Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Chubs]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan



The police have BTR-80s? How many?

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The Police Force of Armenia carried out professional and tactical exercises in Metsamor city, in the area of the nuclear power plant.

[ArmeniaSacra]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

he Oil falling is more important than any military, political, economic development out there. It could be the biggest development for our nations well being. I think the IMF prediction was made before most recent, more extreme decline. In October, the Azeris had to adjust their 2015 budget from oil being based on $100/barrel to $90. Well now the price of Brent is $70/Barrel. Despite the various attempts at manipulating numbers such as saying "oil only account for 45% of economy", or "non-energy sector growing", the bottom undeniable fact is oil accounts for about 74% of all government revenue. http://www.academia.edu/8149729/Why_...an_in_English_
Given the fact that year-to-year oil prices are down roughly 33% and that oil account for 74% of the economy, Azerbaijan will be receiving 25% less revenue in the upcoming year. That's 9 billion dollars. They can't cut the budget because it will cause panic and mass civil unrest. So they'll have to tap into their SOCAR Oil Fund which officially stand under 30 billion dollars, but most likely significantly less. When this fund runs out is when real instability will start. But let's just say if prices stay where they are for the next 12 months (which most predictions says they will), Azerbaijan won't be talking as big.

Agreed!

While this is great news for Armenia, lets remember who this is affecting greatly: Russia. Russia is predicted to hit a recession in 2015, possibly slightly effecting states dependent on their economy. We might experience some migrant issues, along with currency issues.

This is a bit of a problem for Azerbaijan, considering they will have to dip into reserves for their insane spending

Fun fact: Azerbaijani exports, are dominated by crude petroleum, making up 87% of exports in 2012, thats 9% more than Saudi Arabia.

Agreed also, but let's not forget that Russia's recession runs much more deep than oil prices...their recession could be equally (if not more) attributed to the sanctions

[armnuke]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The Oil falling is more important than any military, political, economic development out there. It could be the biggest development for our nations well being. I think the IMF prediction was made before most recent, more extreme decline. In October, the Azeris had to adjust their 2015 budget from oil being based on $100/barrel to $90. Well now the price of Brent is $70/Barrel. Despite the various attempts at manipulating numbers such as saying "oil only account for 45% of economy", or "non-energy sector growing", the bottom undeniable fact is oil accounts for about 74% of all government revenue. http://www.academia.edu/8149729/Why_...an_in_English_
Given the fact that year-to-year oil prices are down roughly 33% and that oil account for 74% of the economy, Azerbaijan will be receiving 25% less revenue in the upcoming year. That's 9 billion dollars. They can't cut the budget because it will cause panic and mass civil unrest. So they'll have to tap into their SOCAR Oil Fund which officially stand under 30 billion dollars, but most likely significantly less. When this fund runs out is when real instability will start. But let's just say if prices stay where they are for the next 12 months (which most predictions says they will), Azerbaijan won't be talking as big.

Russia has lost $140B in 2014. $100B from falling oil prices, and $40B due to sanctions. The Ruble is literally crying, it has hit an all time low of 54 vs the Dollar. The Armenian Dram saw a huge drop around November 28, from 418 to 435, that's an eight year low. Furthermore, the Dram dropped to 442 yesterday. There was panic, at some exchange outlets it even hit 480! Some banks were not selling Dollars for a couple of hours. Falling oil prices are not really a blessing, because now that the Ruble is floating, it's going to lose its value as oil prices drop and in turn, the Dram will drop because the economy is too dependent on remittances from Russia. With this Customs Union thingy coming, I'm not really optimistic.

[Chubs]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Russia has lost $140B in 2014. $100B from falling oil prices, and $40B due to sanctions. The Ruble is literally crying, it has hit an all time low of 54 vs the Dollar. The Armenian Dram saw a huge drop around November 28, from 418 to 435, that's an eight year low. Furthermore, the Dram dropped to 442 yesterday. There was panic, at some exchange outlets it even hit 480! Some banks were not selling Dollars for a couple of hours. Falling oil prices are not really a blessing, because now that the Ruble is floating, it's going to lose its value as oil prices drop and in turn, the Dram will drop because the economy is too dependent on remittances from Russia. With this Customs Union thingy coming, I'm not really optimistic.

These economic issues might be a strategy to allow for the EU and West to swoop in and save the day for countries reliant on the Russian economy...


Western media is out in full force, spreading immense propaganda about the fall of Russia...while at teh same time calling it a recession.

I wonder how this would effect migrants. Bad atmosphere in Russia, bad atmosphere in Armenia..Where to go?

[armnuke]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

These economic issues might be a strategy to allow for the EU and West to swoop in and save the day for countries reliant on the Russian economy...


Western media is out in full force, spreading immense propaganda about the fall of Russia...while at teh same time calling it a recession.

I wonder how this would effect migrants. Bad atmosphere in Russia, bad atmosphere in Armenia..Where to go?

I wish the Armenian government diversified its economy, rather than relying on exports to/remittances from Russia. Thing is, the currencies of Belarus and Kazakhstan which is also in the Customs Union is largely dependent on the Ruble. Armenian exports will not be competitive in any of these countries, and as a result Armenia will not gain anything from joining the EEU. Armenian wine exports have decreased by 50% already, and 70% of Armenian wine is exported to Russia. Anyway, I just hope the Dram doesn't keep on depreciating, because salaries here are paid in Drams and not Dollars (like when I used to work in Lebanon), this is going to cause the standard of living to plummet. Families that live on remittances from migrants in Russia are having a hard time here in Armenia, that's why the central bank depreciated the Dram so that they could have some additional purchasing power.

