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Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan
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Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan
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Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan
A very well written but extremely long report about the Karabakh war and the chances both sides have for victory.
Article Alexander Khramchikhin - situationally balanced and objective - is a rare case of an unbiased analysis of the vestibule and the consequences of armed aggression against Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. In this commentary to this article, we will not affect the author's opinions on political solutions, as they say, any opinion has the right to life. However, there appears to be a need to correct some of the figures used by respected author. I, of course, far from thinking to believe that A. Khramchikhin deliberately misrepresented them: the problem, I think, that he used the so-called "open", published in the press figures.
In our comments, which of course, we almost did not touch on the quantity and quality of the current armament of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. But here to talk about "starting resources and results of military aggression of Azerbaijan is necessary.
Thus, A. Khramchikhin writes that "after the collapse of the Soviet Union (Azerbaijan) to get 436 tanks, 947 armored combat vehicles (558 infantry combat vehicles and 389 armored personnel carriers), 388 artillery systems, 63 aircraft and 8 helicopters. Figures, especially for 1991 when the USSR collapsed, more than impressive. And yet, they are far from complete. The above statistics reflect only the official transfer of arms and sold to Azerbaijan does not consider certain unscrupulous Soviet commanders. In addition, Khramchikhin, of course, does not account for weapons, stolen Azerbaijan from other CIS countries during the chaos after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Meanwhile, stolen were numerous, including military aircraft SU-25 and a squadron of attack helicopters. For absolutely reliable information source that I can not specify in March 1992, Azerbaijan had 72 aircraft (24 of them "Sparky", the Czech military and sport aircraft L-29 and L-31). Armenia, by the way, there were two, not three, as indicated by A. Khramchikhin, aircraft.
During the period of military aggression efforts protivovozdushyh forces, as well (three times) through the thermal rockets of the "Arrow", the NKR Defense Army managed to shoot down 28 enemy fighter planes and 16 military attack helicopters, mostly to the Mi-24 "Crocodile".
Azerbaijan has in fact was not 436 tanks (Khramchikhin indicates the total number received by Azerbaijan equipment, excluding the degree of deterioration), and slightly less - 382. These authors obtained data on the number of Azerbaijan's armored combat vehicles (ACV) coincide with ours. At the beginning of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic in Azerbaijan's aggression was 2 tanks and 3 armored combat vehicles (2 BMP-1 and 1 APC). Thus, if the sum belonging to Azerbaijan, heavy machinery (382 947 = 1329), their number exceeds the number of heavy military equipment NKR Defense Army, nearly 266 times. At the same time, I want to note that if you take into account the figures given A. Khramchikhin, the advantage in heavy equipment in Azerbaijan over the Nagorno Karabakh Republic is even more enormous: 436 947 = 1383, there were more military equipment in Karabakh 276.6 times. One thing is clear: no matter what the numbers were taken for the original - or our A. Khramchikhin - on the part of military equipment in Azerbaijan has been an incredible advantage over Nagorno-Karabakh. In this case, it should be noted that the NKR were only a few anti-hail, that is not originally equipped for combat, guns, while armed with Azerbaijan was about 400 artillery pieces (Khramchikhin indicates number 388). Moreover, Azerbaijan has been to four dozen rocket-propelled multiple rocket launchers (MRL) of BM-21 Grad rockets, which were not in NKR.
I specifically spend a comparison of firepower with the possibilities of Azerbaijan is the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic since the end of May 1992 the NKR was in a total blockade, resulting in Armenia was deprived of the opportunity to provide his kinsmen in the NKR any effective assistance, especially in the transfer of military equipment . It should be noted that a considerable number of loud and glorious victories (Tor, Sarinshen, Malibeklu, Khojalu Shushi Lisogor, Lachin, ...) were won before the release of Artsakh and the reunification with Armenia.
Thus, even if one considers that half of Azerbaijan's military equipment was outside the theater of military operations (TVD) in Artsakh, it must be recognized that Azerbaijan, with an incredible advantage in the human forces and military equipment, has lost much more scarce, almost naked people of Artsakh.
