generation or more behind its western counterparts, even behind the aspiring dragon, China.

Putin's administration has been confronted with a reality that the threat to its military not from without but from within. A crumbling population with , the brain drain of the 90's, underinvestment and an undiversified economy, collapsing health and social challenges are all a threat to the "Rise" of the Russian Federation. All of this is taking its toll on the military. The military too, is an exhibition of the overall state of Russia: obsolete, old, rigid, withering and inefficient.

If the long term survival of Armenia is intertwined with that of Russia, it is an imperative for Armenia to ensure Russia's well being. A waning Russia means a defenseless Armenia.

The moment that Russia decides to betray it's ally Armenia to form an alliance with Russia, you must also understand that Turkey must betray it's ally the US. Than the Russian influence in the region will shrink because they will lose their only base in the region. And guess who will be invited to put soldiers in the base and gain influence in the region.

Russia has one true enemy and that's the US and they will fight for influence till one of them is destroyed like Persia and Rome have done. But you have to think what will be the consequences for Turkey, now Turkey is an ally of the 'west' and the US. But the moment you choose sides with Russia you will lose the west. say goodbye to EU entry for ever. Also you will have betrayed the US and they will think of you as an enemy and all your enemies will become their friends. And will get xxxx loads of money and weapons and support of the US. And after that they could even start a war against you to punish you.

But how would Nato react if you would for an alliance with Russia their only 'enemy' in the world. they could kick you out of it. So there are allot of consequences when you form an alliance with Russia. For Russia, Armenia and Turkey.

And I think the only reason we are not friends with Washington is because they are allies of Turkey. But if that's gone what is there to stop us. Turkey is a powerful country but its still a minor player not that bigger than Armenia.

[skhara]

Re: Russian-Armenian Relations

You cannot overestimate the importance of Armenia and underestimate the importance of Turkey if Russia had to choose.

Alliance? Russia doesn't really have major allies. All her allies are nations she can mostly control. There won't be any "alliance" with Turks -- the best there could be is a partnership -- like with Iran. Certainly the better the relations between Russia and Turkey, the less favorably Armenians would view the developments, but its not doom and gloom.

[Federate]

Re: Russian-Armenian Relations

A Turkish-Russian "alliance" is highly unlikely because both are powers vying for influence in not only the Caucasus but Europe and the Middle East as well. Like it is becoming more and more, it's an axis of Turkey-Georgia-"azerbaijan" v. Russia-Armenia-Iran. So Turkey is a threat to the Russian sphere of influence in the Caucasus. Turkey is also trying to gain a foothold in Middle East politics by trying to re-concile Syria and Israel. This won't sit well with Russia who is a major seller of arms to Syria, besides the attempted mediation Russia has been trying to do. As for Europe, Turkey is trying to the enter the EU and that alone is enough to see the differences Russia and Turkey have.

Armenia is the levee that stops the Turkic sea from flooding Russia's doors. While relations can remain on a positive between them, it won't amount to alliance or anything of the likes.

[Armenian]

Re: Russian-Armenian Relations

Alliance? Russia doesn't really have major allies. All her allies are nations she can mostly control. There won't be any "alliance" with Turks -- the best there could be is a partnership -- like with Iran. Certainly the better the relations between Russia and Turkey, the less favorably Armenians would view the developments, but its not doom and gloom.

Excellent point, Skhara. I liked the way you put it. Turkey is simply too big and too ambitious (due to its size, history and locality) to be considered a strategic ally for Moscow. The potential threat of pan-Turkism will also be a major factor. What's more, the large Turkish economy is desperately dependent on Russian supplied gas/oil. Incidentally, this dependence on Russian energy was the primary reason why Gul was forced to swallow his pride and visit Yerevan couple of months ago. In final analysis, you are right, Russia is seeking friendly/cooperative satellites. Russia's allies so to speak are its vast amounts of natural resources and its massive landmass. That's it. What's more, I think Russians have developed a deep suspicion of so-called allies as a result of their many costly and bloody disappointments. In my opinion, Russian-Turkish relations will not go past a mutually beneficial economic partnership. Geostrategically, Moscow will always look towards Turkey with suspicion. And this is where Armenia fits in.

And this is why I keep saying Armenia has been surviving in a geopolitical climate or niche only made possible by a strong Russian presence in the Caucasus.

Like you said, a close relationship between Moscow and Ankara may pose some problems for Armenia but it's not a doomsday scenario. Nonetheless, it would still be prudent to closely monitor Russian-Turkish relations. Better safe than sorry.

