Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Vrej1915]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Պայթյուն եւ փլուզում «Էլեկտրոն» գործարանում. կա 2 զոհ
Երեւանի Շարուրի 37 հասցեում գտնվող «էլեկտրոն» գործարանում այսօր տեղի ունեցած պայթյունի եւ փլուզման հետեւանքով երկու մարդ է զոհվել:

http://www.armenialiberty.org/content/article/24597133.html

Ռուզաննա Ստեփանյան
29.05.2012
Զոհվածներն են 67-ամյա Ջանիբեկ Մարտիրոսյանը ու 64-ամյա Ազիզբեկ Բարսամյանը:

Արտակարգ իրավիճակների նախարարության փոխանցմամբ, Ջանիբեկ Մարտիրոսյանը ծանր վիճակում տեղափոխվել է «Էրեբունի» բժշկական կենտրոն, որտեղ ավելի ուշ մահացել է: Իսկ Ազիզբեկ Բարսամյանի դին փրկարարները դուրս են բերել փլատակների տակից:

Եռահարկ շինության ձախ հատվածը փլուզվել էր, ինչից կարելի է ենթադրել, որ հուժկու պայթյուն է տեղի ունեցել: Պայթյունի պատճառները, ըստ դեպքի վայր ժամանակ Արտակարգ իրավիճակների նախարար Արմեն Երիցյանի, դեռեւս պարզ չեն:

Նախարարի փոխանցմամբ, զոհվածներից մեկը գործարանի արտադրամասի պետն է եղել, մյուսը` տեղակալը:

«Այստեղ եղել է պայթյուն: Դուք տեսնում եք, որ շենքի որոշ մասը փլուզվել է: Փրկարարներին հաջողվեց մեկ անձի հանել փլատակների տակից, տեղափոխել հիվանդանոց, բայց 5 րոպե առաջ ինֆորմացիա ստացանք, որ մահացել է: Երկրորդի դին էլ նոր հանեցին տղաները: Այնտեղ եղել են երկու մարդ եւ երկուսն էլ զոհվել են:»,- լրագրողներին ասաց նախարարը` շարունակելով. - «Ես կարծում եմ, որ փաստի առիթով արդեն ոստիկանությունը հարուցել է քրեական գործ… Ոստիկանությունը կհայտնի, թե ինչ է եղել… համապատասխան գնահատական կտա»:

Հարցին, թե ինչ էր արտադրվում այդ արտադրամասում, Արմեն Երիցյանը արձագանքեց. - «Դեռ պարզ չէ ինչ է արտադրվել: Քանի որ ոստիկանության տղաները այնտեղ արդեն աշխատանք են կատարում, շատ կարճ ժամանակում փորձագետները կասեն պայթյունը ինչի հետեւանքով է եղել»:

Հարցին, թե ինչից են մահացել Մարտիրոսյանն ու Բարսամյանը, նախարարի պատասխանեց. - «Փլուզվել է, քարերի տակ էին մնացել իրենք: Երեւի դրանից էլ հենց մահացել են»:

Նախարարը չմանրամասնեց, թե այդ մասնաշենքում ինչ արտադրամաս էր գործում, սակայն հաստատեց, որ դեպքի վայր էր ժամանել նաեւ Պաշտպանության նախարար Սեյրան Օհանյանը:

«Պաշտպանության նախարարը այստեղ եղել է, որովհետեւ պաշտպանության նախարարությունը նույնպես պայմանագիր ունի, լիցենզիայով այստեղ որոշակի բաներ է արտադրվում», - ասաց Երիցյանը:

Դեպքի վայրում էր նաեւ Ոստիկանության գլխավոր քննչական վարչության պետ Վահագն Հարությունյանը:

Հարցին` կա՞ն նախնական վարկածներ, թե ինչը կարող էր պայթյունի պատճառ դառնալ, Հարությունյանը պատասխանեց. - «Այս պահի դրությամբ չկան»:

