Armenia's plan B:

[ashot24]

Armenia’s Plan-B: Tilting towards Tehran
[ 2010/02/15 | 16:06 ]
Feature Stories politics
Anahit Shirinyan

Can Yerevan Play the “Iran Card” to its Advantage?

Yerevan’s official “shift” to Tehran clearly signified that Armenia has decided to put Plan-B into action. Given the unlikelihood of ratification in the current Armenian-Turkish deadlock, many in the Armenian government are mulling over the possibility of putting various back-up plans into effect.

At the end of January, former RoA President Robert Kocharyan visited Tehran at the invitation of Iranian Prime Minister Manouchehr Mottaki Mr. Kocharyan was received by Mottaki and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. According to Iranian press reports, Mr. Kocharyan discussed regional issues with his Iranian hosts. The Iranian press especially picked up on Mr. Kocharyan’s comment that the presence of foreign military forces in the region disrupted the peace and security of regional nations.

After Kocharyan’s visit, it was the turn of Iranian Prime Minister Mottaki to make an official visit to Yerevan. During his visit, bilateral cooperation was discussed, including economic and energy related projects. At the same time, there was a meeting in Yerevan of the trilateral (Armenian, Iranian and Russian) working group dealing with the construction of the Iran-Armenia railway. At the meeting, Sergei Tugarinov, Deputy Director of Russian Transport Ministry’s Department for Railway Transportation, said that Russia considers the possibility of including the Iran-Armenia railway within the existing international transport corridors, particularly the North-South corridor.

Moscow’s stake in the Iran-Armenia railway

While true that the Russians will announce it final decision only after completion of technical and economic feasibility studies, we must remember that until recently it was the Iran-Azerbaijan-Russia railway project that had greater potential to be included in the North-South transport corridor.

At the same meeting, it was also announced that The Asian Development Bank had allocated $1 million for technical and economic studies regarding the Iranian-Armenian railway. In addition to its economic significance, this railway project has important political significance as well. When we take into account regional developments, this significance grows even larger. Due to the Armenian-Turkish deadlock, the north-south (Moscow, Yerevan, Tehran) axis is again being set in motion. Economic and energy projects constitute its external base.

Each of the three nations involved in the reactivation of the Iran-Armenia-Russia axis has its reasons for this to happen. Moscow, for example, despite encouraging Armenian-Turkish rapprochement, is set on being included in any and all alternative regional projects.

Russia can only benefit from cooperation between Armenia and Iran. The developing Russo-Turkish partnership (against the backdrop of sharpening Turkish-U.S. relations), as well as Russian-Iranian cooperation and greater participation in Armenia-Iranian projects, only serves to strengthen Moscow’s position in the region while at the same time squeezing the West out.

Iran seeks status as regional player; once again

However, this new “move” between Yerevan and Tehran isn’t merely confined to economic projects having political significance. Recently, Iran has proposed its mediation of the Karabakh conflict with more frequency.

And, despite the fact that all concerned realize how unrealistic such mediation is, by getting more active in the issue, Iran resolves some of its own problems and those of Armenia. First, Iran is attempting to get back into the “regional game” from which it was involuntarily forced out as a result of the 2008 Russian-Georgian war and subsequent developments. At the same time, by taking this step, Tehran again enters into competition with Ankara, which also is daily making greater demands to be included in the Karabakh conflict settlement process. Thus, Iran is declaring that it too is a regional superpower, just as Turkey.

Iran’s posturing to play a mediating role also works to the benefit of Armenia, since it evidently cancels out any Turkish ambitions to do the same regarding Karabakh. What results is the conclusion that Turkey has the same potential for influencing a settlement to the Karabakh issue as does Iran.

Reemergence of Tehran-Yerevan-Moscow Axis

The setting into motion of the Tehran-Yerevan-Moscow axis also affords another dividend to Armenia vis-a-vis the West – presumably it coaxes the West to exert pressure on Ankara designed to ensure the logical outcome of the Armenia-Turkish reconciliation process.

It is clear that the future development of this axis will inexorably lead to the regional status-quo that existed before the 2008 Russian-Georgian war, but with the difference that this time around the traditional bloc in opposition (the Baku, Tbilisi, Ankara alliance) will be all the more weaker. The reason is that Tbilisi can no longer be considered a reliable ally and due to the cracks in the Baku-Ankara alliance. All this is unacceptable to the West which daily become more convinced that Armenian-Turkish rapprochement is the only possible way to avert such developments.

The other important aim of Armenia is to divert attention away from the Karabakh conflict settlement process and to thus prevent pressure being exerted on the negotiating parties to make concessions and register progress.

Thus, it becomes evident, that official Yerevan is putting Plan-B into action given the impasse in Armenian-Turkish rapprochement and the Karabakh conflict negotiations. Plan-B involves deepening cooperation with Iran and to thus make it clear which way Armenia will turn if Turkish preconditions and pressure regarding Karabakh continue.

The question remains just how successful Yerevan will be with activating Plan-B. Nevertheless, given the launch of the process, it’s an opportune opportunity to reassess Armenian-Iranian relations; to convert them from a replacement strategy into a strategic partnership.

http://hetq.am/en/politics/plan-b/

[Hye]

Re: Armenia's plan B:

very nice article and analysis thanks Ashod I agree with all she says but I think this shouldn't be a plan-B but part of the plan-A itself because I think we should initiate closer rlations with Iran even if Turkish-Armenian borders are open first for economic diversification and second for military reasons. As we know Armenia has no borders with Russia and in case of a war, GOD FORBID, in Karabakh our only way to get much needed weapons is still through Georgia and we all know georgians. So it is extremely important to have rail linkage with Iran to have another way to get the weaopns via Caspian Sea through Iran bearing in mind the moutainous terrain of Syunik and the lack of good transportation system.

