Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Iran and Russia all are at odds with Azerbaijan. So they are surrounded. All 3 of us could finish Azerbaijan in a week and the West would not do a thing, because they'd not want to get into conflict with Russia + Iran over Azerbaijan. Just like during Georgia war.

8 upgraded SU-25s stationed at Stepanakert take off fully loaded fly (map of the terrain/valleys) to Iran and land. In a a precise cordination Armenian ground forces start a attack towards Azerbaijan as a deversion. the SU-25s take off flying the coastline of the Caspian sea in tight formation without getting detected, destroy as much oil infrastructure possible in limited time (including oil riggs off shore), avoid Migs and Azeri air defence systems, continue north and land in Russia.

With this imaginery plan neither Russia or Iran needs to get their hands dirty.....all we need it permission to land.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Concerning defense infrastructure of the RA

well, RA's territory is too little to have a big airforce, there's no strategic depth. I think most bases will be smoked by ballistic and cuirse missles the first few days anyway.
We need to focus on liberating more lands. It's a big deal. Then we can think about a capable airforce.
Look at israel now for example, they've even smaller territory than us, and sure they have the meditarainian sea where they can exercise and attack lebanon or egypt from, and the sinai is a defacto-buffer zone, with no military in it, that helps too.
But in the long run, against a capable airforce and cruise/balistic missles, they're screwed too without strategic depth.
so relying on russian airforce as a "deturrent" works better than us having a major airforce, since they'd need to deal with russia incase of attack.
until someday we grow 10x the size of current territory, maybe we can talk about a capable and _survivable_ airforce.

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

so relying on russian airforce as a "deturrent" works better than us having a major airforce, since they'd need to deal with russia incase of attack.
until someday we grow 10x the size of current territory, maybe we can talk about a capable and _survivable_ airforce.

You got it backwards....without growing OUR Airforce we cannot liberate more land.

btw, Israel will be screwed without its air power.

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Wings over Armenia....flight of two.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

btw, Israel will be screwed without its air power.

that's why they got nukes

what about my mig-29 question?

[ArmeniaSacra]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Guys it's been really interesting reading your analyses. (With some reservations regarding political issues being discussed here rather than military). I don't want to sound the least enthusiastic Armenian, but I think we should be more realistic about what our army is capable of doing.
At this point talking about "going all the way to Baku" is in least of the cases a childish dream, with or without a proper air force. Wars are not all about equipment. When we talk about reaching the Caspian, we're talking about 10s of thousands of kilometer squares of lands. Who the hell is going to control that? Our 50,000 active troops? You need half a million men to control such territory filled with enemy civilians!! You don't suggest we throw the 8 million Azeris living in Azerbaijan in the Caspian? Do you? (It'll pollute the Caspian and all the fish would die...poor fish)
Capturing Baku does not only need a Russian approval...It also needs an international approval, and is a mission that can only be carried out by a major power like Russia. It's both unrealistic and the terrain is impossible to maintained after capture...specially by us. (We're talking about years of occupation of an enemy territories crawling with enemy x-military personnel and inhospitable local residents)
And if we at some point capture these lands, and emtpied it of azeris...who's going to live in it? We're not even able to populate Karabakh let alone such a vast country.

In the next war I think our main mission should be to preserve our gains and capture some strategic heights to improve the defense of our final borders, since I believe the next war must end the Karabakh issue once and for all, and we need to establish better borders for Karabakh.
In my opinion the next war will be a very short one, probably not more than few weeks at most, since Russia will try to come out as a victor in the region through Armenia, and the west will want Azerbaijan to quit fooling around and continue the oil supplies. To realize this; our priority should be to provide our troops with as much air cover as possible to conquer the difficult terrain. For that, some upgraded Su-25s will do a good job, so will Mi-35s. In addition to this we need to boost our anti-aircraft capabilities with mobile units as the Buk-M1 or Tor-M1, such systems could also provide good air cover to our troops that, in my opinion, after absorbing the Azeri blitzkrieg must try to counter attack not by advancing into 100s of kms of enemy territory, rather than advance for a very few kilometers maybe just to take position on hilltops and mountain tops that could in the future become natural defense positions and naturally defended borders of NKR and Armenia.

