Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Նախագահ Սերժ Սարգսյանն աշխատանքային այցով եղել է հյուսիսարեւելյան սահմանագոտում:

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Artsakh]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

another one by "strafor"
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Joint Armenian-Russian Air Defense System To Put Brakes On Azerbaijan's Claims To Nagorno Karabakh: STRATFOR
•From: Mihran Keheyian <[email protected]>
•Date: Fri, 20 Nov 2015 12:07:41 +0000 (UTC)

JOINT ARMENIAN-RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM TO PUT BRAKES ON AZERBAIJAN'S CLAIMS TO NAGORNO KARABAKH: STRATFOR

15:23, 20 Nov 2015
Siranush Ghazanchyan

Photo: Handout/RIA Novosti/Getty Images

A joint missile Russian-Armenian air defense system will put the
brakes on Azerbaijan's goal of retaking Nagorno-Karabakh and seven
adjacent territories, Stratfor said as it analyzed the motives behind
the Russian-Armenian air defense deal. Excerpts from the analysis
are provided below.

On Nov. 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed his government
to sign an agreement with Armenia to create a joint missile air
defense system in the region. Not long after, the Armenian government
confirmed that Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev is expected
to visit Armenia in late November to officially sign the air defense
system deal.

The move, though reminiscent of Moscow's actions in Central Asia and
Belarus in previous years, comes at a time when Russia is being forced
to respond to a wider array of challenges than ever before. Threats are
rising from the Near East, while the West is ramping up its military
activities in Georgia and Nagorno-Karabakh moves closer to changing
its political status.

And as Russia increases its military presence in Armenia, its
competition with major regional powers for influence in the South
Caucasus will intensify, adding to the growing list of issues Russia
must contend with outside its borders.

An expanding military presence will put Russia in direct competition
with Turkey's ambitions in the South Caucasus and Georgia's cooperation
with NATO and U.S. forces. It will also put the brakes on Azerbaijan's
goal of retaking Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent territories.

For Armenia's part, the joint air defense deal comes at an opportune
time. Its government has received mounting criticism from Armenian
politicians and media amid a growing belief that the country's
membership in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization
and its reliance on Russia as a security guarantor have yielded few
results, particularly as Azerbaijan pursues a more assertive military
posture around Nagorno-Karabakh.

Under the new agreement, Armenian air defenses will be strengthened,
and the country will likely see new air defense equipment, radios,
radar systems and combat helicopters deployed to its territory.

Armenian Minister of Territorial Administration and Emergency
Situations Armen Yeritsyan also recently announced that the Stepanavan
Airport, located a mere 20 kilometers (about 12 miles) from the
Armenia-Georgia border, will host Russian Mi-24 and KA-32 heavy
helicopters starting in 2016. While these aircraft do not amount
to a projection of Russian force because of their limited range,
they do reflect the Kremlin's broader policy of boosting its air
capabilities in Armenia -- a process that dates back to January 2014,
when Russia announced that it would strengthen Armenia's Erebuni
Airport with Mi-24P, Mi-8MT and Mi-8SMV helicopters. Along a similar
vein, Nagorno-Karabakh's president has said Russian forces may use
his region's Stepanakert Airport for air operations, an offer that
may be in response to the recent uptick in air cooperation between
Armenia and Russia.

Russia's growing military presence in the South Caucasus will be
especially worrisome to Turkey and Azerbaijan, Armenia's longtime
rivals in the region. The two countries have ramped up their joint
military exercises with Georgia over the past year, posing a heightened
threat to Armenia, whose strategic position is already weak. Since
Turkey already had less ability than Russia to project power into the
South Caucasus, the Kremlin's recent moves will only increase the
gap between Russian and Turkish influence there, thus intensifying
their competition for sway in the wider region.

Meanwhile, Russia's stronger aerial presence in Armenia could alter
the military balance of power between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijani politicians have already voiced concerns about the
air defense agreement, and on Nov. 11 -- the same day Putin gave
his orders to sign the deal -- Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev
visited his country's S-300 anti-aircraft missile brigade, the unit
responsible for Azerbaijan's aerial defenses.

