Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army

[ninetoyadome]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

ICG: Heightened Risk Of Armenia-Azerbaijan War
September 29, 2013 - 12:02pm, by Joshua Kucera The Bug Pit Armenia Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh

The risk of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is increasing and international meditors need to step up efforts to make sure that conflict doesn't arise in the "coming weeks and months," says the International Crisis Group in a new report.

The report (pdf), Armenia and Azerbaijan: A Season of Risks, argues that internal tension in both Baku and Yerevan could cause a small conflict on the border -- which occur nearly constantly -- to spiral into a full-fledged war. In Azerbaijan, presidential elections will be held next month, and Armenia's recent abrupt announcement that it is joining Russia's Customs Union has thrown that country's political scene into turmoil, the report argues. This, combined with the arms both sides (but especially Azerbaijan) have been acquiring, could be a deadly mixture, the ICG argues: "Confrontation, low-intensity but volatile, between Azerbaijan and Armenia has entered a period of heightened sensitivity. The ICG "does not predict a second war is either imminent or more likely than not. It does suggest the near-term threats to stability are becoming more acute... Vigorous international engagement is needed to lessen chances of violent escalation during coming weeks and months."

The report's authors noted that in Baku, the planning for a military solution to the conflict appears to be getting more detailed: "Baku has increasingly emphasised a military solution, publicly and privately. Strategic planners discuss this in much more specific terms than even a year ago. Air strikes are mentioned as a first stage in any offensive, targeting air defences, then infrastructure. 'We are confident we can retake a significant amount of territory in a relatively short time and force the Armenians to make a deal', said one." Armenians, meanwhile, are wondering if it may be worth carrying out a preemptive strike against Azerbaijan while the military balance is not too far in the latter's favor.

Unfortunately, the report notes, the international efforts to tamp down the conflict do not appear to be up to the challenge. It criticized the international mediators of the OSCE's Minsk Group for being ineffective, and in the case of Russia, having too many interests in the region to be an honest broker: "The strong and coordinated international pressure needed to break the diplomatic deadlock is lacking... . Russia’s position raises particular questions about the format’s effectiveness. It is not only a Minsk Group co-chair but also has major strategic interests in the South Caucasus and supplies arms to both sides of the conflict."

The full report, as is usually the case with the ICG, is worth reading. But this one is especially foreboding.

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/67563

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The report's authors noted that in Baku, the planning for a military solution to the conflict appears to be getting more detailed: "Baku has increasingly emphasised a military solution, publicly and privately. Strategic planners discuss this in much more specific terms than even a year ago. Air strikes are mentioned as a first stage in any offensive, targeting air defences, then infrastructure. 'We are confident we can retake a significant amount of territory in a relatively short time and force the Armenians to make a deal', said one." Armenians, meanwhile, are wondering if it may be worth carrying out a preemptive strike against Azerbaijan while the military balance is not too far in the latter's favor.

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/67563

I have been wondering that for a while now......didn't want to sound like a war monger but that comes across as a logical choice considering the actions of Azerbaijan, however I bet Russia would stop us dead cold.

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Command Of Army Of Defense Of The Nagorno Karabakh Republic

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I have been wondering that for a while now......didn't want to sound like a war monger but that comes across as a logical choice considering the actions of Azerbaijan, however I bet Russia would stop us dead cold.

There were such logical choices back in 1993-94, when azeris were on their knees, we could have had more lands if we wanted, but regional players said no.
The geopolitical climate has not changed that much. Main difference, if one side could kill thousands in a week, now the potential target is tens of thousands
because of advanced system like Smerch etc.

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

There you go, it has finally been said.
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Armenia to get CSTO support if attacked

September 30, 2013 - 18:04 AMT
PanARMENIAN.Net - All the provisions of the Charter of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) apply to Armenia, as a CSTO member, and in case of a military strike against Armenia, these norms will come into force, director general of the Institute for Caspian Cooperation Sergei Mikheev said when commenting on Azerbaijan’s threats to use force against Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh.
However, as he noted during Moscow-Yerevan spacebridge, Karbakh positions itself as an independent state and not as part of Armenia, and, therefore, it’s beyond the CSTO jurisdiction, according to Armenia Today.
For his part, head of the analytical center at MGIMO Institute of International Studies Andrey Kazantsev commented on Armenia’s decision to join the Customs Union, what, in his opinion, was a strategic move. “The CSTO membership and the Organization’s balancing role in the South Caucasus are of great value for Armenia,” he said.
Meanwhile, according to Novosti Armenia, representative of the CSTO Secretariat, professors Igor Panarin, said that all issues are being resolved within the CSTO in a balanced way.
The Collective Security Treaty Organization is an intergovernmental military alliance which was signed on May 15, 1992. The CSTO employs a "rotating presidency" system in which the country leading the CSTO alternates every year.

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Mher]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

There were such logical choices back in 1993-94, when azeris were on their knees, we could have had more lands if we wanted, but regional players said no.
The geopolitical climate has not changed that much. Main difference, if one side could kill thousands in a week, now the potential target is tens of thousands
because of advanced system like Smerch etc.

Last year I spoke with two veterens in Gyumri who were leaders of their respective detachments during the war. Their explanation was: no it wasn't that simple. We were running out of manpower ourselves. We had defended land that was ours, land that was familiar to us. What would we have done beyond our mountains. We would have found ourselves on the offensive, on the plains that we had no familiarity with, no desire to control, and no man power to control .

[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

There is also the issue of extended supply lines and securing them.

Last year I spoke with two veterens in Gyumri who were leaders of their respective detachments during the war. Their explanation was: no it wasn't that simple. We were running out of manpower ourselves. We had defended land that was ours, land that was familiar to us. What would we have done beyond our mountains. We would have found ourselves on the offensive, on the plains that we had no familiarity with, no desire to control, and no man power to control .

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Armenian Army
Special forces