Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

http://www.aysor.am/en/news/2010/08/20/ankara-baku-russia/

Ankara, Baku take revenge for Russian base in Armenia

Turkey may deploy a military base in the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic, Azerbaijan, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported citing Azerbaijani media.

According to some information, the military base deployment was discussed during Turkish President Abdullah Gul’s visit to Baku.

“If this scenario is implemented, it can be considered Baku’s and Ankara’s response for the new agreement between Moscow and Yerevan on extension of term of Russian military base in the territory of Armenia and provision on Armenia’s security,” Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

http://www.aysor.am/en/news/2010/08/...a-baku-russia/

Ankara, Baku take revenge for Russian base in Armenia

Turkey may deploy a military base in the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic, Azerbaijan, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported citing Azerbaijani media.

According to some information, the military base deployment was discussed during Turkish President Abdullah Gul’s visit to Baku.

“If this scenario is implemented, it can be considered Baku’s and Ankara’s response for the new agreement between Moscow and Yerevan on extension of term of Russian military base in the territory of Armenia and provision on Armenia’s security,” Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported.

This will serve two purposes:
1. Turkey wants to get involved with a future Azerbijan-Armenia war.

2. Put Armenia under its thumb whenever it wants.

Either of those will be disasterous.

[KarotheGreat]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

http://www.aysor.am/en/news/2010/08/...a-baku-russia/

Ankara, Baku take revenge for Russian base in Armenia

Turkey may deploy a military base in the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic, Azerbaijan, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported citing Azerbaijani media.

According to some information, the military base deployment was discussed during Turkish President Abdullah Gul’s visit to Baku.

“If this scenario is implemented, it can be considered Baku’s and Ankara’s response for the new agreement between Moscow and Yerevan on extension of term of Russian military base in the territory of Armenia and provision on Armenia’s security,” Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported.

I think this will be the move that will bring war back to the region. We all know what Russia thinks of countries trying to gain influence in the Caucasus. Look what happened in Georgia(the US). If we follow this little logic and I'm sure Turkey thinks of this as well, so what will the consequences be for Turkey. Let's say the war restarts and Turkey attacks Armenia. The first soldiers that will die will be Russians(last time Russian soldiers died, Russia invaded a country.)

If Turkey is stupid enough to open a base in the Caucasus, Turkey and Russia will be enemies. Russia will not tolerate an different power in it's backyard. So as I see Turkey doesn't have the balls or the power to start a fight with Russia.(The last couple of wars between those two Turkey always lost.) And NATO will not risk WWIII for Turkey. So Russia will not allow this to happen but if this happens very bad things will happen in the region.

This will serve two purposes:
1. Turkey wants to get involved with a future Azerbijan-Armenia war.

2. Put Armenia under its thumb whenever it wants.

Either of those will be disasterous.

1. Russia is the one guarding the border, so the first soldiers that will die will be Russians and I don't see Turkey being that stupid.

2.Armenia is in the Russian camp, for Turkey to get it under it' thumb it needs to get it away from Russia and I don't see this happen.

But what will happen is if the base is opened: weapon race in th region and a war will follow very soon.

[gegev]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

http://www.aysor.am/en/news/2010/08/...a-baku-russia/
Ankara, Baku take revenge for Russian base in Armenia
Turkey may deploy a military base in the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic, Azerbaijan, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported citing Azerbaijani media.
..... ” Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported.

Nakhidjevan territory is under joint Russia-Turkey patronage and Turkey has no right to establish military base there w/o Russia's agreement. If Turkey is going to establish a military base there, I guess, Russia allowed that.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I think this will be the move that will bring war back to the region. We all know what Russia thinks of countries trying to gain influence in the Caucasus. Look what happened in Georgia(the US). If we follow this little logic and I'm sure Turkey thinks of this as well, so what will the consequences be for Turkey. Let's say the war restarts and Turkey attacks Armenia. The first soldiers that will die will be Russians(last time Russian soldiers died, Russia invaded a country.)

If Turkey is stupid enough to open a base in the Caucasus, Turkey and Russia will be enemies. Russia will not tolerate an different power in it's backyard. So as I see Turkey doesn't have the balls or the power to start a fight with Russia.(The last couple of wars between those two Turkey always lost.) And NATO will not risk WWIII for Turkey. So Russia will not allow this to happen but if this happens very bad things will happen in the region.

1. Russia is the one guarding the border, so the first soldiers that will die will be Russians and I don't see Turkey being that stupid.

2.Armenia is in the Russian camp, for Turkey to get it under it' thumb it needs to get it away from Russia and I don't see this happen.

But what will happen is if the base is opened: weapon race in th region and a war will follow very soon.

I agree. Eventually, War is inevitable if they make this move.

But maybe this is Armenia's chance to get Nakhchevan back without sounding like it's invading it, aka self-defense. Which Armenia should have done long ago anyway. Strategically and Militarily , Armenia needs Nakhchivan to secure it's border once and for all.
I don't see Nakhchivan surviving without Azeris for long though, already many are imigrating to Turkey and Azerbaboonjan, because of economic hardship and isolation. Production has dropped sharply and large-scale commercial agriculture has declined. 75% of the state budget is provided by the Azerbaboon. Tourism is miniscule too.

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Nakhidjevan territory is under joint Russia-Turkey patronage and Turkey has no right to establish military base there w/o Russia's agreement. If Turkey is going to establish a military base there, I guess, Russia allowed that.