The timing of the deal is significant for a number of reasons. First,
it signals Russia's response to recent developments in the ongoing
standoff between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. As
talks progress on Armenia handing over to Azerbaijan several regions
adjacent to the breakaway territory, Russia will boost its military
presence in the South Caucasus to ensure the security of Armenia
and Nagorno-Karabakh and to make any further territorial concessions
more politically palatable to Yerevan. Second, as Russia becomes more
involved in the Syrian conflict, Moscow is keen to increase its ability
to monitor its southern borders -- a goal that a military presence
in Armenia, with its proximity to the Middle East, is ideally suited
to achieve.

https://www.stratfor.com/sample/analysis/motives-behind-russian-armenian-air-defense-deal-0

http://www.armradio.am/en/2015/11/20/joint-armenian-russian-air-defense-system-to-put-brakes-on-azerbaijans-claims-to-nagorno-karabakh-stratfor/

[Artsakh]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

A joint missile Russian-Armenian air defense system will put the
brakes on Azerbaijan's goal of retaking Nagorno-Karabakh and seven
adjacent territories, Stratfor said as it analyzed the motives behind
the Russian-Armenian air defense deal. Excerpts from the analysis
are provided below.

As talks progress on Armenia handing over to Azerbaijan several regions
adjacent to the breakaway territory, Russia will boost its military
presence in the South Caucasus to ensure the security of Armenia
and Nagorno-Karabakh and to make any further territorial concessions
more politically palatable to Yerevan.

Strafor needs better writers, even if they aren't knowledgeable on the topic they're writing on. They are constantly contradicting themselves...

[Artsakh]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

That's interesting. Why does it say "Sargsyan" and "Armenia" on the president's uniform in the English language? Is that some sort of a political message?

[HyeSocialist]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

What does everyone on here think about the recent stratfor articles? They seem to be really excited or at least pushing for Armenia to return some territories. I don't think any moves should be made without guaranteeing Artsakh is an independent state recognized by both Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, the EU, and the US.

[Azad]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

another one by "strafor"
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Joint Armenian-Russian Air Defense System To Put Brakes On Azerbaijan's Claims To Nagorno Karabakh: STRATFOR

In other words, azerbaijan you are screwed for now.

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

[Mher]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

What does everyone on here think about the recent stratfor articles? They seem to be really excited or at least pushing for Armenia to return some territories. I don't think any moves should be made without guaranteeing Artsakh is an independent state recognized by both Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, the EU, and the US.

there won't be any territory given away in the near future. I'm not saying this as a diasporan expressing his own opinion, I'm saying this as a person whose spent a lot of time in Artsakh and knows the people's mentality. One needs to understand that there is a separate functioning government (in fact a much better/fairer functioning one) in Artsakh, and a group of people that does view themselves as somewhat different, and doesn't even fully trust the Armenian government, let alone just follow their orders.

The mistrust is because that territory was won while Ter-Petrosyan was trying to persuade the Karabakh forces to back down and stop advancing. For two years, those forces moved forward and captured that territory while the central government in Armenia was trying to get them to stop, and couldn't do anything about it. The majority of the casualties of the war 4,000 out 6,000 came from the tiny population Karabakh that 1/20th of Armenia's. And they did this when they were much weaker. What do you think will happen now that its a stable functioning place, and oh ya small detail: a Karabakhtsi is in charge of Armenia?

Even if by some impossible set of circumstances the Karabakhtsi led government of Armenia decides to agree to giving away territories, the people of Karabakh who make up some 40-50% of the troops on the fronts, and a lot of the military leadership, will just refuse, a conflict will start, and Armenia will be forces to support their fellow Armenians. That's why the central government of Armenia will never agree to anything like that. But even beyond that, people in Armenia proper will never agree to this. Even if it makes political/economic sense, the person who does this will be killed both figuratively and very possibly literally. We have the words davajan thrown around in our political debate when trying to pass traffic ticket laws, what do you think will happen if someone was giving away territory to turks.

I can see Agdam being given away in some final peace solution, because the only thing Agdam offers is separation distance, nothing else, since the valuable defensive mountains end before you get to Agdam. But Azerbaijan will never settle just for that. Plus Armenians have pretty much bulldozed the city down to rubble, and in reality it has zero value for Azerbaijan. But the rest of the territories, it's not a matter of pride, or principal, it's just basic logic that they can't ever be given ever without significantly threatening the viability of the existence of Karabakh, and Armenia as a whole. Hadrut can't be given away because then Azerbaijan will just have to go through Kapan to cut off Armenia's tie to Iran. Same goes for the part of Shahumian we do control adjacent to Vayots Dzor/Syunik. Keljabar for much of the same reason, as well as the fact that much of the source of water for Sevan, i.e the most important source of freshwater for Armenia, comes from the area.