Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Mher]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Fresh Truce Violations Reported In Karabakh

Հրապարակված է՝ 07.04.2016

Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenian-backed army said on Thursday that Azerbaijani troops launched two failed commando raids on its frontline positions overnight in continuing violations of a Russian-brokered ceasefire along the Karabakh “line of contact.”

According to a statement by the Defense Army, one of those “sabotage attacks” occurred near the northern Karabakh village of Talish, one of the epicenters of heavy Armenian-Azerbaijani fighting that broke out on Saturday. It said the attackers were repelled “in close combat,” leaving behind the body of an Azerbaijani army captain killed by Karabakh Armenian soldiers.

The Defense Army released photographs of what it described as identity documents of the 36-year-old Azerbaijani officer. The latter was identified as Vaqif Bayramov.

“The incident shows that Azerbaijan not only fails to respect the ceasefire agreement reached the previous day but is systematically trying to destabilize the already volatile situation with provocative steps,” the charged the army statement. It also alleged “numerous” other Azerbaijani truce violations.

Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry said in a statement on Thursday that the Armenians violated the cease-fire 119 times in the last 24 hours.

The ceasefire agreement was reached by Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s top army generals at a meeting in Moscow held on Tuesday. The intensity of hostilities along “the line of contact” appeared to have decreased significantly in the following hours.

Nevertheless, each warring side has since continued to accuse the other of shelling and shooting at its frontline positions. One Armenian soldier was killed near Talish on Wednesday evening by what the Karabakh army called Azerbaijani mortar fire.

http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/27660037.html

[Shant03]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Armenia needs to get on the offensive.. we're sitting ducks waiting to be attacked. Even if we kill 1000 of them, its not worth it if we lose 1 of our own.

[Spetsnaz]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Հայտնի է դարձել Ադրբեջանի ևս մեկ սպանված զինծառայողի՝ Մուսաև Սեբուհիի ինքնությունը

http://razm.info/82318

57...

[Spetsnaz]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

LOL

‘Four-day war’: Changed status quo, balance against Armenia

Baku – APA. Four days of the escalation over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict passed. These developments, which can call a “four-day war,” have plenty of political, military, and psychological consequences. The main result is that Azerbaijan has regained control of a part of the occupied territories. The status quo has been partly changed, and the military, political, and psychological balance is now against Armenia in many terms. The reason behind this imbalance is the military and psychological advantage Azerbaijan has gained following the “four-day war”.

Military advantages. For the first time since 22 years ago when the ceasefire deal was signed, Azerbaijan has regained control of a part of the occupied territories. Azerbaijani armed forces have retaken control of three strategic heights and complete liberated two villages from occupation. Furthermore, there are unofficial claims that the scale of the retaken areas is far larger than estimated. Armenia claimed to have taken back control of the areas whose liberation had been officially announced, but has so far been unable to release any footage proving such a claim. On the other hand, the fact that Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan acknowledged the Azerbaijani Army has advanced into separatist-held parts of the front line in two directions can be considered another psychological advantage for Azerbaijan.

One more military advantage is that the areas liberated are of strategic importance. This situation should be left to military experts to comment on, but basic knowledge about the geography of this occupied region and simple logic tells us that the enemy, having lost strategic heights, has to retreat further. From this point of view, a “+” can be added before the graph of Azerbaijan’s success in analyses on the consequences of the “four-day war”.


Psychological advantages. One of our psychological advantages is that confidence in the army’s combat capability is now proven. The hardened stereotype that it was going to take years to liberate the occupied lands tore down completely. Now everyone (including the Armenian people) believes the truth that the “Azerbaijani army is capable of liberating the occupied territories”. This factor has also boosted people’s morale. The public now understand the necessity of harmony between military and political attempts in resolving the conflict.

