Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I wonder if he has official authority to announce what he is announcing or

say as a private citizen.

.

[Hakob]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I am an idiot when it comes to ground power......they all look badass to me from tanks to ground to air missile mobile launchers.

however trained pilots can out smart a scud, not sure about S300 but I am sure there is a way.

You mean shoot the scud down or evade it?
Scuds are not used to shoot down aircraft, as I remember.
But they can use electronic and heat countermeasures plus some good piloting to avoid SAMs.

[Hakob]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

H[QUOTE=londontsi;360489]

I wonder if he has official authority to announce what he is announcing or

say as a private citizen.

I think he is talking of what our government has shown willingness as maximum compromise. Of course that being under big pressure from Russia and the west. Thanks god Azeri government demands maximum without any compromises.
Now as warlick says, looks like Washington understands that without security guarantees there cannot be any compromise at all. I can't say that Russia has declared an understanding in this matter.
I hope Rissians won't try any arm twisting in order to put their army there.
In this, artsakh government (one of the smartest things we did is keeping Artsakh separate from Yerevan) will not budge and accept international peacekeepers (political joke).

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Yes to last sentence Hakob.

Sams can be avoided by aircraft. You can shoot them down, electronic jam or make it run out of fuel. You may not shoot directly at them but the chaffs and special missiles will make it trigger off thinking its the aircraft. Night is the best time to do this since you can see them clearly. Your chances are 60-40

S300....its a nightmare for pilots.
Here are some important points a pilot should know about the S-300.

Weaponised in the 1970s to replace the first generation SAMs, the S-300 is an easy to use, fire-and-forget road mobile system designed to repulse massive air strikes. With a range of 5-150 km, the system can track up to 12 targets and engage six of them separately. In terms of accuracy, the Russians claim a single shot kill probability of 80-93 percent against aircraft.
No existing aircraft can outrun the missile which travels at 7200 km/h and has a maximum altitude of 98,000 ft. Also, the latest versions of the S-300 can hit aircraft and missiles flying as low as 20 ft – from above.

This leaves the pilot not much choice if detected. The missile has a very narrow beam which makes it hard to detect and jam.

Contrary to media reports, the S-300 is not a standalone “game changer”. It becomes deadly when used alongside anti-aircraft artillery (AAA) and fighter aircraft. By dominating high altitude air space, SAMs drive enemy aircraft down into a “flak trap” where AAA batteries and air defence fighters await them.

so, it needs AAA and their Mig-29 to make it effective....there is a weakness here. You engage in their flak trap and take out the AAA. Lets see if they engage their Migs. That where our S300 will come in. Armenian jet makes the enemy follow into the trap. Chances 50-50. with an expert Armenian pilot chances will drop to 75-25 against baboons.

http://in.rbth.com/blogs/2013/07/19/s-300_natos_nightmare_and_perhaps_russias_too_27253.html

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Armenian Army
Special forces

[Mher]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

okay, so a lot of information from the past few days:

Artsakh Military information

Over the past week I first met with Seyran Ohanian, then I was in Artsakh where I got a chance to dine with conscripts at military base near Agdam, travel to the front lines immediately east of Agdam, and have quiet a few lengthy discussions with a lot of soldiers. Soldiers stationed at the base would serve 14 days on the front lines followed by 14 days back on the base, and the cycle continues for two years. I also met Bako Sahakyan, and also had quiet a few discussions with ordinary citizens, as well as random conscripts on the streets. A lot of this information is private, and I would be reluctant to share was it not for the fact that it was all very impressive, and paints our armed forces in a very positive light, and counters all of the Azeri nonsense bs we hear:

The soldiers who I spoke to (and I spoke to as many as possible in the few hours there, so it wasn't some fake or show sample) seemed very high in moral, satisfied, and genuinely proud of what they were doing. There was a real sense of shared responsibility, of duty, and brotherhood. There was a lot of confidence in themselves, their brothers, and their ability in any future conflict. There was absolutely zero concern about a future war or the fact that they might have to participate. The general attitude was: It's part of life here, and when it happens, we'll deal with it, and move on. Of course needless to say, like I had seen on my previous visit here, the soldiers were well fed and well supplied, and there was a high level of moral.

The conscripts I met on the street randomly were more negative on the their economic employment potential after military service, but they had no complaints about their experiences in the army. The biggest complaint I heard was from someone who said his fellow soldiers weren't as fearless as they should have been.
The following is questions from a discussion I had with a two year veteren of the front lines who had seen just about everything, who was being discharged in a few days. He had been here for all of the tense month of August last year, he knew an incredible amount, and when we got to the fronts, he was basically treated like a commanding officer by the other conscripts. He was very open, and said the good and the bad, and I got much more out of him than talking to Ohanian or Sahakyan.

