Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Spetsnaz]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Ավտովթարի հետևանքով զոհվել է 3 զինծառայող
Սեպտեմբեր 7, 2015

Սեպտեմբերի 5-ին Գեղարքունիքի մարզի Ծովակ գյուղի բենզալցակայանի մոտ ավտովթար է եղել, որի հետևանքով վարորդ՝ 1985 թ. ծնված Ս. Գ.-ն, ուղևորներ` 1987 թ. ծնված Հ. Մ.-ն, 1977 թ. ծնված Գ. Ս.-ն և 1977 թ. ծնված Գ. Վ.-ն ստացել են մարմնական վնասվածքներ և հոսպիտալացավել Վարդենիսի զինվորական կայազորային հոսպիտալ: Այս մասին սեպտեմբերի 5-ին հայտնել է ՀՀ տարածքային կառավարման և արտակարգ իրավիճակների նախարարության մամուլի ծառայությունը։

Նշվում է, որ ավտոմեքենան դուրս է եկել ավտոճանապարհի երթևեկելի հատվածից և բախվել ծառին:

Հաղորդագրության մեջ նշվում է նաև, որ հոսպիտալացման ճանապարհին մահացել է 1986 թ. ծնված Տ. Ս.-ն, իսկ սեպտեմբերի 6-ին՝ հոսպիտալ տեղափոխված 1977 թ. ծնված Գ. Ս.-ն և 1977 թ. ծնված Գ. Վ.-ն։

ՀՀ պաշտպանության նախարարության տեղեկատվական վարչությունից Ռազմինֆոյի հետ զրույցում նշեցին, որ մահացածները զինվորականներ են։

http://razm.info/71206

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Camp for refugees created on the outskirts of Yerevan (PHOTO)
13:33, 05.09.2015
Region:Armenia
Theme: Politics, Society


YEREVAN. – A notional camp for refugees has been installed on the territory of Armenia's Nubarashen military range within the framework of tactical military drills "Shant 2015".

According to the scenario of the exercises, the camp is supposed for refugees from other country who have come to Armenia because of the threat to life and health in their country.

The Armenian legislation envisages providing temporal shelter to the refugees who crossed the border because of threat to their life in their country, migrations service representative Petros Aghababyan told reporters.

The camp has its own group of investigators, filtration point, tents for recreation, dining, medical center.

UNHCR Officer-in-Charge in Armenia, Ms. Kate Pochapsky commended Armenian government's initiative to include deployment of refugees as an element of military exercises. She stressed that further cooperation with the government will continue.











Armenia News - NEWS.am

http://news.am/eng/news/284778.html

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Ավտովթարի հետևանքով զոհվել է 3 զինծառայող
Սեպտեմբեր 7, 2015

Սեպտեմբերի 5-ին Գեղարքունիքի մարզի Ծովակ գյուղի բենզալցակայանի մոտ ավտովթար է եղել, որի հետևանքով վարորդ՝ 1985 թ. ծնված Ս. Գ.-ն, ուղևորներ` 1987 թ. ծնված Հ. Մ.-ն, 1977 թ. ծնված Գ. Ս.-ն և 1977 թ. ծնված Գ. Վ.-ն ստացել են մարմնական վնասվածքներ և հոսպիտալացավել Վարդենիսի զինվորական կայազորային հոսպիտալ: Այս մասին սեպտեմբերի 5-ին հայտնել է ՀՀ տարածքային կառավարման և արտակարգ իրավիճակների նախարարության մամուլի ծառայությունը։

Նշվում է, որ ավտոմեքենան դուրս է եկել ավտոճանապարհի երթևեկելի հատվածից և բախվել ծառին:

Հաղորդագրության մեջ նշվում է նաև, որ հոսպիտալացման ճանապարհին մահացել է 1986 թ. ծնված Տ. Ս.-ն, իսկ սեպտեմբերի 6-ին՝ հոսպիտալ տեղափոխված 1977 թ. ծնված Գ. Ս.-ն և 1977 թ. ծնված Գ. Վ.-ն։

ՀՀ պաշտպանության նախարարության տեղեկատվական վարչությունից Ռազմինֆոյի հետ զրույցում նշեցին, որ մահացածները զինվորականներ են։

http://razm.info/71206

Horrible and easily avoidable if only unsafe driving standards change in this country. The death by vehicle accident rate is way too high.