Նոր պայթյունի վտանգ, նրա խոսքով` այս պահին չկա. - «Դրա համար կգան մասնագետներ, կստուգեն` այդ ամեն ինչը բացառելու համար: Երբ անվտանգ լինի, գործողությունները կվերջացնենք, ձեզ էլ տեղեկատվություն կտրամադրենք»:

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Some links:

http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/101958/

http://rt.com/politics/gabala-radar-russia-baku-nato-095/

http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/politics/26990.html

We are not supposed to post Azeri media links, but if you google "Gabala radar station dinosaur museum" and click on the first news.az link, you will find their pessimism about reaching a deal.

You can post Azeri media links. What you should not do is hyperlink them. For example, both the following links are the same except the first one is hyperlinked while the other is not http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/101958/ vs panarmenian.net/eng/news/101958/

I should also mention an International Crisis Group (ICG) analysis which claimed that 2012-2013 might be the years when the the possibility of the war breaking out may be to its closest. Their scenario reads something along these lines: after 2011 oil production and thus oil exports will decrease. Subsequently, the Azeri government will have less money to spend on social programs, which may lead to dramatic social upheavals, at which point the Azeri government may want to divert public's attention by initiating military activities in Nagorno-Karabakh. (I'm not sure that I agree with such a scenario, though it's a pont worth mentioning).

I think that this is a very likely possibility. It's a classic rally the population behind the regime tactic that seeks to divert attention to social problems to external "problems." Aliyev will go "all-in" because he will simply have no choice. And he and his country will pay the price for it.

Invaluable chart my friend, great stuff. Will pass this around if you do not mind.

PS: how can I embed this image rather than show a link? Thanks.

Simply copy the image location and place the copied URL between [img][/img].

[davidoga]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

You can post Azeri media links. What you should not do is hyperlink them. For example, both the following links are the same except the first one is hyperlinked while the other is not http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/101958/ vs panarmenian.net/eng/news/101958/

Simply copy the image location and place the copied URL between [img][/img].

But if you don't hyperlink, then you have to copy+paste the URL into the address bar. So what difference does it make?

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

But if you don't hyperlink, then you have to copy+paste the URL into the address bar. So what difference does it make?

Improvise with your Azeri sources You can just say it's from apa.az for example like burjuin does. It's the clickability and the link it creates to this website that's the problem, we all visit the websites on our own from browsers.

[davidoga]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Improvise with your Azeri sources You can just say it's from apa.az for example like burjuin does. It's the clickability and the link it creates to this website that's the problem, we all visit the websites on our own from browsers.

Okay, no problem

[matrixfighter]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I understand that the policy of not linking to Azeri websites is part of the "online warfare" and we all have to do our bits (actually http://khosq.com , an Armenian version of Digg, was created for that purpose - people share news and thus automatically give links to Armenian news sources, and therefore boost Armenian presence in Google searches) - you definitely don't want to give free Search Engine Optimization (SEO) to AZnet. One way to avoid this is to tell the forum coders to add rel="nofollow" to all external link templates. (I'm actually surprised that this forum doesn't do that). But Google's bots are pretty smart these days: they can read and recognise panarmenian.net/eng/news/101958/ just as well as www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/101958/ and some argue that even "nofollow" links pass link juice ... Anyways... moving on.
---------------------
Does anyone know what was produced in that department of "Electron" factory where the explosion happened? Seyran Ohanyan promptly arriving at the scene, might mean that that factory is producing something important.
------------------------
@federate

I think that this is a very likely possibility. It's a classic rally the population behind the regime tactic that seeks to divert attention to social problems to external "problems." Aliyev will go "all-in" because he will simply have no choice. And he and his country will pay the price for it.

