Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

It's not just that Azerbaijan purchases 85% of its weapons from Russia. It's the fact that it purchases ALL of its most advanced weapons from Russia- weapons the equivalent of which it can't purchase from anywhere else ...

I know it is hard for many to understand but the fact that the azeris are spending all that money on Russian weapons instead of American or European weapons is a good thing for Armenia. If Russia did not sell them weapons they would buy them from elsewhere. Russia and Armenia know Russian weapons and how to counter them. Russia uses some of the money from azeri weapon sales to arm Armenia. By buying weapons from rusia the azeris are in fact making us stronger vs if they bought them from Europe which has repeatedly showed no interest in arming Armenia nor could we afford their weapons. The facts are rather clear regarding this matter but again it is easy and politically lucrative for many to make this seem like Russian betrayal of Armenia. People simply do not understand that Armenia has no choice regarding her geostrategic situation. Western life has taught us that we have choices about everything but the fact is that there are some things you do not get to choose. Our geopolitical situation dictates our choices and for now there is not much we can do about that. I do not tire of stating the truth because it is important to understand what is truth and what is bs. The difference between the two is often the difference between life and death of a nation.

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

It's not just that Azerbaijan purchases 85% of its weapons from Russia. It's the fact that it purchases ALL of its most advanced weapons from Russia- weapons the equivalent of which it can't purchase from anywhere else ...

Some no, but mostly yes. It's an important point so I think it deserves a closer look. Using this as a source for what weapons Azerbaijan has, let us look at what Azerbaijan has bought from who and see if it could not have bought at least the equivalent from elsewhere. Let's assume that the US and Europe would never sell advanced weapons to Azerbaijan even though this may not necessarily be true.

Small arms

In the anti-tank missile section, the most advanced Russian weapon is the Kornet ATM. Kornet is indeed pretty advanced, Hezbollah and Syria/Iraq use it all the time. I don't think we have ever seen it on camera but we should have Kornets as well. But you can see that Israel also provides an advanced ATM to Azerbaijan called the Spike-LR. The Israeli B-300 is not really advanced but the US uses it and calls it SMAW.

Vehicles

In the tanks section, the most advanced tank is the T-90S provided by Russia in that multi-billion dollar deal. The T-90S is a good tank but as you astutely once noted, it is still more or less a modernized T-72 of which we can more or less get the same for cheaper by upgrading our own tanks. It may also perform poorly after what we saw in Georgia, especially in Artsakh's mountains as a part of an invading force. Interesting point here is what's written under the T-72: Upgraded by Israeli Elbyt Systems on T-72 "Aslan" (SIM-2) modernise packet.. Here we can see that if Azerbaijan ever wanted to upgrade its T-72s, it doesn't need Russia and an alternative can and has been found in Israel once more. But coming back to the T-90S, there is a clear alternative to which Azerbaijan might have opted for that would have been unfamiliar to us and that's the Israeli Merkava tank. Israel hasn't completed an export deal on those tanks but has offered them to Turkey (canceled due to tensions) and Colombia. It is better for us to face tanks we are familiar with like Russian ones than those we are not. It would help when we capture them too like the first war General note: Turkey is developing/developed its own tank and Azerbaijan has expressed interest.

In IFV section, the BMP-3 is the most advanced IFV and was also part of the Russian multi-billion dollar deal. BMP-3 is also a good IFV but once again, Azerbaijan has very real alternatives in, where else, Israel once again. Israel has a more modern IFV called Namer that it is apparently already discussing selling to Azerbaijan. Before moving on from IFVs, if you check under BMP-2 you will see that Israeli company Elbit has modernized their BMP-2s as well. Russia recently is alleged to have upgraded some of Armenia's BMP-2s to BMP-2 "Berezhok".

In APC section, the BTR-80 variants are the most advanced vehicles Azerbaijan has of which we also recently received from Russia. APCs have all kinds of alternatives worldwide anyway.

I won't go through Armored Cars because it's hard to consider them advanced but you can see just how many different countries have provided Azerbaijan with all its needs here.

