Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Artsakh war hero Samvel Babayan has re-surfaced.
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Ex-Karabakh Army Chief Against Major Concessions To Azerbaijan

07.05.2009
Tatevik Lazarian

Samvel Babayan, a former military leader of Nagorno-Karabakh, on Thursday spoke out against the existing international plan to end the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and claimed that renewed war with Azerbaijan is a real possibility.
He specifically reaffirmed his opposition to the return of most of the Azerbaijani districts around Karabakh that were occupied by Karabakh Armenian forces during the 1991-1994 war. Babayan commanded those forces at the time and served as the disputed region’s defense minister until 1999.

“Assume we return [those territories,]” he said. “What will we get in return? Will there be peace? I don’t think so.”

“We have spent the past millennium ceding territories,” added the once powerful general. “Has that made any difference? The land belongs to those who live there. Period.”

The most recent framework peace accord put forward by international mediators envisages that the return of at least six of the seven Armenian-occupied districts would be followed by a referendum in which Karabakh’s predominantly Armenian population would determine the region’s status. The U.S., Russian and French mediators hope that Armenia and Azerbaijan will soon sing up to the plan.

However, Babayan, who has been based in Yerevan since 2005, predicted that the Karabakh peace process will remain deadlocked. “In my opinion, Azerbaijan is dragging out negotiations to again go to war,” he told journalists during a presentation of his newly published memoirs of the Karabakh war.

“We always say that Azerbaijan is not yet ready for war,” said Babayan. “But I disagree with that. It is ready, but it may lose. They are now trying to ensure that they will succeed by 100 percent.”

“It is incumbent on our political and military leaders not to let the enemy think that it can succeed,” he added.

http://www.armenialiberty.org/content/article/1623668.html

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Was Babayan the “symbol”?


Former commander of the NKR defense army Samvel Babayan truly believes that the NKR has ceased to be a military-political unit and factor in the region and is out of the peace talks only after it was decided to take Samvel Babayan out of the game back in 1999.

Was Babayan left out of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks with the decision by Robert Kocharyan? Does this mean that Babayan is accusing Kocharyan? In response to that Babayan said:

"I repeat: we haven't had any problems with Robert Kocharyan. If we take a look back, we will see that in 1999, Robert Kocharyan was in a worse situation than me. Robert Kocharyan couldn't have done anything back then."

Then who do you mean?

"Do you want me to spell out names? Just take a look at the list of securtiy council officials on December 15, 1999 and you will see the names. There are also current opposition members who had set the issue to remove Samvel Babayan so they could have power. Now they are standing on the side and screaming. There were 15 people, but you know better than I do how Robert Kocharyan was."

Samvel Babayan also touched upon concessions in the NKR conflict. He stated that the people of Karabakh will not agree to any concession and that the conflict can't be resolved without the consent of the people of Karabakh. Samvel Babayan claimed that the liberated territories can't be given because there is more wealth there than the oil in the Caspian basin.

Samvel Babayan doesn't consider the Sargsyan-Aliev meeting pivotal because all talks are nonsensical as long as Aliev hasn't come to grips with the fact that Karabakh cannot be part of Azerbaijan.

Babayan also stated that Artsakh is a part of Armenia and even if the Armenian people concede Karabakh and the liberated lands, there will be no right to go on living.

As for Turkish-Armenian relations, Samvel Babayan believes that Turkey will put an end to the negotiations and the proclamation signed in Switzerland a day before the genocide commemoration was not by chance. According to the former Karabakh army commander, that was to the benefit of Turkey because it did not want to hear the word genocide pronounced.

http://www.a1plus.am/en/politics/2009/05/7/samvel-babayan

[Pazooki]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Finally some news about Artsakh.

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I don't know how much of this is true but this does not look good. Maybe we should consider more concessions to Turkey so that the USA becomes pleased .
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Obama Seeks 38% Cut in Aid to Armenia
Proposes Breaking Military Aid Parity Agreement in Favor of Azerbaijan

WASHINGTON—Despite a 9 percent increase in overall foreign aid spending, President Barack Obama today called for a 38 percent cut in aid to Armenia, a 20 percent increase in aid to Azerbaijan, and the abandonment of the longstanding Armenia-Azerbaijan military aid parity agreement in favor of Baku, reported the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA).