Yes, I agree - it's a classic rally the population behind the regime tactic (I should also add and emphasise "in the context of population which primarily demands exactly that"), but the case of Aliyev's regime is a bit more nuanced. Ilham is a businessman. If Ilham was *absolutely* sure that he could retake Artsakh in less than a week without seriously damaging his business reputation, he would have already initiated the war. But the stakes of starting it and loosing the war, or even, starting and not succeeding, are very high. One of the points of alert should be when Ilham replaces Safar Abiyev with someone more capable and someone who enjoys a lot more credibility within their armed forces. If the deal over Israel being granted access to Azeri airfields is true, I'd say that's another point of alert (Alieyv will need conditions of minimised media attention, while the Western public is being entertained by Iran bombings). Aliyev will also need Turkey's guarantees of various types of assistance, and Erdoghan is not really on board.

Invaluable chart my friend, great stuff. Will pass this around if you do not mind.

I don't mind, eghbayr. Spread the knowledge.

----------------------------------
@davidoga
Thanks davidoga. I still think that some kind of deal between Armenia and Russia might be taking place, although under wraps. After all, if you were Russian government what would you rather have: pay $300mln-per-year for the next 15 years plus the hefty pricetag of refurbishment, or construct a new and more capable station in Armenia (somewhere in high peaks of Syunik) for $150mln?

With regards to Israel-Azerbaijan connection, yes, I'm refering to "Foreign Policy" journal article (very reputable journal), and I'd say there's a good reason to trust its sources, unless US is wanting to create extra headache for Azerbaijan.

The point about Azerbaijan's spending after 2013-2014, was in the context of "IF" Armenia acquired Iskander-E (280km radius) and a whole lot more Tochka-U missiles, which would in turn be a game-chager as it would drag Azerbaijan into the kind of arms race that it might not be able to affrord after 2013-2014 (unless the agreement over the trans-Caspian gas pipeline is reached, and Iran joins into the gas supplying stream and Nabucco gets a green light, chances of which are quite bleak).

The peak oil theory refers to the global oil production when you combine the output of all of the oilfields together. The physical nature of all oil fields is the same: you drill a hole and the oil busts (due to internal pressure), but after a while it becomes more difficult (and therefore, more costly) to extract more oil - you have to spend more cash and more energy to actually suck it out of the ground. That's when techniques like "water injection" etc come in. After a while the costs of extraction reach a point where it is no longer economically feasable. So many oil wells around the world are abandoned not because there's no more oil left in them, but because it is no longer economically feesible to extract it. Azerbaijan is already one of those countries where oil extraction (and transportation) comes at a hefty pricetag of $40/bbl (check out the link provided on http://khosq.com/en-us/article/2008/...extracting_oil ). Therefore, given that 78% of Azeri economy is based on oil production, the question is not so much whether Azerbaijan will run out of oil, but at which point SOFAZ's share of oil export profits becomes insufficient in sustaining it's milltary budget growth.

That being said, one must also take a lot of other factors into account which are not shown in that chart: oil price rises, revenues from SOFAZ's share in gas exports to Georgia and Turkey, returns from industries that were just started using this money (after all, having $18bln in reserves is not a pocket change, although it's often spent in a very stupid manner).

There's also a theory in international relations, which stupulates that sudden excessive spending on military is a recepie for a political disaster, as it later potentially destabilises the the country internally. Think of examples of many African and Middle Eastern dictatorships in 1970s. Many such regimes were encouraged by the imperialist to follow this pattern which eventually would later place the country in a situation of dependence. Hyped up military budget is way to feed forces that would otherwise turn against you. In countries with poor records of accountability, the trend is that once you increase the military budget, it then becomes politically challeging and dangerous to decrease it. Figuratively speaking, once the officers get shiny boots made of leather, next year they will not settle for anything less. So you end up spending a larger portion of the GDP on military. To use a simple analogy: imagine suddenly inherriting a large sum of money in the savings account and spending it on something addictive like crack-cocaine. This trend can already be observed in Azerbaijan in this year's budget, whereby it increased its budget only slightly, but the percentage of GDP spent on military nearly doubled.

