Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Spetsnaz]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Ադրբեջանի զորամասերից մեկում սպանվել է զինծառայող
Մայիս 5, 2015

Սոցիալական ցանցերում ադրբեջանական աղբյուրները հայտնում են, որ երկրի զինված ուժերի զորամասերից մեկում այսօր՝ մայիսի 5-ին, գրանցվել է սպանության դեպք, որի մասին տեղեկությունն առայժմ տեղ չի գտել պաշտոնական աղբյուրներում։

Համաձայն տեկեության, ԶՈւ զորամասերից մեկում ծառայակցի կողմից սպանվել է 1995-ին ծնված և Թարթառի շրջանից զորակոչված Ռաուֆ Բունյադզադեն (Rauf Bünyadzadə)։ Նշվում է նաև, որ նա սպանվել է դանակահարության հետևանքով։ Այլ մանրամասներ առայժմ հայտնի չեն։

Հավելենք, որ 2015-ի մայիսիսն սա Ադրբեջանի զինված ուժերում մահվան ելքով առաջին դեպքն է, որի մասին հայտնի է դարձել։
Այս թեմայով.

http://razm.info/63792

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Eddo is right you need strong AF it will be game changer!
What none of you considered is SIGINT and ELINT systems which can disable most of your air defenses! Israelis have sold this to them, we only can rely on s300 rest of our air defense is VERY vulnerable to jamming.
Read article below some stuff is blown out of proportion but mostly they are correct. if their jamming is marginally successful then we cant go beyond the mountains on our counteroffensive. We will have a standstill and have huge losses when we go to plains. Never underestimate Air Force (helicopters and su25''s) that Azerbaijan owns. They constantly upgrade them, most devastating of which is long range missiles, and close air support with their upgraded targeting system.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/rest...menia-or-iran/

We will most probably not be capturing any territory but maintaining our high ground defensive positions. If we do plan on capturing territory, it won't be to the east (plains). We would go north for Shahumyan which is still lower ground than our current positions but not as bad as the rest of Azerbaijan.



The article is like you said blown out of proportion but it serves as a nice motivator to go that extra mile and make sure we don't underestimate the enemy. The problem with the article obviously is that there is always a level of secrecy maintained in the Armenian military vs the legs-wide-open policy employed by Azerbaijan so it makes its conclusions or assumptions based on incomplete information.

What I liked about the article is its emphasis on the fact that Azerbaijan can really just buy most things from Israel, doesn't even need Russia. I covered this earlier too.

Some no, but mostly yes. It's an important point so I think it deserves a closer look. Using this as a source for what weapons Azerbaijan has, let us look at what Azerbaijan has bought from who and see if it could not have bought at least the equivalent from elsewhere. Let's assume that the US and Europe would never sell advanced weapons to Azerbaijan even though this may not necessarily be true.

Small arms

In the anti-tank missile section, the most advanced Russian weapon is the Kornet ATM. Kornet is indeed pretty advanced, Hezbollah and Syria/Iraq use it all the time. I don't think we have ever seen it on camera but we should have Kornets as well. But you can see that Israel also provides an advanced ATM to Azerbaijan called the Spike-LR. The Israeli B-300 is not really advanced but the US uses it and calls it SMAW.

Vehicles

In the tanks section, the most advanced tank is the T-90S provided by Russia in that multi-billion dollar deal. The T-90S is a good tank but as you astutely once noted, it is still more or less a modernized T-72 of which we can more or less get the same for cheaper by upgrading our own tanks. It may also perform poorly after what we saw in Georgia, especially in Artsakh's mountains as a part of an invading force. Interesting point here is what's written under the T-72: Upgraded by Israeli Elbyt Systems on T-72 "Aslan" (SIM-2) modernise packet.. Here we can see that if Azerbaijan ever wanted to upgrade its T-72s, it doesn't need Russia and an alternative can and has been found in Israel once more. But coming back to the T-90S, there is a clear alternative to which Azerbaijan might have opted for that would have been unfamiliar to us and that's the Israeli Merkava tank. Israel hasn't completed an export deal on those tanks but has offered them to Turkey (canceled due to tensions) and Colombia. It is better for us to face tanks we are familiar with like Russian ones than those we are not. It would help when we capture them too like the first war General note: Turkey is developing/developed its own tank and Azerbaijan has expressed interest.

In IFV section, the BMP-3 is the most advanced IFV and was also part of the Russian multi-billion dollar deal. BMP-3 is also a good IFV but once again, Azerbaijan has very real alternatives in, where else, Israel once again. Israel has a more modern IFV called Namer that it is apparently already discussing selling to Azerbaijan. Before moving on from IFVs, if you check under BMP-2 you will see that Israeli company Elbit has modernized their BMP-2s as well. Russia recently is alleged to have upgraded some of Armenia's BMP-2s to BMP-2 "Berezhok".

In APC section, the BTR-80 variants are the most advanced vehicles Azerbaijan has of which we also recently received from Russia. APCs have all kinds of alternatives worldwide anyway.

I won't go through Armored Cars because it's hard to consider them advanced but you can see just how many different countries have provided Azerbaijan with all its needs here.

Artillery

We can see here that Azerbaijan has Tochkas provided by Ukraine. Ukraine is acting as an alternative here because Tochkas are Russian weapons that Azerbaijan could have bought from Russia. Let them buy from sh!tty Ukraine We have Tochkas from Russia anyway though we still don't know about why we never see their missiles on camera...

