Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

This might be Baku's way of letting out the information (little by little)concerning the operations in Martakert (The one Armenian brought to our attention).

If Baku was honest, they would have reported that 20,000 hectres of land had been caputured by Armenian forces anf hundreds of Azeri soldiers have been killed.

...expect more of these articles in the near future as Baku tries to mask the loss through peice-meal and dishonest reporting.

Actually, this article seemed very normal to me. Fact is that since the ceasefire at the Armenian/NKR-Azeri border, there are sporadic clashes that happen. And every now and then, we kill a baboon and they kill an Armenian. Judging from the pattern of killings i've read over the past few months, we kill them more than they kill us. The baboon news agency today.az reports death of baboons quite frequently with name, birthdate, native city and year drafted information.

[crusader1492]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Actually, this article seemed very normal to me. Fact is that since the ceasefire at the Armenian/NKR-Azeri border, there are sporadic clashes that happen. And every now and then, we kill a baboon and they kill an Armenian. Judging from the pattern of killings i've read over the past few months, we kill them more than they kill us. The baboon news agency today.az reports death of baboons quite frequently with name, birthdate, native city and year drafted information.

Understood...but this article says "since July". The numbers quoted in the Azeri disinformation media is quite high (more than normal), which leads me to believe they are trying to cover somthing up.

If "hundreds" of Azeris were killed in the offensive Armenian was talking about, it may be that the Azeri government will piece-meal the deaths, over time, with these bogus articles in order to make the loss more palletable for the Azeri masses. This, along with disinformation that "more Armenians were killed than Azeris", also helps the Azeri government to save face.

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

WHAT LAVROV MEANT

Sergei Lavrov said that unlike Georgia, other ex-Soviet states involved in territorial disputes do not plan to use military force to resolve them.

This is my warning: Do not plan to use force to resolve a conflict.

"There can be no parallels here,"

You should not use force so that there will be no parallels.

Moscow said its counterattack following Georgia’s offensive to retake South Ossetia in early August and the subsequent recognition of the two breakaway regions’ independence were its moral duty and necessary to protect them from possible new acts of aggression.

In case Azeris attack Nagorno-Karabagh, It will be Moscow's moral duty to recognize the breakaway region's independence and ensure their protection against further aggression.

"Russia will actively promote a peaceful solution to all the conflicts in the CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States] in line with international law and UN Charter principles,"

We are quite happy with the present status quo in NK. All that we want is endless talks (bla-bla-bla). Azeris should not dare attacking, this is my second warning

"We will pursue our mediation in peace talks, including over Transnistria and Nagorno Karabakh."

During the peace talks, we will tell everybody what each one should do...and we will say it very clearly.

"None of the sides engaged in the Nagorno Karabakh and Transnistria talks have nurtured plans to violate international law, existing agreements, the settlement format and to bomb civilians and peacekeepers,"

So far, everybody is being a good boy. This is my third and final warning: Don't even think of violating international law and/or bomb civilians or peacekeepers.

[Anoush]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Some people also always bring up 1921 as a case against Russia. Besides the fact that what happened then was not the work of Russia (it was Bolshevism and ethnic Russian suffered most under Bolshevism), signs that the Armenian Republic was doomed was very clear. Moscow had on its hand a nation that was utterly worthless and hopeless. Other than several thousand poorly equipped soldiers, no significant military force existed in Armenia; no economy whatsoever existed in Armenia; the population in Armenia was severely impoverished; there was less than a million inhabitants in the entire country, half of whom were refugees from Western Armenia; chronic disease and starvation was rampant throughout the country; landlocked; tiny; friendless; Armenia had no natural wealth...

It was xxxxing obvious the country would not last long with those qualifications, especially in the Caucasus.

Had I been one of the Bolshevik officials at the time trying to win over Turkey (and Azerbaijan) I would have also sacrificed Armenia without even giving it much thought. It was a smart move on the part of the Bolsheviks, but it backfired on them when Ataturk made a deal with western powers instead. If one observed Armenia's geopolitical and socioeconomic situation prior to 1921, it would have been very obvious that Armenia as a nation was utterly worthless, thus disposable.

Compared to the Armenia of 1921, today's Armenia is a superpower. Unlike in 1921, Armenia today has a very capable military. Unlike in 1921, Armenia today has managed to defeat its enemies both on the battlefield and in international diplomacy. Unlike in 1921, Armenia today plays a pivotal role in regional politics. Unlike in 1921, Armenia today plays a significant role in Russian politics. Unlike in 1921, Armenia today does have an economy. Unlike 19921, Armenia today has a signification support base in the diaspora. Unlike 1921, Armenia today does have international friends. Geopolitical conditions that existed in 1921 do not exits today.