[Mos]

Re: Armenia's plan B:

No this is not good plan. Iran is very unstable and there may be regime change or even war in the near future. Doing business with them will just ruin our relations with the rest of world. We should instead look toward EU and not be looking to increase cooperation with more backward countries.

[KarotheGreat]

Re: Armenia's plan B:

No this is not good plan. Iran is very unstable and there may be regime change or even war in the near future. Doing business with them will just ruin our relations with the rest of world. We should instead look toward EU and not be looking to increase cooperation with more backward countries.

Ooh please, a regime change? Who are you trying to fool here? I for one don't want to see a regime change. The regime that is in power right now is good for Armenia and is a reliable trade partner.
And I got to say xxxx the world, Armenia should look at it's interest. What has the rest of the world done for us that we care what they think about us. Iran is an ally of Armenia and till now it has been a good and reliable ally. And for your information Armenia should never look at the EU, because the Eu is becoming a really country and I for one don't want to see Armenia lose it's independance again. The level of relation we've got with EU is goo enough.
And trade with Eu is to hard we don't share a border, it's more lucrative to trade with Iran who is next door then to relay at a power far a way that doesn't give a xxxx about us and what happens to us.

[Parskahay]

Re: Armenia's plan B:

thank god there is no one like mos in government or armenia will be doomed to oblivion without a strong friend as its neighbor.armenia and iran both have their benefits from this trade and friendship.iranian students come and study in armenia.iran gains population among its people by helping armenia.and many more benefits.but EU dont give a fcuk about us they just like us because we are christian.if we were muslim and azerbaijan were christian then EU would probably support them
open your mind and your eyes as i did.no matter how much i hate iran's politics but we need them in these dark times.

[Mos]

Re: Armenia's plan B:

thank god there is no one like mos in government or armenia will be doomed to oblivion without a strong friend as its neighbor.armenia and iran both have their benefits from this trade and friendship.iranian students come and study in armenia.iran gains population among its people by helping armenia.and many more benefits.but EU dont give a fcuk about us they just like us because we are christian.if we were muslim and azerbaijan were christian then EU would probably support them
open your mind and your eyes as i did.no matter how much i hate iran's politics but we need them in these dark times.

First of all, Armenia to Iran is a country to use, they much rather be allies with more powerful nations such as Russia. Second of all, Iran is a backward country who has no economy and because of all those sanctions have a crippled economy. Why do you want to do work with a crippled economy and a unstable government?

Iranian students in Armenia? Most Iranians coming to university in Armenia don't come for education but come for pleasures which they can't get in their oppressive state, let's be real here.

These are not dark times for us, dark times for us were early 90's where these was no heat or electricity in Armenia. We need to open up to European investments instead of Iranian. There is much more promise with Europe than failing Iran. And we are already doing that. Our trade with EU is much more than with Iran, and EU has more say in our politics than Iran (thank God).

[Armanen]

Re: Armenia's plan B:

Mos, you should read about the financial crisis that is threatening the very foundations of the eu. If things continue as they have, the eu will become a failed experiment.

[Muhaha]

Re: Armenia's plan B:

Armenia should obviuosly have good relations with as many nations as possible and that include Iran. They should do business and trade and keep good ties, but there are a lot of Armenians that pretend Iran is some sort of really really good friend for the R.O.A and that's just silly, Iran is like every other country that's looking out for itself and will dump Armenia when it needs to.

That's why Plan-A of the ROA should be to be as independent as possible, be friends with everybody and at the same time make sure not to be dependent on any one country for anything.

[Hye]

Re: Armenia's plan B:

People let's get outside the braiwashing weestern media logic and try to think about our intrests. We are small country we cannot persue our intrests alone but we have a good room to manuver we must take all our chances.
Iran is a backward country? So is Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan in some cases even much worse but USA and others are allies to those countries and cooperate because they have intrests why shouldn't we do the same? Start to see the reality already stop living in dreams. last year we had NEGATIVE 15% GDP growth. We are landlock country with 70% of our bordrs closed what are you sugesting impose a third blockade on ourseelves? We can't stablish relations with Turkey becahse OH NO THEY ARE TURKS we can't have relations with Azerbaijan because there is Karabakh we can't stablish relations with Iran because they are backward we can't stablish Relations with Georgia because of Djavakhk what the hell are we supposed to do?

We are looking towards EU and we are having economic plitical cultural ties with EU what the hell this has to do with trading with Iran? Iran has crippled economy? what do we have? Iran is a huge country with huge population with sea why shouldn't we use this? If we have the ability to sell electricity to Iran why should we hesitate?

Just like Armenia is a country for Iran to use Iran is a country for us to use as well. If anone thinks it isn't dark time now for Armenia you are mistaken we are not as we were in the 90's but we are still in dark times because of the econokic crisis when I see our economy registring growth then I would say the dark times are behind us besides even if a country is doing great we must use every oportunity to do better.

I talked about the importance of a railway that is being planned now I would like to point out together with economic gains there is a crutial millitary gain that we must not ignore and we must weigh it well before dismissing it. I think although there are risks this railway must be constructed it is of the benifite of Armenia. Im sure the west will understand very well just like they are understanding in case of the nuclear power plant Armenians position is clear and straight forward give uternatives and we'd see what to do. The only problem I see is a war that would stop the implemetation of the project. But the same problem was tehre in Georgia when they constructed the pipelines and started to construct the the railway and it seems it will be implemeted. risk a little you will gain a little risk a lot and you will gain alot.