[Mher]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The decline of the azeris will not have as much of a positive effect on Armenia as you may think. It may even have a negative impact. A inevitable economic collapse of azerbadjan will lead to government change. Without a nest egg to protect and armed to the teeth this country will be more dangerous. The only power which can and probably will keep it under control is Russia.

I absolutey agree with that point. But you can't develop a stable nation in the current sitaution with so much budget going to defense, with the costant threat of war, with 90% of borders closed, mandatory 2 year military service for all, and having zero leverage against Russia. The Azerbaijan situation will eventually have to be adressed with a final solution if Armenia is going to become a developed country. At least like this we can have an estimate of when it'll be and be politically and militarily prepared.

Agreed!
Agreed also, but let's not forget that Russia's recession runs much more deep than oil prices...their recession could be equally (if not more) attributed to the sanctions

I agree. I think this will eventually be worked out in the near future. Europe needs Russia and Russia needs Europe. Merkell is way too prgramatic and intelligent to be entangled in American adventures, whose burden will only be felt by her country. And Ukraine is on the verge of collapse and the EU would love a way to get them off their hands and Ukraine could use the help. Russia will eventually get back up, it's just a matter of how long it'll take.

Russia has lost $140B in 2014. $100B from falling oil prices, and $40B due to sanctions. The Ruble is literally crying, it has hit an all time low of 54 vs the Dollar. The Armenian Dram saw a huge drop around November 28, from 418 to 435, that's an eight year low. Furthermore, the Dram dropped to 442 yesterday. There was panic, at some exchange outlets it even hit 480! Some banks were not selling Dollars for a couple of hours. Falling oil prices are not really a blessing, because now that the Ruble is floating, it's going to lose its value as oil prices drop and in turn, the Dram will drop because the economy is too dependent on remittances from Russia. With this Customs Union thingy coming, I'm not really optimistic.

It's really a dark situation. Even in the dark and confusion of the 2008-09 recession we weren't dealing with this. We are joining the EEU at the worst possible time. The problem customs union or not, Armenia is always going to be dependent on the Russian economy simply based on the fact that such a significant part of the population depends on remmitence from Russian-Armenians. Unitl we develop an improved economy, we can be in whatever Union we want, but we'll still be vulnerable to the Russian market.

These economic issues might be a strategy to allow for the EU and West to swoop in and save the day for countries reliant on the Russian economy...
Western media is out in full force, spreading immense propaganda about the fall of Russia...while at teh same time calling it a recession.
I wonder how this would effect migrants. Bad atmosphere in Russia, bad atmosphere in Armenia..Where to go?

its complicated and there's so many layers,. Anyone who claims they know exactly what the reason is just talking out of their ---. Saudis have a motivation to cripple Russia to get them out of Syria, America has a reason to cripple Russia to get it out of Ukraine and to force Iran to negotiate. Iraq needs prices higher to survive. And America wouldn't want gas below the $70-75/barell level because below that the new production methods that are leading ot increased supply go away. Yet the Saudis would want the price to drop because it can reclaim their dominance as well as bring prices up in the long term. I think it's more of a case of them wanting to see the EEU fail before it gains traction that necessarily having influence of these 3 minor countries. Kazakhestan is in Asia, Belarus is a dictatorship, and Armenia, the closest thing to a civilized nation in that region is not significant enough in size for them to care.

And I don't think anyone is gonna go back to Armenia. That's why a year ago, Russia threat of deporting 200,000 Armenians was so serious. If they were to return to Armenia they would only contribute to the instability with lack of jobs and means to support themselves and the people they were supporting before.

I wish the Armenian government diversified its economy, rather than relying on exports to/remittances from Russia. Thing is, the currencies of Belarus and Kazakhstan which is also in the Customs Union is largely dependent on the Ruble. Armenian exports will not be competitive in any of these countries, and as a result Armenia will not gain anything from joining the EEU. Armenian wine exports have decreased by 50% already, and 70% of Armenian wine is exported to Russia. Anyway, I just hope the Dram doesn't keep on depreciating, because salaries here are paid in Drams and not Dollars (like when I used to work in Lebanon), this is going to cause the standard of living to plummet. Families that live on remittances from migrants in Russia are having a hard time here in Armenia, that's why the central bank depreciated the Dram so that they could have some additional purchasing power.

you know the problem is that Armenian exports aren't wanted anywhere. Outside of alcohol, Armenia doesnt export anything on a large scale but raw materials. For Armenia to develop as a nation this needs to this change. the government had done a decent job with economic zones, and some policies, and promoting the growth of IT. Armenia's IT sector has grown by 20% annually since 2008. It is projected to be a billion dollar economy by 2018. But because were a small country that is still developing we can't avoid the consequences of major developments around us.
Glad to hear that you are in Armenia. It's great to have someone's perspective from within.

[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The Saudis are a puppet state very much like all the other Arab states. They have been told to lower the price of oil or else by Washington and that is what they do. Russia has other economic strengths and oil is not going to break it but it does hurt. To be honest I think the world economy badly needed this drop in oil prices, I hope this will increase aggregate demand. Most economic situations have a bright side as well as a dark side. Cheaper oil prices my be a blessing in disguise but the only way these low prices will last is if recession does not end.

[Ak105]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Stop talking about this oil BS. Who cares about the baboons oil?

[Chubs]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Stop talking about this oil BS. Who cares about the baboons oil?

Oil revenue effects Azeri military spending, therefore its relevant. I believe we should move this conversation to the sub Mher created for this topic, and get back on track.