[davidoga]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I understand that the policy of not linking to Azeri websites is part of the "online warfare" and we all have to do our bits (actually http://khosq.com , an Armenian version of Digg, was created for that purpose - people share news and thus automatically give links to Armenian news sources, and therefore boost Armenian presence in Google searches) - you definitely don't want to give free Search Engine Optimization (SEO) to AZnet. One way to avoid this is to tell the forum coders to add rel="nofollow" to all external link templates. (I'm actually surprised that this forum doesn't do that). But Google's bots are pretty smart these days: they can read and recognise panarmenian.net/eng/news/101958/ just as well as www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/101958/ and some argue that even "nofollow" links pass link juice ... Anyways... moving on.
---------------------
Does anyone know what was produced in that department of "Electron" factory where the explosion happened? Seyran Ohanyan promptly arriving at the scene, might mean that that factory is producing something important.
------------------------
@federate

Yes, I agree - it's a classic rally the population behind the regime tactic (I should also add and emphasise "in the context of population which primarily demands exactly that"), but the case of Aliyev's regime is a bit more nuanced. Ilham is a businessman. If Ilham was *absolutely* sure that he could retake Artsakh in less than a week without seriously damaging his business reputation, he would have already initiated the war. But the stakes of starting it and loosing the war, or even, starting and not succeeding, are very high. One of the points of alert should be when Ilham replaces Safar Abiyev with someone more capable and someone who enjoys a lot more credibility within their armed forces. If the deal over Israel being granted access to Azeri airfields is true, I'd say that's another point of alert (Alieyv will need conditions of minimised media attention, while the Western public is being entertained by Iran bombings). Aliyev will also need Turkey's guarantees of various types of assistance, and Erdoghan is not really on board.


I don't mind, eghbayr. Spread the knowledge.

----------------------------------
@davidoga
Thanks davidoga. I still think that some kind of deal between Armenia and Russia might be taking place, although under wraps. After all, if you were Russian government what would you rather have: pay $300mln-per-year for the next 15 years plus the hefty pricetag of refurbishment, or construct a new and more capable station in Armenia (somewhere in high peaks of Syunik) for $150mln?

With regards to Israel-Azerbaijan connection, yes, I'm refering to "Foreign Policy" journal article (very reputable journal), and I'd say there's a good reason to trust its sources, unless US is wanting to create extra headache for Azerbaijan.

The point about Azerbaijan's spending after 2013-2014, was in the context of "IF" Armenia acquired Iskander-E (280km radius) and a whole lot more Tochka-U missiles, which would in turn be a game-chager as it would drag Azerbaijan into the kind of arms race that it might not be able to affrord after 2013-2014 (unless the agreement over the trans-Caspian gas pipeline is reached, and Iran joins into the gas supplying stream and Nabucco gets a green light, chances of which are quite bleak).

The peak oil theory refers to the global oil production when you combine the output of all of the oilfields together. The physical nature of all oil fields is the same: you drill a hole and the oil busts (due to internal pressure), but after a while it becomes more difficult (and therefore, more costly) to extract more oil - you have to spend more cash and more energy to actually suck it out of the ground. That's when techniques like "water injection" etc come in. After a while the costs of extraction reach a point where it is no longer economically feasable. So many oil wells around the world are abandoned not because there's no more oil left in them, but because it is no longer economically feesible to extract it. Azerbaijan is already one of those countries where oil extraction (and transportation) comes at a hefty pricetag of $40/bbl (check out the link provided on http://khosq.com/en-us/article/2008/...extracting_oil ). Therefore, given that 78% of Azeri economy is based on oil production, the question is not so much whether Azerbaijan will run out of oil, but at which point SOFAZ's share of oil export profits becomes insufficient in sustaining it's milltary budget growth.

