Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[ArmeniaR1]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Thanks for te nice photos you made burjuin!

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

For now, I think time is on our side. We just have to wait until the oil runs out (peak oil 2012) and be prepared for a new war. Furthermore, the whole world (geopolitics, etc) changes every 5-10 years. It is hard predict how everything will look like in 10 years. Let's hope for an independent Kurdistan, a pro-Russian Georgia (a pro-Armenian Russia) and a stronger India, China and Iran.

Azeris peak oil is in 2012, but it drys up 2019, they might wait till then, to bolster their army as much as they can. But yeah, there's a good chance this decade a war will happen.
They still have their natural gas, which will dry up by 2100.

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Azeris peak oil is in 2012, but it drys up 2019, they might wait till then, to bolster their army as much as they can. But yeah, there's a good chance this decade a war will happen.
They still have their natural gas, which will dry up by 2100.

I do not think war will have anything to do peak oil etc.

Azeri reserves are around $24 Billion. I am quoting Sultan Aliev.
This would be verifiable from the international bodies.
By 2012 or 2019 this figure will multiply despite their corrupt government.

So in my mind money is “not an issue”.
They have well passed that requirement.

Also I do not believe time is on their side because they will simply have more money.
The finance required for its army has been available for a long time.

The reason they are hesitating is because,

1. They are not sure they will win the war and the consequences if they loose.
2. Politically they have been locked in to an agreement to find a solution without a war.
3. The punishment they will receive whether they win or loose the war.

These reasons will not go away and hopefully our side will make sure of that.

The only danger I can see is if Sultan Aliev takes a gamble ( he is a notorious gambler, mind you, a loosing one).
This could be because he is under internal political pressure/his position being in danger etc.

[Armanen]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I do not think war will have anything to do peak oil etc.

Azeri reserves are around $24 Billion. I am quoting Sultan Aliev.
This would be verifiable from the international bodies.
By 2012 or 2019 this figure will multiply despite their corrupt government.

So in my mind money is “not an issue”.
They have well passed that requirement.

Also I do not believe time is on their side because they will simply have more money.
The finance required for its army has been available for a long time.

The reason they are hesitating is because,

1. They are not sure they will win the war and the consequences if they loose.
2. Politically they have been locked in to an agreement to find a solution without a war.
3. The punishment they will receive whether they win or loose the war.

These reasons will not go away and hopefully our side will make sure of that.

The only danger I can see is if Sultan Aliev takes a gamble ( he is a notorious gambler, mind you, a loosing one).
This could be because he is under internal political pressure/his position being in danger etc.

I agree with you but I'd like to add that the time factor favoring them, at least when I think of it, is the demographic sub factor within. Although they have migration issues just as Armenia and georgia do, they have a higher birthrate than both.

It may very well work out Armenia's favor should the little sultan take a gamble. And as you correctly pointed out, 20+ years of anti Armenian propaganda is going to result in a boiling point when the azeri public demands action. I expect it to arrive within this decade.

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/polit...re_territories

Commandos: should Karabakh war resume, Armenia would conquer more territories

January 27, 2011 - 15:06 AMT 11:06 GMTPanARMENIAN.Net - Should Karabakh war resume,
Armenia could suffer losses at the initial stage. Yet the equilibrium would soon be restored, with
Armenian side returning territories lost and conquering more of them, according
to the hero of Karabakh war, major general Arkady Ter-Tadevosyan (Commandos).

As he told a news conference in Yerevan, Azerbaijan is currently strong,
yet the Armenian army has good knowledge of military activities strategy in Karabakh conflict zone.

Arkady Ter-Tadevosyan went on to speak about the issues in the Armenian army,
noting that, society problems naturally influence the situation in the army.
In conclusion, Commandos urged for addressing the current issues in the armed forces of Armenia.

I agree 100%.....Also President Sarkisian would declare NKR recognized and the Armenia's military would get involved. Time is not on our side in this frozen conflict and unfortunently a war, in all reality, is to Armenia's advantage.
The results would mean more liberated lands and a much better stratigic position.

[ninetoyadome]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I agree 100%.....Also President Sarkisian would declare NKR recognized and the Armenia's military would get involved. Time is not on our side in this frozen conflict and unfortunently a war, in all reality, is to Armenia's advantage.
The results would mean more liberated lands and a much better stratigic position.