Raise serious concerns and are listed in the article numbers lost Azerbaijan military equipment. Even if you add on the destroyed during the fighting and "retired" after the war, Azerbaijan technique, still, the figures clearly not the case, in which, no doubt, no guilt Khramchikhin. Only during December - January 1993-1994, the NKR Defense Army repulsed the enemy (padded and completely intact) 112 tanks (including the - 87 T-72 tanks and 25 T-55), 64 BMP 1 and 2, 16 multiple rocket system, 11 ACS and other equipment (about Azerbaijan by Armenian forces shot down aircraft and helicopters has already been mentioned). This, recall, is about chipped technique. A considerable number of damaged and burnt remains of Azerbaijani art on the side of the enemy or it was completely unusable for recovery.
In early March 1993, the counteroffensive NKR through Levonarkh-Talysh, who fled in a panic the enemy left the battlefield 41 tanks (32 T-55 and 9 T-72), 11 BMP, 2 APCs, 8 MLRS BM-21, an ACS. If you add on to the figures captured from the enemy machines in Shushi (5 tanks, 2 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, and 2) in Khojalu Dzhangasane, Lisogor, Berdzor (Lachin), Acne (Agdam), Fizuli Karvachar, Jebrail, Gubatlu, Zangelan, .. we can easily get the answer to the question of arming the "gray zone". As well as the chances of the Azerbaijani military solution to any problems with the Armenian states.
Levon Melik-Shahnazaryan
H marketing war in the Caucasus to be!
In recent years, both in Yerevan and in Baku has been a sharp tightening of rhetoric on Karabakh problem. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is increasingly said that his country is ready to resolve the Karabakh conflict by military means, because peace is not obtained. In turn, President Serzh Sargsyan at the recent plenary session of the OSCE in Astana felt obliged to note that Azerbaijan has neither legal nor political or moral reasons for the claims to the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. The Armenian leader said that Armenia recognizes the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, Baku will start if the fighting against it.
Does not embarrass himself in the media statements of the two states, urging to go to war as soon as possible. There are reports that many of the Armenian and Azerbaijani diaspora has already begun to mobilize. And on the front line of Azerbaijani and Armenian troops regularly erupt shooting, leading to casualties and accompanied by mutual accusations of ceasefire violations.
Armed thoroughly
In this connection it is interesting to consider the balance of forces parties to the Karabakh conflict.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union and Armenia, and Azerbaijan, and self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno Karabakh have won a certain percentage of "inheritance" of the Soviet army. Exact - took them exactly the portion that was in their territory. Only a certain number of cruise missiles and helicopters sufficiently powerful aviation group, stationed in the former Azerbaijani SSR, managed to overtake Russia.
Meanwhile, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, dividing the Soviet quota established by the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), have their own quotas for weapons and military equipment. For example, all three countries of the Caucasus were allowed to have on the 220 tanks, 220 armored combat vehicles, 285 artillery, 100 combat aircraft and 50 attack helicopters.
In reality, Azerbaijan after the collapse of the Soviet Union got 436 tanks, 947 armored combat vehicles (558 infantry combat vehicles and 389 armored personnel carriers), 388 artillery systems, 63 aircraft and 8 helicopters. Armenia is at the beginning of 1993 was only 77 tanks, 189 armored combat vehicles (150 infantry fighting vehicles and 39 armored personnel carriers), 160 pieces of artillery, 3 planes and 13 helicopters. In this case, however, Nagorno-Karabakh is a kind of "gray zone": The local Armenian armed forces seized a small amount of weapons abolished the Transcaucasus Military District, in addition, some samples were unaccounted IWT Stepanakert handed Yerevan.