These figures, released today as part of the President’s Fiscal Year (FY) 2010 budget, represent a sharp departure from the President’s campaign commitments to maintain U.S. assistance to Armenia and to foster its growth and development through aid and trade. In January of 2008 and again only days before the November election, the President said he would “help foster Armenia’s growth and development through expanded trade and targeted aid,” adding that he will also, “strengthen the commercial, political, military, developmental, and cultural relationships between the U.S. and Armenian governments.”

“President Obama, despite his promise to maintain U.S. assistance to Armenia and his campaign commitment to help foster Armenia’s growth and development, has called for a thirty-eight percent cut in aid to Armenia,” said Aram Hamparian, executive director of the ANCA. “His proposal to sharply reduce vitally needed assistance to Armenia, even as he is increasing overall foreign aid spending, is all the more disappointing in light of the urgent economic challenges facing Armenia.”

President Obama’s budget calls for $30 million in U.S. aid to Armenia, down 38 percent from the FY09 allocation of $48 million. Under his proposal, funding for Azerbaijan would increase 20 percent from $18.5 million to $22.12 million. The complete international affairs budget proposed by the White House is $53,872,901.

In Foreign Military Finance spending, President Obama has requested $4 million for Azerbaijan and only $3 million for Armenia, while funds for International Military Education and Training (IMET) represent an even starker break in the parity agreement struck between Congress and the White House in 2001, with $900,000 being proposed for Azerbaijan and $450,000 for Armenia.

The Foreign Operations Subcommittees of the House and Senate Appropriation Committees will now review the President’s budget and each draft their own versions of the FY 2010 foreign assistance bill.

http://www.hairenik.com/weekly/2009/05/07/obama-seeks-38-cut-in-aid-to-armenia/

[ninetoyadome]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I don't know how much of this is true but this does not look good. Maybe we should consider more concessions to Turkey so that the USA becomes pleased .
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Obama Seeks 38% Cut in Aid to Armenia
Proposes Breaking Military Aid Parity Agreement in Favor of Azerbaijan

WASHINGTON—Despite a 9 percent increase in overall foreign aid spending, President Barack Obama today called for a 38 percent cut in aid to Armenia, a 20 percent increase in aid to Azerbaijan, and the abandonment of the longstanding Armenia-Azerbaijan military aid parity agreement in favor of Baku, reported the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA).

These figures, released today as part of the President’s Fiscal Year (FY) 2010 budget, represent a sharp departure from the President’s campaign commitments to maintain U.S. assistance to Armenia and to foster its growth and development through aid and trade. In January of 2008 and again only days before the November election, the President said he would “help foster Armenia’s growth and development through expanded trade and targeted aid,” adding that he will also, “strengthen the commercial, political, military, developmental, and cultural relationships between the U.S. and Armenian governments.”

“President Obama, despite his promise to maintain U.S. assistance to Armenia and his campaign commitment to help foster Armenia’s growth and development, has called for a thirty-eight percent cut in aid to Armenia,” said Aram Hamparian, executive director of the ANCA. “His proposal to sharply reduce vitally needed assistance to Armenia, even as he is increasing overall foreign aid spending, is all the more disappointing in light of the urgent economic challenges facing Armenia.”

President Obama’s budget calls for $30 million in U.S. aid to Armenia, down 38 percent from the FY09 allocation of $48 million. Under his proposal, funding for Azerbaijan would increase 20 percent from $18.5 million to $22.12 million. The complete international affairs budget proposed by the White House is $53,872,901.

In Foreign Military Finance spending, President Obama has requested $4 million for Azerbaijan and only $3 million for Armenia, while funds for International Military Education and Training (IMET) represent an even starker break in the parity agreement struck between Congress and the White House in 2001, with $900,000 being proposed for Azerbaijan and $450,000 for Armenia.

The Foreign Operations Subcommittees of the House and Senate Appropriation Committees will now review the President’s budget and each draft their own versions of the FY 2010 foreign assistance bill.

http://www.hairenik.com/weekly/2009/...id-to-armenia/

I doubt that this is true because:
1.) While running for President and after being elected he has said on numerous occasions, we need to send more aid to Armenia and decrease aid to azerbaijan.
2.) i dont think he'll do something like this after he lied about calling the Armenian Genocide a genocide.

i say we wait to see if this is accurate or not. I'm waiting for PanArmenian to post it.

