Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Armenian priest (2nd left) in Russia's army

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

A very disturbing article I would like to hear what Zoravar has to say regarding this and any maps that would further locate the mentioned regions and roots?

Thanks for posting the article. There is nothing disturbing in it. It is just a scenario that is well known to all sides.

Anyways, I will provide some comments on it:

President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev frequently announced a possible
military solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem in case of ruining
of the negotiation process.

There are no reasons to doubt that the armed forces of Azerbaijan
have a plan of operation for taking of Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent
territories controlled by Armenian armed forces.

Nothing new there.

It is possible to presume with a big degree of probability
that operation of the armed forces of Azerbaijan for taking of
Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijani territories outside of it controlled
by Armenian forces makes provisions for simultaneous offensive in
the following main directions:

- from Murovdag mountain ridge with a task to reach Kelbadzhar (by
airborne and mountain rifle units, provisions are definitely made
for operations of assault units from helicopters and most likely for
limited landing of special units on parachutes);

- towards Terter-Agdere and further along the Sarsang water reservoir,
Terter River and Murovdag ridge with reaching of the line of Tutkhun
and Bulandykhsu rivers and follow-up joining to the Azerbaijani forces
in the area of Kelbadzhar (strikes can be delivered in the joining
directions to the north and south of the Sarasang water reservoir);

- from the side of the Karabakh plain in the main direction of
Agdam-Khodzhaly-Khankendki (Stepanakert) along the Karkarchay River;

- from the side of the Milskaya plain in the directions of: Khodzhavend
- Shusha, Fizuli - Gadrut - Dzhebrail, Goradiz - Dzhebrail - Zangilan
(in the Geyanskaya steppe along the Araks River bordering Iran).

Nice strategy. One major problem with this scenario: In order to attack, one needs to assemble his forces (not disperse them) and have definite superiority over the defenders.
To launch major offensives on all the above mentioned fronts, the Azerbaijani army will need to be 3 times as large as they are now. With the current compostion of their armed forces and numbers of soldiers, tanks etc. they would be able to mount serious attacks from a maximum of 2 directions and keep some troops in reserve. By commiting everything they got (big mistake), they might be able to move on 3 fronts, and still, their ranks will be on the thin side.

These strikes should split and fragment defense of the Armenian party
and be developed as fast as possible in depth to prevent delivery of
reserves from Armenia proper.

Our side should be watching them on all possible attack axis and stop them in their tracks at predetermined choke points. Rapid deployment of our assets from the rear will be essential to stop any breakthrough that the Azeris may have achieved.

There is no doubt that the offensive will be preceded by massive blows of bomber and attack aviation, tactical missile systems Tochka-U
and long-range artillery at the most important nodes of the enemy
defense and its populated spots (including the blows for the purpose
of liquidation and expulsion of civilians, we should not have any
illusions about this).

That will work to our advantage politically as well as militarily. If they use their precious few Tochkas and long range artillery/aviation on our civilian population centers instead of on our troops, then our soldier's life on the front will be easier.

It is obvious that the air force of Azerbaijan will try to "blind"
the air defense forces of the enemy using the anti-radar missiles
KH-58 purchased supposedly in Ukraine.

I have no info that the Azeris have the KH-58 anti-radar missile in ther inventory. In case they do, these are pre 1991 produced units that were left in Ukraine prior to the break-up of the Soviet Union. These missiles do not have a indefinite shelf-life. I am not sure they will do their job properly.

For combat operations Azerbaijan can use (taking into account the
reserves) not less than 60,000 servicemen, 250-300 tanks, up to
300 light combat armored vehicles, 250-300 field artillery guns and
multiple rocket launchers, up to 50 combat airplanes and the same
quantity of combat and transport combat helicopters of the armed
forces of Azerbaijan.

In case of major war, they will need to mobilize much more than these numbers. That wil not go unnoticed...
In case they launch a surprise attack with what they got, they can do it on a maximum of 2 fronts while keeping some of their forces in reserve (as I mentioned earlier).

In case of beginning of a full-scale Armenian-Azerbaijani war the
Armenian party, despite the air superiority of the enemy in the air,
will most likely try to deliver a decisive blow in the direction
of Mingechevir (Mingechaur) and to block the northwestern group of
enemy forces (the third and fourth army corps formations) between the
Mingechivirskoe (Mingechaurskoe) water reservoir, Murovgdag ridge and
Azerbaijani-Georgian border (along the Iori River) and to defeat the
first army corps and to reach the line of the Kura and Araks rivers
through the Milskaya plain. It will also try to block attempts to
attack the Armenian territory by forces of the fifth army corps of
the Azerbaijani army (along with this, special attention will be paid
to defense of the Zangezurskoe direction).