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Very interesting read about a topic that is not covered often, spying between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Spy Wars in the South Caucasus
by Zane Egitkhanoff

Journal Article | September 3, 2015 - 3:18pm


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Spy Wars in the South Caucasus

Zane Egitkhanoff

As former republics of the USSR - home of the KGB - it should come as no surprise that Armenia and Azerbaijan both have dedicated national intelligence services, respectively called the National Security Service (NSS) and the Ministry of National Security (MNS). Since these two countries are essentially in a state of war over the contested territory of Nagorno Karabakh (NK), both intelligence services are assuredly tasked with stealing each other’s secrets (collecting intelligence) and preventing the other from doing the same (counterintelligence). To this end, the NSS and the MNS periodically announce the arrest of citizens accused of conspiring with the enemy. These press reports are typically fairly brief and do not disclose the techniques used to detect the alleged espionage. Nevertheless, they do occasionally contain nuggets of information, which provide a window into the inner workings of the NSS and MNS. The objective of this article will be to comparatively assess each country’s intelligence and counterintelligence capabilities, objectives, and operations based on publically available information.

Like all countries, Armenia and Azerbaijan do not publically disclose how much they spend on espionage. However, it’s reasonable to assume that the relative size of the countries’ intelligence budget correlates with their publically revealed national budgets. Therefore, given the fact that Azerbaijan’s 2015 state budget is ~$25 Billion USD[i] and Armenia’s is ~$3 Billion USD[ii], we can estimate that Baku’s intelligence budget is approximately 8.3 times larger than Yerevan’s. Although money is not a perfect measure of capability, it plays a significant role in human intelligence (HUMINT) due to the fact that assets/sources frequently require monetary compensation. For example, after he was arrested for spying in 2013, NK soldier Rafael Avagian claimed his Azerbaijani handler paid him $1,000 (presumably USD) in exchange for detailed military information.[iii] The per capita income in NK is difficult to determine, but Armenia’s 2013 figure was ~$7.7k[iv]. Thus the amount paid to Avagian constituted ~13% of the average Armenian’s annual income. In contrast, Azerbaijan’s per capita income in 2013 was $17.1k. If 1,000 dollars was enough to seduce Avagian, one can assume Armenia’s NSS would have to pay $2.2k [à1,000*(17.1/7.7)] to tempt a typical Azerbaijani soldier to provide similar information. Consequently, not only is the NSS’ budget likely only ~12% [à3/25] as large as the MNS’, but it probably has to pay 2.2 times much per human asset to acquire the same information. In other words, if the MNS can hypothetically afford 1,000 Armenian agents, the NSS could only afford 55 operatives [à(1,000*0.12)/2.2]. Given this economic reality, we can assume the NSS is likely far more choosey when it comes to asset recruitment than the MNS.[v]

With regards to Baku-controlled agents, one of the most intriguing cases to emerge in recent years was the arrest of Armenian soldier, Mane Movsisian; NK soldier, Rafael Avagian (referenced above); and Avagian’s friend, Davit Barseghian.[vi] The three operatives were reportedly recruited online by an Azerbaijani intelligence (presumably MNS) officer, who used a number of personas on social networking sites such as Facebook.[vii],[viii] The accused claimed their handler initially masqueraded as a Diasporan Armenian in Turkey who said he was seeking military and infrastructure related information for NK in order to appropriately prioritize/direct a forthcoming charitable gift. If this story has any element of truth, it can be inferred that some MNS officers carry out false-flag asset recruitment using their near-native Armenian-language speaking abilities.

One year after Movsisian et al. were arrested, Armenian media reported that the NSS carried out a concerted disinformation campaign against the MNS, which allegedly continued to try and recruit Armenian and NK military personnel using the exact same online personas.[ix] Upon initial observation, this public revelation appears to be part of an Armenian information campaign that was intended to embarrass the MNS, because using the same cover clearly reflects shoddy intelligence tradecraft. However, the disclosure of the disinformation campaign also likely compelled Baku to recall/ignore whatever intelligence it received from its social media sources between mid-2013 and mid-2014. While this may initially seem like a setback from Baku’s perspective, in reality, it would likely benefit the MNS since its eyes were effectively opened to a previously unknown issue, giving Azerbaijan the opportunity to rectify a problem it may not even know existed. Given the inherent benefit of keeping the NSS disinformation campaign secret, one may naturally ask why Armenian media outlets were allowed to publicize it in the first place.

