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Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan
KEEP PACE WITH PACE.
Mirror Spectator Jan 2016
By Edmond Y. Azadian
As we enter the New Year, Armenia faces yet another new diplomatic
challenge, again the result of its size and the alliances it has
chosen. Although on the surface they don't appear to be the case,
indeed those two, as well as the deep and generous pockets of its foes,
are the root causes of those challenges.
Last year, Armenia suffered a setback in Europe when the European
Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg issued a decision in the case of
Dogu Perincek, which in essence sided with the Genocide denier in a
case that pitted him against the Swiss government. Switzerland has
adopted a law which makes the denial of the Armenian Genocide a crime.
Perincek, a Turkish citizen, in lectures denied the Genocide
repeatedly.
While in its final verdict the court said that there is no doubt
whatsoever regarding the fate that befell the Armenians, all legal
terminologies and maneuvers were rehashed in the verdict to state
one more time that any one in Europe can deny the Armenian Genocide
and seek shelter under the banner of freedom of speech, while denying
the Jewish Holocaust is instead treated as inciting hate.
That decision would certainly have its impact on Swiss law and produce
dire consequences elsewhere. A case in point is a recent French High
Court verdict. A math teacher had been fired and convicted in Paris for
challenging the Holocaust denial law, arguing that the law unfairly
punishes only those disputing or denying the Jewish Holocaust, but
no other crimes against humanity. The constitutional court upheld
the law on January 10, singling out Holocaust denial as a crime,
saying that the World War II genocide is of a "different nature" than
other crimes against humanity. This ruling is taking place in a country
whose president, Francois Hollande, had pledged his support to ironclad
language in a law criminalizing the denial of the Armenian Genocide.
Pundits who had tried to minimize -- and even misinterpret -- the
European Court's verdict in the Perincek case, will realize that it
has begun to have a negative domino effect in Europe.
Now comes the second chapter of diplomatic challenges for Armenia.
Indeed, the Committee on Political Affairs and Democracy of the
Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) has approved
with a vote of 24 to 16 an anti-Armenian report entitled "Escalation
of Violence in Nagorno-Karabagh and Other Occupied Territories of
Azerbaijan" by Robert Walter (United Kingdom, EC), a rapporteur of
PACE Political Affairs Committee. The Armenian delegation's proposal
to replace the biased rapporteur was declined. The above report will
feature on the agenda of the PACE plenary session on January 26 with
yet another biased report against Karabagh Armenians.
The second draft resolution is entitled "Inhabitants of Frontier
Regions of Azerbaijan Are Deliberately Deprived of Water." The
rapporteur of this second report is Milica Markov (Bosnia and
Herzegovina).
The first report is founded on biased premises as it qualifies
Karabagh as an "occupied territory," in addition to other Azeri
territories Armenia occupies. A neutral position which is expected
from an organization such as PACE, at the very least should have
formulated it as "disputed territories." In its current shape the
draft resolution has its forgone conclusion, which may not even need
any voting at the plenary session.
In the first draft resolution, the principles of neutrality,
impartiality and objectivity have been thrown out. On the other hand,
the credentials of the rapporteur himself are comprised; Mr. Robert
Walter and his wife, Feride Alp-Walter, have been involved in business
dealings in Azerbaijan and Turkey. It has also been reported that they
both are Turkish citizens and that Mr. Walter received his Turkish
ID card personally from Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. In
2011, Mr. Cavusoglu was among the guests at the couple's wedding.
This transparent vote-for-money situation may remind readers possibly
of another diplomat -- now discredited and out of the political stage
-- who at the time negatively impacted Armenian-Azeri relations,
namely Matthew Bryza. Bryza, the former co-chair of the Minsk Group
of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE),
served also for a short time as US ambassador to Azerbaijan. The
wedding of Bryza and his Turkish bride in Turkey was reportedly
underwritten by the Aliyev government in Azerbaijan.
These blatant undertakings seem to be individual acts of misbehavior
but they are being tolerated by the diplomatic circles because
Armenia remains in the Russian orbit and the delegates who vote for
these misguided and ill-conceived resolutions believe in the backs
of their minds that they are punishing Russia indirectly by voting
against Armenia.
The second draft resolution is similarly based on fallacious premises
because the rapporteur has chosen to ignore the technical report on
the Sarsang Reservoir, which is at the center of the controversy. The
technical report drafted by expert Dr. Lydia S. Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia
calls for a visual inspection of the dam, which is far from the
alleged danger of collapse, but the rapporteur has chosen to ignore
the invitation of Karabagh authorities to come for a fact-finding
mission and she has demanded a unilateral and "immediate withdrawal
of Armenian armed forces from the region concerned."
In view of PACE's ill-advised initiatives, the OSCE has issued a terse
statement suggesting that no other body is mandated to interfere in
the Nagorno Karabagh conflict without consulting the OSCE co-chairs.