Artillery

We can see here that Azerbaijan has Tochkas provided by Ukraine. Ukraine is acting as an alternative here because Tochkas are Russian weapons that Azerbaijan could have bought from Russia. Let them buy from sh!tty Ukraine We have Tochkas from Russia anyway though we still don't know about why we never see their missiles on camera...

Under MRLS. The TOS-1 doesn't have alternatives as far as I know. It might cause major damage to us but here's the secret about the TOS-1: it's a very short range weapon (single digit kilometers). Something tells me that when the Russian Army only uses 15 of them and Azerbaijan uses 18 of them, it might not be the best weapon out there.
Here is where it gets interesting, the Smerch. This is probably their best purchase from Russia and will almost certainly cause us headaches. Does Armenia have Smerchs? The long standing assertion is that we do though I don't think we have seen them on camera. What we know for sure is that the Russian base in Gyumri does have Smerchs so at least we know that these weapons do have a history of flying to Armenia. But assuming we don't have Smerch, we recently found out that we have something better as an alternative and that's the Chinese AR1A which is in the most basic terms a longer range Smerch. And trust that if Armenia was able to get AR1As as alternatives, cash cow Azerbaijan could have gotten them instead as well. Before moving on from MRLS, we can see also that Azerbaijan has acquired solid artillery from Israel as well.

Under self-propelled artillery, there is the Russian Msta acquired in the multi-billion dollar deal. Msta is good but Belarus, Israel and Turkey have already provided Azerbaijan with alternatives.

Air Force and Air Defense

I recommend reading the full short article on Azerbaijan's Air Force which I'll use as a source for what aircraft and defenses they have. You can see in the text that NATO has been helping modernize Azerbaijan's airfields and Belarus (fellow EEU member) + Ukraine (consistently anti-Armenian) have been modernizing Azerbaijan's MiG-29s as (bad) alternatives to Russia. Azerbaijan has bought Su-25s from Georgia instead of Russia, we have done the same except we bought Su-25s from Slovakia.

As part of that multi-billion dollar deal with Russia, Azerbaijan got Mi-35s. This is one case where Azerbaijan probably doesn't have alternatives even though the article falsely states that Azerbaijan has Turkish attack helicopters, falsely because the source it cites doesn't exist. The Mi-35 is a great helicopter but it's still just a helicopter. To calm us down, sandal wearing ISIS members recently shot down two recently purchased Mi-35s in Iraq. If they can do it with old ass Soviet technology, we can do it too. As for UAVs, well... it speaks for itself does it? Israel is undisputed king of UAVs in Azerbaijan which Russia can't even compete with.

Finally, anti-air defense. No question here, S-300 doesn't really have an alternative Azerbaijan can purchase even if Israel has sold it a big load of anti-air systems as well. Good thing is that Russia has given us S-300 as well. But even without S-300, Armenia's Air Force has always been weak and would have already faced a big challenge. Azerbaijan's disproportionate spending on AAD is actually as much against Iran as us.

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In general, it is better for us that Russia arm Azerbaijan than another country. We would be more familiar with the systems, it would make it easier for us to use them when we capture them and it is better for Russia to maintain some kind of influence over Azerbaijan with weapons deals than no influence. For the record, a big amount of the advanced weaponry purchases that Azerbaijan does from Russia and especially Israel are aimed at their Navy which that report probably includes in the cited figure. For obvious reasons, we are not that interested in their Navy. But like their AAD, a neighbor of ours to the south probably is.

[Mher]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Some no, but mostly yes. It's an important point so I think it deserves a closer look. Using this as a source for what weapons Azerbaijan has, let us look at what Azerbaijan has bought from who and see if it could not have bought at least the equivalent from elsewhere. Let's assume that the US and Europe would never sell advanced weapons to Azerbaijan even though this may not necessarily be true.

Small arms

In the anti-tank missile section, the most advanced Russian weapon is the Kornet ATM. Kornet is indeed pretty advanced, Hezbollah and Syria/Iraq use it all the time. I don't think we have ever seen it on camera but we should have Kornets as well. But you can see that Israel also provides an advanced ATM to Azerbaijan called the Spike-LR. The Israeli B-300 is not really advanced but the US uses it and calls it SMAW.