[hrai]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I doubt that this is true because:
1.) While running for President and after being elected he has said on numerous occasions, we need to send more aid to Armenia and decrease aid to azerbaijan.
2.) i dont think he'll do something like this after he lied about calling the Armenian Genocide a genocide.

i say we wait to see if this is accurate or not. I'm waiting for PanArmenian to post it.

So your logic is that the first lie, Genocide Recognition, means that the second lie, Scrapping Aid Parity, is false?

My logic says that if he can lie about Genocide Recognition, then everything he says is liable to be a lie.

[ninetoyadome]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

So your logic is that the first lie, Genocide Recognition, means that the second lie, Scrapping Aid Parity, is false?

My logic says that if he can lie about Genocide Recognition, then everything he says is liable to be a lie.

Do you really think hes that two-faced? We all knew he wasnt going to call the Armenian Genocide a genocide. Do you think he'll turn on the Armenian people like this? I dont think he did it because he won't want to push Armenia further towards Russia.

[ninetoyadome]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Well there it is on PanArmenian

U.S. Administration cuts aid to Armenia, breaks military parity
08.05.2009 11:30 GMT+04:00
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Just two weeks after President Barack Obama failed to uphold his campaign promise to squarely reaffirm the historical fact of the Armenian Genocide, the president, in his Fiscal Year (FY) 2010 International Affairs budget request, broke another promise by cutting aid to Armenia, reported the Armenian Assembly of America (Assembly). The budget request also increased aid to Azerbaijan and overturned long-standing Congressional policy with respect to military parity between Armenian and Azerbaijan.

"This budget is fundamentally flawed," said Bryan Ardouny, Assembly Executive Director. "It is incomprehensible that a country which already has billions of dollars in oil and gas revenue would receive an increase in U.S. funding while the neighbor it blockades sees its funding decrease. This budget request not only undercuts what Congress has appropriated, but does not help strengthen stability in the South Caucasus," added Ardouny. "In addition, this does not send the right message to Armenia, an ally whose relationship with the U.S. was described this week by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as 'a very lasting and durable one,'" concluded Ardouny.

On the campaign trail in 2008, then-Senator Obama issued a statement which read:

As President, I will maintain our assistance to Armenia, which has been a reliable partner in the fight against terrorism and extremism. I will promote Armenian security by seeking an end to the Turkish and Azerbaijani blockades, and by working for a lasting and durable settlement of the Nagorno Karabagh conflict that is agreeable to all parties, and based upon America's founding commitment to the principles of democracy and self determination. And my Administration will help foster Armenia's growth and development through expanded trade and targeted aid, and by strengthening the commercial, political, military, developmental, and cultural relationships between the U.S. and Armenian governments.

The proposed FY 2010 budget cut funding to Armenia, recommending $30 million in Economic Assistance, a decrease from FY 2009 level of $48 million. Additionally, the budget did not include funding for Nagorno Karabakh, while in FY 2009 Congress approved $8 million.

The Administration's FY 2010 funding proposal for Foreign Military Financing (FMF) calls for $4 million for Azerbaijan and only $3 million for Armenia. The proposed budget also suggests $900,000 for Azerbaijan versus $450,000 for Armenia in International Military Education and Training (IMET) assistance.

Ardouny stated that the Assembly will work with its friends in Congress to reverse this proposal on all levels. In previous years, the combined effort of the Assembly and the Armenian-American community has resulted in continuous security aid parity.

Apparently Obama is a two faced snake but hopefully congress will reverse this idiotic proposal which will give a country, whos military budget is 2 billion, more money than a country whos military budget is 300 million.

[Gavur]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Panarmenian can be biased

[hrai]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Do you really think hes that two-faced? We all knew he wasnt going to call the Armenian Genocide a genocide. Do you think he'll turn on the Armenian people like this? I dont think he did it because he won't want to push Armenia further towards Russia.

He's a politician, his snout's as deep in the trough as the rest of them. People seem to have been blinded to a degree by his color but he's the same as the rest.

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

More details of Artsakh hero Samvel Babayan's thoughts and strategies.
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Samvel Babayan: “We must do everything to avoid a war”
Legendary commander talks about May 9 celebrations, the possibility of a new war, and the policy of repopulating the liberated territories


Yerevan - According to Nagorno-Karabakh's former defense minister and army commander Samvel Babayan, May 9 is not only the celebration of the liberation of Shushi but also the day a ceasefire was established. In 1992, between May 7 and 9 Armenian forces moving toward Lachin and led by Commander Babayan liberated the ancient Armenia fortress city of Shushi. Two years later, on May 9, 1994, Azerbaijan signed the ceasefire document.

