Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Thank you for posting that. I enjoyed the interview. This career soldier seemed to be a calm level headed individual, exactly the kind of person we need to be making decisions in critical situations.

[armo12]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

We had one in 2012

It was in artsakh

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

It should be obvious even for the azeris that they dont have the means yet to crush artsakh army. They would need hundreds of planes and helicopters to overwhelm anti air defenses. Thousands of missles and parashute hundreds of sf troops in strategical areas in the mids of night. They just dont have the qualified commited troops to do that either. Even their turkish educated troops got destroyed by 18 year old conscripts.

We also saw that a blitzkrieg is fruitless. Modern ATGM made tanks walking death coffins. If they get surgical guided missles capabilites then maybe they can get somewhere i think. Aka cruise missles. But who would sell them that? Pakis maybe?

[Bigdikran]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

how much accurate is this video?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lNXTFnL3cQ

[armnuke]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

It should be obvious even for the azeris that they dont have the means yet to crush artsakh army. They would need hundreds of planes and helicopters to overwhelm anti air defenses. Thousands of missles and parashute hundreds of sf troops in strategical areas in the mids of night. They just dont have the qualified commited troops to do that either. Even their turkish educated troops got destroyed by 18 year old conscripts.

We also saw that a blitzkrieg is fruitless. Modern ATGM made tanks walking death coffins. If they get surgical guided missles capabilites then maybe they can get somewhere i think. Aka cruise missles. But who would sell them that? Pakis maybe?

Pakis should be worried about their own a$$es now.

[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

It should be obvious even for the azeris that they dont have the means yet to crush artsakh army. They would need hundreds of planes and helicopters to overwhelm anti air defenses. Thousands of missles and parashute hundreds of sf troops in strategical areas in the mids of night. They just dont have the qualified commited troops to do that either. Even their turkish educated troops got destroyed by 18 year old conscripts.

We also saw that a blitzkrieg is fruitless. Modern ATGM made tanks walking death coffins. If they get surgical guided missles capabilites then maybe they can get somewhere i think. Aka cruise missles. But who would sell them that? Pakis maybe?

They are running out of money. I doubt they will be acquiring much new anything. I think the four day war was a test which we passed and now they no longer have illusions of great victory. If our side is doing the right things, any further attack by them will result in disaster for them and leave the door open for a very costly counter. I hope we are on the verge of this war coming to an end. I fear the regional conflicts started by the "West" in Syria and Lybia will spill over to our region as well. I am much more worried about threats from Turkey and its islamists than about the Azeris. If we can keep Armenians in Armenia, the Azeris will never be able to do anything to us. The West and Israel are not just destabilizing the region but they are enabling our enemies by arming and training them. Turks, Jihadists...are all armed and trained by the west and represent the biggest foreign threats to Armenia. Even the Azeris are supplied and trained by western entities like Israel. It was the Israeli drones that blew up our tanks and personal carriers with our soldiers inside. People are so brainwashed that they are turning a blind eye to our true enemies while they try their hardest to turn our only ally into a enemy as well and then they will say that we have no allies... Western countries enabled Turkey to commit the genocide, they made it impossible for us to reclaim our lands, they arm, supply, train our enemies, they encourage them to attack us, the west has a proven track record of being extremely antiarmenian yet the sheeple are ready to bow down to it with no reservations. Pathetic.

[armnuke]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

how much accurate is this video?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lNXTFnL3cQ

inaccurate. I can assure 100%

[armnuke]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Show Me Documents that Russia Continues Selling Armaments to Azerbaijan: RF Ambassador to RA

“Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can be settled only through peaceful means, by negotiations,” Ivan Volinkin, Ambassador extraordinary and plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the Republic of Armenia, stated at the press conference on May 9.

“In this case my opinion is, that this conflict should be solved only peacefully. This conflict should not be settled militarily, it should be settled around a negotiating table. There is no other way”, the Ambassador said. “Show me documents that Russia continues selling armaments to Azerbaijan”, the Ambassador said by answering a reporter’s question that Russia continues selling weaponry to Azerbaijan in the current tense situation.