That being said, one must also take a lot of other factors into account which are not shown in that chart: oil price rises, revenues from SOFAZ's share in gas exports to Georgia and Turkey, returns from industries that were just started using this money (after all, having $18bln in reserves is not a pocket change, although it's often spent in a very stupid manner).

There's also a theory in international relations, which stupulates that sudden excessive spending on military is a recepie for a political disaster, as it later potentially destabilises the the country internally. Think of examples of many African and Middle Eastern dictatorships in 1970s. Many such regimes were encouraged by the imperialist to follow this pattern which eventually would later place the country in a situation of dependence. Hyped up military budget is way to feed forces that would otherwise turn against you. In countries with poor records of accountability, the trend is that once you increase the military budget, it then becomes politically challeging and dangerous to decrease it. Figuratively speaking, once the officers get shiny boots made of leather, next year they will not settle for anything less. So you end up spending a larger portion of the GDP on military. To use a simple analogy: imagine suddenly inherriting a large sum of money in the savings account and spending it on something addictive like crack-cocaine. This trend can already be observed in Azerbaijan in this year's budget, whereby it increased its budget only slightly, but the percentage of GDP spent on military nearly doubled.

If I was the Russian government, I'd keep an important radar station in my territory so as not to be screwed if my priorities in the South Caucus change. That being said, as an Armenian of course I would love for a potentially security-increasing complex to be built in Hayastan

I completely agree about the necessity of arms-building. So in other words, we have to hope for more investment in Russian defense companies, which produces newer weapons for Russia, and in turn Russia will pass on their "old" stuff (Iskanders, Totchkas, BTRs, maybe some MiG 29s or SU-35s).

In regards to the other factors you listed, I do not believe that there will be another shift in long-run aggregate supply of oil. There may be supply shocks, but they will pass quickly. As you may know, Saudi Arabia (or OPEC in general) promised to increase output if sh*t goes down with Iran. And if you know anything about cartels (especially in the oil industry) they have a dramitc effect on price. Also, I remember reading this year that there were some pretty big oil field dicoveries in Kazakhstan. In summary, ther won't be any significant price increase.

Quick correction: I think you meant SOCAR's share in gas exports, as SOFAZ is not a company per se.

Again, I agree with you about this military spending cycle. What makes the habit even more destructive, IMO, is when they spend money on things that don't matter at all. That's why I got excited when Azerbaijan hosted Eurovison this year and began building the potentially "tallest building in the world": because they're just pissing away their petrodollars.

[matrixfighter]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I think you meant SOCAR's share in gas exports, as SOFAZ is not a company per se.

Yes. I stand corrected. SOCAR is the company that owns 10% of ACG field, 25% of BTC pipeline and other assets. SOFAZ is the state run fund (under direct control of El Presidente) which is the recepient of SOCAR's export profits.

The tallest building in the world ("Azerbaijan Tower") and the Khazar Islands is a project that is proposed by a private firm, which aims to raise the money primarily from external sources while the construction is taking place. What will happen to the construction process if the idea doesn't catch on with foreign investors? Well, I guess SOFAZ will have to come in and bail them out. And so the story continues: Azerbaijan spends $315mln on a 14km road ($23,000,000/km), while Arcax (through donations from Hayastan fund) constructs a 168km highway for $25mln ($150,000/km).

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

@Federate, @Spetsnaz and @davidogha, Thank you for a warm welcome for the forum!

I'm not ready to share that article in its entirety yet. Another factor to note is that that article was addressing the realities of 2008 and a LOT has changed since then. But as I go along via my posts in this thread I will be sharing some bits of it, hopefully with updated information.