Despite the fact that figures on the state of the Nagorno Karabakh troops at the beginning of the Karabakh war are uncertain, there is no doubt that the newborn Azerbaijani army had a very significant advantage in size and technical equipment of the enemy - as has recently emerged into the light parts of the Army of the Republic of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. In addition, many Armenian Armed Forces had to guard the border with Turkey, which is fully supported Azerbaijan (only presence on the Armenian territory of the Russian troops prevented the direct intervention of Ankara in the conflict on the side of Baku).
Despite the apparent superiority in men and equipment, the Azeris were defeated in the war of 1992-1994. Under the control of the Armenians moved not only almost all of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast of Azerbaijan SSR, but also the adjacent areas of Azerbaijan proper. Before the war, Karabakh is not in contact with Armenia, it is now between them at the expense of the captured Azerbaijani regions come to lie a common border, and quite extended. And now occupied by the troops of the NKR position is very convenient for the defense. In addition, during the 16 years that have passed since the cessation of active hostilities, they were well fortified, which contributed to a very mountainous terrain.
When the front line there was a lull, it appeared that the parties incurred during the war, considerable damage. So, Armenia acknowledged the loss of 52 T-72 tanks, 54 infantry fighting vehicles, 40 armored personnel carriers, six artillery pieces and mortars (which were deprived of the NKR troops, unknown). Azerbaijan is not counted 186 tanks (160 - T-72 and 26 - T-55), 111 infantry combat vehicles, eight armored personnel carriers, seven ACS, 47 guns and mortars, five MLRS, 14-16 aircraft, five or six helicopters. In addition, shortly after the Armistice had to write off injured in the battles of the tank 43 (including 18 T-72), 83 BMP, 31 BTR, a self-propelled guns, 42 guns and mortar rounds, eight MLRS.
True, the Azeris managed to repulse the Armenians have more than two dozen T-72 tanks, 14 APCs, a self-propelled guns, eight guns and mortars. However, many lost Azerbaijani troops technology into the hands of the enemy or in good repair, or with minor injuries.
Of course, in the first half of the 90 newly created army of Azerbaijan has little resemblance to the regular troops, it is much more like a guerrilla (albeit with tanks, artillery, aviation). But fail to explain just this circumstance it is impossible. Just because the same can be said about the enemy.
During the reporting period, both the army (or rather - all three) parties to the conflict have been a big evolution in the direction of becoming a regular armed force. After the war, they are naturally equipped with an active. For Armenia, the most important source of imports of military equipment has been Russia, something that was purchased in Eastern Europe. In addition, Yerevan became the sole buyer today MLRS Chinese WM-80 (has four) that are copied in China without a license from Russia's "Cyclone".
Azerbaijan thanks to oil revenues is modernizing forces is much more energetic: in fact its military budget is four times higher than in Armenia. At a major supplier of arms of Baku Kiev claims, but generally it was bought in many countries, including Russia, which in 2006 sold to Azerbaijan in 1962 used the T-72.
As a result, Azerbaijan was the only one of 30 participants CFE country, which has exceeded its contractual quota, and once on two classes of weapons - tanks (381 unit on January 1, 2010, by the way, they are less than in the UK or in Holland, Belgium and Norway combined) and artillery (425 anti-tank weapon). In addition, Baku acknowledges in his army 181 armored combat vehicles, 75 combat aircraft and 15 attack helicopters.
With regard to Armenia, according to the data it provides to the CFE Treaty, the quantitative parameters of its armed forces remain stable for many years and more and more inferior Azerbaijani Sun On January 1, 2010, said Yerevan, the Armenian army, there were 110 tanks, 140 armored combat vehicles, 239 artillery systems, 16 aircraft and 8 helicopters.
In this case, of course, has not disappeared is the same "gray zone" of Karabakh. According to Azerbaijani sources, the armed forces of the unrecognized republic have 316 tanks, 324 armored combat vehicles, 322 artillery system. And a surprising consistency to the presence of military equipment in the Armenian army suggests that at least some of the samples acquired Yerevan IWT passed Stepanakert.Comment
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Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan
Our business - non-interference
If we talk about the main strategic ally, each of the parties, for those of Yerevan is Moscow, and for the Baku - Ankara. However, Azerbaijan has no borders with Turkey, but has as its northern neighbor, Russia. In Armenia, the situation is quite the opposite: it is separated from Russia hundreds of kilometers, but the neighboring states in the south - Turkey.