These are some of our contingency plans. On the field, nothing is expected to work as planned, that's why we have generals to come up with new ideas as the situation develops.

If the Armenian party managed to bring these intentions into
life this will mean a military defeat of Azerbaijan and status of
Nagorno-Karabakh will be confirmed on the terms of Yerevan. However,
probability of such a turn of events is not quite obvious.

It must be obvious to Aliyev. Otherwise he would have attacked a long time ago.

Of course, duration of hostilities and fate of the parties will be
determined by interference or non-interference (which is extremely
unlikely) of powerful third countries.

The Azeris would love to cature Artsakh in a short period of time, thus preventing any interference. Guess what...Saakashvili tried that on S. Ossetia.
A quick war is not going to happen in Artsakh. Our defenses are well prepared and our army is very strong. We will drag the war as much as it takes to come out on top both militarily and politically.

All this will lead to a very serious international crisis into which
Russia will definitely be involved.

Definitly, Putin/Medvedev are not going to just sit and watch a major war happening in their backyard.

It is also necessary to presume that this crisis may lead to
aggravation of the situation on the borders of Georgia with South
Ossetia and Abkhazia.

The more the reason for Russia to involve itself politically and/or militarily.

In any case, threats of Baku to solve the problem
of Nagorno-Karabakh by the military way are voiced regularly and have
until recently been intended mostly for internal consumption.

Yes, we all know that.

If these threats come true, unilateral unleashing of war will
inevitably place Azerbaijan into a position if not aggressor than
at least the party to blame for the new war with consequences
unpredictable for it.

That is a given. They also are in danger of loosing a lot more than that...

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

…………..you can’t get much range on them KH-58 unless you launch them from your platform (Azeri SU-25 or Mig-25…Mig-29 can’t do it) high in altitude where it will put the aircraft no less that 100km away in range of the Armenian air defenses.

KarotheGreat, the SU-25s came into service in early 1980s and many variants have been built.

Correct.
The only Azeri aircraft that can launch the KH-58 anti-radar missile (homes on radiation emitted by the radar) is the Sukoi Su-24. They have a few of these strike aircraft.

Also if I am not mistaken you can fool those missiles by turning off the SAMs radiation (Radar) and drive to a new location just in case it has a memory. The author also assumes that Armenians are going to rush halfheartedly into the plain to meet the enemy.

The classical SAM vs aircraft war. There is a counter for every tactic or weapon.
The NATO forces expended hundreds of anti-radar missiles over Serbia to supress Serbian air defense. They destroyed very few SAMs. Azeris have probably very few KH-58s (if any).

Knowing my people we will wait until they get into the mountains and valleys where they will get trapped.

Indeed, that is what I called "choke points" in my previous post.

I see, you are asking if SU-25s are still being manufactured today. Not sure about that and I doubt Russians are still making them but it is possible I suppose. I know Georgia had a manufacturing plant for SU-25 that got bombed by Russian during their war.

During Soviet times the Su-25 close support aircraft were made in two factories:
The Tbilissi plant in Georgia made the single seaters. It no longer produces new ones.
The Ulan-Ude plant in Siberia made the 2 seaters. It is on their product list. It is reported that the Russian airforce wants to order a few, but nothing confirmed yet. http://www.uuaz.ru/production/product_e.html

[ArmeniaR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Do you know when whas the last Su-25 made in georgia?

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Thanks for the link ZORAVAR.
The performance shown on the SU-25UB is very impressive, operating out of a short +2000ft runway with close to 10000lbs of ordinance and still be able to engage enemy aircraft with air-to-air missiles and a 30 MM cannon up to speeds of 500MPH.............it also has a Tailhook as a badge of honor, no descend self respecting military airplane would be caught without it.

I wonder if Armenian Air force has any plans to turn these two seater trainers to double as an ECM and recon platform (SAM hunter?) if feasible. No such SU-25 variant exists that I know of, maybe it is because of its altitude restrictions and lack of room for required equipment.

Do you know when whas the last Su-25 made in georgia?

I know the prototype first flew in 2001.
The SU-25KM nick-named scorpion is the modernized version which has better performance (new engines) with increased survivability and pinpoint accuracy in weapons delivery and mission flight planning, for example.
It is also up to NATO standards.