But it would also lead to the deaths of hundred's if not thousands of innocent young soldiers. i was looking at some people who fought in the first war, look at these guys:
http://www.mayrhayastan.am/herosner/babalyan1azat.html - 23 years old
http://www.mayrhayastan.am/herosner/babalyan3azat.html - 23 years old
http://www.mayrhayastan.am/herosner/gabuzyanazat.html - 21 years old
http://www.mayrhayastan.am/herosner/gabrielyanazat.html - 20 years old
http://www.mayrhayastan.am/herosner/...lyan2azat.html - 16 years old
http://www.mayrhayastan.am/herosner/...lyan1azat.html - 21 years old
http://www.mayrhayastan.am/herosner/Dadamyanazat.html - 21 years old
http://www.mayrhayastan.am/herosner/Nazaryanazat.html - 17 years old

there are more young kids who died defending there motherland, I don't want to see more innocent young kids lose there lives. I visited the cemetery for the war heroes and it was depressing. You know how Armenian cemeteries are with the picture of the deceased on the tombstone. Imagine looking at these young heroes who didnt have the chance to live there lives because they were killed. Same will happen to the present day soldiers. Yes we will win but we will lose a lot of soldiers and a lot of civilians since we know azeris are cowards and will bombard cities like they did with Stepanakert in the first war. War is not the solution to anything. the azeris know this also, thats why they havent attacked, that and they know this will be an economic disaster for them. the best solution is through a peaceful means.

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

But it would also lead to the deaths of hundred's if not thousands of innocent young soldiers. i was looking at some people who fought in the first war, look at these guys:


there are more young kids who died defending there motherland, I don't want to see more innocent young kids lose there lives. I visited the cemetery for the war heroes and it was depressing. You know how Armenian cemeteries are with the picture of the deceased on the tombstone. Imagine looking at these young heroes who didnt have the chance to live there lives because they were killed. Same will happen to the present day soldiers. Yes we will win but we will lose a lot of soldiers and a lot of civilians since we know azeris are cowards and will bombard cities like they did with Stepanakert in the first war. War is not the solution to anything. the azeris know this also, thats why they havent attacked, that and they know this will be an economic disaster for them. the best solution is through a peaceful means.

No need to bring up the pictures of teenagers kIA, we know. Winter of 92 was the worst and just in one incident a platoon of teenage kids got lost and froze to death.

No one want war and this time around the casualties will potentually be much higher....I am not advocating war, but with our warmongering neighbor who could eventually attack maybe we should choose the time and place with suprise (last thing they will expect).
Of course we won't do that, it appears our strategy is defensive and we will wait until attacked even though all attempts for a peaceful solution have been tried since 1994.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

there are more young kids who died defending there motherland, I don't want to see more innocent young kids lose there lives. I visited the cemetery for the war heroes and it was depressing. You know how Armenian cemeteries are with the picture of the deceased on the tombstone. Imagine looking at these young heroes who didnt have the chance to live there lives because they were killed. Same will happen to the present day soldiers. Yes we will win but we will lose a lot of soldiers and a lot of civilians since we know azeris are cowards and will bombard cities like they did with Stepanakert in the first war. War is not the solution to anything. the azeris know this also, thats why they havent attacked, that and they know this will be an economic disaster for them. the best solution is through a peaceful means.

Id rather die in battlefield defending the motherland than in some foreign country getting struck by bus or chocking on My food cuz i take all for granted
These guys are part of our history and our soil now, if anything i Envy them

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Photos of the Armenian Army:

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I agree 100%.....Also President Sarkisian would declare NKR recognized and the Armenia's military would get involved. Time is not on our side in this frozen conflict and unfortunently a war, in all reality, is to Armenia's advantage. The results would mean more liberated lands and a much better stratigic position.

I think time is irrelevant.

In a funny way demographics will be the least of an issue during a war because there would be a general call-up
and “all” resources put at the disposal of the war effort.

What matters is what position we will be in and what capabilities we will have to thwart any mischief by the Azeri.

A war could only be “turned to our advantage” if the Azeris started it.

Our (government’s) objective should be to look (study ) what issues will put us at a disadvantage
(due to time ) and try and correct them.

One of the most frequently cited concerns is demographics.
Core reasons are MIGRATION and BIRTH RATE.

Each one has its own reasons, driven by MISTAKEN POLICIES both by government and society.

The situation will only stabilize and reverse if these mistaken policies are reconsidered and actioned upon.

It is the responsibility of the government to initiate action on both fronts since these are interrelated
with the economy and its management being the primary factor.