There are a number of plausible explanations that may account for this seemingly irrational decision. First, the revelation could simply stem from an unintended leak, reflecting poor Armenian operational security (OPSEC) or bureaucratic ineptitude. It is also possible the MNS learned of the disinformation campaign prior to its public revelation. If the NSS was able to detect the MNS’ awareness, the former may have opted to disclose the program, reasoning that the benefit of humiliating Baku superseded the risk of publically revealing a program that the MNS had already discovered. Another distinct possibility is that, upon further investigation, the NSS realized the MNS online personas continued to recruit sources and collect bona fide intelligence even after Movsisian and the two other soldiers were arrested in mid-2013. By trumpeting the disinformation operation, the NSS may have intended to discredit (at least in the eyes of the MNS) intelligence that was actually both legitimate and damaging. In other words, it may have been an Armenian attempt to trick Azerbaijan into figuratively dumping the baby out with the bathwater. Whatever the reason, the revelation likely reflects a sophisticated intelligence-counterintelligence dynamic between the two warring sides.

Media reports also shed light on how the intelligence services are able to access enemy territory and contact HUMINT assets. For example, former Armenian police Colonel Khachik Martirosian was arrested for espionage in early 2014.[x] The NSS claimed Martirosian had been co-opted by (likely official cover) MNS officers, who were operating out of Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tbilisi. The MNS’ decision to run HUMINT operations out of Georgia makes perfect sense given that country’s shared borders and good relations with both Azerbaijan and Armenia; and it’s only natural to assume the NSS leverages Armenia’s Tbilisi embassy for the same purpose, even if there is no evidence indicating as much. In addition to using Georgia as an access conduit, Baku also appears to conduct intelligence operations via Iran. In this vein, the 2009 arrest and 2010 trial of Behnam Bagheri revealed the MNS tactic of using ethnic-Azeri, Iranian nationals to gain entry into Armenia.[xi] This demographic group likely appeals to the MNS for several reasons. Not only are ethnic-Azeri Iranians more inclined to sympathize with Baku’s position regarding NK, but they also compose ~20% of Iran’s population. Due to their large numbers, Yerevan cannot bar them from crossing into Armenia, since it would undoubtedly prove economically damaging and would harm Armenian-Iranian ties (which Yerevan is keen to foster). In contrast, Armenian Iranians compose <1% of Iran’s population, which means Baku is likely able to enforce a de facto travel ban against them (just as they do against other third-country national, ethnic Armenians).[xii] In other words, the NSS probably cannot route intelligence operations through Iran as easily or effectively as the MNS.

Behnam Bagheri’s trial is also revealing because it was claimed that he tried to smuggle sensitive footage across the Armenian-Iranian border.[xiii],[xiv] The fact that a likely MNS asset had to go through such lengths to transfer his collected data to his handlers weakly suggests (i.e. by no means confirms) that the MNS lacked a clandestine operating base/station/safe house in Armenia as of 2009. It may also indicate the MNS lacked the technical infrastructure, know-how, or training to electronically send and retrieve sensitive material (e.g. encrypted email), thereby necessitating risky real-world smuggling operations.

A final issue worth discussing is the fact that there are far more reported cases of Azeri assets being arrested in Armenia than vice versa. Moreover, there also appears to be a significant qualitative difference in terms of those arrested in each respective country. Most alleged MNS assets, for instance, appear to have had plausible access to sensitive Armenian security information as a result of their positions as soldiers and police officials. In contrast, Baku only appears to have arrested journalists (Rauf Mirkadirov) and human rights defenders (e.g. Leyla Yunus), individuals who probably just ran afoul of the Aliyev regime and likely did not have access to actual intelligence.[xv] It is possible this disparity could simply reflect the relative size of each country’s HUMINT program, as discussed earlier. That is to say, more MNS assets were arrested than NSS assets simply because there are more of the former. It’s also possible that NSS counterintelligence capabilities are more sophisticated than the MNS’, hence the larger number of arrests. Another potential theory is that the NSS and MNS have different policies in terms of publically revealing espionage cases. Yerevan may intentionally publicize spy-related arrests as a means of deterring other Armenian officials who might otherwise be tempted to betray their country. In contrast, the MNS could believe that public disclosure will only serve to highlight Armenia’s competency and reveal Azerbaijani weakness. In other words, it is possible Baku arrests far more legitimate Armenian spies than it is willing to publically disclose.

While this article sought to provide an overview of Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s HUMINT operations, it is important to acknowledge that there are many different types of intelligence, including signals intelligence (SIGINT) and imagery intelligence (IMINT). Meaning, one country’s HUMINT advantage may not necessarily extend to SIGINT, IMINT or any other type of intelligence. Furthermore, the NSS’ and MNS’ respective ability to integrate their collected intelligence into defense/war plans and operations also remains a key information gap…one which is unlikely to be covered in regional media reporting.

http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/spy-wars-in-the-south-caucasus

[Spetsnaz]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

Yerevan on Snapchat! !!! Perhaps we should work on NK to be on Snapchat!