Ohanyan's reforms have had both positive and negative elements. What I'm mostly disappointed by (unless I'm wrong and missing any information) is that the K-3 riffle project has still not entered the mass-production stage. Being not just a landlocked country, but also facing a double blockage, there are numerous security issues that it should address as a matter of priority:
A) energy security,
B) food security, and
C) domestic military industrial complex,
D) population growth policy .
E) effective multiple lines of communication with the front lines

The evolution of oligarchy has seriously hampered the development of the first two (but I'm not going to talk about that). The development of domestic weapons manufacturing was largely left to the private sector, which led to some interesting and fruitful projects, but I would want to see more proactive governmental initiatives in this sphere, especially in the manufacturing of small arms, bulletproof vests (especially the ones using nano technologies), mortars and anti-tank and anti-aircraft rocketry.

The development of a domestically produced rifle around 5.45x39mm round should, in my opinion, should occupy a high priority placement. This rifle should be as reliable and as easy to operate as AK-74, and have a precision and effective range to match the British SA-80s and the Israeli Tavor TAR-21. From what I've heard the K-3 rifle was exactly that.

Contemporary battlefield is not just about firepower, but also about the "politics of statistics", and the psychological role that they play (Azeris still can't get over the 6:1 ratio). But the AK-47 was designed to address the realities of WW2 type of warfare: loads of people (mobilised from general population and often not having much training) firing as many bullets as possible. In Vietnam it proved superior to M16 because of the muddy and humid conditions and also because the Vietnamese had an interesting tactic of trying to get as close to the enemy positions as possible (so that they are actually within the short effective range of the Kalashnkov). This tactic worked in the conditions of the jungle. But in case of open terrains and mountaneous terrains (such as that of Artsakh front line) a lot more precise riffle is needed.

Very well said, however you may want to add military aviation to your priority list.

regardless of how advanced an air defense system (yours or enemies) is you can still get through with right pilot......you be suprised how many of the problem in war can be solved with precision air strikes and how many lives of our soldiers can be saved on the ground. We could at least increase the number of our SU-25 jets and upgrading them for the missions ahead.

btw, welcome to the forum

[Vrej1915]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

WHY AZERBAIJAN HAS NOT RE-STARTED THE WAR YET, AND WHEN IT IS LIKELY TO DO SO?

That's a pretty significant disruption right there, because it takes time to fill the BTC pipeline again and to bring the production up to speed again. So imagine what kind of effect would a 2 week war in Artcax (with uncertain results) have. (we then see the production picking up again, but then there's another dent - the fire at one of the BP towers, which was revealed in Wikileaks).

Matrix, parov yess yegel.
1- I do not think, in any military scenario, a 2 weeks option is a serious one, unless you assume external huge pressure on both sides, that works.
Chances of such huge pressure, supposes a N1 priority for he US President at least.
And fortunately or not, all the Transcaucasus could burn in hell, it will never turn to such priority for the US, nor the EU.
2% of global oil will never be that vital.
Actually, apart from Russia, and Iran who will dance of Joy for the extra billions they will get by the surge of oil price, It may well be that the same BP, Statoil Shell, Total .... will be less than in a hurry to stop the blazes, provided we spare their production capacity/investments, for same extra cash they will get from their global capacities. The only losers would be Baku and insurance companies insuring the oil companies.....
( see behavior of these same, or so, in wars over Irak, Lybia, Iran/Irak...)

2/ Even in best military scenario in favor of Baku, they will need months to finish their job.
3/ Even in best scenario in our favor, we would need no less time to reach our goals: insure there will never be a third war against Azarbaijan.

4/ Im not sure, the problem is the stopping of the pipelines for a couple of weeks. That's nonsense on a strategic perspective. Every party (Baku/Oil Majors/Torkey) can afford stoping oil flow for a month, or even 3 months, if at the end the problem is resolved. (May be slight problematic for a shaky state like Georgia, but it counts for nuts, no one cares...)
I think the dissuasion does not come from a 8/8/8 scenario, (where the capacities are preserved), however long it may be, but by the very destruction of the infrastructure, and the high probability of never getting it operational again (ME oil history is full of these precedents)... And this may well be pretty annoying for Majors, and evidently lethal for Baku...