Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Etchmiadzin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Does the price of these drones really make it worth it taking out a tank or a bus full of soldiers? taking out anti air systems i get, maybe drive out a bunch of junk tanks barely usable as bait. Armenia should be able to make some kind of primitive version of a suicide drone without all the fancy auto targeting etc?

[Hakob]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Vrej, what is you opinion? What is everyone else's opinion? will it hold?

I would be very happy if the ceasefire held. Right now we found out we have nothing to fear going forward. We can hold them without a problem. Now they will only get weaker, and we will only get stronger. I rather develop our country, our fragile economy, and take care of these anasoons when they self-destruct, as they surely will, in a few years.

I don't think this will hold. Right now Aliev's power is shaking. they might go to the next phase to all out war. Or keep mini wars like this.
But true answer lies in our MOD plans. Are we willing or do we have means and wits to cause Azeris to keep ceasefire? Are we willing to do what we need or bow to moscows and Washingtons pressures.
Keep in mind, Moscow has military on out Turkish border and hence levers into influencing us.

[armnuke]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

RT's reporter is in Talish now:

https://twitter.com/MuradoRT/status/717714061065076736

RT's Murad Gazdiev from Karabakh: #KarabakhNow ceasefire is >very< shaky. Heard lots of small arms fire, explosion in #Talysh. Still, less than before

https://t.co/vqqJdqgKmv

[Artashes]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

I don't think this will hold. Right now Aliev's power is shaking. they might go to the next phase to all out war. Or keep mini wars like this.
But true answer lies in our MOD plans. Are we willing or do we have means and wits to cause Azeris to keep ceasefire? Are we willing to do what we need or bow to moscows and Washingtons pressures.
Keep in mind, Moscow has military on out Turkish border and hence levers into influencing us.

If Moscow brokered a cease fire and both us and east turc agreed, then if tatar breaks cease fire, then can't Russia call them out on this ? If the slim to our east says with a lying mouth to cease fire but continues firing, cannot Russia supply us with radar to detect drones and electro magnetic equipment to stop drones ?
Cannot Russia counter the east scums disengenuous lies by supplying us with S 350 intermediate missiles or even S 400s ?
We both agreed to cease fire. Are there no penalties for the conniving fraud ?
Those Israeli drones and missiles can be dealt with by Russ technology. Look at Russian no fly around their bases in Syria.

[armnuke]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

Armenia President: A pity that Russia and other CSTO countries sell weapons to Azerbaijan

Russia is our strategic ally, we are CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) member countries, and it is truly regrettable for us that not only Russia, but also other members of the same organization sell weapons to Azerbaijan.

The President of Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan, on Wednesday stated the aforesaid at his joint news conference, in Berlin, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

He added that Armenia has a limited capacity to have any bearing on this process.

“Azerbaijan has modern weapons, and the [recent] three-day military actions [in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone] showed that it uses them,” Sargsyan stressed. “But strength is not in the modernity of the weapons and in the [number of] tanks, but in the faith which the Karabakh—and in general, the Armenian—people have; the faith that the homeland must be defended.

“You see how our [Armenian] society manifested itself [during these hostilities]. In Azerbaijan, you will not find [any] information about casualties. The three-day tension showed that the best societies also know to fight well.”

[Mher]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan and Armenia Rethink Their Strategies

Analysis APRIL 6, 2016 | 09:15 GMT

After four days of heavy fighting that threatened to escalate into a larger conflict, Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to a cease-fire. While the deal could halt most of the violence, skirmishes along the forces' line of contact will continue, and the risk of more serious flare-ups will remain high.

The latest round of fighting was the heaviest in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh since 1994, but it was relatively contained to the front lines. Azerbaijan likely wanted to avoid drawing in Russia, which may have intervened in the event of a wider conflict. The battlefield's geography also contributed to limiting the scope of military operations. Armenia and Azerbaijan have invested heavily in modernizing their militaries over the past two decades; Azerbaijan in particular has used the profits from exporting its sizable energy resources to expand its defense budget. Yet despite Azerbaijan's significantly upgraded firepower, it had no way to quickly dislodge Armenia's prepared and tenacious defenses from the region's mountainous terrain.

Air support, for instance, can be a vital tool against prepared and fixed defenses or enemy supply and relief convoys. Though Azerbaijan was able to use its bigger air force to gain the upper hand in the disputed region's airspace, Armenia's extensive land-based air defenses severely limited Azerbaijan's air support capabilities. Consequently, Azerbaijan had to rely on low-flying helicopter gunships and unmanned aerial vehicles during the fighting. Azerbaijani forces had some success with these aircraft, but it came at a heavy cost: Video footage confirmed that many of Azerbaijan's drones were lost or shot down.

With the air power of both sides significantly restricted, artillery support became the central feature of the conflict. Whereas armored vehicles were stalled by rough terrain and anti-tank defenses, tube and rocket artillery played a crucial role in reducing enemy defenses, supporting defending troops and interdicting supply lines. Given the substantial impact of the artillery systems, it would not be surprising if both sides continued to invest heavily in them.

In the face of Armenia's determined defense in difficult terrain, Azerbaijan opted to focus its efforts on incrementally seizing territory. Even then, Azerbaijan was aware that its slow and methodical strategy, based heavily on its technological and demographic advantages, was not foolproof. And as the final days of fighting showed, those advantages were not enough to ensure outright triumph on the battlefield.

Though both parties have claimed resounding victories, the fog of war still hangs heavy in Nagorno-Karabakh. We can draw informed conclusions about the tactics used in the fighting, but a more complete appraisal of the conflict will have to wait for the two countries' widely diverging assessments of territory gained and casualties inflicted to be reconciled. Still, that will not stop Armenia and Azerbaijan from drawing military lessons from the past few days of fighting.