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I wanted to ask you about this. How efficient will azeri mig-29s will be over artsakh? if we assume that they don't have any PGMs, how efficient will dummy bombing be over a little area such as artsakh by mig-29s? they've around 50 mig-29s, i doubt they'll just let them rot in reserve, they'll surely use them for whatever they can.
also, having in mind there's a S300-PS in Goris covering artsakh now, but that's entirely other topic i guess.

I am no expert but the Mig-29s would be useless over Artsakh to most degree, unless they get retrofited (Armenianized) to fly bomber and/or strategic ground strick mission.......use your speed fly in and out before the enemy can say "what was that".

I don't think Azerbaijan will risk its Migs in war over NKR.......over Armenia? you bet, they will use it. Again, this is just my opinion and I don't claim to be an expert in airial warfare.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Guys it's been really interesting reading your analyses. (With some reservations regarding political issues being discussed here rather than military). I don't want to sound the least enthusiastic Armenian, but I think we should be more realistic about what our army is capable of doing.
At this point talking about "going all the way to Baku" is in least of the cases a childish dream, with or without a proper air force. Wars are not all about equipment. When we talk about reaching the Caspian, we're talking about 10s of thousands of kilometer squares of lands. Who the hell is going to control that? Our 50,000 active troops? You need half a million men to control such territory filled with enemy civilians!! You don't suggest we throw the 8 million Azeris living in Azerbaijan in the Caspian? Do you? (It'll pollute the Caspian and all the fish would die...poor fish)
Capturing Baku does not only need a Russian approval...It also needs an international approval, and is a mission that can only be carried out by a major power like Russia. It's both unrealistic and the terrain is impossible to maintained after capture...specially by us. (We're talking about years of occupation of an enemy territories crawling with enemy x-military personnel and inhospitable local residents)
And if we at some point capture these lands, and emtpied it of azeris...who's going to live in it? We're not even able to populate Karabakh let alone such a vast country.

In the next war I think our main mission should be to preserve our gains and capture some strategic heights to improve the defense of our final borders, since I believe the next war must end the Karabakh issue once and for all, and we need to establish better borders for Karabakh.
In my opinion the next war will be a very short one, probably not more than few weeks at most, since Russia will try to come out as a victor in the region through Armenia, and the west will want Azerbaijan to quit fooling around and continue the oil supplies. To realize this; our priority should be to provide our troops with as much air cover as possible to conquer the difficult terrain. For that, some upgraded Su-25s will do a good job, so will Mi-35s. In addition to this we need to boost our anti-aircraft capabilities with mobile units as the Buk-M1 or Tor-M1, such systems could also provide good air cover to our troops that, in my opinion, after absorbing the Azeri blitzkrieg must try to counter attack not by advancing into 100s of kms of enemy territory, rather than advance for a very few kilometers maybe just to take position on hilltops and mountain tops that could in the future become natural defense positions and naturally defended borders of NKR and Armenia.

agree with you 100%. our current borders need some adjustment, specially tavush NKR is in a better shape though.

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I think what Armenia should aim for is not to take over Baku.....but to establih a border with Russia (surround Georgia).
It would not be a good idea for Armenia to start the war (I am against that), but in case of an attack from Azerbaijan into Armenia proper, now that is a different ball game, it would be justified.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I think what Armenia should aim for is not to take over Baku.....but to establih a border with Russia (surround Georgia).
It would not be a good idea for Armenia to start the war (I am against that), but in case of an attack from Azerbaijan into Armenia proper, now that is a different ball game, it would be justified.

The russian-azeri border is very mountainous, only paved highway is near the coast, which is too far for us. Qax/Zaqtala region is closer and would surround georgia, but it's mountainous, we'd need to dig a new roki tunnel