Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

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“We can hit all targets of the enemy with modern weapons”

Both sides having armed to the teeth there must be a lot of truth in this statement BUT it applies to both sides.

War is not about hitting passive and stationary targets.

Its about conduct of the war which includes, neutralising potential threats, disabling command and control, communications links ( roads etc. ) as well strategic targets.

And ultimately how long the contact line will hold and who will prevail.

Azerbaijan would have the option to use Nakhichevan during hostilities.
Whether it would be a wise move its another matter.

Out of its five divisions one division is in Nakhichevan.

[edojan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

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Both sides having armed to the teeth there must be a lot of truth in this statement BUT it applies to both sides.

War is not about hitting passive and stationary targets.

Its about conduct of the war which includes, neutralising potential threats, disabling command and control, communications links ( roads etc. ) as well strategic targets.

And ultimately how long the contact line will hold and who will prevail.

Azerbaijan would have the option to use Nakhichevan during hostilities.
Whether it would be a wise move its another matter.

Out of its five divisions one division is in Nakhichevan.

True they have Tochka-U and Lynx MLRS that can reach the Nuclear Power Plant. (against which we can do little in terms of protection, S300 can intercept missiles but not guaranteed if they launch a big volley one will reach it for sure) Although bombing NPP is like using weapon of mass destruction against a country, which will give Armenia right to use such weapons also if we have them in our arsenal (which we don't contrary to popular beliefs and rumors). I am hoping that we have intelligence against such eventualities and can neutralize them.

good tool to identify distances
http://www.daftlogic.com/projects-go...calculator.htm

[Mokum]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

True they have Tochka-U and Lynx MLRS that can reach the Nuclear Power Plant. (against which we can do little in terms of protection, S300 can intercept missiles but not guaranteed if they launch a big volley one will reach it for sure) Although bombing NPP is like using weapon of mass destruction against a country, which will give Armenia right to use such weapons also if we have them in our arsenal (which we don't contrary to popular beliefs and rumors). I am hoping that we have intelligence against such eventualities and can neutralize them.

good tool to identify distances
http://www.daftlogic.com/projects-go...calculator.htm

If they will bomb the NPP, regions in Turkey also will be infected. Turkey won't allow that to happen and also the superpowers won't accept it as you already said, bombing NPP is like using weapons of mass destruction. Not to forget the Russians in Armenia, bomb the NKK will create a conflict with all they superpowers involved.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[QUOTE=edojan;336573]True they have Tochka-U and Lynx MLRS that can reach the Nuclear Power Plant.

if radiation spreads out of metsamor it could lead to a regional disaster, ie, it can reach into turkey/iran, They´d probably only do it when they have nothing to lose.

[edojan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[QUOTE=arakeretzig;336576]

True they have Tochka-U and Lynx MLRS that can reach the Nuclear Power Plant.

if radiation spreads out of metsamor it could lead to a regional disaster, ie, it can reach into turkey/iran, They´d probably only do it when they have nothing to lose.

its not if but when, (we are assuming war will go in our favor in NKR). This is virtually guaranteed to happen, all and every target is legitimate during war especially to side that is loosing. Not only NPP but will use their long range MLRS on Yerevan and other Major cities nonstop until we suppress or neutralize their firing positions. We cant forget history they did this in first war and will do it again in the next one. This is why every superpower considers war disastrous not only to Armenia but Azerbaijan also. If anything Armenia will avoid bombing cities to save face, which will help in politics but not morale of the population. Superpowers will not punish Azerbaijan to much ... politically we will have damaged infrastructure and cities, but will be compensated with new territory in exchange.

p.s. Radiation will be minimal, unless its surprise attack. Turkey wont care that Kurds to east get radiated, they will wait 150 years for radiation to clear out, Armenian will suffer most others its just collateral radiation/damage.

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

True they have Tochka-U and Lynx MLRS that can reach the Nuclear Power Plant. (against which we can do little in terms of protection, S300 can intercept missiles but not guaranteed if they launch a big volley one will reach it for sure) Although bombing NPP is like using weapon of mass destruction against a country, which will give Armenia right to use such weapons also if we have them in our arsenal (which we don't contrary to popular beliefs and rumors). I am hoping that we have intelligence against such eventualities and can neutralize them.

good tool to identify distances
http://www.daftlogic.com/projects-go...calculator.htm

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If they hit the NPP I hope there will be one decision maker who will instruct the waste to be dumped into the Kura River.




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[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The 102nd military base and Russian soldiers will be affected by a Metsamor attack. I don't think the Kremlin will be too pleased...

[Sarkis86]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

While it's important to consider assess all threats seriously, azerbaijan attacking Armenia proper seems highly unlikely. If they tried at Artsakh, and failed, they would probably do what they do best and retreat to Gandzak and Baku. Attacking Armenia proper opens up a mess they are in no shape to deal with: it invites the full retaliatory force of the Armenian military aimed at their oil and gas infrastructure, which would be killing the goose that lays aliyev's golden eggs. Apart from that, an attack on Armenia proper immediately gives Russia and the CTSO a reason to step in, and even the azeri's big brother turkey and nato would be absolutely powerless to step in. As long as Russia has a base in Gyumri, and needs that base to project its power in the region as the west steps up pressure on Iran, an attack on Armenia is tantamount to a direct assault on Russian interests. We saw in georgia 2008 how sensitive Russia is towards instability on its Caucasian border.

Official azeri rhetoric and threats are always meant for domestic consumption and to raise morale among their own people and keep them from noticing the fact that "rich" azerbaijan is drowning in corruption and inequality. Aside from Armenia, let's not forget that the azeris have claims on Northern Iran, and territorial disputes with "brother" Turkmenistan regarding the Caspian Sea. As Federate pointed out, they have been threatening Armenia almost since the day after the May 1994 ceasefire.

In any case, it wouldn't hurt if Armenia had a few WMDs, just for deterrence purposes

[davidoga]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Why do we never see any video of the azerbaijani army ? I mean we have allmost every day videos about the border life , people in the army , ...
But they never make a video , it's like noone is able to see the border !

Do you mean videos of the Azeri Army on frontline or of the parades (because YouTube is full of the latter)?

[Hakob]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan attacking NPP will open up the war to international caliber immediately. That will in turn involve Russia first. Armenia will hit the oil infrastructures of baku and as Russia is entering into the scene to stop the spread of the war and damage of oil industry(with reluctant acceptance of UN), Armenia quickly will move into Nakhijevan (also with Russia's approval, to prevent the turks from establishing so called peacekeeping contingent there first). Further, Armenia will hit azery eastern populated areas(attack on NPP will give us the psichological and moral opportunity). A huge azery refugie mass will move deep into azery center and towards Caspian shores. That in turn will slow baku's military manuvers and spread the panic. Azery population, with their government's propaganda, still thinks that next war is going to be them bombing us and we running away from overwhelming waves of their menpower. I seriosely doubt that they will withstand bombardment of their towns like Artsakh population did. They scenario will repeat Fizuly and gebrail, only much much bigger. In light of this Azerbaijani govenment will loose controll of population and the war will come to halt under international pressure and turkey's threats to enter the war. So negotiations will start again to bring peace between the parties with Nakhijevan on the negotiating list too.