You are right. The Azeri/Turkish threat of opening a Turkish base in Azerbaijan works to Armenia's advantage and you brought up a good point regarding Nakhidjevan. It alienates Russia from Azerbaijan and Turkey, not only the security sphere but the economic one as well; Azerbaijan loses leverage. Azerbaijan Solidifies Armenia's strategic position in the eyes of Russia. Makes NATO grow wary of possible Turkish adventures---though NATO might be more cohesive than the CSTO, NATO does not want to take any unnecessary. Russia will up the ante for Armenia's defense. Nor should we forget Iran. Iran would not be pleased about a possible Turkish base in the region. There are a myriad of ways Russia and Iran can hurt Azerbaijan. The Azeris know this and this is why they have been relatively magnanimous

[ArmeniaR1]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I agree. Eventually, War is inevitable if they make this move.

But maybe this is Armenia's chance to get Nakhchevan back without sounding like it's invading it, aka self-defense. Which Armenia should have done long ago anyway. Strategically and Militarily , Armenia needs Nakhchivan to secure it's border once and for all.
I don't see Nakhchivan surviving without Azeris for long though, already many are imigrating to Turkey and Azerbaboonjan, because of economic hardship and isolation. Production has dropped sharply and large-scale commercial agriculture has declined. 75% of the state budget is provided by the Azerbaboon. Tourism is miniscule too.

I once heard that there are between 20 and 30 thousend people left in nakichevan, most of them are emigrated to turkey. But acording to azeris there are 300 thousend people there. lol

[ninetoyadome]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Will Turkey put a base in Azerbaijan in response to Russia-Armenia agreement?
August 20, 2010 - 12:46pm, by Joshua Kucera

Joshua Kucera

That's what the Russian newspaper Nezavismaya Gaezta says, citing Azeri news reports alleging Azeri dissatisfaction with their relations with Russia (summary via RT):

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan and Turkey may have prepared their “symmetrical answer to Yerevan and Moscow,” Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily said. A Turkish military base may be deployed in Azerbaijan as a result of the talks between Baku and Ankara, the paper noted.

“The topic was allegedly discussed during the recent visit of Turkey's President Abdullah Gul to Baku and his meeting with Azerbaijan’s leader Ilkham Aliev," the daily said. According to Azerbaijan’s media, the military base may be deployed in Nakhichevan autonomous republic, an exclave between Armenia and Turkey.

The relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan are so close that the question arises why Ankara has not yet deployed its military base in the friendly country, the paper asked. Baku may have expected Russia’s more effective role in settling the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, the daily explained.

Hoping that Russia could “influence its strategic ally – Yerevan – and help to promote the restoration of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity,” Baku "did not venture on strengthening a pro-Turkey vector or another one,” the daily stressed.

However, the authorities in Baku think that “expectations were overestimated” as the situation over Nagorno-Karabakh remains unchanged, the daily said.

“Baku, in fact, has determined the limitation of its expectations after which it will probably try to change the situation in its favor by other actions,” the daily said. “This limit is President Medvedev’s visit to Baku scheduled for September.”

One thing notably missing from this analysis is Russia's alleged pending sale of S-300 air defense systems to Azerbaijan (which Russia continues to not deny), and which obviously should change Baku's perception of whether or not Russia is selling it out.

And as I've discussed before, all of this speculation about a Turkish military base in Azerbaijan seems to be coming solely from Azerbaijan, and not at all from Turkey. And it's hard to imagine what Turkey would gain from having a base in Nakhchivan.

Still, as EurasiaNet has reported, Turkey has increased its ties to Nakhchivan, and has at least spoken vaguely of military cooperation:

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan went still further, noting that “Nakhchivan is exposed to various threats from the Armenian state.”(what threats?)

“Therefore, military cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan and the NAR [Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic] is one of the major components of our relations,” Erdogan said.

Azerbaijan maintains a base in Nakhchivan that has received heavy Turkish support in the past, but no official information is available about the current scope of military cooperation between the two countries in the exclave.

And things are changing pretty quickly, at least in geopolitical time, in the relations between Turkey and Armenia, Turkey and Russia and Turkey and Azerbaijan. So we shouldn't be too surprised by further big moves to come.

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/61778

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Also about turkey opens a base in Nakichevan. Russia will be guarding that border and according to the new protocol Russia will aid Armenia if they are attacked. An article i read said Armenia can concentrate on Artsakh without having to worry about turkey attacking them because Russia will stop any attack on Armenia.
There goes the azeris attack plan. They probably thought they would attack Artsakh and once Armenia sent troops to help the Artsakh army turkey would attack from the other side. Now Russia will prevent this from happening so we can just defeat the azeris without having to worry about turkey.

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/world/news/52270

Sergei Lavrov: Russia will never supply arms if destabilization threat emerges

PanARMENIAN.Net - Russia will never supply arms if destabilization threat emerges, Russian Foreign Minister said.

“Purchase of S-300 by a country causes panic about possible destabilization. As a matter of fact, S-300 is a defense system which is deployed in compliance with international norms,” Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with Public Armenian Television, when commenting on reports on possible sale of S-300 to Azerbaijan.

“S-300 is meant to defend the territory from missile attacks. I am confident that no country in the region we are speaking about is planning to unleash war. I was personally present at the meeting between Presidents of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, who signed documents excluding use of force for resolution of the Karabakh conflict,” he said.

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This is the closest I have heard to saying " we will supply S - 300s to Azerbaijan"

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I once heard that there are between 20 and 30 thousend people left in nakichevan, most of them are emigrated to turkey. But acording to azeris there are 300 thousend people there. lol

20 -30 thousand people would suggest no economic activity and the place is deserted.

I think a good way to guess the population there is to use Google Earth and observe for car traffic in the capital Nakhichevan.

I am sure an expert would read far more telltale signs of activity.