Vehicles

In the tanks section, the most advanced tank is the T-90S provided by Russia in that multi-billion dollar deal. The T-90S is a good tank but as you astutely once noted, it is still more or less a modernized T-72 of which we can more or less get the same for cheaper by upgrading our own tanks. It may also perform poorly after what we saw in Georgia, especially in Artsakh's mountains as a part of an invading force. Interesting point here is what's written under the T-72: Upgraded by Israeli Elbyt Systems on T-72 "Aslan" (SIM-2) modernise packet.. Here we can see that if Azerbaijan ever wanted to upgrade its T-72s, it doesn't need Russia and an alternative can and has been found in Israel once more. But coming back to the T-90S, there is a clear alternative to which Azerbaijan might have opted for that would have been unfamiliar to us and that's the Israeli Merkava tank. Israel hasn't completed an export deal on those tanks but has offered them to Turkey (canceled due to tensions) and Colombia. It is better for us to face tanks we are familiar with like Russian ones than those we are not. It would help when we capture them too like the first war General note: Turkey is developing/developed its own tank and Azerbaijan has expressed interest.

In IFV section, the BMP-3 is the most advanced IFV and was also part of the Russian multi-billion dollar deal. BMP-3 is also a good IFV but once again, Azerbaijan has very real alternatives in, where else, Israel once again. Israel has a more modern IFV called Namer that it is apparently already discussing selling to Azerbaijan. Before moving on from IFVs, if you check under BMP-2 you will see that Israeli company Elbit has modernized their BMP-2s as well. Russia recently is alleged to have upgraded some of Armenia's BMP-2s to BMP-2 "Berezhok".

In APC section, the BTR-80 variants are the most advanced vehicles Azerbaijan has of which we also recently received from Russia. APCs have all kinds of alternatives worldwide anyway.

I won't go through Armored Cars because it's hard to consider them advanced but you can see just how many different countries have provided Azerbaijan with all its needs here.

Artillery

We can see here that Azerbaijan has Tochkas provided by Ukraine. Ukraine is acting as an alternative here because Tochkas are Russian weapons that Azerbaijan could have bought from Russia. Let them buy from sh!tty Ukraine We have Tochkas from Russia anyway though we still don't know about why we never see their missiles on camera...

Under MRLS. The TOS-1 doesn't have alternatives as far as I know. It might cause major damage to us but here's the secret about the TOS-1: it's a very short range weapon (single digit kilometers). Something tells me that when the Russian Army only uses 15 of them and Azerbaijan uses 18 of them, it might not be the best weapon out there.
Here is where it gets interesting, the Smerch. This is probably their best purchase from Russia and will almost certainly cause us headaches. Does Armenia have Smerchs? The long standing assertion is that we do though I don't think we have seen them on camera. What we know for sure is that the Russian base in Gyumri does have Smerchs so at least we know that these weapons do have a history of flying to Armenia. But assuming we don't have Smerch, we recently found out that we have something better as an alternative and that's the Chinese AR1A which is in the most basic terms a longer range Smerch. And trust that if Armenia was able to get AR1As as alternatives, cash cow Azerbaijan could have gotten them instead as well. Before moving on from MRLS, we can see also that Azerbaijan has acquired solid artillery from Israel as well.

Under self-propelled artillery, there is the Russian Msta acquired in the multi-billion dollar deal. Msta is good but Belarus, Israel and Turkey have already provided Azerbaijan with alternatives.

Air Force and Air Defense

I recommend reading the full short article on Azerbaijan's Air Force which I'll use as a source for what aircraft and defenses they have. You can see in the text that NATO has been helping modernize Azerbaijan's airfields and Belarus (fellow EEU member) + Ukraine (consistently anti-Armenian) have been modernizing Azerbaijan's MiG-29s as (bad) alternatives to Russia. Azerbaijan has bought Su-25s from Georgia instead of Russia, we have done the same except we bought Su-25s from Slovakia.