Under MRLS. The TOS-1 doesn't have alternatives as far as I know. It might cause major damage to us but here's the secret about the TOS-1: it's a very short range weapon (single digit kilometers). Something tells me that when the Russian Army only uses 15 of them and Azerbaijan uses 18 of them, it might not be the best weapon out there.
Here is where it gets interesting, the Smerch. This is probably their best purchase from Russia and will almost certainly cause us headaches. Does Armenia have Smerchs? The long standing assertion is that we do though I don't think we have seen them on camera. What we know for sure is that the Russian base in Gyumri does have Smerchs so at least we know that these weapons do have a history of flying to Armenia. But assuming we don't have Smerch, we recently found out that we have something better as an alternative and that's the Chinese AR1A which is in the most basic terms a longer range Smerch. And trust that if Armenia was able to get AR1As as alternatives, cash cow Azerbaijan could have gotten them instead as well. Before moving on from MRLS, we can see also that Azerbaijan has acquired solid artillery from Israel as well.

Under self-propelled artillery, there is the Russian Msta acquired in the multi-billion dollar deal. Msta is good but Belarus, Israel and Turkey have already provided Azerbaijan with alternatives.

Air Force and Air Defense

I recommend reading the full short article on Azerbaijan's Air Force which I'll use as a source for what aircraft and defenses they have. You can see in the text that NATO has been helping modernize Azerbaijan's airfields and Belarus (fellow EEU member) + Ukraine (consistently anti-Armenian) have been modernizing Azerbaijan's MiG-29s as (bad) alternatives to Russia. Azerbaijan has bought Su-25s from Georgia instead of Russia, we have done the same except we bought Su-25s from Slovakia.

As part of that multi-billion dollar deal with Russia, Azerbaijan got Mi-35s. This is one case where Azerbaijan probably doesn't have alternatives even though the article falsely states that Azerbaijan has Turkish attack helicopters, falsely because the source it cites doesn't exist. The Mi-35 is a great helicopter but it's still just a helicopter. To calm us down, sandal wearing ISIS members recently shot down two recently purchased Mi-35s in Iraq. If they can do it with old ass Soviet technology, we can do it too. As for UAVs, well... it speaks for itself does it? Israel is undisputed king of UAVs in Azerbaijan which Russia can't even compete with.

Finally, anti-air defense. No question here, S-300 doesn't really have an alternative Azerbaijan can purchase even if Israel has sold it a big load of anti-air systems as well. Good thing is that Russia has given us S-300 as well. But even without S-300, Armenia's Air Force has always been weak and would have already faced a big challenge. Azerbaijan's disproportionate spending on AAD is actually as much against Iran as us.

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In general, it is better for us that Russia arm Azerbaijan than another country. We would be more familiar with the systems, it would make it easier for us to use them when we capture them and it is better for Russia to maintain some kind of influence over Azerbaijan with weapons deals than no influence. For the record, a big amount of the advanced weaponry purchases that Azerbaijan does from Russia and especially Israel are aimed at their Navy which that report probably includes in the cited figure. For obvious reasons, we are not that interested in their Navy. But like their AAD, a neighbor of ours to the south probably is.

Also, author mentions that "Russia’s sale of the S300PMU2 definitely accounted for this risk, selling downgraded technology to Azerbaijan or stationing its own personnel with Azerbaijani’s on the system." Is this true or anyone know what he is talking about?

[Spetsnaz]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I have noticed 2 facts.
1) The border is so calm. Either some preparations for sabotage or aliyev started to think with his head.
2) Its been Long time we didn't hear about our purchases of new weapons. when was it last time? The official announcement of the 35 Tanks?

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Ադրբեջանցի դիվերսանտի սատկելու հանգամանքները

[Etchmiadzin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I have noticed 2 facts.
1) The border is so calm. Either some preparations for sabotage or aliyev started to think with his head.
2) Its been Long time we didn't hear about our purchases of new weapons. when was it last time? The official announcement of the 35 Tanks?

Aliyev kept the border quiet during april 24, he probably want the favor returned during his fancy games.

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Եթե չափն անցնեն, նույնիսկ պատն ադրբեջանցիներին չի փրկի:

[Mher]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Aliyev kept the border quiet during april 24, he probably want the favor returned during his fancy games.

The hell with him and his games, if there was ever time to return the favor to this animals for all they have done it would be during their pretend Olympics. As much of a disaster as those games and its buget have been, it would be even sweeter to add a few "incidents" to that failure of an event.

[argin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The hell with him and his games, if there was ever time to return the favor to this animals for all they have done it would be during their pretend Olympics. As much of a disaster as those games and its buget have been, it would be even sweeter to add a few "incidents" to that failure of an event.

It's not in our benefits to,personally when I went to Armenia at summer,during attacks people would demonize the Azeris and say that this happenes everyday and stuff to German,British and other tourists (all being true,we know that they are demons).imagine if we do some attacks and shootings the Azeri exaggeration machine will demonize us against the Europeans and pose as the victim and they will fall for it,we should only be in defensive guard which doesn't matter they will still twist the story in their favor like always

[argin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

For the purchase of aircraft,Armenia gets loans in 300-400 millions from Europe and China for industrial and infustracture projects,why not get a loan of another 400 million and with cost of let's say 10 million an aircraft (I don't know price range of jets)we can buy at least 40 of them with a discount and older versions we can get near 60/70 of them,we would modernize them later we good at modernizing,that's what we do best

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

For the purchase of aircraft,Armenia gets loans in 300-400 millions from Europe and China for industrial and infustracture projects,why not get a loan of another 400 million and with cost of let's say 10 million an aircraft (I don't know price range of jets)we can buy at least 40 of them with a discount and older versions we can get near 60/70 of them,we would modernize them later we good at modernizing,that's what we do best

We would never be able to use loan money to buy weapons, it's not politically-feasible. Those loans all have strings attached to them.