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Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan
I think our strategy is a good one and is new thus it will take some time to implement and bear fruit. Making it harder for the enemy to kill our soldiers and citizens by taking and holding strategic positions seems to be working. We can see it is working because of the fact that these new attacks are coming from newer places which are harder to infiltrate plus they are being caught/killed. This strategy will leave fewer avenues for attack and expose the attacker to much greater risks. The other factor is the use of technology which has been discussed in the form of motion sensors, night vision equipment.. I think the combination of factors like these will take care of this problem. As for war..i cannot say that i agree with Iondontsi that we are looking at a small to medium size war. I think the level of armnament on both sides is huge and the resumption of full blown hostilities will have devastating effects on both sides due to the fact that both sides are now much better at killing then they were in the previous war. Even if the conflict is intended to be a short/small war by either side- it has the potential and i would say is very likely to develop into a much larger battle then intended. Add to this the possible involvement of outside countries and this is some seriously dangerous stuff we are looking at. I think from the military perspective the status quo is good for Armenia because leads to strengthening of defensive positions and security of our people. What is not good about the status quo is the economic situation due to blockades and uncertainty. In addition to all this, the world is in the midths of great changes with new and old powers emerging and other declining, with the war between shia and suni, and xxxs.. these are all uncertainties bearing potential risks some of which cannot be foreseen nor mitigated. These attacks by the azeris do some damage because they kill some soldiers but the greater effect is that these actions are forcing Armenia and Artsagh to strengthen their defensive positions. Once the needed military adjustments are made at the border the azeris will no longer be able to apply this kind of pressure on us and will have to go to war against a strengthened defense or negotiate for peace or maintain status quo.. Of these options the status quo is probably the most likely one but again it is not in Armenia's interest economically. The uncertainty in the region is increasing and so are the risks.
I think our strategy is a good one and is new thus it will take some time to implement and bear fruit. Making it harder for the enemy to kill our soldiers and citizens by taking and holding strategic positions seems to be working. We can see it is working because of the fact that these new attacks are coming from newer places which are harder to infiltrate plus they are being caught/killed. This strategy will leave fewer avenues for attack and expose the attacker to much greater risks. The other factor is the use of technology which has been discussed in the form of motion sensors, night vision equipment.. I think the combination of factors like these will take care of this problem. As for war..i cannot say that i agree with Iondontsi that we are looking at a small to medium size war. I think the level of armnament on both sides is huge and the resumption of full blown hostilities will have devastating effects on both sides due to the fact that both sides are now much better at killing then they were in the previous war. Even if the conflict is intended to be a short/small war by either side- it has the potential and i would say is very likely to develop into a much larger battle then intended. Add to this the possible involvement of outside countries and this is some seriously dangerous stuff we are looking at. I think from the military perspective the status quo is good for Armenia because leads to strengthening of defensive positions and security of our people. What is not good about the status quo is the economic situation due to blockades and uncertainty. In addition to all this, the world is in the midths of great changes with new and old powers emerging and other declining, with the war between shia and suni, and xxxs.. these are all uncertainties bearing potential risks some of which cannot be foreseen nor mitigated. These attacks by the azeris do some damage because they kill some soldiers but the greater effect is that these actions are forcing Armenia and Artsagh to strengthen their defensive positions. Once the needed military adjustments are made at the border the azeris will no longer be able to apply this kind of pressure on us and will have to go to war against a strengthened defense or negotiate for peace or maintain status quo.. Of these options the status quo is probably the most likely one but again it is not in Armenia's interest economically. The uncertainty in the region is increasing and so are the risks.
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