As part of that multi-billion dollar deal with Russia, Azerbaijan got Mi-35s. This is one case where Azerbaijan probably doesn't have alternatives even though the article falsely states that Azerbaijan has Turkish attack helicopters, falsely because the source it cites doesn't exist. The Mi-35 is a great helicopter but it's still just a helicopter. To calm us down, sandal wearing ISIS members recently shot down two recently purchased Mi-35s in Iraq. If they can do it with old ass Soviet technology, we can do it too. As for UAVs, well... it speaks for itself does it? Israel is undisputed king of UAVs in Azerbaijan which Russia can't even compete with.

Finally, anti-air defense. No question here, S-300 doesn't really have an alternative Azerbaijan can purchase even if Israel has sold it a big load of anti-air systems as well. Good thing is that Russia has given us S-300 as well. But even without S-300, Armenia's Air Force has always been weak and would have already faced a big challenge. Azerbaijan's disproportionate spending on AAD is actually as much against Iran as us.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In general, it is better for us that Russia arm Azerbaijan than another country. We would be more familiar with the systems, it would make it easier for us to use them when we capture them and it is better for Russia to maintain some kind of influence over Azerbaijan with weapons deals than no influence. For the record, a big amount of the advanced weaponry purchases that Azerbaijan does from Russia and especially Israel are aimed at their Navy which that report probably includes in the cited figure. For obvious reasons, we are not that interested in their Navy. But like their AAD, a neighbor of ours to the south probably is.

Haykakan I would defer my response for now to Federate's response because of time constrain. He does a good job of breaking things down to the detail. I would say despite the limited alternatives available, I would like to see Azerbaijan having attempted to do that. Bought second hand/copycat Chinese weapons at inflated prices from Ukraine, Israel, and China because of limited market, rather than the original Russian version.

One point of my own I would like to add is: It's often Russia or America as source of weapons. Because of the congressional act enacted in the early 90's, as well as the influential Armenian lobby in DC, It's out of the realm of reality for US to sell the equivalent of any of these to Azerbaijan. [ Not to mention with it's entire weapons system based on the Russian weapons, they couldn't really introduce American weapons, but that's besides the point]. So America isn't an alternative.

Azerbaijan bought the S-300PMU2-essentially one tiny small step behind S-400
What Armenia has is the S-300PS

There is vast difference between those though weapons beyond a few letters. Separated by 12 years, they essentially represent the most advanced, and the second most basic S-300 types, respectively. Nobody purchases anything close to the S-300PS anymore. Iran big controversial deal in 2007 was for S-300PMU1. Same for Cyprus' 1997 purchase. Both never received the weapon because they were considered too potent and bound to change the balance of power in their respective conflicts. And Azerbaijan got the S-300PMU2. Now please I would like you tell me where Azerbaijan would have purchased the S-300PMU2, or its American equivalent, if not from Russia.

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Haykakan I would defer my response for now to Federate's response because of time constrain. He does a good job of breaking things down to the detail. I would say despite the limited alternatives available, I would like to see Azerbaijan having attempted to do that. Bought second hand/copycat Chinese weapons at inflated prices from Ukraine, Israel, and China because of limited market, rather than the original Russian version.

Azerbaijan bought the S-300PMU2-essentially one tiny small step behind S-400
What Armenia has is the S-300PS

There is vast difference between those though weapons beyond a few letters. Separated by 12 years, they essentially represent the most advanced, and the second most basic S-300 types, respectively. Nobody purchases anything close to the S-300PS anymore. Iran big controversial deal in 2007 was for S-300PMU1. Same for Cyprus' 1997 purchase. Both never received the weapon because they were considered too potent and bound to change the balance of power in their respective conflicts. And Azerbaijan got the S-300PMU2. Now please I would like you tell me where Azerbaijan would have purchased the S-300PMU2, or its American equivalent, if not from Russia.

Like I was demonstrating in the breakdown, almost all the weapons Azerbaijan bought from Russia have Chinese, Israeli or Turkish alternatives which are more or less as good as the Russian ones. Another "good" thing about the Russian arms deals is that Azerbaijan is getting export models for many of them which tend to be inferior than original Russian versions. Armenia gets original Russian versions per our agreements with them.