"For me, the signed ceasefire document is more important. We have already had 15 years of peace and God willing, that peace will be eternal. The liberation of Shushi was one of the first achievements that elevated the Armenian spirit. May 9 is also celebrated in Nagorno-Karabakh as Army Day and for the victory of the Great War, 1941-1945 [World War II]," said Mr. Babayan.

On May 9, 1994, Azerbaijan's Defense Minister Mammadrafi Mammadov, the next day Armenia's Defense Minister Serge Sargsian and on May 11 the Commander of Nagorno Karabakh's Defense Forces Samvel Babayan addressed a letter to the foreign and defense ministers of Russia, stating that late on May 10, early May 11 the conflicting sides had agreed to lay down their weapons.

On February 23, 2001, the late Azerbaijani President Haydar Aliev said in the Azerbaijani parliament: "I want to repeat once again, that the May ceasefire was a very important step and we moved in that direction consciously. Even though the issue has not been resolved, the ceasefire was necessary. Unfortunately, many have forgotten the war, they now live in comfort. Unfortunately they have forgotten the war."
Deterring Baku

Samvel Babayan is one of the few people who believe that the possibility of the war starting again is real. He is also convinced that Azerbaijan is ready for a new war, but there is one "however."

"Azerbaijan is prolonging the resolution of the conflict to once again go to war. I do not agree with that opinion that Azerbaijan is not yet ready for war. Azerbaijan is ready for war, but there is one problem: what if it loses? Azerbaijan is getting ready for that, to make 100 percent sure that it will win the next war. Because if a new war begins, it will lose more territories and it will no longer have anything to say in the negotiations. It is for this reason that Azerbaijan is avoiding a war and not because its army isn't ready," Mr. Babayan said.

The former commander is also convinced that even if a war begins, the Armenian army will win, but it is important to understand at what price. "We have to do everything to avoid a war. Our military leadership must not allow the adversary to become emboldened, or to think that in case of war they can register even the smallest success," he said.
After liberation

Seventeen years have already passed since the liberation of Shushi; however the city's population continues to be around 3,000, the same as it was in the mid-1990s. The ceasefire has been in place now for 15 years, yet just as in the liberated territories, in Nagorno-Karabakh resettlement has not taken place. If in the mid-1990s almost 13,000 people lived in the liberated territories, today only 7,000 do.

"In my opinion the authorities are not taking steps in that direction. The authorities are obligated to develop a policy to have those territories resettled; not by lightly renovating burnt-out homes and settling people there with no electricity, gas, water and then complain that people aren't going there. They must create conditions for people that are normal for living. Because a resettlement policy is not in place, the authorities don't believe that they will be able to keep those territories," concluded Mr. Babayan.

Referring to the process of conflict resolution, Mr. Babayan blamed the former authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh for Stepanakert being left out of the negotiation process.

"The issue will be resolved in Stepanakert, only in Stepanakert. When the time comes that the people of Karabakh feel danger, they will not submit to anything and will rebel. The Armenian nation does not have a de Gaul to persuade the people Karabakh of that which they have known for a long time. Yes, the conflict must be resolved by mutual concessions but those concessions must have a limit," he said.

The former commander doesn't see the Karabakh conflict resolution coming anytime soon. "Any political power that is conducting the negotiations has to understand whether it is able to carry that burden (concessions) or not. In today's political field, there isn't that person who will agree to those concessions that are being talked about today."

Mr. Babayan disagrees with the view that after mutual concessions, when peace has been established and the borders have been opened, only then will the economy of Armenia flourish.

"The issue isn't Karabakh and the 100,000 people who live there. The land belongs to he who lives on that soil. Karabakh has been a part of Armenia, and will be a part of Armenia. Even if they hang a nuclear bomb around the neck of the Armenian people, if we concede Karabakh, then we will no longer have the right to live as a people every again," said Mr. Babayan and concluded with the words of Monte Melkonian, another legendary commander of the Karabakh war: "If we lose Karabakh, then we will turn the final page in Armenian history."

http://www.reporter.am/go/article/2009-05-08-samvel-babayan-we-must-do-everything-to-avoid-a-war