To a reporter’s observation that there was an announcement on resumption of selling arms, the Ambassador said: “But it doesn’t mean that it continues selling”. A reporter asked: “Meaning, Russia is not selling armaments to Azerbaijan?” The Ambassador did not give a clear answer and said that Russia is selling armaments to Armenia too.

http://en.168.am/2016/05/09/6721.html

[armnuke]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Thomas de Waal: More Fighting is Likely to Break out after the Formula 1 Race in Baku Ends in late June

Senior Associate at Carnegie Europe Thomas de Waal writes in Politico,

“Four days of violence in April unfroze the generation-old Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

A new truce was signed to halt the recent outbreak of violence in the Caucasus between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. But it is fragile and has lready been broken. As Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan acknowledged, there could be more fighting “at any moment.”

It is no exaggeration to say that Armenia and Azerbaijan are two or three steps away from a Bosnia-style conflict that could be deleterious for the wider region. What can be done to stop that happening?

The Karabakh conflict is as old as it is intractable. From 1991-94 Armenians and Azerbaijanis fought a hot war over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. The territory was part of Soviet Azerbaijan but its population was three-quarters Armenian. The Armenian side prevailed, leaving 20,000 dead and displacing more than 1million.

A ceasefire was signed in 1994. Armenians were given de facto possession not just of Nagorno-Karabakh itself, but (in whole, or in part) of seven Azerbaijani regions unrelated to the original dispute. The Armenians called the territory a protective buffer zone.

The 1994 ceasefire was supposed to be a prelude to the peace agreement that never came. The international community’s eyes and ears in the region consist of just six monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

The ceasefire has been under heavy strain for a couple of years now. Azerbaijan has been building up its store of heavy weapons and both sides have engaged in rhetoric more extreme than at the height of the conflict in the 1990s.

The ceasefire finally cracked on April 2. The most likely cause was an Azerbaijani attempt to test the Armenians’ defenses and force them to negotiate from a weaker position. The Azerbaijani military regained some slivers of lost territory — and an awful lot of lost pride. But the human price was high. Officially, several dozen people were killed. Experts put the death toll nearer to 200, including many civilians.

The four-day war stirred up long-seated anger and sharpened mutual insecurities. Azerbaijanis still feel humiliated by defeats suffered more than 20 years ago. There was a patriotic upsurge of euphoria through-out the country, a useful distraction from the socioeconomic crisis that has seen its currency, the manat, devalued twice in the last year. The temptation — and, worryingly, the public pressure — to try this kind offensive again is enormous.

Armenia saw a similar surge of nationalist emotion. Caught flat-footed by fighting, the country witnessed a sobering few days. Young Armenians volunteered to join the front line.

Given the massive arsenals of weaponry both sides now possess, new fighting could easily escalate into an all-out conflict far more destructive than the 1991-94 war. Baku and Yerevan could invoke their military assistance treaties with Turkey and Russia respectively. Neither wants to get involved, but would be under big pressure to honor their commitments in the region.

Other regional neighbors are also alarmed. Georgia, in particular, could become caught in the cross-hairs. Armenians and Azerbaijanis constitute Georgia’s two biggest minorities. The BP-run Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline that runs through the country could also become a target.

A security vacuum has opened up around Karabakh. It will only be filled by serious peace talks — or by more fighting.

The formal peace process has been close to moribund for five years. Neither President Ilham Aliyev nor President Sargsyan has said anything constructive or conciliatory. The conflict’s three mediators and co-chairs of the OSCE’s “Minsk Group” — France, Russia and the United States — have had to limit themselves to shuttle diplomacy. Their modest ideas are routinely rejected.

The three co-chairs have said they want to launch “comprehensive negotiations.” These could take the form of a peace conference chaired by the three foreign ministers.

It’s an important step, but the two presidents want very different things. The Azerbaijani side wants new negotiations and to use its military force as leverage. The Armenian side is digging in harder — they are reluctant to agree to anything that might look like submission to Azerbaijani military pressure and have demanded “security guarantees.”

Can this crisis be contained before it escalates? We first need to challenge one common preconception: the idea that Russia can fill that security vacuum and manage the conflict.

Russia’s top officials did swing into action and negotiate a verbal ceasefire on April 5. But Russia has done little since then. Its problem is that it has simultaneously mediated and destabilized the conflict.