However, the remoteness of the RF offset located in Gyumri (he is in the past - Alexandroupoli and Leninakan) Russian 102 th military base - our large military forces abroad. It was created based on 127 Motorized Rifle Division, and it has about 100 tanks, 300 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, about 20 self-propelled guns and multiple rocket system. The composition groups also includes 18 MiG-29 (in 3624 the first airbase in Erebuni) and anti-aircraft missile brigade S-300V (in Russia itself, only four of these teams are equipped with very powerful guided missile system).
Yerevan, not only does not require the Moscow rent for the base, but in fact he pays to its content. In addition, Russian forces used a large number of Armenians who have Russian citizenship. Clearly, in which case the protection of tribesmen, they stand a wall and probably will fight for them no worse than the Russians.
Armenia - a member of the CSTO. Consequently, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are required in case of war (at least if it begins to Azerbaijan) to come to her aid. However, there is almost no doubt that in reality this will not happen. Because of the oil and gas issues, which do not allow Moscow to quarrel seriously with Baku (as stated above, she even supplies to Azerbaijan offensive weapons), and simply because of the reluctance to get involved in a wider conflict management of the Russian Federation would refer to the "good cause": Azerbaijan because attacks are not itself Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, which is de jure like and do not exist. Immediately "forgotten", as quite similar to the behavior of Georgia in 2008 - an attack on anyone not to recognize South Ossetia - Moscow has announced the treacherous aggression. Submit the same as in aid to Armenia, others will state the CSTO, so absurd that discuss this issue does not make sense.
However, Turkey is also not eager to participate in hostilities. Firstly, due to a noticeable improvement in relations with Armenia (although the process of rapprochement between Ankara and Yerevan stopped halfway), and secondly, because of the risk of direct military confrontation with Russia (after all, in Armenia - the grouping of the Armed Forces). Turkish leaders will be referenced to the fact that "mess brewed" Azerbaijan, as these things are very bad.
Iran during the previous Armenian-Azerbaijani war clearly showed what a chimera is an "Islamic solidarity" by supporting not a Muslim (in fact - Shia!) Azerbaijan, Armenia and the Orthodox. This was due to very bad relations between Tehran and Ankara - the main patron of Baku. Now the Iranian-Turkish and the Iranian-Azerbaijani relations have improved markedly, but did not have deteriorated, and the Iranian-Armenian. There is no reason to doubt that Tehran will retain neutrality, maybe it's just more balanced than in the 90's.
Of course, we should not forget about the West. Its position will be affected by two opposing factors - the powerful Armenian diaspora (particularly in the U.S. and France) and the critical importance of Azerbaijan for numerous oil and gas projects, alternative Russian plans to maintain the status of the main supplier of hydrocarbons. Make the choice here is difficult. However, U.S. military intervention, not to mention European countries, it is absolutely impossible. The West will surely violently demand from Yerevan and Baku to immediately stop the war. And together with Russia.
And unbearable, and "itching" ...
Accordingly, as the decade and a half ago, if a war breaks out, it will come with a probability very close to 100 percent, but between Azerbaijan on the one hand, and Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh - on the other.
As shown above, Azerbaijan today Armenia has achieved over the almost four-fold superiority in tanks, double - in the artillery and attack helicopters, five times - in the combat aircraft (50-fold - a fighter). True, the NKR Supreme Council are not taken into account. There is reason to suspect that the Army of Karabakh as a minimum not less than the Armenian Army. Therefore, the advantage of the Azerbaijanis in the world if there is then very small. At the same time on the Armenian side is geography. The quality of the arms the same: Armed Forces of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Nagorno Karabakh are equipped almost exclusively on Soviet technology. Consequently, a successful attack (a full refund of the lost territories) Azerbaijani potential completely inadequate. If luck smiles Azerbaijani units, they will move a few miles, and then fight them will have nothing.