So, let's stop comparing what happened to Armenia back in 1921 with what is occurring today. Anyway, I'm am just trying to point out our severe political immaturity.

Armenian, I understand what you are trying to say or where you're coming from; however I would like to make a justifiable observation here that yes thank goodness today's Armenia is no comparison whatsoever from the times of 1921. But let's not forget the severe times of those days: Armenia practically lost more than 3/4'ths of their people, mostly the western Armenians were practically parished, out of 3,5 million Armenians only 800,000 survived if that much, Eastern Armenians together with the added refugees who survived the Genocide consisted of 800,000 souls only. Armenia right after the Genocide in May 28, 1918 fought with their last breath against a much larger country; Turkey, and they won. It was a miracle that they did. But of course after all that, it is understandable that Armenia was very weak and impoverished. I am pretty sure you know all that already; but nonetheless I wanted to remind and reiterate the facts.

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

A TALE OF TWO DEFENSE BUDGETS: ARMENIA vs AZERBAIJAN

"Camouflage face-painted Azerbaijani special forces showing off their Israeli-made TAVOR assault rifles, communication gear, "cool gloves" and other goodies during a military parade in Baku.

Russian made GAZ-3308 SADKO 4x4 trucks carrying troops during a military parade inYerevan.

What's in defense budget?

The Azeri economy has been doing well for the last few years since they started exporting significant quantities of oil. The fact that the barrel of oil reached record levels did not hurt either. Baku has cash, and it is spending it. Vast sums are being used to re-equip and modernize the Azeri army which took a severe beating during the early nineties by the Armenian side.

Lavish sums are being spend by the Baku rulers. The latest estimates put their defense budget for 2008 at around 1.2 billion US dollars with Aliev claiming that it will even reach $2 billion.

In comparison, the defense budget of the Republic of Armenia is only a fraction of that. Most Analysts agree of a figure between 200 and 300 million US dollars.

At this rate, one would naturally expect that the Azerbaijan army wil,l in a short few years, become far stronger than the combined forces of Armenia and Karabagh.

True, but....not quite so.

In the real world, it's not only what you spend - but also, how you spend.

The above 2 photos are a perfect illustration of what I mean.

The living standards of the Azeri population is not high at all. The corrupt and unpopular rulers at Baku were cash-starved up to very recent times. Now that they are having money in their coffers, they can be considered as "nouveau rich"....and yes, that comes with "nouveau riche" mentality and manners of spending.

Lets have a close look at those Azeri soldiers parading. They remind me of the Western equipped and trained Georgian soldiers parading in Tbilissi.
The equipment they are carrying is indeed of top quality, but will it give them an advantage?
They have paid commercial prices to acquire them. Those Israeli made TAVOR rifles must be have cost them 2- 3 thousand Dollars apiece. Compare that with a trusty Kalashnikov that basically does the same job for around $500 only...."nouveau riche" behavior.

While the Azeris are re-equipping, the Armenian side is doing the same with a much tighter budget. I can't find in our equipment anything that can be qualified as "overkill", "a bit too much", "for show-off", "un-necessary", "gold-plated" or even "nice looking". Everything I see has a job to do at the minimum expense possible.

While Azerbaijan is paying market prices to acquire equipment from Israel, Turkey, Ukraine and elsewhere, we are buying the majority of our weapons at a discounted rate (friendly prices) from Russia. The choice of types of weaponry are also being made wisely.

Look at the recently acquired GAZ-3308 trucks in the photo above. Nothing special about them. But, they are simple, robust, reliable and easy to repair workhorses that will carry troops, ammunition, supplies. They will also bring back the wounded, prisoners and the war trophies. How much did we pay for these carry all 4x4? around $17,000 per vehicle at the friendly Russian rates.

To show you more about the Azeri way of spending.
Last year they received from Ukraine a total of 14 Mig-29 fighters. They paid huge sums for the airplanes and their refurbishment (which was done in Ukrainian facilities). To do what? These sleek jets will look good in military parades and fly-overs, but they were designed as air defense fighters. What good are they in the skies over Karabagh. Armenia does not have fighters or true bombers. The Armenian air force is not equipped to launch bombing raids against the Azeri heartland. All we have is a squadron (about 15) Su-25 strike planes that are going to support our troops at low level on the battlefield. The Mig-29 has limited use against those low flying planes which hare hard to detect by the horizon limited Azeri radars (no AWACS planes available). Plus, the Armenian anti-air defenses will be there to give a tough time to any Azeri fighter who might have located a Su-25 and is planning to attack it. These Mig-29s will not excel in the bombing field either. They are too fast and too fragile to be used as strike aircraft( like the Su-25) and, being early models, they are not able to use precision guided bombs for surgical strikes. All they can deliver in an attack is dumb bombs and unguided rockets against large targets. Unfortunately, they can cause heavy damage in Stapanagerd...