The Russians have been selling arms to both sides. An estimated 85 percent of Azerbaijan’s weaponry comes from Russia, while Russia has a military alliance with Armenia, sealed by a new treaty signed in 2010.

This balancing game means that Russia is unable to set the agenda in Karabakh. Both Baku and Yerevan are skeptical of Russia’s intentions.

In Armenia especially, the new backlash against Russia is significant. Because Russia has no military presence on the ground and no monopoly on the peace process, both countries can block plans for a Russian peace-keeping force that would reassert its influence in the region.

So the common belief that, if things get worse “Russia can handle it,” is misplaced. This poses a challenge to the United States and France. Neither has done enough to offer a balanced international plan.

Unless progress is made now, more fighting is likely to break out after the international spectacle of Azerbaijan’s much-coveted Formula 1 race in Baku ends in late June. We can only hope that the prospect of more intense fighting in the Caucasus, and its dangerous implications for the region, will concentrate minds on solving a conflict that has been ignored for too long.”

http://en.168.am/2016/05/09/6707.html

[armnuke]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Why Russia Postpones Armaments Supply by USD 200 million Loan and when will the Process be Launched?

Why Russia Postpones Armaments Supply by USD 200 million Loan and when will the Process be Launched?
“Russia postpones armaments supply to Armenia out of objective reasons,” Anatoly Tsyganok, head of the Center of Military Prognosis, Russian military expert, told 168.am, touching upon postponing of armaments pursuant the agreement on purchase of armaments by USD 200 million loan from Russia.

Note, throughout the four-day April war it became clear that armaments pursuant USD 200 million loan agreement didn’t reach to Armenia. Moreover, the delegation of Seyran Ohanyan, RA Minister of Defense, left for Moscow to participate in the 5th International Conference on Security to be launched on April 27. After the visit it became clear, that purpose of Armenian delegation was acceleration of armaments supply process.

However, at the same time, these days Azerbaijani websites spread unclarified information, that Russia continues armaments supply to Azerbaijan. It refers Vena 120mm self-propelled guns and BTR-82A armored vehicles, modernized by contemporary electronic systems, in case, when months ago Dmitri Rogozin, RF Deputy PM, then Sergey Shoygu, RF Defense Minister, not giving turn to one another, were leaving for Baku, so that the latter paid for the supplied armaments, as Russian media outlets reported of postponing. After all this it turns out, Russia doesn’t allocate to Armenia the armaments pursuant the loan agreement, meanwhile, essentially, it supplies armaments to Azerbaijan “on credit.”

Tsyganok conditioned postponing of armaments to Armenia by other circumstances. According to him, it’s not Russia, that postpones implementation of its liabilities, but crisis is existent in Russia.

“If we observe the situation in the South Caucasus, we’ll understand, that Azerbaijan owes Russia 5 times much money, than Armenia, by that very accord. I want to attach attention to the following: it doesn’t supply to Azerbaijan, although the latter purchased more armaments pursuant the agreement. Thus, this exclusively is a crisis implication. Whatever Russia does, is being criticized, meanwhile crisis limits Russia. Russia will supply as soon as possible, moreover, on account of the fact, that the accord with Armenia, is an agreement of a military ally. Possibly, it’ll be supplied after mobilization,” Tsyganok said.

Touching upon information circulating in Azerbaijani media outlets, that these days it obtains armaments, he said, he couldn’t clarify that information at that very moment. “However, it seems suspicious to me, as RF Deputy PM Rogozin directly stated in Azerbaijan a month ago, meanwhile the latter didn’t implement its contractual liabilities and hasn’t paid yet; it won’t get armaments. Moreover, Rogozin, who is responsible for the military-industrial field, stated this, and I don’t consider it would be supplied without payments. I don’t think that information is grounded, on account of facts,” he noticed.

To the observation, that the RF embassy official clearly stated, that Russian armaments wasn’t sent to Artsakh, meanwhile it wasn’t recognized by Armenia. What does it mean? He said, that Armenia didn’t recognize Artsakh’s independence, thus, this statement is natural. “Regarding this question the Armenian side is right. Both presidents said it’s not proper, and NKR status should be clarified. OSCE MG documents are in force, Azerbaijan should take into consideration opinions by RA first president,” Tsyganok concluded.

http://en.168.am/2016/05/09/6729.html