Only in the air Azerbaijan has a great advantage. The only Armenian Mig-25 is rather a curious (no longer in the world States Air Force which would have one fighter). Azerbaijan has the same 32 MiG-25. Although the use of them little more than an Armenian. The fact that the MiG-25 - a very special airplane. In the Air Defense Forces of the USSR it was intended to counter strategic bombers and scouts the U.S., not for air combat maneuvering. In order to solve tactical problems, he will not do. In addition, the MiG-25 just very outdated, in Russia it is withdrawn from service in the early 90's.
But over the battlefield should work fine Su-25, whom opponents by 15 points. There are still five in Azerbaijan, frontline Su-24 bombers capable of striking at ground targets, and the same old, but very sturdy Su-17. And to those most maneuverable air fights can five ancient, but quite suitable for this theater of the MiG-21 and 13 on the new MiG-29, purchased in Ukraine. Armenians have the same, except for a curious MiG-25, no nothing. Naturally, the Air Force is easily neutralized by the Armenian Azeri Su-25, no fighter cover, allowing you to freely fly their bombers and attack aircraft. Yes, and attack helicopters Mi-24 from Azerbaijan almost double the superiority of (15:8).
Yet the shock power of the Azerbaijani Air Force (40 bombers, attack aircraft and helicopters) are not large enough to make a decisive break in the fighting on the ground. In addition, Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh have ground defense (at least 20 air defense missile system "Osa", 40 Igla, an unknown number of SAM "Circle", C-75, S-125 Strela-10 "Strela-2 "ZSU" Shilka "), which is in the mountains can be very effective. During the first war the Armenians shot down two dozen planes and helicopters.
Thus, at present, Azerbaijan has enough force to count on a sure victory. Nevertheless, while clearly plays to his advantage because of much greater economic power. And that's why now want to re war broke out, Armenians. While they can count on success in a very significant weakening of the Azerbaijani military capabilities that Baku will have 15-20 years to recover. Moreover, it is possible that the Armenian troops will try to make a throw to the north, to Minchegaurskomu reservoir, thereby cutting Azerbaijan into two isolated parts. Or three, if we Nakhichevan. Meanwhile, it also may be subject to attack and defend it to Azerbaijan is unlikely.
However, this method has great disadvantages. Firstly, there is no numerical superiority of the Armenian side has not, so just a crushing defeat of the enemy is possible only in case of a complete surprise. That now is the real absurdity (the article itself with a discussion of options for war means that there is no suddenness of today is not feasible). Secondly, it is very difficult for the Armenians would be political consequences, because they will be the aggressors, attacking the territory of which from any point of view belongs to Azerbaijan. As a result, the Armenians will lose the support of not only Iran but also almost certainly Russia and the West. And Turkey and generally can not resist and to strike at Armenia.
Therefore, the most profitable for Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh option - Azerbaijan provoke attack first. And the sooner the better. For Baku has a very "itchy hands" because of what may well seem that the effort to win enough today. And since they have been shown above, in fact, is not enough, the Armenians, well-appointed defense positions, will be able to solve the main problem of the war - vybyut offensive potential of Azerbaijan (to make the march to the north would no longer be needed).
At the same time with the military leadership of Azerbaijan tolerate and complete a political defeat as in the international arena and in their country: they themselves went to war and lost again! In addition, NKR then turns out no one recognized the republic in the partially recognized state (recall the statement of Armenian President in Astana).
Obvious conclusion
We must realize that problems like Nagorno-Karabakh, has never been resolved by peace agreements. Never breakaway regions did not return voluntarily in the country (we call it the metropolis), from which previously separated by war. Another option would be three.
1. Ex-Metropolitan recognizes the independence of the new state. So far in this regard, there is only one "full" precedent: Ethiopia has agreed with the existence of sovereign Eritrea. It arose only because the Eritrean separatists in 1991, took a direct part in the overthrow of the government in Addis Ababa. Their Ethiopian allies at the time could not deny Eritreans in the recognition of independence, to the same country simply did not have the strength to keep the province in which the war is not subsiding. Naturally, such an option to Baku for the NKR today totally excluded.