The attacking has gotten much more worse/extreme in the past 18 months hasn't it?
It's not the nightly diversify attacks that are the most extreme difference. It's the the frequency with which they now use bullets that qualify as artillery, rather than ordinary bullets.

What is your opinion of the helicopter shooting down last year?
I don't blame them for their action. Let me tell you, If I'm standing in the front line and I see an unidentified aircraft flying above me, that close, my first instinct and action is to shoot it down. That would be what was expected of me. Still chances are if that were us, we wouldn't fire at the chopper, because peace means continuous victory for us, but their actions weren't shockingly out of the ordinary.

So do you blame the leadership/commanders for directing the helicopter to fly that close?
That is not for me to say, that's not my place to make a judgement.

How was it last August? How intense/difficult was the situation? What was in your mind at the time?
I was here for all of August. I didn't leave after 14 days as was the norm because we were fully ready for full scale war. We had been told to be ready for any command, and we knew war might start at any moment. In our sector of the front lines we actually didn't lose a single soldier all August, and we managed to kill 14 of them. I know about 10 soldiers were lost in the surrounding posts, but here in ours we held out without any losses all month.

What is your opinion on the chances of another war breaking out in the next few year/in our generation?
I doubt it because they simply don't have the means to achieve anything. They simply aren't strong enough to get much done in a war, and if the balance in the budgets stays the way it does, meaning both sides continue to buy weapons at the rate they are, I don't see that situation ever changing. If war does break out, we'll be ready to deal with it and it'll be done before you know it.
If they thought they had any chance at all of winning a war, they would have attacked a long long time ago. Seeing how they just talk, and never come close to starting another war, and how spending ratios haven't changed, it seems to me it is all just talk. If the rates of weapon procurement don't change, there will be no war.

What is your assessment of your equipment and supplies. You guys don't have night vision goggles all along the front lines do you?
Yes we do, all along the fronts we have night vision goggles with a range of 1km, that you can check out when we get to the front line.

What is your assessment of the level of moral/confidence on the front lines?
Confidence/moral is as should be. Everyone understands why we are here, that it's a duty, that its our families we are defending. We trust in our discipline, in our commanders, in each other, and we do our job.
What is something I need to mention here is the difference we see between us and the other side. At nights your hear much more noise, much more laughter, much more confidence, much more joking around from our side, than theirs. Their side is silent. In our side you don't get the sense that you're forced to be here like its a prison term, everyone here takes pride in what we're doing here, and accepts being here together. On the other side, I get a sense that they know what they are doing is meaningless, that they're not protecting their family. That's why I don't fear any war ever breaking out, or the consequences of that war, because its obvious they aren't very eager for any battle.

It seems to me, predicting what would happen in the plains of Agdam is much harder. Especially if the enemy begins moving forward. That it would be more secure to keep weapons/expensive assets behind the mountains around Askeran? Because irregardless of momentum, they would have a hard time advancing once they hit the mountains
That is the exact situation. Most assets are kept behind the mountains. They have the range to cover the distance anyway, and there is no point in sacrificing them for these abandoned plains. They can serve their function equally as well in a location in which damaging them is going to be much harder for the enemy.

The following is questions I asked at the lunch we had with the soldiers, and later from soldiers in the front line. All of them had been there ranging from one month to one year

What is the ratio of soldiers here from Armenia proper to soldiers from Artsakh?
60/40. About 60 percent are from Armenia proper.

What is the ratio of soldiers who get sent to the front lines (Artsakh, Nakhichevan, Tavush) versus those who end up in a safe situation within the middle of the country?
About 80-90 percent of those serving get sent to the front lines.

What is the situation in the southern Armenia border, which to me seems like the most vulnerable place because of the lack of the massive natural protection by the mountains that exists in the rest of Artsakh?
The situation there is actually the most quiet. Not much happens there, if something were to happen anywhere, chances are it starts here. (Border next to Agdam)

What is your opinion of the chances of another war breaking in the next few years? (the following are the answers I got from the group of 4-5 soldiers I was talking to)
Answer 1: They don't have the strength to start another war, if they did they would have started it already
Answer 2: Let it start, what are they really going to do? We know what our strength is, we know what are moral is, we know the faith we have in each other. They know they can't do anything, that's why there won't be another war
Answer 3: There eventually has to be a war, in a five or ten years, or this year. So let them start now, and they'll get exactly what they deserve. If it starts, it starts and we deal with it.