Any marginal interference can only damage the negotiation process. But
Azerbaijan, under Turkey's tutelage, has been actively pursuing
a policy of deviating and corrupting the fundamental meaning of
the Karabagh issue. The Azeri-Turkish tandem has already used the
fanaticism of some Islamic countries to win their votes at the UN
General Assembly formulating the conflict as a religious quarrel.
Armenians should not be surprised by similar actions and they need
to plan their strategies and prepare for counter attacks, which
fortunately are on their way. The European Armenian Federation
for Justice and Democracy (EAFJD) has already taken the lead to
launch a campaign, namely through a petition on change.org, urging
active participation to prevent PACE from adopting a pro-Azerbaijani
resolution that can hinder the Nagorno-Karabagh peace negotiations.
The EAFJD is specifically calling for immediate action via the petition
to put an end to PACE's "hate-filled war rhetoric on Nagorno Karabagh
and the favoritism of some of its members toward Azerbaijan."
The diaspora initiative is coupled and endorsed with a diplomatic
offensive from Armenia. To prevent the adoption of the above documents,
Yerevan has undertaken a furtive diplomatic campaign.
Deputy Speaker of Parliament Eduard Sharmazanov has visited all Baltic
capitals with a follow-up trip to the Czech Republic and Greece.
Meanwhile, Hovhannes Sahakyan, the head of Armenia's Standing
Parliamentary Committee on State and Legal Affairs has paid similar
visits to Warsaw and Bucharest, while Artak Zakaryan, head of
Armenia's Standing Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Relations and
Samvel Fermanyan, co-chair of Armenia-Europe Cooperation Commission
are on their way to different European capitals with the same mission.
"This resolution has no value at all, apart from undermining the
negotiation process,' announced Naira Zurabyan, who heads the
Prosperous Armenia faction in the National Assembly. "As for the
final version," she added, "it depends on how many sober-minded
members will be attending the PACE plenary session to understand
that the adoption of a resolution with such wording will simply
increase the border tensions, which is already very tense. PACE
will yet another time turn into a scene of war between Armenia and
Azerbaijani delegations. If that is what PACE is seeking, let them
keep on working in such a manner."
In the meantime, Deputy Foreign Minister Shavarsh Kocharian has
announced at a parliament session that Armenian should work more
actively with the delegates of PACE.
The January 26 session and the vote will demonstrate if the combined
mobilization of the Armenia-diaspora diplomatic campaign was able to
catch up or keep pace with PACE.
KEEP PACE WITH PACE.
Mirror Spectator Jan 2016
By Edmond Y. Azadian
As we enter the New Year, Armenia faces yet another new diplomatic
challenge, again the result of its size and the alliances it has
chosen. Although on the surface they don't appear to be the case,
indeed those two, as well as the deep and generous pockets of its foes,
are the root causes of those challenges.
Last year, Armenia suffered a setback in Europe when the European
Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg issued a decision in the case of
Dogu Perincek, which in essence sided with the Genocide denier in a
case that pitted him against the Swiss government. Switzerland has
adopted a law which makes the denial of the Armenian Genocide a crime.
Perincek, a Turkish citizen, in lectures denied the Genocide
repeatedly.
While in its final verdict the court said that there is no doubt
whatsoever regarding the fate that befell the Armenians, all legal
terminologies and maneuvers were rehashed in the verdict to state
one more time that any one in Europe can deny the Armenian Genocide
and seek shelter under the banner of freedom of speech, while denying
the Jewish Holocaust is instead treated as inciting hate.
That decision would certainly have its impact on Swiss law and produce
dire consequences elsewhere. A case in point is a recent French High
Court verdict. A math teacher had been fired and convicted in Paris for
challenging the Holocaust denial law, arguing that the law unfairly
punishes only those disputing or denying the Jewish Holocaust, but
no other crimes against humanity. The constitutional court upheld
the law on January 10, singling out Holocaust denial as a crime,
saying that the World War II genocide is of a "different nature" than
other crimes against humanity. This ruling is taking place in a country
whose president, Francois Hollande, had pledged his support to ironclad
language in a law criminalizing the denial of the Armenian Genocide.
Pundits who had tried to minimize -- and even misinterpret -- the
European Court's verdict in the Perincek case, will realize that it
has begun to have a negative domino effect in Europe.
Now comes the second chapter of diplomatic challenges for Armenia.
Indeed, the Committee on Political Affairs and Democracy of the
Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) has approved
with a vote of 24 to 16 an anti-Armenian report entitled "Escalation
of Violence in Nagorno-Karabagh and Other Occupied Territories of
Azerbaijan" by Robert Walter (United Kingdom, EC), a rapporteur of
PACE Political Affairs Committee. The Armenian delegation's proposal
to replace the biased rapporteur was declined. The above report will
feature on the agenda of the PACE plenary session on January 26 with
yet another biased report against Karabagh Armenians.