[Hye]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Thank you Zoravar for the posts. Don't hesitate to post such articles I can speak on the behalf of everyone here we are waiting. We are waiting for your personal openion and senarios too if you can tell us.

i know you have talked about them but in my opinon the weapons that worry me the most in azeri inventory are the the Tochka and the smerch I'm afraid these would davestate our defenses and could be very effective. Can you innform me please how they are guided and weather they are acurate? As far as I'm concerned because we lack a supperior airforce with superiority fighters, UAVs and bombers we don't have effective counters to these systems. Because to destroy them first you need to find them and after you find them you have to be quick and presise.


Zoravar can you and may you compare Su-25 with US A-10 close support planes?

The other day I was talking to a lebanese millitary analyst and he told me that in order to operate S-300 you need certain codes that only Russia can provide and even if Armenian Army has S-300 units independant of Russians still we can't operate them alone we still need the Russians in any case. Is this true?

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Thank you Zoravar for the posts. Don't hesitate to post such articles I can speak on the behalf of everyone here we are waiting. We are waiting for your personal openion and senarios too if you can tell us.

You are welcome.

i know you have talked about them but in my opinon the weapons that worry me the most in azeri inventory are the the Tochka and the smerch I'm afraid these would davestate our defenses and could be very effective. Can you innform me please how they are guided and weather they are acurate?

Indeed.
Tochka is an extremely accurate guided missile with a range of 120km. The Azeris have a few of these. They are not going to use them against our front lines. These missiles are more intended to be used against high value targets in the rear, like command posts, airfields, troop concentration areas etc.
More details about the Tochka system on the manufacturer's website:http://www.kbm.ru/en/product/ttms/tochka-u

On the other hand, the Smerch is ideal for breaching heavy defenses. It is an 800 kg unguided rocket with a 250 kg warhead. Each mobile Smerch launcher vehicle will fire a salvo of 12 rockets. It is easy to imagine the damage that just one single vehicle can inflict. I expect our enemies will be able to neutralize our defenses with this weapon (if they use it properly). Fighting under constant thread of these heavyweight will not be easy for us. But we do have some sort of a cheaper Chinese made equivalent to the Smerch and we can do the same to them.
More details on the Smerch on the manufacturer's website: http://www.splav.org/en/arms/smerch/index.asp

As far as I'm concerned because we lack a superior airforce with superiority fighters, UAVs and bombers we don't have effective counters to these systems. Because to destroy them first you need to find them and after you find them you have to be quick and presise.

There are many ways to locate these Smerch batteries: scouts, artillery spotting radar etc.
One method to destroy them is by our Mi-24 helicopter gunships (flying very low) while a couple of our strike Su-25s will be doing a diversionary mock attack to occupy the Azeri air defense systems and interceptors. It is not going to be easy.

We can overcome anything. Carefull planning, wise tactics and brave people are all we need.

Zoravar can you and may you compare Su-25 with US A-10 close support planes?

I suggest you google about them. This thread is not the correct place to compare aircraft that are not going to face each other over artsakh.

The other day I was talking to a lebanese millitary analyst and he told me that in order to operate S-300 you need certain codes that only Russia can provide and even if Armenian Army has S-300 units independant of Russians still we can't operate them alone we still need the Russians in any case. Is this true

I am not aware about such codes. But I can tell you this: without the Russians supplying spare parts and replacement missiles, a complex system like an S-300 will not be operational for very long.

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I know the prototype first flew in 2001.
The SU-25KM nick-named scorpion is the modernized version which has better performance (new engines) with increased survivability and pinpoint accuracy in weapons delivery and mission flight planning, for example.
It is also up to NATO standards.

Don't believe too much in their propagandish brochures. The Georgians cannot build a new SU-25 from scratch. They still may (or may not) be able to make fuselages and wings. But the Russians will not supply them engines, avionics, landing gears etc....
The Scorpion they are are advertizing is just a reworked/modernized existing aircraft. That's it.

BTW, their factory was bombed during the August 2008 conflict. The extant of damage is not known. Here is the website of the Tbillisi factory: http://www.tam.ge/

[ArmeniaR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Zoravar can you and may you compare Su-25 with US A-10 close support planes?

Yes you can compare those to aircrafts with each other, here is a nice video of compare Su-25 and A-10 of an American expert...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sJKBHllMFc&feature=related

And about the S-300, yes there are code's of course, if you buy a car you get the key's of that car, not the manufacturer...

[ArmeniaR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

During the time of Boris Yeltsin, there ware many military hardware transported to Armenia, also some tactical ballistic missiles SCUD-B and C, whats up with those?