Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[hrai]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I think what Hye is referring to is the current situation drifting towards a war of attrition.

War of attrition is not directed to a "bunch of pussies" ( whatever that means ) but to hardy men, stronger, better armed and equipped armies.
It is a "guerilla war" with clearly defined battle lines.
It is fought by a "bunch of pussies" with one difference, they are not afraid to die.

Perhaps they do plan attrition but at this rate baku will soon be empty but the villages where these poor numbskulls are being conscripted from will be empty first.
azerbaboons are afraid to die, they know the truth of these recent scandalous accidents in baboon army barracks, soldiers slipping on knives, under vehicles etc. they will see that their turns will come around soon.

It would be really interesting to see what/who killed the baboon officer, perhaps he was fragged by his fed-up troop.

they are ramping up recently, testing defence, resolve and awareness. Looking for weakness and prisoners but taking only martyrs back.

Although it is too early to define the current situation as a war of attrition, our military leaders will have to decide when enough is enough.

What happens should our military decide enough is enough? To escalate friction is what Big babooliev wants, aggressive invader Armenia. Let them bleed themselves dry.

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

hi there how are you all this post is directed to all in this forum specially Zoravar coz he is the most experianced in the military field.

Recently we have been seeing an intensification of diversion attacks from the behalf of the Azeris and all of the times except the one when we had 4 losses and them only one we emerged victoriouse thanks to Azerbaijan the moral of Armenians and specially Armenian soldier deffending the frontline is boasted even more but I have a concern. in this recent events I can actually see Aliev has kept his promise which we all were dismissing. I can see that a new phase in Karabakh conflict just started. Although a full scale hostilities didn't break out but this phase isn't less dangerouse than a full scale war. In my opinon Aliev is convinced it is not probable to solve the karabakh conflict in his favor with a traditional full scale war because of so many reasons that many people here in this forum and analysts around the worl talked about so feeling inferior to the Armenian Army he started to implement a new kind of war which is as dangeriouse deady and ery efective. This kind of war we call it in arabic "harb estinzaf" literaly translated as "bleeding war" the less supiror forces avoid a full scale war but by doing acts and attacks they try to inflict as much damage as possible to the enemy making sure it doesn't pass the line ignite a full scale war. Gaurila warfare is also kind of this war that avoids full confrontation but bleeds the enemy into surrender. i can give a similar example in Lebanon Israel had occupied southern Lebanon and even reached Beirut from 1982 and when the civil war stoped in Lebanon in 1990 Israel was still in control of southern lebanese province so for 10 years Hezb Alla ingaged a gaurila warfare to bleed the Israelies they satrted to organise diversion sudden attacks plus booby traps etc. to kill or wound as much Israeli soldiers they can in the end forcing Israel to withdraw WITHOUT ANY CONDITION from the south Hezb Alla always avoided direct confrontation or a full scale war because they knew they would lose in that case and in the end they emerged victoriouse.

I can see a quite similar case over here azeris have realized they can't win in a full scale war so their choice is diversionary attacks to kill as much armenian soldier as they can and using propaganda and false infromation blame the Armenian side which will make the international comunity and internation and european organisations and superpower to remain silent about the incedent (just like it happened in the past times). And by killing Armenian soldiers kill the moral of the Armenian Army in the mean time boast the moral of the their Army and gain hand in the negotiation process. This kind of war is durty, dangerouse, exhausting specially for the country or the party which has disadvantage in population.

Till now THANK GOD Azeris haven't reached their goal accept for a one time because they have been suffering the losses but tables would turn if they start to secceed. This is a real treat to Armenian security and I think should be descussed in highest levels because as far as I'm concerned I can't find a solution and adequate reply to this kind of warfare. unless we keep on making them fail in their mission

Azerbaijan has more to loose than to gain from a prolongued war of attrition. The few occasional clashes in Artsakh cannot be discribed as such a war.


The reason Aliyev is sending some of his overzealous/brainwashed soldiers to do these diversionary attacks in order to kill or capture some Armenian soldiers is: PROPAGANDA.

Aliyev cannot wage a full scale war because:

1) His army may not be strong enough to beat us.
2) The Russians have made it clear to them that a new war in Artsakh is forbidden.

But he still needs to stay in power. And for that purpose he has to feed his masses with propaganda, such as "the Azeri flag will fly over NK again", "our defense budget is increasing", "new clashes in NK, we killed x number of Armenians" etc etc.

I am not a politics or history expert, but I know that a weak dictator is a finished dictator. Aliyev has to show his people that he is strong. His war-drumming and saber-rattling rethoric is all about that.

I expect the Azeris to instigate further occasional clashes on the frontline. Theses clashes will not escalate because the perpetrators are not interested in a war of attrition or a full scale war... so far (for so many years), they never did...

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

My thoughts:

The latest Azeri attacks seem to occur whenever the Azeris feel they have suffered some diplomatic or political loss. For example in July this occurred after the failed talk in Moscow between Sargisyan and King Aliyev. The latest occurred very soon after the latest Russian-Armenian Military Agreements. This is a way for Aliyev to vent his anger. It seems when Aliyev gets angry he orders these attacks to try an intimidate Armenians. He also want the world to know he means business or something and even remind the world about the conflict they would rather soon forget or ignore. He has lost and he knows it. All the Azeris have is bluster.