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

CSTO positively assesses Armenia Shant 2015 drills
12:46, 05.09.2015
Region:Armenia
Theme: Politics


YEREVAN. – Representatives of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) positively appraise the course of the Shant (Lightning) 2015 strategic command and staff military exercises being held throughout Armenia, from Thursday to Sunday.

CSTO Secretariat representative, Reserve Forces Major General Valery Kolchin, told Armenian News-NEWS.am that they have monitored several of these drills.

“Everything was organized without breaking the rhythm of life,” he noted. “Everything was in compliance with the rules of the situation needed for bringing the country to readiness.”

Kolchin added that his positive respective impressions are being reinforced.
Armenia News - NEWS.am

http://news.am/eng/news/284785.html

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

19:05 05/09/2015 » Politics
Yerevan Office of UNHCR commends ‘Shant-2015’ drills plan



A mock refugee tent camp for refugees from various countries has been set up in Yerevan today as part of ‘Shant-2015’ command and staff exercises held in Armenia on September 3-6.

A peacekeeping brigade member, Major Edgar Khalatyan told reporters that under the scenario, the aim is to inspect actions of ministries in response to migrants’ complaints about unsatisfactory housing conditions.

During the drills a scenario of crowd management was played out. Armenian government members were present at the event.
An action plan regarding specific actions of all authorized state bodies has been developed, said Petros Aghababyan, the head of the unit for sheltering refugees of Armenian Ministry of Territorial Administration and Emergency Situations (MTAES).

The head of the legal section of the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Office in Yerevan Ms. Kate Pochapsky said they welcome the fact that such as important issue as a large inflow of migrants has been included in the agenda of ‘Shant-2015’ drills in Armenia. She considered it important that the plan calls for participation of a large number of departments, structures, and representations of international organizations to deal with that problem.

To remind, during a briefing held on September 2 by Armenian Defense Ministry’s Defense Policy Department, Yerevan-based military attaches of foreign states and representatives of international organizations were provided with information about ‘Shant-2015’ military command and staff exercises due in Armenia on September 3-6. Officials of Armenian Defense Ministry said that Shant-2015 are planned military exercises of all-republican significance and aim to check the mobilization readiness of state and military command bodies in the process of the state’s immediate preparations for defense and repulsion of an aggression, the ability to bring forces into a higher level of readiness, and to raise the level of interaction and coordination of actions. Those present were told that given the military-political situation around Armenia and in adjacent territories, the enemy and the situation in the drills’ fictional scenario were maximally brought into line with reality.

On the evening of September 3, Armenian President, Chairman of Armenia’s National Security Council Serzh Sargsyan convened a mock emergency sitting of the National Security Council to provide information about the situation developing around Armenia in recent days according to the scenario of the exercises, the presidential press service reported. Reports stemming from the imaginary situation were made at the sitting, and proposals were put forward. The responsible officials of state agencies received instructions relevant to the scenario. The president underlined the importance of the drills in terms of taking prompt and efficient actions in particular situations.

Source: Panorama.am

http://www.panorama.am/en/society/2015/09/05/shant-un/?sw

[argin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

I'm guessing this figure does not include the weaponery of NKR since it's not part of the republic other wise we would have been ahead of Azerbaijan,considering the majority of our weapons and arsenal are stored and stationed in the war zone and away from European mediators and UN inspectors to prevent any violation of international treaties


Global Firepower: Azerbaijani Army strongest in South Caucasus
[ 07 September 2015 17:24 ]
Baku. Agha Jafarli – APA. The Azerbaijani Army is the strongest in the South Caucasus, says the 2015 World Military Strength Rankings of Global Firepower.

According to the Global Firepower, Azerbaijan ranks 63rd, followed by Armenia (73) and Georgia (74).

The United States tops the ranking, followed by Russia, China, India and the United Kingdom.

The Israeli Army, which has been among the most powerful up to now, has fallen behind Turkey, Japan, Germany, the Republic of Korea and France to become the eleventh.

[argin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

Can this bs be in any close touch with reality?sounds more like an azeri newspaper

Lragir: Putin may return Karabakh to Azerbaijan
Mon 07 September 2015 10:31 GMT | 3:31 Local Time
"Russia is ready to make concessions in relations with Azerbaijan."
Russian and Western press keeps posting materials that Russia is trying to implement a "secret plan" on Karabakh bypassing Minsk Group.