Social manifestation. Behavioral analysis of the Azerbaijani people over the last four days has revealed a very important factor: Regardless of their political, religious and racial affiliation, the people can unite around a goal in national matters. Compared to the operations of August, we shouldn’t lose sight of people’s understanding their civil responsibility more clearly. Activity on social networks, support for information warfare on different platforms, creating special hashtags, sharing materials in the public interest, active propaganda on the Armenian forums were conducted at the level of society not individuals. This should be considered one of the reasons behind the failure of “Armenia’s social subversive groups’ on Facebook and Twitter. The exponential increase in the number of volunteers appealing to the State Service on Mobilization, expansion of other social initiatives, crowd in military funerals, hanging of Azerbaijani flags on balconies, rooftops and cars are only part of the results of the military successes that have influenced on the society.

The changing of the status-quo. As for the effect of the process that is call a “Four-day war” on the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, this will be positive in terms of Azerbaijan’s interests.

I – Azerbaijan will sit at the negotiating table with military advantage added to its legal and political advantages that have been on “its luggage” until now.

II – The international community openly supports Azerbaijan’s position in the ongoing processes. We should not lose sight of the international institutions calling on Armenia to withdraw its troops from the occupied territories. Even the countries which covertly support Armenia’s interests in the conflict tried to maintain the balance while assessing the “four-day war”. This is an indirect support to the “surprise attack” and this support will further strengthen the advantage of Baku in the negotiations.

III - The results of the military operations will help change the dogmatic ideas that the conflict can be solved only by peaceful means. While assessing the problem, either forces interested in the region or the co-chair countries will have to accept the reality of the fact that processes can always get out control. In other words, option of military solution is automatically added in a scenario of conflict settlement. From now on, this fact will be taken into account during the negotiations.

IV – The recent developments for all disproved the scenario of maintaining the status quo. At present, all regional and international actors understand that the maintenance of the status quo is the most optimal way to escalate the conflict. If no significant changes happen in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan preserves the right to change the status quo, which was proved in the court of the “four-day” war.

V – Local societies give authorities a mandate for the resolution of the conflict. Results of the “four-day” war showed in what form the people of Azerbaijan and Armenia support their governments in the Karabakh problem. Comparing only the military funerals in both countries makes it possible to see the difference.

VI – The “four-day war" further reduced the possibility of Armenia’s government to manipulate the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in domestic politics. A large number of casualties and loss of control over part of the occupied territories will definitely weaken both internal and external (on the lobby level) support for the ‘Sargsyan regime’. On the other hand, the weakening of political support for Sargsyan can be considered an opportunity for the Armenian opposition. If this opportunity is taken properly, the country is more likely to destabilize.

http://en.apa.az/xeber____four-day_war_____changed_status_quo__bala_241824.html

[Spetsnaz]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Aha, so they claim that they have missing soldiers. I wonder how much of them are laying on our side... 100? 200?

Azerbaijan clarifying fate of soldiers reported missing in recent fighting on contact line

Baku – APA. Azerbaijan’s State Commission of Prisoners of War, Hostages and Missing People togehter with relevant government agencies and international organizations has launched an investigation in order to clarify the fate of Azerbaijani soldiers reported missing in the recent military operations on the contact line of Azerbaijani and Armenian troops, the Commission told AZERTAC.

The investigation was started on the basis of requests of several citizens, according to the Commission.

The Commission said that the results of the investigation will be made public.

http://en.apa.az/xeber_azerbaijan_clarifying_fate_of_soldiers_r_241821.html

[Azad]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The west wants to see a different leader in azerbaboonistan. Brits have been constantly pounding him.
Also, notice the apes acting like apes in the comment section. They are the same ones that are all over the social medias. They have couple hundred apes typing all day long.
It is funny how they turn everything to "Armenians" ... inferiority complex.

https://www.facebook.com/euronews/videos/10153804364883110/?fref=nf

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Russian expert: The Armenian side can strike a big blow to Azerbaijan’s economy (video)

17:53 | April 7,2016 | Politics
Inline images 1

In the interview to the Russian-Armenian news agency the Russian military expert Vladimir Yevseyev touched upon the resumed hostilities between the Nagorno Karabakh Republic and Azerbaijan.