If I am wrong and Aliyev did not order these attacks, it shows that the Azeri army is not acting in unison and effective command. In none of these attacks have the Azeris gained ground, tactical advantage, captured prisoners or weapons (though this may have been their intention with the last attack seeing as Armenian forces found several handcuffs at the scene of the fighting) and whats more, this could be a unit trying to get revenge for the Azeri "hero" whose body rots in an Armenian morgue.

If their intention is to probe enemy defenses, they have done a piss poor job. Recon units are not supposed to engage they enemy/provoke attack unless necessary, they are supposed to gather intel and bring in live prisoners for interrogation, or call in artillery strikes. If they wanted to test Armenian resolve, they have received their answer. Armenian forces did not retreat when these strikes occurred but instead reinforced and countered. In all cases, the Azeri retreated leaving their dead and some weaponry behind. The Azeris got the opposite of what they had brazenly hoped. Leaving behind your dead comrades will instead hurt Azeri morale. How many more of these attacks until Azeri troops "no more" to these suicide missions and turn on their commanders (in fact, this happened on several occasions during the war-the Armenians suspended operations when the Azeri fought amongst themselves during mutinies).

If the Azeri strategy is to fight a guerilla style/low intensity fight along the front lines and be willing to sacrifice their men, so be it. This plays into both Armenia and Artsakh's hands. It much easier, cheaper, and deadly to be on defense, especially when you are prepared

Whether or not this a valid strategy, the Azeris haven't proved adept at using it.

Too bad for Aliyev he is a fool when it comes to military tactics. The first attack in July caught Armenian forces off-guard but since then have probably increased vigilance, bolstered defenses etc. Instead of intimidation, they have increased resolve amongst Armenians. For some of the Armenian troops, this is their first taste of action and they have shown they can defend well; it will increase morale.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I think what Hye is referring to is the current situation drifting towards a war of attrition.

War of attrition is not directed to a "bunch of pussies" ( whatever that means ) but to hardy men, stronger, better armed and equipped armies.
It is a "guerilla war" with clearly defined battle lines.
It is fought by a "bunch of pussies" with one difference, they are not afraid to die.
Their aim being to erode and crack the morale of the stronger side.
In military terms it is a valid strategy.

Although it is too early to define the current situation as a war of attrition, our military leaders will have to decide when enough is enough.
Also our political leadership will have to decide, we will not walk down that path.
Only alternative remaining will be to have another war.
If not a war or at least a major battle to show the opposite side their actions will not be fruitful.

In other words peace OR war but nothing in between.

A fine example of what i meant with "bunch of pussies" is the Georgian army. Run away at the first sign of danger. These men were not prepared to die to save thier so called 'native land' of ossetia. All they accomplished was carpet bomb a city with innocent women/elderly/children.
Are the Azeri soldiers prepared to die in thousands till the last spill of blood for NKR? I doubt it. Are the armenians of NKR prepared to die for NKR? you betcha they do. So if they want to start a guerilla war, they'd have to kill all the NKR army and it could take years.

So according to your argument the Israeli Army one of the strogest in the world and far strongest in the region and far better trained in the region are as you put it "bunch of pussies". As you can see according to my analysis they are waging war but different kind of a war. As londontsi said we should wait and see but my analysis in my opinon is valid and a treat to Armenian security.

If Israel someday decides enough is enough, they can destroy both gaza/lebanon (wipe them off the map) in max 2 months, if they really wanted. They have enough stockpile to last a decade. The only reason gaza and lebanon exist today is because of Israel's restraint. the 2006 lebanon war was a clear message to hizbullah, "don't xxxx with us, don't steal our soldiers, or we'll come after you."

[ninetoyadome]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

How did the azeri soldier get into the trench? What didnt the Armenian troops see him coming or they let him get close so they could take him out easier?

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I just read newly available details of Saturday's incident where two Azeri soldiers were killed on a French website and i'll translate for everyone.

The incident happened near Jraberd. There were 8 Azeris in total with 2 of them being killed and many injured. One of the soldiers jumped into the trench held by Armenian soldiers and actually went into hand to hand combat withan Armenian soldier by the name of Arman Manukyan. Arman threw him to the ground and another Armenian soldier reinforced him and shot the Azeri dead. The dead Azeri soldier had knives on him as well as a number of guns including one Israeli made weapon with a silencer attached to it as well as a number of grenades. The other soldier was killed by tripping a mine during his escape. Ever since the Chaylu incident where four soldiers were killed, the Artsakh army has been more vigilent.

NKR defence forces have done an outstanding job but I must ask, how the hell can that Azeri soldier (through the landmines?) make it all the way into the Armenian trench without being spotted.