It is noted that Putin discussed his plan with Aliyev during his visit to Baku at the opening of the European Games, and a few days ago, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Baku to discuss the details of the project. As a rule, foreign ministers discuss specific issues.

According to Oxu.Az, chief editor of Armenian news portal Lragir.am Haikazn Gagriyan writes about it in his article "Secret plan" of Russia on Karabakh.

According to Gagriyan, Lavrov's visit to Baku was accompanied by an unprecedented worsening in border areas of Armenia, which suggests that this kind of message of Armenia, which is a "strategic partner" of Russia.

"If Moscow wanted, Azerbaijan would not fire on Armenia, its obvious. Now there is a struggle for Azerbaijan, which is trying to pursue an independent policy. It is all clear about Georgia and Armenia, only Azerbaijan is left. Russia is trying to involve Azerbaijan in the EAEC, that would solve the issue of "general boundaries" with Armenia. Armenia is a pain point of Russia, it is quite unpredictable, despite the obedience of its political leadership and political forces. One reason for this difficulty is the lack of common borders and the apparent contradiction of interests," the author writes.

According to the journalist, Russia is ready to make concessions to implement the plan, of course, at the expense of the Armenians:

"Azerbaijan, in contrast to Armenia, in fact, is a Eurasian country, and receives economic and political preferences from Russia. But Russia is now in such a condition that Baku can demand more.

Struggle for Azerbaijan escalates on the background of the US and NATO activities in the region. In particular, the United States reached almost dominant in the negotiations on the Karabakh settlement, as NATO has already established itself in Georgia. Under these conditions, Russia is ready to make concessions in relations with Azerbaijan because it has no other levers of influence.

Its not accident that according to reports in media, Moscow is ready to hand over Karabakh territories to Azerbaijan. It is noted that during the meeting with Serzh Sargsyan in Moscow on September 7, Putin may make such a proposal."

The author writes that Azerbaijan started a large-scale exercises on the eve of Serzh Sargsyan's visit to Moscow:

"Many say that the behavior of Baku in recent days aimed at putting pressure on Armenia in order to provide Russian-Azeri deal".

[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

Can this bs be in any close touch with reality?sounds more like an azeri newspaper

Lragir: Putin may return Karabakh to Azerbaijan
Mon 07 September 2015 10:31 GMT | 3:31 Local Time
"Russia is ready to make concessions in relations with Azerbaijan."
Russian and Western press keeps posting materials that Russia is trying to implement a "secret plan" on Karabakh bypassing Minsk Group.

It is noted that Putin discussed his plan with Aliyev during his visit to Baku at the opening of the European Games, and a few days ago, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Baku to discuss the details of the project. As a rule, foreign ministers discuss specific issues.

According to Oxu.Az, chief editor of Armenian news portal Lragir.am Haikazn Gagriyan writes about it in his article "Secret plan" of Russia on Karabakh.

According to Gagriyan, Lavrov's visit to Baku was accompanied by an unprecedented worsening in border areas of Armenia, which suggests that this kind of message of Armenia, which is a "strategic partner" of Russia.

"If Moscow wanted, Azerbaijan would not fire on Armenia, its obvious. Now there is a struggle for Azerbaijan, which is trying to pursue an independent policy. It is all clear about Georgia and Armenia, only Azerbaijan is left. Russia is trying to involve Azerbaijan in the EAEC, that would solve the issue of "general boundaries" with Armenia. Armenia is a pain point of Russia, it is quite unpredictable, despite the obedience of its political leadership and political forces. One reason for this difficulty is the lack of common borders and the apparent contradiction of interests," the author writes.

According to the journalist, Russia is ready to make concessions to implement the plan, of course, at the expense of the Armenians:

"Azerbaijan, in contrast to Armenia, in fact, is a Eurasian country, and receives economic and political preferences from Russia. But Russia is now in such a condition that Baku can demand more.

Struggle for Azerbaijan escalates on the background of the US and NATO activities in the region. In particular, the United States reached almost dominant in the negotiations on the Karabakh settlement, as NATO has already established itself in Georgia. Under these conditions, Russia is ready to make concessions in relations with Azerbaijan because it has no other levers of influence.

Its not accident that according to reports in media, Moscow is ready to hand over Karabakh territories to Azerbaijan. It is noted that during the meeting with Serzh Sargsyan in Moscow on September 7, Putin may make such a proposal."

The author writes that Azerbaijan started a large-scale exercises on the eve of Serzh Sargsyan's visit to Moscow:

"Many say that the behavior of Baku in recent days aimed at putting pressure on Armenia in order to provide Russian-Azeri deal".

You didn't know that Lragir is an Azeri newspaper?