Their conclusions will be important because the cease-fire will not endure. Expect violations to take place about as often as they have over the past year as Azerbaijan continues to look for ways to use its military might to press its claim over Nagorno-Karabakh. And as both sides re-evaluate their strategies, their findings will undoubtedly influence the fighting ahead.

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/azerbaijan-and-armenia-rethink-their-strategies

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

North-east direction

[HyeSocialist]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan and Armenia Rethink Their Strategies

Analysis APRIL 6, 2016 | 09:15 GMT

After four days of heavy fighting that threatened to escalate into a larger conflict, Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to a cease-fire. While the deal could halt most of the violence, skirmishes along the forces' line of contact will continue, and the risk of more serious flare-ups will remain high.

The latest round of fighting was the heaviest in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh since 1994, but it was relatively contained to the front lines. Azerbaijan likely wanted to avoid drawing in Russia, which may have intervened in the event of a wider conflict. The battlefield's geography also contributed to limiting the scope of military operations. Armenia and Azerbaijan have invested heavily in modernizing their militaries over the past two decades; Azerbaijan in particular has used the profits from exporting its sizable energy resources to expand its defense budget. Yet despite Azerbaijan's significantly upgraded firepower, it had no way to quickly dislodge Armenia's prepared and tenacious defenses from the region's mountainous terrain.

Air support, for instance, can be a vital tool against prepared and fixed defenses or enemy supply and relief convoys. Though Azerbaijan was able to use its bigger air force to gain the upper hand in the disputed region's airspace, Armenia's extensive land-based air defenses severely limited Azerbaijan's air support capabilities. Consequently, Azerbaijan had to rely on low-flying helicopter gunships and unmanned aerial vehicles during the fighting. Azerbaijani forces had some success with these aircraft, but it came at a heavy cost: Video footage confirmed that many of Azerbaijan's drones were lost or shot down.

With the air power of both sides significantly restricted, artillery support became the central feature of the conflict. Whereas armored vehicles were stalled by rough terrain and anti-tank defenses, tube and rocket artillery played a crucial role in reducing enemy defenses, supporting defending troops and interdicting supply lines. Given the substantial impact of the artillery systems, it would not be surprising if both sides continued to invest heavily in them.

In the face of Armenia's determined defense in difficult terrain, Azerbaijan opted to focus its efforts on incrementally seizing territory. Even then, Azerbaijan was aware that its slow and methodical strategy, based heavily on its technological and demographic advantages, was not foolproof. And as the final days of fighting showed, those advantages were not enough to ensure outright triumph on the battlefield.

Though both parties have claimed resounding victories, the fog of war still hangs heavy in Nagorno-Karabakh. We can draw informed conclusions about the tactics used in the fighting, but a more complete appraisal of the conflict will have to wait for the two countries' widely diverging assessments of territory gained and casualties inflicted to be reconciled. Still, that will not stop Armenia and Azerbaijan from drawing military lessons from the past few days of fighting.

Their conclusions will be important because the cease-fire will not endure. Expect violations to take place about as often as they have over the past year as Azerbaijan continues to look for ways to use its military might to press its claim over Nagorno-Karabakh. And as both sides re-evaluate their strategies, their findings will undoubtedly influence the fighting ahead.

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/az...eir-strategies

Armenia should look into establishing a separate "artillery division" that is responsible for not only 152mm guns and rocket artillery, but also UAV operations and anti air operations. A good model is Royal Artillery. Those boys have all the tools they need to bring down the house and are a good model for our forces. Also good would be systems like MAMBA or COBRA to find where their guns are and offer counter fire. We should also find ways of putting our towed artillery on obsolete tank chassis to provide them with more mobility. 54-72 152mm systems are all we need really along with a proper ammunition supply.

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

http://regnum.ru/news/polit/2112762.html

Putin once again saves Aliyev. What for?

[Hakob]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

If Moscow brokered a cease fire and both us and east turc agreed, then if tatar breaks cease fire, then can't Russia call them out on this ? If the slim to our east says with a lying mouth to cease fire but continues firing, cannot Russia supply us with radar to detect drones and electro magnetic equipment to stop drones ?
Cannot Russia counter the east scums disengenuous lies by supplying us with S 350 intermediate missiles or even S 400s ?
We both agreed to cease fire. Are there no penalties for the conniving fraud ?
Those Israeli drones and missiles can be dealt with by Russ technology. Look at Russian no fly around their bases in Syria.

The problem here is that we cannot trust Moscow, or Washington for the matter.
By the way, I am still suspicious for the fact that Russia did not warn us of Azery buildup prior to this war. Narrative could be that, if Our army lost controll and Azeris kept smashing in, then we would have no other way but ask for Russia's help. Of course Moscow would stop Azeris for "humanitarian" saving of Artsakh people from Azeris. And that would mean installing a Russian army in Artsakh just like in Abkhazia and Osetia.
But thanks to god and to our selfs. We will not let them make another Syria of us, so to play the heroes around us.
Washington/NATO have their own dirty games.
I don't consider Israeli drones or missiles a determining factor. If they were, Azeris would be by Stepanakert now. They just cause casualties.
Now we have seen what surprises Azeris have. No need to worry.
By stopping Azery army last week we put the world around us in new situation. We are not helpless.
Key is using this in diplomacy, and I agree with Vrej that our foreign department leaves a lot to desire.
The second point will be, if Azeris restart hostilities on large scale like this, take into consideration that losses are gonna be there in short term or in Azery stile ceasefire, so take the losses and mash the front up to gyanja, bomb Nakhijevan to dust. Create conditions for Azerbsijans break up.
Then we can say that Azeris won't attack.