The second draft resolution is entitled "Inhabitants of Frontier
Regions of Azerbaijan Are Deliberately Deprived of Water." The
rapporteur of this second report is Milica Markov (Bosnia and
Herzegovina).
The first report is founded on biased premises as it qualifies
Karabagh as an "occupied territory," in addition to other Azeri
territories Armenia occupies. A neutral position which is expected
from an organization such as PACE, at the very least should have
formulated it as "disputed territories." In its current shape the
draft resolution has its forgone conclusion, which may not even need
any voting at the plenary session.
In the first draft resolution, the principles of neutrality,
impartiality and objectivity have been thrown out. On the other hand,
the credentials of the rapporteur himself are comprised; Mr. Robert
Walter and his wife, Feride Alp-Walter, have been involved in business
dealings in Azerbaijan and Turkey. It has also been reported that they
both are Turkish citizens and that Mr. Walter received his Turkish
ID card personally from Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. In
2011, Mr. Cavusoglu was among the guests at the couple's wedding.
This transparent vote-for-money situation may remind readers possibly
of another diplomat -- now discredited and out of the political stage
-- who at the time negatively impacted Armenian-Azeri relations,
namely Matthew Bryza. Bryza, the former co-chair of the Minsk Group
of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE),
served also for a short time as US ambassador to Azerbaijan. The
wedding of Bryza and his Turkish bride in Turkey was reportedly
underwritten by the Aliyev government in Azerbaijan.
These blatant undertakings seem to be individual acts of misbehavior
but they are being tolerated by the diplomatic circles because
Armenia remains in the Russian orbit and the delegates who vote for
these misguided and ill-conceived resolutions believe in the backs
of their minds that they are punishing Russia indirectly by voting
against Armenia.
The second draft resolution is similarly based on fallacious premises
because the rapporteur has chosen to ignore the technical report on
the Sarsang Reservoir, which is at the center of the controversy. The
technical report drafted by expert Dr. Lydia S. Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia
calls for a visual inspection of the dam, which is far from the
alleged danger of collapse, but the rapporteur has chosen to ignore
the invitation of Karabagh authorities to come for a fact-finding
mission and she has demanded a unilateral and "immediate withdrawal
of Armenian armed forces from the region concerned."
In view of PACE's ill-advised initiatives, the OSCE has issued a terse
statement suggesting that no other body is mandated to interfere in
the Nagorno Karabagh conflict without consulting the OSCE co-chairs.
Any marginal interference can only damage the negotiation process. But
Azerbaijan, under Turkey's tutelage, has been actively pursuing
a policy of deviating and corrupting the fundamental meaning of
the Karabagh issue. The Azeri-Turkish tandem has already used the
fanaticism of some Islamic countries to win their votes at the UN
General Assembly formulating the conflict as a religious quarrel.
Armenians should not be surprised by similar actions and they need
to plan their strategies and prepare for counter attacks, which
fortunately are on their way. The European Armenian Federation
for Justice and Democracy (EAFJD) has already taken the lead to
launch a campaign, namely through a petition on change.org, urging
active participation to prevent PACE from adopting a pro-Azerbaijani
resolution that can hinder the Nagorno-Karabagh peace negotiations.
The EAFJD is specifically calling for immediate action via the petition
to put an end to PACE's "hate-filled war rhetoric on Nagorno Karabagh
and the favoritism of some of its members toward Azerbaijan."
The diaspora initiative is coupled and endorsed with a diplomatic
offensive from Armenia. To prevent the adoption of the above documents,
Yerevan has undertaken a furtive diplomatic campaign.
Deputy Speaker of Parliament Eduard Sharmazanov has visited all Baltic
capitals with a follow-up trip to the Czech Republic and Greece.
Meanwhile, Hovhannes Sahakyan, the head of Armenia's Standing
Parliamentary Committee on State and Legal Affairs has paid similar
visits to Warsaw and Bucharest, while Artak Zakaryan, head of
Armenia's Standing Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Relations and
Samvel Fermanyan, co-chair of Armenia-Europe Cooperation Commission
are on their way to different European capitals with the same mission.
"This resolution has no value at all, apart from undermining the
negotiation process,' announced Naira Zurabyan, who heads the
Prosperous Armenia faction in the National Assembly. "As for the
final version," she added, "it depends on how many sober-minded
members will be attending the PACE plenary session to understand
that the adoption of a resolution with such wording will simply
increase the border tensions, which is already very tense. PACE
will yet another time turn into a scene of war between Armenia and
Azerbaijani delegations. If that is what PACE is seeking, let them
keep on working in such a manner."
In the meantime, Deputy Foreign Minister Shavarsh Kocharian has
announced at a parliament session that Armenian should work more
actively with the delegates of PACE.
The January 26 session and the vote will demonstrate if the combined
mobilization of the Armenia-diaspora diplomatic campaign was able to
catch up or keep pace with PACE.
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