Questions for Seyran Ohanian
My questions:
1) I'm not sure if you are aware of it, but Israel has a military program specially for volunteer Diasporans, in which there are currently 3500 soldiers serving from 70 countries around the world. Has Armenia considered starting a similar program for the Armenian Diaspora.

We are aware of the Israeli model yoxxxxu mention, and have actually been studying the program for a while now. We will continue to study the program, its potential benefits and costs, until we can make a fully informed decision on it sometime in the future.

2)Azerbaijan continuously attacks Tavush. Given that Armenia is a member of CSTO, Russia has a signed agreement, a duty, to protect the lands in Armenia proper. Why is it that Russia never warns Azerbaijan to prevent future attacks on Tavush. Why is it that Russia treats attacks on Tavush in the same manner as attacks on Artskah?

Russia does warn Azerbaijan. Not only Russia but also the OSCE, and other powers. Unfortunately they warn them in a meaningless way, warning both sides, in vague terms assigning equal blame. We wish all of them, specially Russia, would stop the self delusion and open condemn the aggressor, the party responsible for any breakout in fighting.
But you know, if we were to sit around and run to CSTO or Russia for every problem, we wouldn't have an army.
We are more than equipped to deal with Azerbaijan by ourselves, and don't need the aid, attention or warning from anyone else to more than shut down any ill advised move by them.
For us CSTO membership is more for dealing with Turkey, and securing our Western border, so we are able to fully focus on Azerbaijan.

Notable Questions by others

On women being conscripted into the army

Currently there are women in our military in fields like medical, information, education. Also we have in recent years began accepting women in our military academy and we have now for example women snipers. However, we still do not find the idea of women in all areas of the army necessary or comfortable. Our armed forces has more than what it needs right now in number of soldiers and ability to defend the homeland. We would prefer our woman to be able to continue their lives as civilians and help in forming families and growing our population to give birth to future soldiers.

Suicide rate and discipline in army

Discipline in our military has been improving every single year. While of course we always have room for improvement and we still have areas of improvement, but you must know our military suicide rates are below those of Russia, USA, IDF, Turkey, Azerbaijan

Russia selling weapons to Azerbaijan

Russia is a sovereign nation and can at the end of the day do as it wishes. Also its economy, and private companies, are heavily dependent on weaspons sales. But most importantly, Azerbaijan can get the weapons it gets from Russia easily from other sources. At least like this we keep some sort of leverage on the source.

Domestic Arms Production in Armenia

As a small country, unlike larger countries, our domestic consumption is not enough to warrant domestic production. Therefore unlike them, if we were going to produce arms, we have to make sure that there is foreign export markets before making the vast investment. With that said, we currently have government agencies that have existed for years researching the topic and studying potential markets, and we are ready to start production when the right market exists.

NATO and Russia balance and relationship

we maintain equal balance between both party structures as we maintain cooperation with all parties. Both sides understand and recognize our need to balance because of difficult geopolitical situation and our size. They both understand and accept our need to maintain cordial relations with all large powers. Because of this we are able to serve as a bridge between both sides, specially militarily

Opinion of opening of Turkish border in terms of security/military

Of course every nation should seek to have normal and positive relations with all neighbors, and when the opportunity is there for that, you take it. But only if its beneficial and your security is not threatened by such an action. I would be against such a move, if security could not be guaranteed, which is the case right now. With many Turkish people suddenly allowed to move into Armenia, whether legally or illegally, to me that is a situation that can be manipulated and used as a leverage very quickly against a nation that actively supports our enemy.


Bako Sahakyan

He really didn't answer much in a meaningful way. Plus since he's president, most of the stuff he could tell is publicly available information like economics and investment unlike defense information. The only meaningful question asked of him was about the airport and when it'll open, but he didn't give a proper answer.

Overall I would say my impression of Artsakh on this trip was positive. The people are much more resolute and positive about the future despite the fact that their conditions are just as bad. There is a real sense of responsibility to the place they belong. Also the soldiers, and ordinary citizens really don't consider the prospect of another war daunting. They have a general attitude that its eventually gonna have to happen, and when it happens they'll deal with it, and that their armed forces are more than properly equipment to handle the challenge and keep their safe.

[Spetsnaz]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Good job Mher

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Armenian Army

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Thanks for sharing Mher. Loved the answers from the conscripts, very heartening. Even Ohanian's answers are good, respectful realistic answers.

[ArmeniaSacra]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Thanks Mher...