“I think Baku aimed at setting control in the security zone in one or several circles. The beginning of the hostilities was relatively successful for Azerbaijan, but later, using tanks, the Azerbaijani side faced the fact that the tanks were destroyed. In general, their operation wasn’t a success; the Azerbaijani side has numerous killed soldiers,” he highlighted.

The military expert also spoke about the soldiers fighting from the Azerbaijani side, “We have information that Turkish servicemen and Ukrainian mercenaries helped the Azerbaijani side.”

Mr. Yevseyev highlighted the fact that the NKR capital Stepanakert isn’t far from the border. “Azerbaijan could strike a blow against Stepanakert using heavy military equipment. It is clear that the consequences would be very serious. I think that the Armenian side would destroy Azerbaijan’s pipelines, which aren’t far from the border. It relates both gas and oil pipelines. It means that it would be a blow at Azerbaijan’s economy. For that reason, the threats connected with shelling Stepanakert, were provocations, like all the other actions, which were conducted.”

The expert draws attention to the fact that the Armenian side has appropriate position in some places, in high parts, and could attack Azerbaijan and pass the border. “Here Russia did its best in order to convince Armenia and the NKR Armed forces not to conduct retaliatory attack.”

Speaking about the role of the CSTO, he noted, “I think, it isn’t worth pinning hopes on the CSTO. It is worth pinning hopes on the Russian-Armenian allied relations. There are various states in the CSTO; some of them support Azerbaijan. Speaking about the armed forces of two sides, Mr Yevseyev said, “If we compare the armed forces of Azerbaijan and two Armenian states, we can say that Azerbaijan has advantage in the number of tanks, but there is no quality advantage. I think, Azerbaijan doesn’t have resources for lasting hostilities.”

https://youtu.be/G9rxrQFk290

http://en.a1plus.am/1232879.html

[HyeSocialist]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Photos of another Israeli HARPY NG self-destructive drone that was shot down.

The Israelis are selling the xxxx out of their weapon. Let's use this against the Azeris. Lets use this as propaganda showing that Aliyev and his country are really Israeli patrons.

[Joseph]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

As per Emil Sanamyan on FB (with some editing on my part):

Spokesman for NKR Defense Army did confirm the Az control of Lala Tapa hills. Of course the claim in Kommersant article ( http://kommersant.ru/doc/2957011_) about Chojuk Marjanli & Mehdili doesnt make sense since they (the Azeris) controlled Chojuk Marjanli fully and Mehdili partly since the ceasefire in 1994.

The az mod made a similar claim re 'capturing' Seysulan, which they've also controlled since the 1990s. So on balance they did manage to seize Lala Tapa, about 100 mts from their original lines, but also embellished that with additional claims that are blatantly false.

Today the Azeris were also still claiming control of heights over Talish but that's clearly not the case per media reporting from that exact location, including these photos from yesterday https://twitter.com/armen_reporter/s...92270431477761

[Mher]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

As per Emil Sanamyan on FB:

Spokesman for NKR Defense Army did confirm the Az control of Lala Tapa hills. Of course the claim in Kommersant article ( http://kommersant.ru/doc/2957011_) about Chojuk Marjanli & Mehdili doesnt make sense since they (the Azeris) controlled Chojuk Marjanli fully and Mehdil9 partly since the ceasefire in 1994.

The az mod made a similar claim re 'capturing' Seysulan which they also controlled since the 1990s. So on balance they did manage to get keep Lala Tapa about 100 mts from their original lines but also embellished that with additional claims.

Today the Azeris were also still claiming control of heights over Talish but thats clearly not the case per media reporting from location inc these photos from yesterday https://twitter.com/armen_reporter/s...92270431477761

Great photo, thanks for the update.
I still consider this total victory. Maybe if they have 10,000,000 more soldiers to spare, for 1,000 soldiers per hill, they can reach stepanakert.