2. Metropolis by force regains its sovereignty over the unrecognized state, after which all the questions and contradictions are removed. This category of Biafra in Nigeria, Katanga in Zaire (now Democratic Republic of Congo), the Serbian Krajina in Croatia, and Chechnya in Russia. A similar attempt to restore Georgia's South Ossetia turned into a failure.
3. The question hangs for a long time. This category refers to Northern Cyprus, Transnistria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Nagorno Karabakh and Kosovo. However, within this latter category, scroll to "subcategory of" partially recognized states - Kosovo (recognized by nearly 70 countries), Abkhazia and South Ossetia (4), North Cyprus (1), who also came under very strong military defense (NATO, Russia and Turkey, respectively). "Quite unrecognized" were only Transnistria and Nagorno-Karabakh.
The problem of unrecognized states, as is known, has arisen because of an irreconcilable conflict between two fundamental principles of legal rules to regulate relations in the international arena - the inviolability of borders and the right of nations to self-determination. The situation is almost always aggravated by the fact that the immediate cause of the unrecognized state conflicts are ethnic and / or religious nature, irrational in its essence and it is therefore absolutely unapologetic in psychological terms. They are accompanied by reciprocal extremely brutal repression, and this can not be forgotten for a long time. Nagorno-Karabakh conflict - one of the most blatant examples of this kind. In this case, for NKR no powerful patron, as in Kosovo or the former Georgian autonomies.
That's why a peaceful solution to the Karabakh conflict - an illusion. Armenians and Azerbaijanis are perfectly aware of this. They know that war is bound to be. They feel like as soon as possible. Because the expectation at all painful. To one side it is also fatal. And for another - fatal haste, but very tired of waiting.
Alexander Khramchikhin,
Deputy Director of the Institute
Political and Military Analysis
Military-Industrial Courier
№ 50 (366) of 22 December 2010
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Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan
Its all over - the azeris will now win for sure
Hayastan or Bust.Comment
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Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan
From 5:30 we can see our guys opereting the S300
Last edited by ArmeniaR1; 12-26-2010, 01:33 PM.Comment
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Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan
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Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan
Armenia has developed a multiply-launcher for an RPG
Publication date: 13:18 12/27/2010
Source: Oreanda-News
City: Yerevan
Itar-NEWS. OJSC GARNI-LEP (RA) has developed a new light multiply launchers to rocket-propelled grenades RPG-7 class.
Launcher, designated N-2, is in a stage production and offered for export by the Office of Defense Industry of the Ministry of Defense. On the launcher in two rows placed 12 classes of ammunition RPG-7. Installation can manually induced in the range ± 30 deg. in azimuth and from -5 to +50 deg. in elevation. Pomegranates are run using an electric remote control, individually or in one gulp. Time of full salvo of 12 rockets ordnance less than 10 seconds. Firing range of installation - 1300 m wrote Centre for Analysis of global arms trade.
Although the system was designed to produced DIC Armenia rocket-propelled grenades TB-1 with a thermobaric warhead, or high-explosive OG-7 launcher is compatible with the ammunition manufactured in other countries. Rocket TB-1 is equipped with a 4.4-kg thermobaric warhead with fuse ZP-02. When starting up from a grenade maximum deviation from vertical is 2.5 m, horizontal - 1 pm According to GARNI-LEP, the radius of the solid defeat for the grenade with a warhead TB-1 is 3,5 m.Comment
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Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan
*Armenia offers solid-state radar amplifiers for SA-3, SA-4 and SA-8 upgrades
The scientific-production enterprise Jamhar-DD, based in Ashtarak in Armenia, has developed solid-state low-noise broadband amplifiers for the radars of the Soviet-era 2K11M Krug-M (SA-4 ...
29-Nov-2010Comment
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Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan
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