The only exception is, as you pointed out, the S-300s. I mentioned that in my post:

Finally, anti-air defense. No question here, S-300 doesn't really have an alternative Azerbaijan can purchase even if Israel has sold it a big load of anti-air systems as well. Good thing is that Russia has given us S-300 as well. But even without S-300, Armenia's Air Force has always been weak and would have already faced a big challenge. Azerbaijan's disproportionate spending on AAD is actually as much against Iran as us.

It is a clear case of them having a superior model than ours. But what should be kept in mind is that Azerbaijan always had the upper-hand when it came to air power. What I mean is that with or without their S-300s, Armenia's Air Force posed little threat to Azerbaijan because we don't have many aircraft. The Su-25s and helicopters we have could all be destroyed without an S-300. We unfortunately saw just how vulnerable we are in this department a few months ago. Where we might actually suffer from Russia's sale of S-300PMU2 is with our ballistic missiles. If anyone can comment on what that system's ability is to shoot down ballistic missiles, it would be welcome.

Side note: the Chinese HQ-9 that Turkey is planning to buy over US Patriot missiles and Russian S-300VM is worth considering as a potential alternative that Azerbaijan might have considered. China's really trying to shop that thing around.

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Mher]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Like I was demonstrating in the breakdown, almost all the weapons Azerbaijan bought from Russia have Chinese, Israeli or Turkish alternatives which are more or less as good as the Russian ones. Another "good" thing about the Russian arms deals is that Azerbaijan is getting export models for many of them which tend to be inferior than original Russian versions. Armenia gets original Russian versions per our agreements with them.

The only exception is, as you pointed out, the S-300s. I mentioned that in my post:



It is a clear case of them having a superior model than ours. But what should be kept in mind is that Azerbaijan always had the upper-hand when it came to air power. What I mean is that with or without their S-300s, Armenia's Air Force posed little threat to Azerbaijan because we don't have many aircraft. The Su-25s and helicopters we have could all be destroyed without an S-300. We unfortunately saw just how vulnerable we are in this department a few months ago. Where we might actually suffer from Russia's sale of S-300PMU2 is with our ballistic missiles. If anyone can comment on what that system's ability is to shoot down ballistic missiles, it would be welcome.

Side note: the Chinese HQ-9 that Turkey is planning to buy over US Patriot missiles and Russian S-300VM is worth considering as a potential alternative that Azerbaijan might have considered. China's really trying to shop that thing around.

Yeah no first time I read the post, I misunderstood the overall direction you were going. That's a lot of good information. Thank you. And i agree The threat isn't air superiority, given our outdated fleet. Give our defensive position, and our limited budget, that is always going to be one of the last areas to addressed.

The emergence of China is really changing the dynamics of the defense industry, with it adding third pole in the field. I seem to have a inherent bias in assuming the Russian systems to be superior simply because of the history and proven track record.

This is from Wiki with the source provided
The S-300PMU-2 Favorite (Russian С-300ПМУ-2 Фаворит – Favourite, DoD designation SA-20B), introduced in 1997, is an upgrade to the S-300PMU-1 with range extended once again to 195 km (121 mi) with the introduction of the 48N6E2 missile. This system is apparently capable against not just short range ballistic missiles, but now also medium range tactical ballistic missiles. It uses the 83M6E2 command and control system, consisting of the 54K6E2 command post vehicle and the 64N6E2 surveillance/detection radar. It employs the 30N6E2 fire control/illumination and guidance radar. Like the S-300PMU-1, 12 TELs can be controlled, with any mix of 5P85SE2 self-propelled and 5P85TE2 trailer launchers. Optionally it can make use of the 96L6E all altitude detection radar and 76N6 low altitude detection radar. http://web.archive.org/web/200601270...s/favorit.html

the S-300 has been the toughest pill to swallow for that reason. That it might very well weaken the deterrent presented by our threat to their pipelines.

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

In small arms fire USA has sold M4 Carbine to Azeris? not good, that rifle is badass

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[ArmeniaSacra]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Armenian Army

The second picture's a metis right?

And what's this talk about our tochka's not having any missiles????