PS: I still don't understand how people can still think that if Russia and Turkey somehow unit as strategic allies Armenia will be able to stand up against them siding with Europe or America... If God forbid such a scenario occurs, Armenia will simply disappear from the world map.

[SoyElTurco]

Re: Russian-Armenian Relations

There are no doubt compromises as we move through history.

The scenario of the west "punishing" Turkey seems an unreal consequence if Turkey should ever shift.

What is clear, is that, Russia has international ambitions. Turks and Russians understand that they have overlapping interests - it becomes a question of mutual cooperation or competition. Turkish dependence on Russian oil is a source of tension between the two nations which does not allow Turkey to pursue an aggressive policy in the region as it potentially would. Despite their competitive relationship, one thing is clear: Russia feels vindicative of the west for the humilation of the 90's and the recent infringement of its security with the expansion of NATO, the missile shield and the independance of Kosovo. Turkey is highly disillusioned and resentful of the humiliation it suffered from the EU and the US's destabilizing of the middle east and creation of the nightmare state of Kurdistan, and the arming of PKK by Blackwater security. Russia and Turkey are looking at one another and are begining to share their disdain of the west.

The two powers that can make or break the Black Sea are the Russians and Turks. With mutual cooperation, both can exert almost unilateral influence on the littoral nations of the Black Sea. They can force the orientation of the caucus through the rewriting of the Montreux Convention in which Russia and Turkey are the sole enforcers.

A hypothetical Russian-Turkish axis is horror story for the nations of the caucus; they would be unable to thwart the Russo-Turkish yoke unless they worked together. To the contrary, Georgia exploited the isolation of Armenia instead of working with it. Georgia took advantage of being Armenia's only connection to Russia and the rest of the world. To eliminate Armenia as a competitor for pipeline projects, Georgia sold Armenia out. All are being played as pawns in the caucus. The Russians too have exploited Armenia's isolation to secure their hegemony in the region. As long as the caucus is divided and disunited, it doesn't matter if there is a Russo-Turkish alliance or not, Armenia will always get the short end of the stick unless it can convince its neighbors to better integrate their interests and cooperate much more effectively. A Russo-Turkish alliance would crush all the caucus nations.

Western agenda has solicited much resentment and hostility. Iran has been invited to join the CSTO. Petrodollar warfare makes it clear that this would be a serious threat on the dollar's hegemony. Western antagonism of Turkey, Iran and Russia makes it seem that all three nations, with enormous populations, regional military superiority and defensible geography should naturally gravitate towards one another. Such an axis would be doomsday for the western powers. Iran's power over the Persian gulf threatens the world's oil supplies, and if disrupted, would send the western economies on a catastrophic meltdown. Could the west afford to endanger its economy by confronting a Russian-Turkish-Iranian alliance or partnership? All three nations could figure that they could instead form their own cartel to control energy to Europe and the US.

The only obstacle for such an alliance or partnership is ironing out their interests. The three powers know they would be a formidable challenge that could end western dominance over the middle east. It's just a matter of time before they figure how they are going to go about working together.

In the grander scheme of things, Armenia does not seem like a priority when it comes to international jockeying. Armenia has to prepare for all scenarios and has to be prepared to move quick no matter what plays out. The best thing would perhaps be to initiate moves towards a trans caucasian federation.

[KarotheGreat]

Re: Russian-Armenian Relations

Excellent point, Skhara. I liked the way you put it. Turkey is simply too big and too ambitious (due to its size, history and locality) to be considered a strategic ally for Moscow. The potential threat of pan-Turkism will also be a major factor. What's more, the large Turkish economy is desperately dependent on Russian supplied gas/oil. Incidentally, this dependence on Russian energy was the primary reason why Gul was forced to swallow his pride and visit Yerevan couple of months ago. In final analysis, you are right, Russia is seeking friendly/cooperative satellites. Russia's allies so to speak are its vast amounts of natural resources and its massive landmass. That's it. What's more, I think Russians have developed a deep suspicion of so-called allies as a result of their many costly and bloody disappointments. In my opinion, Russian-Turkish relations will not go past a mutually beneficial economic partnership. Geostrategically, Moscow will always look towards Turkey with suspicion. And this is where Armenia fits in.

And this is why I keep saying Armenia has been surviving in a geopolitical climate or niche only made possible by a strong Russian presence in the Caucasus.

Like you said, a close relationship between Moscow and Ankara may pose some problems for Armenia but it's not a doomsday scenario. Nonetheless, it would still be prudent to closely monitor Russian-Turkish relations. Better safe than sorry.