Furthermore, 2 of these Migs have already crashed during separate training flights....because the sub-par refurbishment of the jets was done by Ukrainian companies, not by the Mig factory........Money down the drain.

They have also re-activated the old but still capable massive S-200 (SA-5) air defense missile complexes…as if we had high flying strategic bombers.

In contrast, we have no sleek Mach-2 plus airplanes. We would love to have some for protection against bombing runs by Azeri fighter-bombers. But buying and operating them is beyond the means of our tiny budget. Instead, we are relying on the best air defense systems in the Caucasus (operated jointly with the Russian forces in Armenia) and the squadron of Mig-29s based in Erebuni.

Azerbaijan air force Mig-29 fighters over Baku

The massive S-200 (SA-5) anti-startegic bomber surface-air missile

In future posts, I will compare forces and equipment in all fields (air, armor, artillery, air defense etc.)

Having demonstrated some of the foolish ways of them spending money for weaponry, I also would like to point out that they have also acquired arms that are very dangerous to us. In some of my future posts, I will also post details of those I consider the most dangerous. Also, I will also point out to our strong points and so on.

But, I am talking “military budget” now, and I must point out that part of Aliyev’s defense budget is going into their navy. Details of the budget breakdown are not available, I would guess that around 10% of it is spent on their sea-forces which present no danger to the mountains of Karabagh.

Patrol boats of the Azeri navy

To wrap up. Their high military budget does not alarm me very much for the time being. I will be more concerned if they keep up spending that way for a long while….which begs the following questions:
Is the Azeri economy going to continue to expand at the current rate?
Is the price of oil going to be as high as it has been?
Are they going to be able to safely export their oil in the future?
Etc.etc.

As a footnote. Wars are not won by accountants and purchase officiers. They are won by soldiers. On the battlefield, motivation, readiness for sacrifice, tactics, training, morale and a pinch of tradition carry more value than sheer brute arsenal.

It is worth noting the similarities between the Azeri army and the Georgians. Tbilissi’s troops were very well equipped and had received ample training from Western countries. They went into battle with high spirits….at the first sign of trouble they ran like rabbits all the way to their capital.

I can see the same thing happening if Baku dares to take Nagorno Karabagh by force.

History does repeat itself.

[crusader1492]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

A TALE OF TWO DEFENSE BUDGETS: ARMENIA vs AZERBAIJAN

"Camouflage face-painted Azerbaijani special forces showing off their Israeli-made TAVOR assault rifles, communication gear, "cool gloves" and other goodies during a military parade in Baku.

Great post Zoravar.

I also noticed that besides the fancy Israeli 5.56 rifles, the make-up wearing Azeri soldiers are wearing US issue battle dress uniforms.

US - Israel...am I seeing a trend here?

Anyway, if you put big red shoes on these guys, they could pass for Ronald McDonald.

[Anoush]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Great post Zoravar.

I also noticed that besides the fancy Israeli 5.56 rifles, the make-up wearing Azeri soldiers are wearing US issue battle dress uniforms.

US - Israel...am I seeing a trend here?

Anyway, if you put big red shoes on these guys, they could pass for Ronald McDonald.

Yes thanks much Zoravar. It's very informative for us and you did a very good job by letting us know how foolishly they're spending on arms vs. ours who are more economical and yet almost as good or somewhat close to theirs. In here I'd like to write an Arabic saying that I have heard from my elders in regards to the then uneducated Arabs: "tor sallemoo el motor" and this applies exactly to the uneducated dumbell azeris which means; "the bull that has acquired the motorcar". But unfortunately in the course of stupidly flying off over our lands and shooting left and right, it could do us a good deal of damage, that's what I'm afraid and concerned about. But we must take heart as our strategic savvy is far better than their stupid people.

Dear Crusader; of course there is a trend between, US - Israel, what else is new?

[crusader1492]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Dear Crusader; of course there is a trend between, US - Israel, what else is new?

I know Anoush. I was being sarcastic

[jgk3]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

nice posts zoravar, thank you.

[D3ADSY]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTzMtfk3v80

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-STkaDIi8Y

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UCXQz3Fjuo

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvlYT9shJcs

A 4 part series, I am posting it because it includes footage shot of the frontlines from both sides. I think it was part 1 that shows the Azeri side and part 4 that shows the Armenian side. Ignore the bs and bias, I can't find any other video that shows this kind of footage of the frontlines.