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

This kind of war we call it in arabic "harb estinzaf" literaly translated as "bleeding war" the less supiror forces avoid a full scale war but by doing acts and attacks they try to inflict as much damage as possible to the enemy making sure it doesn't pass the line ignite a full scale war. Gaurila warfare is also kind of this war that avoids full confrontation but bleeds the enemy into surrender. i can give a similar example in Lebanon Israel had occupied southern Lebanon and even reached Beirut from 1982 and when the civil war stoped in Lebanon in 1990 Israel was still in control of southern lebanese province so for 10 years Hezb Alla ingaged a gaurila warfare to bleed the Israelies they satrted to organise diversion sudden attacks plus booby traps etc. to kill or wound as much Israeli soldiers they can in the end forcing Israel to withdraw WITHOUT ANY CONDITION from the south Hezb Alla always avoided direct confrontation or a full scale war because they knew they would lose in that case and in the end they emerged victoriouse.

There are a few major differences between the war in Lebanon and the one in Artsakh that I think rule out the possibility to compare them.

In Lebanon, Israel was an occupying force ruling over a Lebanon full of Lebanese citizens opposed to occupation. This enabled Hizballah and other Lebanese to easily engage hit and run tactics and melt away in the local population. This is key in a guerrilla war. You will need a population base that supports you in order to use such tactics. Hizballah was not a uniformed army when it was trying liberate Lebanon and that is in order to stage their attacks more successfully by blending in and using the element of surprise more effectively than uniformed Azeris crossing the mined border into Artsakh. So long as they are on the other side and we are manning a trenched defensive position, these attacks will be futile. We rule over the land of our compatriots as opposed to the 1982 Israeli invasion. It was kinda the same situation in Vietnam and more recently in Iraq and Afghanistan though we saw how it turned out for Iraq when its resistance lost the backing of the population.

In Artsakh's case, we rule the land without having to deal with a local Azeri population so if Azeris want to wage a guerrilla war, they will actually have to face our army directly by crossing the border into an area (also a frontline) where no civilian exists (neither Armenian or Azeri). The soldiers on both sides are uniformed too and any attack will be directly met on the frontline. I believe what this is resembling more is trench warfare or attrition warfare where both sides are entrenched on a frontline and don't move a lot other than small scale attacks. But the problem with classifying it as such too is that this is not a full-scale war like it was in WWI where trench warfare was prominent. The attacks are too few for it to wear any of the sides down.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/russia/1998/fbten06111998001258.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qabala_Radar

I wonder what will become of this station after 2012. What's Russia have in mind, if anything? I hope they relocate it to Armenia...

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/li...1998001258.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qabala_Radar

I wonder what will become of this station after 2012. What's Russia have in mind, if anything?

Azerbaijan will ask for much more money for it and the lease will be renewed, probbably.

[Hye]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

hi Zoravar thanks for your reply I agree with you that Azerbaijan can't wage a full scale war agains NK for reasons you have mensioned and I'm not saying Aliyev wouldn't use these attacks for propaganda, moral boost and internal consumption. I'm concerned that this small attacks may become war of attrition when we start to lose more and more soldiers untill now they have failed big time eccept in one occasion when we lost 4 soldiers (a huge number for our small army) and they lost one and this concerns me because of the silence of the international comunity and the superpowers bearing in mind I can't see an adiquate way we can respond to them. I'm just trying to be far sighted till now we are doing great job and actually winning in this new kind of war but as I said this is a new stage and it is the beginning so far there has been 5 or so attacks and two in just a weeks we just have to wait and see if it will intensify. I'm just thinking in case it does become more often and we start to lose more soldiers God forbid it will be a huge problem for us milirarily and deplomaticly. Don't forget if it does intesify and we start to lose more soldiers Aliyev will reach what it had wanted to. he will have his propaganda, he will boost the morale of his troops and will strengthen his position internally. As for NK what should we do? Start a full scale war? we can't keep on losing soldiers? we can't intensify deplomatic missions to make them stop this act? I don't see this happening. The only way to avoid this is to keep alert and make them bleed and lose more soldiers then us.


Hi Joseph you have put very valid points out there specially your observation that these attacks are happeneing after some kind of diplomatic loss from the Azeri side this is one good explanation I'm just giving alternative for discussion. And their failure is a huge blow to their tactics anyway but again let's think about the future and let's at least wish we will be this successful and even more in the future.


arakeretsik (this one is for Federate too) in 2000 the whole world was surprised to see Israel withrawing from Lebanon on 2006 the who;e world was stunned to see even under given cercumstnces Israel not advancing even an inch into southern Lebanon after reaching Beirut so easily in 1982 we may give reasons and excuses and say a lot of would haves should haves and ifs but the bottom line is Israel withrew in 2000 because it couldn't affort to lose more soldiers occupying Lebanon. I'm not comparing and saying there are similarity between these two conflicts i'm just showing how effective a war of attrition may be even between forces that can't be compared together in military superiority. Moreover Federate I'm not saying Azeris are fighting gaurila warfare or will do such thing but by using these attacks they may start a war of attrition against us because of our limited man power and cause a lot of damage in case we start losing more and more soldiers this actually concerns me. And in case God forbid this happens what are our choices what can we do to stop this.