PS: I still don't understand how people can still think that if Russia and Turkey somehow unit as strategic allies Armenia will be able to stand up against them siding with Europe or America... If God forbid such a scenario occurs, Armenia will simply disappear from the world map.

Why not, we are the only true ally in the whole Caucasus , Azeris will turn to the west from the first sign that Russia is becoming weaker and Georgia you know Georgia. Without the base in Armenia they lose almost all of their power in the Caucasus. We are their only fortress in the Caucasus. What should happen if they lose that to and gain Turkey.

You see Russia as our only way out, I don't neither does the leadership in Armenia. In the past we have choose one side and have stayed with that side till the bitter end. But those bigger powers have sacrificed us for their own power.

Russia is not the SU and Russia can't stand against the US. The Us is right now the strongest nation on the face of the planet, militarily and economical
they have the most allies in the world and they can use their forces were they want and how they want and no one can do anything against it. in a conventional war without nukes Russia would lose.

And if Turkey and Russia become allies they are our only chance. Our only chance to survive. And we need to do everything so we can survive.
I don't see a alliance happening he best the will work together economical, there wasn't a alliance in tzar era, neither the soviet era and it won't happen now.

[SoyElTurco]

Re: Russian-Armenian Relations

Conventional warfare is something noone can effectively do anymore; no one has that much of an advantage over another. Industrial warfare has become a pandora's box to sort of say. The Soviet Union in Afghanistan and the US in Iraq right now demonstrate to exert any kind of formidable control over a region, you need to supply an enormously large military force to occupy the area. With the way economics works nowadays, occupations are extremely expensive for any society, including the United States. To suggest a full scale war between nations is a distant thought. The threat of full scale wars are as potent deterents nuclear weapons if the losses are calculated to be high. Take Nagorno Karabakh as an example. It's costing a substantial amount of Armenia's GDP to keep it occupied. That's crucial capital that could otherwise have been invested in development. Armenia is falling behind everyday it continues to spend money into the occupation - its just dry occupation with no development.

Russia cannot fend itself conventionally if NATO, excluding Turkey, wanted to invade. NATO's air superiority would submit Russian air and ground forces, but incur a substantial loss as well since Russian air defense is extremely well developed. What would follow is a NATO victory after a brutal and costly invasion to seize Moscow. It just wouldn't be worth it for anyone to fight a war.

The world is different place now. There wasn't a Russo-Turkish Alliance in the past because these nations were all territorial competitors. The cold war was an ideological competition where the Turks did not want to become communists. Now, there is nor more ideological competition as there are regional economic and security incentives to work together. One thing is clear, there is trend of Russia and Turkey warming their relations, albeit slowly.

[Azad]

Re: Russian-Armenian Relations

turkey could gradually show rapprochement towards Russia. The new equation could ONLY effect the Artsakh territorial settlement for Armenia. For turkey it will be a nightmare of internal conflicts and divisions supported by the US and its affiliate organizations. The kurdish and Islamic problems in turkey will be real ... specially when the US couldn't create a permanent presence in Iraq and failed to prevented the Iranian nuclear build-up. israel at all cost will do everything in its power and its control to prevent such an equation in the region. turkey is stuck between pleasing EU, US and could only took towards Russia to an extend. A very limited one.
kurdistan could become a reality. The only remaining card to play for US and israel.

[Azad]

Re: Russian-Armenian Relations

Another economic equation to consider for turkey. turks are the cheap labor in the region ... same as Mexicans are for the US. Would turkey rather have the 300 million Europeans as their masters or the 150 million Russians that already have a cheaper labor workforce at its eastern frontiers that most are in an economic depression due to the world economic cooling down. The little economic stability of turkey is created by the European companies that resettled in turkey due to the cheap labor workforce and not Russian companies.

[KarotheGreat]

Re: Russian-Armenian Relations

Another economic equation to consider for turkey. turks are the cheap labor in the region ... same as Mexicans are for the US. Would turkey rather have the 300 million Europeans as their masters or the 150 million Russians that already have a cheaper labor workforce at its eastern frontiers that most are in an economic depression due to the world economic cooling down. The little economic stability of turkey is created by the European companies that resettled in turkey due to the cheap labor workforce and not Russian companies.

America has enough card to keep Turkey in line beside the Kurds, accepting the Armenian genocide, Wilsonian Armenia. Guess what will happen to Turkey if they ever choose to betray NATO and the US. It would be suicide for them. Russia can't offer enough and I think Russia would love to see Turkey as weak as possible; An maybe in a couple of decades they can take back the city on the seven hills.